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At least 55 records · Page 3

Analysis of a Wave-Powered, Reverse-Osmosis System and Its Economic Availability in the United States: Preprint

A wave energy converter (WEC) system has the potential to convert the wave energy resource directly into the high-pressure flow that is needed by the desalination system to permeate saltwater through the reverse-osmosis membrane to generate clean water. In this study, a wave-to-water numerical model was developed to investigate the potential use of a wave-powered desalination system (WPDS) for water production in the United States. The model was developed by coupling a time-domain radiation-and-diffraction-method-based numerical tool (WEC-Sim) for predicting the hydrodynamic performance of WECs with a solution-diffusion model that was used to simulate the reverse-osmosis process. To evaluate the feasibility of the WPDS, the wave-to-water numerical model was applied to simulate a desalination system that used an oscillating surge WEC device to pump seawater through the system. The annual water production was estimated based on the wave resource at a reference site on the coast of northern California to investigate the potential cost of water in that area, where the cost of water and electricity is high compared to other regions. In the scenario evaluated, for a 100-unit utility-scale electricity-producing array, the estimated levelized cost of energy for these WECs is about 3-6 times the U.S.'s current, unsubsidized electricity rates. However, with clean water as an end product and by directly producing pressurized water with WECs, rather than electricity as an intermediary, it is presently only 12 percent greater than typical water cost in California. This study suggests that a WEC array that produces water may be a viable, near-term solution to the nation's water supply, and the niche application of the WPDS may also provide developers with new opportunities to further develop technologies that benefit both the electric and drinking water markets.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Molybdenum Availability Is Key to Nitrate Removal in Contaminated Groundwater Environments

ABSTRACT The concentrations of molybdenum (Mo) and 25 other metals were measured in groundwater samples from 80 wells on the Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) (Oak Ridge, TN), many of which are contaminated with nitrate, as well as uranium and various other metals. The concentrations of nitrate and uranium were in the ranges of 0.1 μM to 230 mM and <0.2 nM to 580 μM, respectively. Almost all metals examined had significantly greater median concentrations in a subset of wells that were highly contaminated with uranium (≥126 nM). They included cadmium, manganese, and cobalt, which were 1,300- to 2,700-fold higher. A notable exception, however, was Mo, which had a lower median concentration in the uranium-contaminated wells. This is significant, because Mo is essential in the dissimilatory nitrate reduction branch of the global nitrogen cycle. It is required at the catalytic site of nitrate reductase, the enzyme that reduces nitrate to nitrite. Moreover, more than 85% of the groundwater samples contained less than 10 nM Mo, whereas concentrations of 10 to 100 nM Mo were required for efficient growth by nitrate reduction for two Pseudomonas strains isolated from ORR wells and by a model denitrifier, Pseudomonas stutzeri RCH2. Higher concentrations of Mo tended to inhibit the growth of these strains due to the accumulation of toxic concentrations of nitrite, and this effect was exacerbated at high nitrate concentrations. The relevance of these results to a Mo-based nitrate removal strategy and the potential community-driving role that Mo plays in contaminated environments are discussed.

Thorgersen, Michael P.↗

Space Transportation System Availability Requirements and Its Influencing Attributes Relationships

It is essential that management and engineering understand the need for an availability requirement for the customer's space transportation system as it enables the meeting of his needs, goal, and objectives. There are three types of availability, e.g., operational availability, achieved availability, or inherent availability. The basic definition of availability is equal to the mean uptime divided by the sum of the mean uptime plus the mean downtime. The major difference is the inclusiveness of the functions within the mean downtime and the mean uptime. This paper will address tIe inherent availability which only addresses the mean downtime as that mean time to repair or the time to determine the failed article, remove it, install a replacement article and verify the functionality of the repaired system. The definitions of operational availability include the replacement hardware supply or maintenance delays and other non-design factors in the mean downtime. Also with inherent availability the mean uptime will only consider the mean time between failures (other availability definitions consider this as mean time between maintenance - preventive and corrective maintenance) that requires the repair of the system to be functional. It is also essential that management and engineering understand all influencing attributes relationships to each other and to the resultant inherent availability requirement. This visibility will provide the decision makers with the understanding necessary to place constraints on the design definition for the major drivers that will determine the inherent availability, safety, reliability, maintainability, and the life cycle cost of the fielded system provided the customer. This inherent availability requirement may be driven by the need to use a multiple launch approach to placing humans on the moon or the desire to control the number of spare parts required to support long stays in either orbit or on the surface of the moon or mars. It is the intent of this paper to provide the visibility of relationships of these major attribute drivers (variables) to each other and the resultant system inherent availability, but also provide the capability to bound the variables providing engineering the insight required to control the system's engineering solution. An example of this visibility will be the need to provide integration of similar discipline functions to allow control of the total parts count of the space transportation system. Also the relationship visibility of selecting a reliability requirement will place a constraint on parts count to achieve a given inherent availability requirement or accepting a larger parts count with the resulting higher reliability requirement. This paper will provide an understanding for the relationship of mean repair time (mean downtime) to maintainability, e.g., accessibility for repair, and both mean time between failure, e.g., reliability of hardware and the system inherent availability. Having an understanding of these relationships and resulting requirements before starting the architectural design concept definition will avoid considerable time and money required to iterate the design to meet the redesign and assessment process required to achieve the results required of the customer's space transportation system. In fact the impact to the schedule to being able to deliver the system that meets the customer's needs, goals, and objectives may cause the customer to compromise his desired operational goal and objectives resulting in considerable increased life cycle cost of the fielded space transportation system.

Rhodes, Russel E.↗

Availability and redundancy design considerations for Electron-Ion Collider cooling water systems and components

The Electron-Ion Collider (EIC) is composed of several large-scale systems, which all require highly available cooling systems based on the Conceptual Design Report. Since the overall EIC availability goal is 85%, all the subsystems will contribute. Availability is defined by the time that a component or system is functional given a required or scheduled run time. The focus of the project was to determine if redundant or extra cooling water and deionized water pumps were needed in a subsystem to increase the overall EIC availability. The largest subsystem in the ring is the 10 o’clock cooling system, so this was used for redundancy analysis. Relationships between the components were defined as parallel, series, or m-out-of-n for the cooling towers, valves, pumps and heat exchangers to perform calculations. A comparison between an original system versus a redundant one was then done using component availability from industry standards. Cost analysis was also performed to see how much the availability and cost would decrease if the redundancy application was not chosen. The Collider-Accelerator Department (CAD) also has a calculation in place for the Relativistic-Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), so cooling water failure data was collected from their operational log and analyzed for real-life component availability. A comparison of component availability from the CAD data to the industry standards was made through the 10 o’clock cooling system layout. The results showed that the subsystems need to have over a 98% availability for an 85% goal, and that the CAD data is very close to the industry component standards. The cost differential is miniscule compared to the potential availability increase. Therefore, redundant systems can increase the overall EIC availability by a sizable amount and are worth implementing.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

PV Inverter Availability from the U.S. PV Fleet

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data, and publish aggregated, anonymized results. An assessment of system availability is conducted on 1128 systems which passed our data quality checks, and include cumulative energy meter data. Overall inverter availability is low in the first 6 months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. System-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99, and a lower P90 value of 0.95. A dependence on system size is also identified, with better inverter availability results for smaller PV systems. Potential causes of this effect may include the selection of inverter itself: smaller inverters 6kW-250kW showed better average availability than inverters 300kW-5MW. The elimination of string combiner boxes and lower energy impact when one particular inverter goes off-line are potential benefits of a string inverter-based PV system architecture. DNV also analyzed availability data from over 1100 operating systems and found similar trends. DNV's P50 industry guidance on expected availability has been updated to reflect the data and the following observations: utility scale systems have lower availability than DG systems, availability is lower in first year compared to subsequent years, and that actual availability is lower than expected.

fleet↗

Space Transportation System Availability Relationships to Life Cycle Cost

Future space transportation architectures and designs must be affordable. Consequently, their Life Cycle Cost (LCC) must be controlled. For the LCC to be controlled, it is necessary to identify all the requirements and elements of the architecture at the beginning of the concept phase. Controlling LCC requires the establishment of the major operational cost drivers. Two of these major cost drivers are reliability and maintainability, in other words, the system's availability (responsiveness). Potential reasons that may drive the inherent availability requirement are the need to control the number of unique parts and the spare parts required to support the transportation system's operation. For more typical space transportation systems used to place satellites in space, the productivity of the system will drive the launch cost. This system productivity is the resultant output of the system availability. Availability is equal to the mean uptime divided by the sum of the mean uptime plus the mean downtime. Since many operational factors cannot be projected early in the definition phase, the focus will be on inherent availability which is equal to the mean time between a failure (MTBF) divided by the MTBF plus the mean time to repair (MTTR) the system. The MTBF is a function of reliability or the expected frequency of failures. When the system experiences failures the result is added operational flow time, parts consumption, and increased labor with an impact to responsiveness resulting in increased LCC. The other function of availability is the MTTR, or maintainability. In other words, how accessible is the failed hardware that requires replacement and what operational functions are required before and after change-out to make the system operable. This paper will describe how the MTTR can be equated to additional labor, additional operational flow time, and additional structural access capability, all of which drive up the LCC. A methodology will be presented that provides the decision makers with the understanding necessary to place constraints on the design definition. This methodology for the major drivers will determine the inherent availability, safety, reliability, maintainability, and the life cycle cost of the fielded system. This methodology will focus on the achievement of an affordable, responsive space transportation system. It is the intent of this paper to not only provide the visibility of the relationships of these major attribute drivers (variables) to each other and the resultant system inherent availability, but also to provide the capability to bound the variables, thus providing the insight required to control the system's engineering solution. An example of this visibility is the need to provide integration of similar discipline functions to allow control of the total parts count of the space transportation system. Also, selecting a reliability requirement will place a constraint on parts count to achieve a given inherent availability requirement, or require accepting a larger parts count with the resulting higher individual part reliability requirements. This paper will provide an understanding of the relationship of mean repair time (mean downtime) to maintainability (accessibility for repair), and both mean time between failure (reliability of hardware) and the system inherent availability.

Rhodes, Russel E.↗

Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid

Climate impact assessment for power systems has tended to focus on the effects of water availability on generation without explicitly considering how these impacts propagate through the interconnected grid to affect generation in other locations. We investigate the impact of projected water availability on the operations of the contemporary Western U.S. power grid, focusing specifically on regional interdependencies. Hydrologic simulations derived from three GCMs (CCSM4, INMCM4 and GFDL-CM3) and two radiative scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are used to force a large-scale, distributed water management model (MOSART-WM), which translates water availability into power generation constraints at hydropower plants and water-dependent thermo-electric plants. Power system dynamics are evaluated using the production cost model PLEXOS. We find that the inter-regional connections across the Western U.S. electricity infrastructure are key in managing drastic variations in regional water availability. Net generation in the Northwest and Northern California is substantially sensitive to local water availability. Generation from the Desert Southwest emerges as a critical resource to compensate for variations in water availability in those regions. Climate change impacts on Northwestern water availability therefore drive future changes in other regions’ generation and regional power flows. The large inter-annual hydrological variability of Northern California exacerbates grid stress arising from long-term changes in water availability in the Northwest. While the regional power flow directions seem insensitive to long-term variations in water availability, the analysis highlights the need to consider other compounding regional factors such as changes in Southern California net load or changes in regional fuel prices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Effect of Biochar and Biochar Particle Size on Plant-Available Water of Sand, Silt Loam, and Clay Soil

Biochar is being used as a soil amendment to improve soil hydraulic properties. It has been reported that biochar increases plant-available water, particularly in coarse-textured soils; however, effects on fine-textured soils are less pronounced. Here, we quantified the effects of biochar particle size on plant-available water in sand, silt loam, and clay soils. We amended these soils with a hydrophilic biochar, and packed soil-biochar mixtures into columns of 5.35-cm diameter and 3.0-cm height. Biochar was produced by gasification of woody forest residues. We applied the biochar at two different rates (0.5\% and 2\% by weight of C) and with four different biochar particle-size fractions ($<$4.75, $<$2.0, $<$1.0 and $<$0.5 mm). Our results show that biochar amendments increased the plant-available water (when expressed gravimetrically) of all three soils, particularly at the highest biochar application rate. Although the absolute increase in plant-available water was largest for the silt loam soil, the relative increase of plant-available water was greater for the sand than for the silt loam and clay. When expressed in volumetric terms, however, the effects on water retention were less pronounced: the sand showed a small increase in plant-available water with biochar amendment, and no change was observed with the silt loam and clay. Particle size of biochar had little effect on plant-available water (when expressed in gravimetric terms) in the three soils, but silt loam and clay showed increased plant-available water (when expressed in volumetric terms) with decreasing biochar particle size, while no effect was observed for the sand. While our findings corroborate many of the previously reported effects of biochar on soil-water retention, we show that the effects and their magnitude depend on whether the results are reported in terms of gravimetric or volumetric water contents. Because bulk density tends to decrease with increasing biochar application, so will the volumetric water content, and thus the magnitude of the effect on plant-available water will be smaller when expressed in volumetric water content.

hydraulic properties, water holding capacity, soil↗

Reducing microgrid availability to reduce costs for coastal Puerto Rican communities

Renewable microgrids are sustainable, resilient solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Making electric loads nearly 100% available (i.e., power remains on) during outages increases cost. Near 100% availability is required when human life or high-cost assets are involved, but availability can be reduced for less consequential loads leading to lower costs. This study analyses costs for photo-voltaic and lithium-ion battery microgrids with availability ranging from 0–99%. We develop a methodology to analyse three Puerto Rican coastal communities. Here, we consider power outage effects for hurricanes, earthquakes, and everyday outages. The results show cost versus availability from 0–99%. There is 27–31% cost reduction at 80% availability in comparison to 99% availability. A regression model of microgrid availability versus three ratios: 1) the annual generation to demand ratio, 2) storage to interruption energy ratio, and 3) peak storage to load ratio produced a coefficient of determination of 0.99949 with 70% of the data used for training and 30% for testing. The results can therefore be extended to other coastal Puerto Rican communities of varying sizes that have ratios within the ranges analysed in this study. This can empower decision makers to rapidly analyse designs that have availabilities well below 100%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Methodology for the systems engineering process. Volume 3: Operational availability

A detailed description and explanation of the operational availability parameter is presented. The fundamental mathematical basis for operational availability is developed, and its relationship to a system's overall performance effectiveness is illustrated within the context of identifying specific availability requirements. Thus, in attempting to provide a general methodology for treating both hypothetical and existing availability requirements, the concept of an availability state, in conjunction with the more conventional probability-time capability, is investigated. In this respect, emphasis is focused upon a balanced analytical and pragmatic treatment of operational availability within the system design process. For example, several applications of operational availability to typical aerospace systems are presented, encompassing the techniques of Monte Carlo simulation, system performance availability trade-off studies, analytical modeling of specific scenarios, as well as the determination of launch-on-time probabilities. Finally, an extensive bibliography is provided to indicate further levels of depth and detail of the operational availability parameter.

Nelson, J. H.↗

Root and Rhizosphere Bacterial Phosphatase Activity Varies with Tree Species and Soil Phosphorus Availability in Puerto Rico Tropical Forest

Climatic conditions in tropical forests combined with the immobility of phosphorus due to sorption on mineral surfaces or result in soils typically lacking in the form of phosphorus (orthophosphate) most easily metabolized by plants and microbes. In these soils, mineralization of organic phosphorus can be the major source for labile inorganic P available for uptake. Both plants and microbes encode for phosphatase enzymes capable of mineralizing a range of organic phosphorus compounds. However, the activity of these enzymes depends on several edaphic factors including P availability and tree or microbial species. Thus, phosphatase activity in both roots and the root microbial community constitute an important role in P mineralization and P nutrient dynamics that are not well studied in tropical forests. We measured phosphatase activity in roots and bacterial isolates from the microbial community of six tree species from three forest sites differing in phosphorus availability in the Luquillo Mountains of Puerto Rico. Root and microbial phosphatase activity were both influenced by tree identity and soil phosphorus availability. However, tree identity had a larger effect on phosphatase activity (effect size = 0.12) than soil phosphorus availability (effect size = 0.07). In addition, lower amounts of P availability corresponded with higher levels of enzyme activity. In contrast, ANOSIM analysis of the weighted UniFrac distance matrix indicates that microbial community composition was more strongly controlled by soil P availability (P value < 0.05). These results indicate that root and rhizosphere microbial phosphatase activity are similarly expressed despite the slightly stronger influence of tree identity on root function and the stronger influence of P availability on microbial community composition. The low levels of orthophosphate in tropical forests, rather than prohibiting growth, have encouraged a variety of functions to adapt to minimal levels of an essential nutrient. Phosphatase activity is one such mechanism that varies in both roots and microbial community members. A thorough understanding of phosphatase activity provides insight into P mineralization in tropical forests, providing not only perspective on ecosystem function of tropical trees and microbial communities, but also in advancing efforts to improve representations of tropical forests in future climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Availability analysis of the traveling-wave maser amplifiers in the deep space network. Part 1: The 70-meter antennas

The results of the reliability and availability analyses of the individual S- and X-band traveling-wave maser (TWM) assemblies and their operational configurations in the 70-meter antennas of NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) are described. For the period 1990 through 1991, the TWM availability parameters for the Telemetry Data System are: mean time between failures (MTBF), 930 hr; mean time to restore services (MTTRS), 1.4 hr; and the average availability, 99.85 percent. In previously published articles, the performance analysis of the TWM assemblies was confined to the determination of the parameters specified above. However, as the mean down time (MDT) for the repair of TWM's increases, the levels of the TWM operational availabilities and MTTRS are adversely affected. A more comprehensive TWM availability analysis is presented to permit evaluation of both MTBF and MDT effects. Performance analysis of the TWM assemblies, based on their station monthly failure reports, indicates that the TWM's required MTBF and MDT levels of 3000 hr and 36 to 48 hr, respectively, have been achieved by the TWM's only at the Canberra Deep Space Station (DSS 43). The Markov Process technique is employed to develop suitable availability measures for the S- and X-band TWM configurations when each is operated in a two-assembly standby mode. The derived stochastic expressions allow for the evaluation of those configurations' simultaneous availability for the Antenna Microwave Subsystem. The application of these expressions to demonstrate the impact of various levels of TWM maintainability (or MDT) on their configurations' operational availabilities is presented for each of the 70-m antenna stations.

Issa, T. N.↗

Application of the BSRN Data in Validating the GEWEX SRB Data: Quality-Control and Resulting Available Monthly Means

The BSRN data have been used in validation of the satellite-based GEWEX SRB data, and the recent Release 4.0-IP data cover the 34-year period from July 1983 to June 2017. Here we focus on the validation of the shortwave monthly means from 1992 to 2017 against the BSRN Global 1. We first perform the BSRN-recommended quality-control on the original data. We then calculate the monthly-hourly means from which we calculate the monthly means. Twenty-four (24) monthly-hourly means are required to calculate a monthly mean. To guarantee the quality of the monthly mean, we also require that 95% or more hourly means be available in order for a monthly-hourly mean to be calculated. Since the above quality-control significantly reduces the number of available monthly means, we are curious how many monthly means we would get if we relax the quality-control, and how the resulting monthly means would compare with the GEWEX SRB data. In a version we experimented, only constant upper and lower bounds are imposed on various fluxes, and the original data are largely retained. We found that many more monthly means would be available, and the overall bias and RMS would not be significantly different from that of the strict quality-control. With the strict quality-control, if we let Avail (minimum percentage of available hourly means required for a monthly-hourly mean to be computed) change from 3.2% to 95%, the Bias/RMS/N change from -2.77/20.56/9756 to -0.35/13.41/4581, where N is the number of available monthly means, and Bias and RMS are in the unit of W/sq. m. On the other hand, with the lax quality-control, when Avail changes from 3.2% to 95%, the Bias/RMS/N change from -0.82/19.53/9819 to -0.21/14.41/5875. South Pole (SPO) is one of the sites we are particularly interested in. With the strict quality-control, and when Avail changes from 3.2% to 95%, the Bias/RMS/N change from 5.89/15.85/283 to 1.23/5.52/133; with the lax quality-control, the Bias/RMS/N change from 1.17/11.21/284 to 1.88/7.9/177.

Taiping Zhang↗

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Increased Arctic NO3− Availability as a Hydrogeomorphic Consequence of Permafrost Degradation and Landscape Drying

Climate-driven permafrost thaw alters the strongly coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles within the Arctic tundra, influencing the availability of limiting nutrients including nitrate (NO3−). Researchers have identified two primary mechanisms that increase nitrogen and NO3− availability within permafrost soils: (1) the ‘frozen feast’, where previously frozen organic material becomes available as it thaws, and (2) ‘shrubification’, where expansion of nitrogen-fixing shrubs promotes increased soil nitrogen. Through the synthesis of original and previously published observational data, and the application of multiple geospatial approaches, this study investigates and highlights a third mechanism that increases NO3− availability: the hydrogeomorphic evolution of polygonal permafrost landscapes. Permafrost thaw drives changes in microtopography, increasing the drainage of topographic highs, thus increasing oxic conditions that promote NO3− production and accumulation. We extrapolate relationships between NO3− and soil moisture in elevated topographic features within our study area and the broader Alaskan Coastal Plain and investigate potential changes in NO3− availability in response to possible hydrogeomorphic evolution scenarios of permafrost landscapes. These approximations indicate that such changes could increase Arctic tundra NO3− availability by ~250–1000%. Thus, hydrogeomorphic changes that accompany continued permafrost degradation in polygonal permafrost landscapes will substantially increase soil pore water NO3− availability and boost future fertilization and productivity in the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Whole-Ecosystem Warming Increases Plant-Available Nitrogen and Phosphorus in an Ombrotrophic Bog

Warming is expected to increase the net release of carbon from peatland soils, contributing to future warming. This positive feedback may be moderated by the response of peatland vegetation to rising atmospheric [CO 2 ] or to increased soil nutrient availability. We asked whether a gradient of whole-ecosystem warming (from + 0 °C to + 9 °C) would increase plant-available nitrogen and phosphorus in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, USA, and whether elevated [CO 2 ] would modify the nutrient response. We tracked changes in plant-available nutrients across space and through time and in comparison with other nutrient pools, and assessed whether nutrient warming responses were captured by a point version of the land-surface model, ELM-SPRUCE. We found that warming exponentially increased plant-available ammonium and phosphate, but that nutrient dynamics were unaffected by elevated [CO 2 ]. The warming response increased by an order of magnitude between the first and fourth year of the experimental manipulation, perhaps because of dramatic mortality of Sphagnum mosses in the surface peat of the warmest treatments. However, neither the magnitude nor the temporal dynamics of the responses were captured by ELM-SPRUCE. Here, relative increases in plant-available ammonium and phosphate with warming were similar, but the response varied across raised hummocks and depressed hollows and with peat depth. Plant-available nutrient dynamics were only loosely correlated with inorganic and organic porewater nutrients, likely representing different processes. Future predictions of peatland nutrient availability under climate change scenarios must account for dynamic changes in nutrient acquisition by plants and microbes, as well as microtopography and peat depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of the Available Drawdowns for Oil Storage Caverns at the Big Hill SPR Site - Cavern Integrity

This report updates the estimated values of the baseline available drawdowns for the caverns at the Big Hill storage facility, and an updated table listing the available drawdowns. A new finite element numerical analysis model was constructed that consists of a realistic mesh capturing the sonar-measured geometries of Big Hill SPR site and used the daily data of actual wellhead pressures and oil-brine interfaces. The number of available drawdowns for each of the Big Hill SPR caverns is estimated using the new model. All caverns are predicted to have five available drawdowns remaining from a geomechanical perspective. BC-101, 105, and 110 have a region of concern at the floor edge and/or sloping floor, where tensile and dilatant stresses are predicted to occur during each workover. The tensile state is predicted to occur because of the geometries of the edge and floor. Therefore, geomechanical examination for three caverns would be recommended after a drawdown leach. The well integrity of each cavern is not investigated in this report. The estimate of the number of baseline available drawdowns for the Big Hill caverns in this report will be incorporated in future assessments of the available drawdowns for all the SPR caverns. The estimates for the number of baseline available drawdowns are subject to change in the future as the knowledge of physical phenomena at the sites, and the further development of the models of geomechanical behavior at the sites, evolve over time.

02 PETROLEUM↗

2023 Annual Report of Available Drawdowns for Each Oil Storage Cavern in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve

DOE maintains an up-to-date documentation of the number of available full drawdowns of each of the caverns at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This information is important for assessing the SPR’s ability to deliver oil to domestic oil companies expeditiously if national or world events dictate a rapid sale and deployment of the oil reserves. Sandia was directed to develop and implement a process to continuously assess and report the evolution of drawdown capacity, the subject of this report. This report covers impacts on drawdown availability due to SPR operations during Calendar Year 2022. A cavern has an available drawdown if, after that drawdown, the long-term stability of the cavern, the cavern field, or the oil quality are not compromised. Thus, determining the number of available drawdowns requires the consideration of several factors regarding cavern and wellbore integrity and stability, including stress states caused by cavern geometry and operations, salt damage caused by dilatant and tensile stresses, the effect of enhanced creep on wellbore integrity, and the sympathetic stress effect of operations on neighboring caverns. Finite-element geomechanical models have been used to determine the stress states in the pillars following successive drawdowns. By computing the tensile and dilatant stresses in the salt, areas of potential structural instability can be identified that may represent red flags for additional drawdowns. These analyses have found that many caverns will maintain structural integrity even when grown via drawdowns to dimensions resulting in a pillar-to-diameter ratio of less than 1.0. The analyses have also confirmed that certain caverns should only be completely drawn down one time. As the SPR caverns are utilized and partial drawdowns are performed to remove oil from the caverns (e.g., for oil sales, purchases, or exchanges authorized by the Congress or the President), the changes to the cavern caused by these procedures must be tracked and accounted for so that an ongoing assessment of the cavern’s drawdown capacity may be continued. A methodology for assessing and tracking the available drawdowns for each cavern is reiterated. This report is the latest in a series of annual reports, and it includes the baseline available drawdowns for each cavern, and the most recent assessment of the evolution of drawdown expenditures. A total of 222 million barrels of oil were released in calendar-year 2022. A nearly-equal amount of raw water was injected, resulting in an estimated 34 million barrels of cavern leaching. Twenty caverns have now expended a full drawdown. Cavern BC 18 has expended all its baseline available drawdowns, and has no drawdowns remaining. Cavern BM 103 has expended one of its two baseline drawdowns, and is now a single-drawdown cavern. All other caverns with an expenditure went from at-least-5 to at-least-4 remaining drawdowns.

02 PETROLEUM↗