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Near-Earth Object (NEO) Hazard Background

The fundamental problem regarding NEO hazards is that the Earth and other planets, as well as their moons, share the solar system with a vast number of small planetary bodies and orbiting debris. Objects of substantial size are typically classified as either comets or asteroids. Although the solar system is quite expansive, the planets and moons (as well as the Sun) are occasionally impacted by these objects. We live in a cosmic shooting gallery where collisions with Earth occur on a regular basis. Because the number of smaller comets and asteroids is believed to be much greater than larger objects, the frequency of impacts is significantly higher. Fortunately, the smaller objects, which are much more numerous, are usually neutralized by the Earth's protective atmosphere. It is estimated that between 1000 and 10,000 tons of debris fall to Earth each year, most of it in the form of dust particles and extremely small meteorites. With no atmosphere, the Moon's surface is continuously impacted with dust and small debris. On November 17 and 18, 1999, during the annual Leonid meteor shower, several lunar surface impacts were observed by amateur astronomers in North America. The Leonids result from the Earth's passage each year through the debris ejected from Comet Tempel-Tuttle. These annual showers provide a periodic reminder of the possibility of a much more consequential cosmic collision, and the heavily cratered lunar surface acts a constant testimony to the impact threat. The impact problem and those planetary bodies that are a threat have been discussed in great depth in a wide range of publications and books, such as The Spaceguard Survey , Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, and Cosmic Catastrophes. This paper gives a brief overview on the background of this problem and address some limitations of ground-based surveys for detection of small and/or faint near-Earth objects.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

A search for clustering among the meteoroid impacts detected by the Apollo lunar seismic network

A difference is noted between meteoroids whose masses lie above and below 1 kg in temporal meteoroid-impact clusterings detected by the Apollo lunar seismic network; while the former exhibit little temporal clustering, small ones show strong clusterings identifiable with terrestrial meteor showers. This finding suggests a different type and origin for the two meteoroid sizes; the small may be primarily cometary, while the large may derive from near-earth asteroids and short-period comets. It is speculated that the June, 1975, and January, 1977 swarms of large meteoroids may contain high-density meteoritic objects interpretable as meteorite streams.

Oberst, Juergen↗

A continued program of planetary study at the University of Texas McDonald Observatory

The beginning of eclipses of the Pluto-Charon system was detected. The onset of coma formation of P/Halley at 5.4 au was detected and evidence of sublimation at 4.8 au when CN emission was detected. Extensive spatial maps of the gas in the comae of comets Halley and Giacobini-Zinner were obtained in fall 1985. Halley was time variable, and Giacobini-Zinner was depleted in C2 and C3 relative to CN. Comet Kopff was shown to have a pre-perihelion brightness maximum of its gas, consistent with mantle development if the comet is a high obliquity object. New Haser model scale lengths for CN, C3, and C2 were determined using results from the Faint Comet Survey. Spectra of 12 asteroids in unusual orbits showed no evidence of any comet-like emission features. In particular, 3200 Phaethon (1983 TB) has no gas or dust coma, in spite of the similarity of its orbit with the Geminid meteor stream. Data were analyzed on Saturn's H2 and CH4 bands for the recent southern summer using a Tomasko-Doose type of haze distribution. This haze model fits the data moderately well, giving a CH4 mixing ratio of (4.2 + or 0.4)x003. Simple functions were found to approximate the collision-induced rotation-translation thermal opacity of H2.

Smith, H. J.↗

Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types

The determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of Near Earth Object (NEO) characterization. A fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), thus in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellites, or expensive spacecraft missions, a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs (Potentially Hazardous Objects). Meteoroid bulk density is still inherently difficult to measure, and is most often determined by modeling the ablation of the meteoroid. One approach towards determining a meteoroid density distribution entails using a more easily measured proxy for the densities, then calibrating the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, KB (Ceplecha, 1958), which is thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid and often correlated to different bulk densities in literature. KB is calculated using the air density at the beginning height of the meteor, the initial velocity, and the zenith angle of the radiant; quantities more readily determined than meteoroid bulk density itself. Numerical values of K(sub B) are sorted into groups (A, B, C, etc.), which have been matched to meteorite falls or meteor showers with known composition such as the porous Draconids. An extensive survey was conducted to establish the strength of the relationship between bulk density and K(sub B), specifically looking at those that additionally determined K(sub B) for the meteors. In examining the modeling of high-resolution meteor data from Kikwaya et al. (2011), the correlation between K(sub B) and bulk density was not as strong as hoped. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter (T(sub J)), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J) < 2) exhibiting much lower bulk densities than those originating from Jupiter Family comets and asteroids (T(sub J) > 2). Therefore, this work indicates that the dynamical classification of a meteoroid is a better indicator of the density than the strength proxy, a somewhat surprising result.

Blaauw, R. C.↗

A study of extended zodiacal structures

Observations of cometary dust trails and zodiacal dust bands, discovered by the Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) were analyzed in a continuing effort to understand their nature and relationship to comets, asteroids, and processes effecting those bodies. A survey of all trails observed by IRAS has been completed, and analysis of this phenomenon continues. A total of 8 trails have been associated with known short-period comets (Churyumov-Gerasimenko, Encke, Gunn, Kopff, Pons-Winnecke, Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, Tempel 1, and Tempel 2), and a few faint trails have been detected which are not associated with any known comet. It is inferred that all short-period comets may have trails, and that the trails detected were seen as a consequence of observational selection effects. Were IRAS launched today, it would likely observe a largely different set of trails. The Tempel 2 trail exhibits a small but significant excess in color temperature relative to a blackbody at the same heliocentric distance. This excess may be due to the presence of a population of small, low-beta particles deriving from large particles within the trail, or a temperature gradient over the surface of large trail particles. Trails represent the very first stage in the formation and evolution of a meteor stream, and may also be the primary mechanism by which comets contribute to the interplanetary dust complex. A mathematical model of the spatial distribution of orbitally evolved collisional debris was developed which reproduces the zodiacal dust band phenomena and was used in the analysis of dust band observations made by IRAS. This has resulted in the principal zodiacal dust bands being firmly related to the principal Hirayama asteroid families. In addition, evidence for the collisional diffusion of the orbital elements of the dust particles has been found in the case of dust generated in the Eos asteroid family.

Sykes, Mark V.↗

Consequences of impacts of small asteroids and comets with Earth

The fragmentation of a small asteroid in the atmosphere greatly increases its cross sections for aerodynamic braking and energy dissipation. At a typical impact velocity of 22 km/s, the atmosphere absorbs more than half the kinetic energy of stony meteoroids with diameters, D(sub m), less than 220 m and iron meteoroids with D(sub m) less than 80 m. The corresponding diameter for comets with impact velocity 50 km/s is D(sub m) less than 1600 m. Most of the atmospheric energy dissipation occurs in a fraction of a scale height, so large meteors appear to 'explode' or 'flare' at the end of their visible paths. This dissipation of energy in the atmosphere protects the earth from direct impact damage (e.g., craters), but it produces a blast wave that can do considerable damage. The area of destruction around the impact point in which the over-pressure in the blast wave exceeds 4 lb/sq in = 2.8 x 10(exp 5) dynes/cu cm, which is enough to knock over trees and destroy buildings, increases rapidly from zero for chondritic meteoroids less than 56 m in diameter (15 megatons) to about 200 sq km for those 80 m in diameter (48 megatons); the probable diameter of the tunguska impactor of 1908 is about 80 m. Crater formation and earthquakes are not significant in land impacts by stony asteroids less than about 200 m in diameter because of the air protection. A tsunami is probably the most devastating type of damage for asteroids 200 m to 1 km in diameter. An impact by an asteroid this size anywhere in the Atlantic would devastate coastal areas on both sides of the ocean. An asteroid a few kilometers across would produce a tsunami that would reach the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains in the upper half of the East Coast of the United States. Most of Florida is protected from a tsunami by the gradual slope of the ocean off its coast, which causes most of the tsunami energy to be reflected back into the Atlantic. The atmosphere plume produced by asteroids with diameters exceeding about 120 m cannot be contained by the atmosphere, so this bubble of high-temperature gas forms a new layer on top of the atmosphere. The dust entrapped in this hot gas is likely to have optical depths exceeding tau = 10 for asteroids with diameters exceeding about 0.5 to 1 km. The optical flux from asteroids 60 m or more in diameter is enough to ignite pine forests. However, the blast wave from an impacting asteroid goes beyond the radius in which the fire starts. The blast wave tends to blow out the fire, so it is likely that the impact will char the forest, as at Tunguska, but the impact will not produce a sustained fire. Because comets dissipate their energy much higher in the atmosphere than asteroids, they illuminate a much larger region and their blast wave is weaker. So they are much more effective in producing large fires. This suggests that the KT impactor was a comet rather than an asteroid.

Hills, J. G.↗

The flux of small asteroids near the Earth

Fifteen new EA's (Earth approachers) have been discovered since September, among them the smallest asteroids on record: 1990 UN, 1991 BA, and 1991 JR, which are in the 10 to 100 m size range (Scotti et al. 1991b). For the first time, we can make estimates of the fluxes near the Earth of these small objects, thought to be the immediate parents of meteorites, from direct observation. In this paper, I show that for EA's larger than a few 100 m, the magnitude-frequency dependence we observe is consistent with the cumulative magnitude-frequency relation, m(H), established for the main belt asteroids. Assuming this relation extends to smaller sizes, however, the probability for discovering both 1990 UN and 1991 JR was 15 percent, and for discovering 1991 BA only 1 percent. Objects smaller than approx. 100 m are therefore increasingly overabundant compared to an extrapolation from larger objects, with the excess increasing with decreasing size. Near 10 m, the most probable flux near the Earth is two orders of magnitude higher. This is in agreement with the flux extrapolated from observations of bright meteors and fireballs. It is thus likely that processes other than collisional breakup of asteroidal material begin to supply the population of small objects near the Earth at sizes near 100 m. Tantalizing clues from spectral measurements and orbital associations suggest that these objects may be the debris from extinct, short-period comets.

Rabinowitz, David L.↗

The Meteoroid Environment and Spacecraft

Difference between a meteoroid and asteroid? center dot It's all a matter of size, but there is no formal limit on the size of the biggest meteoroid or smallest asteroid. center dot Generally anything bigger than 10 meters in diameter is considered an asteroid. center dot However, the currently accepted process is that if it is detected in space and given a designation by the Minor Planet Center, it is an asteroid, no matter how big - example: 2008 TC3 is listed as an asteroid, despite being only 2 meters in diameter. Dynamical studies (e.g. Wiegert & Vaubaillon, 2008) indicate that - Helion sources originate mainly from Jupiter family comets (JFCs) - Apex sources from retrograde Halley family comets (HFCs) and long period comets. - Toroidal sources from prograde HFCs? center dot >90% of meteoroids in inner Solar System come from comets. Three main sources - Photographic (Super‐Schmidt) - Specular Radar center dot (Harvard Radio Meteor Project (HRMP) center dot CMOR center dot AMOR - HPLA center dot ALTAIR center dot Jicamarca center dot Arecibo center dot Photographic have lower number statistics and unique biases - Nighttime only - approx. V3.5 dependence on light production - Detection sensitivity is function of angular velocity center dot Radar has different biases - Ionization production also steep function of velocity (V3.5‐4) - Initial trail radius, finite velocity and diffusion attenuation center dot HPLA biases - Still controversy over how much and what sort of biases may or may not be present.

Cooke, William J.↗

Statistical model of meteor streams. IV - A study of radio streams from the synoptic year

The paper gives a detailed description of a search procedure for radio meteor streams and reports the detection of 275 streams in a synoptic-year sample of 19,698 radio meteors observed by the radar system of the Radio Meteor Project at Havana, Illinois. The orbital elements and related parameters of the detected streams are presented, the two parameters of the D-distribution of the streams are determined, and their mean radiants are plotted. Possible associations between the streams and possible parent objects are identified; it is found that streams may be associated with seven periodic comets, five other comets, at least nine asteroids (especially Adonis), and several fireballs. The mean space density in the streams is found to be much lower than the sporadic density, although the central density may be considerably greater than the sporadic density. It is shown that the derived absolute stream-density values are in agreement with the order of magnitude of the space densities estimated from cometary production rates for solid material of comparable particle size.

Sekanina, Z.↗

The Importance of Earth as a Meteor Detector

In order to understand the complex meteoroid environment that threatens spacecraft in near Earth space, ground based observational techniques provide us with an effective option for evaluating the important parameters of flux, speed, mass, density and directionality. While no observational method (in ]situ or ground based detectors) provides bias free measurements of direct quantities, there are several benefits to using the Earth as a detector for calibrating meteoroid models that extend to the inner Solar System and beyond Earth fs orbit. The Earth constantly interacts with meteoritic particles from comets and asteroids as they evolve from their parent objects through dynamical processes. Modeling these dynamical processes with a physics ]based approach can help reveal the causes of observational features but developing those models involves constraining sequences of poorly defined parameters. These parameters must be tuned to a particular detector that offers direct or indirect measurements of mass, density, flux and speed - the quantities used in evaluating penetration risk. The following topics will be discussed: a) Consistency between ground based and in.situ measurements of flux in Earth orbit. b) Consistency between radar and electro.optical speed determinations and agreement of these with dynamical studies. c) The fact that there are six sporadic sources which cannot be determined by integrated line of sight emissivity: Observations using IRAS or COBE cannot give you all important directionality needed for risk evaluations. d) The large collecting area of the Earth s atmosphere compared to in.situ detectors gives better number statistics in the threat regime. The NASA Meteoroid Environment Office utilizes ground based radar and electro.optical measurements to calibrate the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM). As MEM is an engineering design model our main emphasis is on threat size particle, speed, flux and directionality. However, MEM has acknowledged limitations particularly with regard to source strength as a function of mass and work is proceeding with improved distributions that will rectify many of these shortcomings.

Koehler, Heather↗

Meteoroid Bulk Density and Ceplecha Types

Determination of asteroid bulk density is an important aspect of NEO characterization, yet difficult to measure. As a fraction of meteoroids originate from asteroids (including some NEOs), a study of meteoroid bulk densities can potentially provide useful insights into the densities of NEOs and PHOs in lieu of mutual perturbations, satellite, or expensive spacecraft missions. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office characterizes the meteoroid environment for the purpose of spacecraft risk and operations. To accurately determine the risk, a distribution of meteoroid bulk densities are needed. This is not trivial to determine. If the particle survives to the ground the bulk density can be directly measured, however only the most dense particles land on the Earth. The next best approach is to model the meteor's ablation, which is not straightforward. Clear deceleration is necessary to do this and there are discrepancies in results between models. One approach to a distribution of bulk density is to use a measured proxy for the densities, then calibrate the proxy with known densities from meteorite falls, ablation modelling, and other sources. An obvious proxy choice is the Ceplecha type, K(sub B), thought to indicate the strength of a meteoroid. KB is frequented cited as a good proxy for meteoroid densities, but we find it is poorly correlated with density. However, a distinct split by dynamical type was seen with Jovian Tisserand parameter, T(sub J), with meteoroids from Halley Type comets (T(sub J less than 2 ) exhibiting much lower densities than those originating from Jupiter and asteroids (T(sub J greater than 2).

Blaauw, R. C.↗

Large Bodies Associated with Meteoroid Streams

It is now accepted that some near-Earth objects (NEOs) may be dormant or dead comets. One strong indicator of cometary nature is the existence of an associated meteoroid stream with its consequently observed meteor showers. The complexes of NEOs which have very similar orbits and a likely common progenitor have been identified. The theoretical parameters for any meteor shower that may be associated with these complexes were calculated. As a result of a search of existing catalogues of meteor showers, activity has been observed corresponding to each of the theoretically predicted showers was found. We conclude that these asteroid-meteoroid complexes of four NEOs moving within the Piscids stream, three NEOs moving within the Iota Aquariids stream, and six new NEOs added to the Taurid complex are the result of a cometary break-up.

Badadzhanov, P. B.↗

Interplanetary dust: The interstellar connection

Although not proven, there is the widespread belief that comets consist, at least in part, of interstellar material that was originally present in the solar nebula. Furthermore, there are strong arguments in favor of the view that much of the interplanetary dust complex is derived from comets. The main arguments supporting this view are based on mass balance, analysis of the orbital parameters of meteors, and the long known association between meteor showers and specific comets. Laboratory measurements on interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere have confirmed the view that many of the dust particles are primitive in the sense that they show striking enrichments of D/H relative to average solar system materials. It has also been demonstrated that the mid-infrared absorption spectra of one infrared red class of particles show strong similarities to IR sources such as the protostar W-33A. However, the laboratory studies of IDPs have shown that they represent a diverse set of objects and the measurement of the orbital parameters of specific dust particles is essential to answering the question of sources. The observation of the IRAS dust bands reopens the question of the role of asteroids in supplying a significant fraction of the dust and part of the diversity observed may be due to the fact that some of the dust is asteroidal and some cometary. In addition, some fraction of interplanetary dust must consist of an interstellar component intercepted by the solar system in its motion through the local interstellar medium. It has been shown that dust derived from nearby stars will have 75% of their orbits with eccentricities or equal to 1.1 and might be difficult to distinguish from interplanetary dust based on orbital measurements alone.

Carey, W. C.↗

A Southern Hemisphere radar meteor orbit survey

A meteor radar system has been operated on a routine basis near Christchurch, New Zealand, to determine the orbits of Earth-impacting interplanetary dust and meteoroids. The system sensitivity is +13 visual magnitude, corresponding to approximately 100 micron sized meteoroids. With an orbital precision of 2 degrees in angular elements and 10 percent in orbital energy (1/a), the operation yields an average of 1500 orbits daily with a total to date in excess of 10(exp 5). The use of pc's and automated data reduction permit the large orbital data sets we collect to be routinely reduced. Some illustrative examples are presented of the signal formats/processing and the results of data reduction, giving the individual orbital elements and hence the overall distributions. Current studies include the distribution of dust in the inner solar system; the influx of meteoroids associated with near-Earth asteroids; and the orbital structure existing in comet-produced streams.

Baggaley, W. Jack↗

Stratospheric Collection of Dust from Comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3

Interplanetary dust particles (IDPs) collected in the stratosphere are unique materials that are compositionally distinct from meteorites. Astronomical observations and dynamical models indicate that both asteroids and short-period comets are significant sources of IDPs. IDPs having fragile, porous structures, unequilibrated, anhydrous mineralogy, and high atmospheric entry velocities are thought to derive from comets, whereas asteroidal IDPs are identified by their compact structure, hydrated mineralogy and low atmospheric entry velocities. Uncertainty remains in the classification of asteroidal and cometary IDPs owing to our limited sampling of comets and the asteroid belt and the complex dynamical histories of most IDPs in space. Most IDPs spend thousands of years in space prior to being accreted by the Earth. During this time, dust particles undergo orbital evolution, including gradual reduction in their perihelion and eccentricity as a result of Poynting-Robertson drag. Planetary encounters may also significantly change their orbital parameters. Consequently, it is generally not possible to identify the specific parent body of a given IDP. However, it has been proposed that it is possible to identify dust from comets that have formed Earth-crossing dust trails. In this case, the dust particles have been in space for such a short period of time (a few decades or less) that their orbits have not significantly changed. Furthermore, these fresh IDPs could be identified in the laboratory from their short space-exposure histories (low solar noble gas abundance and lack of solar flare tracks). NASA flew several dedicated IDP collection missions attempting to collect dust from comet 26P/Grigg-Skjellerup, the best candidate identified. Remarkably, many particles from those collectors exhibit unusual properties, including low abundances of solar noble gases and high abundances of presolar grains. These observations are consistent with the dust particles originating from comet Grigg-Skjellerup (hereafter G-S). This study considers the prospects for collection of dust from comet 73P/Schwassmann-Wachmann 3 (hereafter SW3). SW3 is a small (2 km diameter) Jupiter family comet whose perihelion is close to and just inside the Earth's orbit. The orbit of SW3 is suitable for producing a low-velocity Earth-crossing dust stream and is the likely parent of the Tau Herculid meteor stream. This study complements a previously published model of the SW3 meteor stream that predicted a very low level of activity for grains 100 micron -- 100 mm in size.

Messenger, Scott R.↗

Detection and Measurement of Micrometeoroids with LISA Pathfinder

The Solar System contains a population of dust and small particles originating from asteroids, comets, and other bodies. These particles have been studied using a number of techniques ranging from in-situ satellite detectors to analysis of lunar microcraters to ground-based observations of zodiacal light. In this paper, we describe an approach for using the LISA Pathfinder (LPF) mission as an instrument to detect and characterize the dynamics of dust particles in the vicinity of Earth-Sun L1. Launched on Dec. 3rd, 2015, LPF is a dedicated technology demonstrator mission that will validate several key technologies for a future space-based gravitational-wave observatory. The primary science instrument aboard LPF is a precision accelerometer which we show will be capable of sensing discrete momentum impulses as small as 4 x 10(exp -8) N s.We then estimate the rate of such impulses resulting from impacts of micrometeoroids based on standard models of the micrometeoroid environment in the inner solar system. We find that LPF may detect dozens to hundreds of individual events corresponding to impacts of particles with masses greater than 10(exp -9) g during LPF's roughly six-month science operations phase in a 5 x 10(exp 5) km by 8 x 10(exp 5) km Lissajous orbit around L1. In addition, we estimate the ability of LPF to characterize individual impacts by measuring quantities such as total momentum transferred, direction of impact, and location of impact on the spacecraft. Information on flux and direction provided by LPF may provide insight as to the nature and origin of the individual impact and help constrain models of the interplanetary dust complex in general. Additionally, this direct in situ measurement of micrometeoroid impacts will be valuable to designers of future spacecraft targeting the environment around L1.

meteoroids – instrumentation: miscellaneous↗