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At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA Perspective and Modeling of Thermal Runaway Propagation Mitigation in Aerospace Batteries

NASA has traditionally sought to reduce the likelihood of a single cell thermal runaway (TR) in their aerospace batteries to an absolute minimum by employing rigorous screening program of the cells. There was generally a belief that TR propagation resulting in catastrophic failure of the battery was a forgone conclusion for densely packed aerospace lithium-ion batteries. As it turns out, this may not be the case. An increasing number of purportedly TR propagation-resistant batteries are appearing among NASA partners in the commercial sector and the Department of Defense. In the recent update of the battery safety standard (JSC 20793) to address this paradigm shift, the NASA community included requirements for assessing TR severity and identifying simple, low-cost severity reduction measures. Unfortunately, there are no best-practice guidelines for this work in the Agency, so the first project team attempting to meet these requirements would have an undue burden placed upon them. A NASA engineering Safety Center (NESC) team set out to perform pathfinding activities for meeting those requirements. This presentation will provide contextual background to this effort, as well as initial results in attempting to model and simulate TR heat transfer and propagation within battery designs.

safety↗

Electrolyte management considerations in modern nickel hydrogen and nickel cadmium cell and battery designs

In the early 1980's the NASA Lewis group addressed the topic of designing nickel hydrogen cells for LEO applications. As published in 1984, the design addressed the topics of gas management, liquid management, plate expansion, and the recombination of oxygen during overcharge. This design effort followed principles set forth in an earlier Lewis paper that addressed the topic of pore size engineering. At about that same time, the beneficial effect on cycle life of lower electrolyte concentrations was verified by Hughes Aircraft as part of a Lewis funded study. A succession of life cycle tests of these concepts have been carried out that essentially verified all of this earlier work. During these past two decades, some of the mysteries involved in the active material of the nickel electrode have been resolved by careful research efforts carried out at several laboratories. At The Aerospace Corporation, Dr. Zimmerman has been developing a sophisticated model of an operating nickel hydrogen cell which will be used to model certain mechanisms that have contributed to premature failures in nickel hydrogen and nickel cadmium cells. During the course of trying to understand and model abnormal nickel hydrogen cell behaviors, we have noted that not enough attention has been paid to the potassium ion content in these cells, and more recently batteries. Several of these phenomenon have been well known in the area of alkaline fuel cells, but only recently have they been examined as they might impact alkaline cell designs. This paper will review three general areas where the potassium ion content can impact the performance and life of nickel hydrogen and nickel cadmium devices, Once these phenomenon are understood conceptually, the impact of potassium content on a potential cell design can be evaluated with the aid of an accurate model of an operating cell or battery. All three of these areas are directly related to the volume tolerance and pore size engineering aspects of the components used in the cell or battery design: (1) The gamma phase uptake of potassium ion can result in a lowering of the electrolyte concentration. This leads to a higher electrolyte resistance as well as electrolyte diffusional limitations on the discharge rate. This phenomenon will also impact the response of the cell to a reconditioning cycle. (2) The impact of low level shunt currents in multi-cell con figurations will result in the movement of potassium ion from one part of the battery to another. This will impact the electrolyte volume/vapor pressure relationships within the cell or battery. (3) The transport of water vapor from place to place under the driving force of a tempetature gradient has already impacted cells for the case where water vapor is condensed on a colder cell wall. The paper will explore the convective and diffusive movement of gases saturated with water vapor from a warmer plate pack to a cooler one - both with and without liquid communication.

Thaller, L. H.↗

The application of electrochemical impedance spectroscopy for characterizing the degradation of Ni(OH)2/NiOOH electrodes

Electrochemical impedance spectra of rolled and bonded and sintered porous nickel battery electrodes were recorded periodically during charge/discharge cycling in concentrated KOH solution at various temperatures. A transmission line model (TLM) was adopted to represent the impedance of the porous electrodes, and various model parameters were adjusted in a curve fitting routine to reproduce the experimental impedances. Degradation processes for rolled and bonded electrodes were deduced from changes in model parameters with electrode cycling time. In developing the TLM, impedance spectra of planar (non-porous) electrodes were used to represent the pore wall and backing plate interfacial impedances. These data were measured over a range of potentials and temperatures, and an equivalent circuit model was adopted to represent the planar electrode data. Cyclic voltammetry was used to study the characteristics of the oxygen evolution reaction on planar nickel electrodes during charging, since oxygen evolution can affect battery electrode charging efficiency and ultimately electrode cycle life if the overpotential for oxygen evolution is sufficiently low. Transmission line modeling results suggest that porous rolled and bonded nickel electrodes undergo restructuring during charge/discharge cycling prior to failure.

Macdonald, D. D.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, July 2013

Dielectrophoresis-Based Particle Sensor Using Nanoelectrode Arrays; Multi-Dimensional Damage Detection for Surfaces and Structures; ULTRA: Underwater Localization for Transit and Reconnaissance Autonomy; Autonomous Cryogenic Leak Detector for Improving Launch Site Operations; Submillimeter Planetary Atmospheric Chemistry Exploration Sounder; Method for Reduction of Silver Biocide Plating on Metal Surfaces; Silicon Micromachined Microlens Array for THz Antennas; Forward-Looking IED Detector Ground Penetrating Radar; Fully Printed, Flexible, Phased Array Antenna for Lunar Surface Communication, Battery Charge Equalizer with Transformer Array; An Efficient, Highly Flexible Multi-Channel Digital Downconverter Architecture; Dimmable Electronic Ballast for a Gas Discharge Lamp; Conductive Carbon Nanotube Inks for Use with Desktop Inkjet Printing Technology; Enhanced Schapery Theory Software Development for Modeling Failure of Fiber-Reinforced Laminates; High-Performance, Low-Temperature-Operating, Long-Lifetime Aerospace Lubricants; Carbon Nanotube Microarrays Grown on Nanoflake Substrates; Differential Muon Tomography to Continuously Monitor Changes in the Composition of Subsurface Fluids; Microgravity Drill and Anchor System; 20 Granular Media-Based Tunable Passive Vibration Suppressor; 21 Miga Aero Actuator and 2D Machined Mechanical Binary Latch; Micro-XRF for In Situ Geological Exploration of Other Planets; Hydrogen-Enhanced Lunar Oxygen Extraction and Storage Using Only Solar Power; Uplift of Ionospheric Oxygen Ions During Extreme Magnetic Storms; Miniaturized, High-Speed, Modulated X-Ray Source; Hollow-Fiber Spacesuit Water Membrane Evaporator 25 High-Power Single-Mode 2.65-micrometers InGaAsSb/AlInGaAsSb Diode Lasers; Optical Device for Converting a Laser Beam Into Two Co-aligned but Oppositely Directed Beams; A Hybrid Fiber/Solid-State Regenerative Amplifier with Tunable Pulse Widths for Satellite Laser Ranging; X-Ray Diffractive Optics; SynGenics Optimization System (SynOptSys); 29 CFD Script for Rapid TPS Damage Assessment; radEq Add-On Module for CFD Solver Loci-CHEM; Science Opportunity Analyzer (SOA) Version 8; 30 Autonomous Byte Stream Randomizer; Distributed Engine Control Empirical/Analytical Verification Tools; Dynamic Server-Based KML Code Generator Method for Level-of-Detail Traversal of Geospatial Data; Automated Planning of Science Products Based on Nadir Overflights and Alerts for Onboard and Ground Processing; Linked Autonomous Interplanetary Satellite Orbit Navigation; Risk-Constrained Dynamic Programming for Optimal Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing; Scheduling Operations for Massive Heterogeneous Clusters; Deepak Condenser Model (DeCoM); Flight Software Math Library; Recirculating 1-K-Pot for Pulse-Tube Cryostats; 35 Method for Processing Lunar Regolith Using Microwaves; Wells for In Situ Extraction of Volatiles from Regolith (WIEVR); and Estimating the Backup Reaction Wheel Orientation Using Reaction Wheel Spin Rates Flight Telemetry from a Spacecraft.

Source record↗

Brief Overview of Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept and Trade Space Exploration

The SUSAN concept uses a 20-megawatt Electrified Aircraft Propulsion system to enable advance Propulsion Airframe Integration in transport category aircraft. Alternative fuels will be used to reduce the amount of emissions per energy used. By combining these features there is the potential to reduce aircraft emissions by 50 percent per passenger/mile while retaining the size, speed, and range of large regional jets. The SUSAN is has a 750-mile economic mission, a 2500-mile design range and a maximum capacity of 180 passengers. The SUSAN configuration utilizes a single aft mounted engine and distributed electric wing-mounted thrusters on a tube and wing arrangement with a T-tail empennage. The SUSAN Electrofan employs a hybrid powertrain to enable: single turbofan operation on a large transport category aircraft; increased aerodynamic and propulsive efficiency through placement of electric engines; optimized turbofan sizing and efficiency through control and electric boosting, reduced control surface sizing through thrust augmentation. A single use battery is employed as the power source in case of turbofan failure. The design study also considers the constraints of operating within the current airport, airspace, and economic constraints. Forward work includes optimizing the overall aircraft configuration and including certain hard to model features like boundary layer ingestion or natural laminar flow across all appliable subsystems. Additional work forward work is a more extensive analysis of the configuration using alternative fuels.

Ralph Jansen↗

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with competing failure modes - Preliminary data analysis

The data analysis of cycles to failure of silver-zinc electrochemical cells with competing failure modes is presented. The test ran 129 cells through charge-discharge cycles until failure; preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimate of life. Batteries fail through low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition; a competing failure modes analysis was made using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution. Extensive residual plotting and probability plotting were used to verify data quality and selection of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Technical Consultation of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) Nickel Hydrogen (NiH2) Battery Charge Capacity Prediction

The purpose of the GSFC position paper is to identify critical HST milestone dates for continued science studies followed by the attachment of a re-entry module or a robotic servicing mission. The paper examines the viability of the HST with respect to the NiH2 continued battery charge capacity. In the course of the assessment, it was recognized that the HST battery thermal control system has an average heat dissipation limitation of 30 W per bay per orbit cycle. This thermal constraint will continue to govern options for battery capacity maintenance. In addition, the HST usage represents the longest exposure ofNiH2 batteries to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) at the current level of Depth of Discharge (DOD). Finally, the current battery life is at the limit predicted by the manufacturer, Eaglepicher. Therefore, given these factors, the potential exists that the HST battery capacities could radically degrade at any point. Given this caveat on any life extrapolations, the conservative model proposed in the GSFC position paper was viewed by the NESC as having several technical assumptions such as limited utilization of flight battery capacity data, the susceptibility of the proposed prediction method to large variations when supplemented with additional information, and the failure to qualitatively or quantitatively assess life prediction sensitivities. The NESC conducted an independent evaluation of the supporting information and assumptions to generate the predictions for battery capacity loss and practicality of on-orbit battery conditioning.

Gentz, Steven J.↗

Short Course on Lithium-Ion Batteries: Fundamental Concepts, Battery Safety, and Modeling Techniques

When developing this course several years back I asked myself, "What do I think the TFAWS community needs to know about lithium-ion batteries and why should they care?" I think the answers to these questions can be boiled down to the following statements: 1. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery electrical performance and efficiency are heavily driven by thermal conditions. 2. Li-ion battery assemblies can experience single cell thermal runaway events which can lead to cell-to-cell propagation; these are thermally driven failure events that can be controlled with effective thermal management systems. 3. Knowledge of BOTH Li-ion battery fundamentals AND traditional thermal design principles are required to develop safe battery assemblies that are both gravimetrically and volumetrically optimized.This year the Short Course on Lithium-ion Batteries will be presented in a 2-part series. The first portion, "Fundamentals, Battery Safety, and Thermal Runaway," will focus on educating participants on the fundamental aspects of Li-ion batteries and on battery safety related topics (i.e. thermal runaway, cell-to-cell propagation, safe handling practices, et...). The second portion, "Practical Thermal Simulation Techniques," will provide participants with a real time demonstration of how to use Thermal Desktop to model of Li-ion battery assemblies. This part of the lesson will cover geometry simplification, mesh development, boundary conditions, and heat loads for both nominal operations (charge and discharge) and for thermal runaway events.

Walker, William↗

Image-Based Failure Assessment of Li-Ion Batteries

In energy storage materials, strong electrochemical-mechanical coupling and highly anisotropic material properties contribute to the formation and propagation of micro-cracking during charge/discharge cycling, resulting in reduced performance and service life. In this work, a digital twin is created to investigate the performance of a heterogeneous Li-ion battery cathode and simulate degradation accumulation. Pixel-based model construction is used to represent the complex material geometries from microstructural images supplied by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Because of the expected large deformation and crack opening, the reproducing kernel particle method (RKPM), a meshfree method with discretization at the image pixels, is used to approximate the field variables: electrostatic potential, concentration, and displacement. An interface modified reproducing kernel (IM-RK) is constructed by scaling a smooth kernel function with an interface-distance function to achieve strategic discontinuity types (i.e. weak discontinuities for strain discontinuities and strong discontinuities for cracks) and alleviate Gibbs oscillations near these transition zones. Applications to the heterogeneous microstructures of Li-ion battery cathodes will be presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods. IM-RK is additionally used to inform how crack evolution in turn affects the coupled electro-chemo-mechanical behavior of the Li-ion battery cathode.

image-based modeling↗

Cycles till failure of silver-zinc cells with completing failures modes: Preliminary data analysis

One hundred and twenty nine cells were run through charge-discharge cycles until failure. The experiment design was a variant of a central composite factorial in five factors. Preliminary data analysis consisted of response surface estimation of life. Batteries fail under two basic modes; a low voltage condition and an internal shorting condition. A competing failure modes analysis using maximum likelihood estimation for the extreme value life distribution was performed. Extensive diagnostics such as residual plotting and probability plotting were employed to verify data quality and choice of model.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Integrated Computational-Experimental Development of Lithium-Air Batteries for Electric Aircraft

The primary obstacle to enable NASA's vision of Green Aviation is the extraordinary energy storage requirements for electric aircraft. Significant advances in high energy, rechargeable, safe batteries are required to enable electric aviation. Boeing's SUGAR and NASA studies have identified 400 Wh/kg as the threshold energy density for general aviation and 750 Wh/kg for commercial regional air service. State of the Art Lithium Ion Battery (LIB) technology currently has a density of 200 Wh/kg and is expected to plateau at 300 Wh/kg due to fundamental chemistry limitations making it unsuitable for future electric aircraft. Additional demanding requirements include high power, rechargeability, and high safety. Such battery technology does not currently exist. The recent considerable activity in battery research (DOE, Tesla Gigafactory, etc) overwhelmingly has been geared towards reducing cost and improving safety of LIB technology in order to promote the adoption of electric automobiles; and thus it is expected to have little impact on electric aviation development. New battery materials will be needed for the "Beyond Li Ion" (BLI) technologies required for high energy, safe electric aviation. Li-Air batteries have the highest known theoretical energy density (3400 Wh/kg) and therefore and if realized promises to transform the global transportation system. These high energy batteries have the potential to meet the energy storage challenges of current and future NASA aeronautics and space missions in addition to many terrestrial transportation applications as well. However, this technology requires significant components development and integration, as it is currently unable to achieve aircraft requirements. The objective of this project is to leverage modern computational materials methods combined with battery multiphysics tools to develop radically advanced compatible cathode and electrolyte materials, build several Li-Air cells, and flight-demonstrate the corresponding Li-Air battery packs. A significant problem for current Lithium-Air batteries is large scale decomposition of the battery electrolyte during operation leading to battery failure after a handful of charge/discharge cycles. Therefore, development of large scale, ultra-high energy, rechargeable, and safe Lithium-Air batteries require highly stable electrolytes that are resistant to decomposition under operating conditions. A NASA-based cross-organizational "dream team" of high-powered experts combined integrated supercomputer modeling, fundamental chemistry analysis, advanced material science, and battery cell development to tackle this very challenging, multidisciplinary problem. The ultimate goal for the team is to develop an integrated experimental/computational infrastructure to produce a reliable predictive capability for the selection of optimal components, their fabrication parameters, and "design rules" of novel cell components for advanced ultra-high energy batteries that can meet energy storage challenges of NASA missions and many terrestrial transportation applications.

Li-air battery↗

Exploring thermal runaway propagation in Li-ion batteries through high-speed X-ray imaging and thermal analysis: Impact of cell chemistry and electrical connections

Battery safety design is important to consider from the individual Li-ion cell to the level of the macro-system. On the macro-level, failure in one single cell can lead to propagation of the thermal runaway and rapidly set a whole battery pack on fire. Factors that can impact the propagation outcome, such as cell model/chemistry and electrical connection are here investigated using a combination of measurements. Several abusive tests were conducted, combining two different cell models (Molicel P42A and LG M50, both 21700s) in series and parallel connections (16 tests per configuration). Overall, a propagation outcome of 56% was measured from the 32 conducted tests, a minimum temperature of 150 °C was required to initiate propagation, and the fastest propagation occurred in 123 s. Temperature measurements were higher in series connected cells, initiating the discussion of cell chemistry and internal resistance on this effect. The difference in current-flow during thermal runaway in series and parallel connections, and how this can affect the temperature evolution is further discussed. Spatio-temporal mapping of X-ray radiography allowed us to derive the speed of thermal runaway evolution inside the battery and has shown that series connected cells, in particular P42A, occur faster. It was further observed that deviant sidewall behaviors such as temperature-induced breaches and pressure-induced ruptures occurred in P42As only respective nail-penetrated cells only.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Nickel cadmium cell composite reliability model

Ni-Cd battery reliability has become a critical design parameter with the increasing need for longer life and optimally designed secondary battery power systems in space as well as in more mundane applications. It is the purpose of this paper to present a state-of-the-art Ni-Cd cell reliability model as a function of cumulative cyclic operation, cell temperature and cyclic depth-of-discharge. In addition, a simple and convenient cell failure analysis technique will be presented in which the reliability, the distribution, and the distribution parameters can be determined by visual inspection.

Kirsch, W. W.↗

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Battery Testbed↗

Computational modeling of coupled mechanical damage and electrochemistry in ternary oxide composite electrodes

Performance degradation of ternary layered oxide cathodes largely originates from their loss of structural integrity in cyclic usage. Mechanical damage, such as intergranular fracture of the active particles, is not only a mechanical cleavage process but also interferes with electrochemical kinetics such as infiltration of liquid electrolyte, surface corrosion of the constituent primary particles, and may eventually isolate the primary grains from the electron conducting network. Here, in this work, we develop a computational framework that integrates electrochemistry of a LiNi x Mn y Co 1−x−y O 2 (NMC) composite cathode with mechanical damage of the active particles. To fully examine the intricate chemomechanical behavior of the electrode, we evaluate the effects of the anisotropic material properties, the influence of mechanical potential on Li transport, and the concurrent intergranular fracture and electrolyte penetration along the grain boundaries upon multiple cycles. Electrolyte infiltration benefits capacity retention but aggravates further mechanical damage by corrosion. Structural failure mostly occurs in the first charging due to the anisotropic mechanical strain between the primary grains, while the resulting damage remains stable in the later few cycles. The results are consistent with experimental observations and the integration of electrochemistry and mechanical failure enables a step further understanding of the complex mechanism of battery degradation.

Battery degradation↗

Predicting Thermal Response in a Li-ion Cell on a UAV Fight Profile

As the energy storage devices continue to "pack" more energy in a small space, any damage, battery component failure, manufacturing defect, or electrically abusing the battery can lead to catastrophic thermal runaway events. A catastrophic thermal event in a cell leads to high temperature, in some instances spewing of battery materials due to gas development from side reactions initiated due to high internal temperatures. Also, a thermal runaway event can propagate from a single "failed" cell to the pack in a battery pack, leading to a more significant event. Mitigating a thermal runaway event is important in the commercial and automotive sectors. However, preventing such events in an electric aircraft (or air taxis) is paramount due to the lack of alternatives in the event of a failure. Battery prognostics algorithms allow the prediction of state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) of a Li-ion battery in a UAV (unmanned air vehicle) [1]. For this presentation, we will extend this two-level battery predictive algorithm to predict SOC, EOL, and estimated maximum temperature during a simulated flight. The model is extended by integrating a lumped physics-driven thermal model for high current densities [2]. The parameters used to control SOC and EOL are maximum storable charge, time constant for Li-ion diffusivity in the carbon particles, and internal cell resistance. Cycling leads to an increase in the heat generated by an aged Li-ion cell with a LiyCoO2 (LCO) cathode and a LixC6 (MCMB) anode. The aging of a cell leads to increase in SEI layer thickness, the diffusion time for the lithium ions inside the electrodes, and the local reaction rates, in addition to the thermodynamic abuse caused by fixed cycling voltages controlled by a Battery Management System. As the battery ages, the cell resistance increases, while the onset temperature of the thermal runaway decreases (depends on the cell chemistry and cell abuse history). Any large deviation of the cell temperature from the estimated (expected) value can identify a faulty cell. Since SEI decomposition has the lowest onset temperature in the series of reactions leading to thermal runaway, the model considers the self-heating rate of the SEI decomposition as onset temperature (similar to Ref. [3]). The parameters in the Arrhenius equation for the SEI heating rate depend on the number of cycles, the cell's operating temperature, and the cell's abuse history [4,5]. Coupling the electrochemical, thermal, and aging model allow the prognostic algorithm to estimate a typical cell voltage and temperature as a function of age (cycling and calendar), whose departure from measured values from the BMS is used to identify a safety event. In addition, we will present the results from two simulated flight scenarios for a UAV: typical and extreme, since the power requirements vary significantly during take-off, landing, and changing altitudes, while the power requirements remain low during the cruise. For this presentation, the power requirement for a battery pack in a UAV is scaled to a single cell. This cell is cycled through a simulated profile, and the data is collected and used to predict a safety event.

Li-ion↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring and predicting the health of physical systems. Prognostics algorithms are useful in that they can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system state throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. However, effective prognosis can be challenging to achieve in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for some prognostics applications. In this work, we implement three new algorithmic approaches to prediction (sampling methods, variable prediction time step, variable prediction sample size) with the goal of improving computational efficiency while minimizing decrease in model accuracy. To quantitatively analyze our results, we examine a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. Notably, through this work it was found that none of the sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. However, our results show that prediction accuracy is highly dependent on the time step used, and that an appropriate time step can optimize both model accuracy and simulation efficiency. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment in an application-specific manner may prove useful in some applications. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency of prognosis.

Prognostics↗