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What Questions Would a Systems Engineer Ask to Assess Systems Engineering Models as Credible

Digital Systems Engineering strategies typically call for digital Systems Engineering models to be retained in repositories and certified as an authoritative source of truth (enabling model reuse, qualification, and collaboration). In order for digital Systems Engineering models to be certified as authoritative (credible), they need to be assessed - verified and validated - and with the amount of uncertainty in the model quantified (consider reusing someone else's model without knowing the author). Due to this increasing model complexity, the authors assert that traditional human-based methods for validating, verifying, and uncertainty quantification - such as human-based peer-review sessions - cannot sufficiently establish that a digital Systems Engineering model of a complex system is credible. Digital Systems Engineering models of complex systems can contain millions of nodes and edges. The authors assert that this level of detail is beyond the ability of any group of humans - even working for weeks at a time - to discern and catch every minor model infraction. In contrast, computers are highly effective at discerning infractions with massive amounts of information. The authors suggest that a better approach might be to focus the humans at what model patterns should be assessed and enable the computer to assess the massive details in accordance with those patterns - by running through perhaps 100,000 test loops. In anticipation of future projects to implement and automate the assessment of models at Sandia National Laboratories, a study was initiated to elicit input from a group of 25 Systems Engineering experts. The authors positioning query began with - 'What questions would a Systems Engineer ask to assess Systems Engineering models for credibility?" This report documents the results of that survey.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The use of subjective expert opinions in cost optimum design of aerospace structures

The results of two questionnaires sent to engineering experts are statistically analyzed and compared with objective data from Saturn V design and testing. Engineers were asked how likely it was for structural failure to occur at load increments above and below analysts' stress limit predictions. They were requested to estimate the relative probabilities of different failure causes, and of failure at each load increment given a specific cause. Three mathematical models are constructed based on the experts' assessment of causes. The experts' overall assessment of prediction strength fits the Saturn V data better than the models do, but a model test option (T-3) based on the overall assessment gives more design change likelihood to overstrength structures than does an older standard test option. T-3 compares unfavorably with the standard option in a cost optimum structural design problem. The report reflects a need for subjective data when objective data are unavailable.

Thomas, J. M.↗

Security System Software

C Language Integration Production System (CLIPS), a NASA-developed expert systems program, has enabled a security systems manufacturer to design a new generation of hardware. C.CURESystem 1 Plus, manufactured by Software House, is a software based system that is used with a variety of access control hardware at installations around the world. Users can manage large amounts of information, solve unique security problems and control entry and time scheduling. CLIPS acts as an information management tool when accessed by C.CURESystem 1 Plus. It asks questions about the hardware and when given the answer, recommends possible quick solutions by non-expert persons.

Source record↗

Support for Systematic Code Reviews with the SCRUB Tool

SCRUB is a code review tool that supports both large, team-based software development efforts (e.g., for mission software) as well as individual tasks. The tool was developed at JPL to support a new, streamlined code review process that combines human-generated review reports with program-generated review reports from a customizable range of state-of-the-art source code analyzers. The leading commercial tools include Codesonar, Coverity, and Klocwork, each of which can achieve a reasonably low rate of false-positives in the warnings that they generate. The time required to analyze code with these tools can vary greatly. In each case, however, the tools produce results that would be difficult to realize with human code inspections alone. There is little overlap in the results produced by the different analyzers, and each analyzer used generally increases the effectiveness of the overall effort. The SCRUB tool allows all reports to be accessed through a single, uniform interface (see figure) that facilitates brows ing code and reports. Improvements over existing software include significant simplification, and leveraging of a range of commercial, static source code analyzers in a single, uniform framework. The tool runs as a small stand-alone application, avoiding the security problems related to tools based on Web browsers. A developer or reviewer, for instance, must have already obtained access rights to a code base before that code can be browsed and reviewed with the SCRUB tool. The tool cannot open any files or folders to which the user does not already have access. This means that the tool does not need to enforce or administer any additional security policies. The analysis results presented through the SCRUB tool s user interface are always computed off-line, given that, especially for larger projects, this computation can take longer than appropriate for interactive tool use. The recommended code review process that is supported by the SCRUB tool consists of three phases: Code Review, Developer Response, and Closeout Resolution. In the Code Review phase, all tool-based analysis reports are generated, and specific comments from expert code reviewers are entered into the SCRUB tool. In the second phase, Developer Response, the developer is asked to respond to each comment and tool-report that was produced, either agreeing or disagreeing to provide a fix that addresses the issue that was raised. In the third phase, Closeout Resolution, all disagreements are discussed in a meeting of all parties involved, and a resolution is made for all disagreements. The first two phases generally take one week each, and the third phase is concluded in a single closeout meeting.

Holzmann, Gerald J.↗

LLMs and GenAI Tools to Depict Contributions of Human Systems to Spaceflight Tasks Execution

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of sophisticated syntax analysis, offer substantial potential in automating complex processes, thereby saving time and human resources. This study explores the development of an LLM-driven model designed to analyze and categorize a diverse set of Mars mission tasks into 18 predefined Human System Task Categories (HSTCs) based on their textual descriptions. As part of developing the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA projects Performance Risk Model (PRisM) proof-of-concept, we established a framework to project performance scores from small-scale tests onto a preliminary list of Mars tasks. The foundation of our model was a comprehensive spreadsheet populated by NASA experts and clinicians, which detailed each Mars task alongside binary indicators of HSTC involvement. This dataset enabled the initial application of supervised ML, training and testing on existing HSTC labels. The HSTCs were originally defined from a medical system perspective, focusing on task impairments due to deteriorated human health. To expand our model's scope to include categories impacting performance, we face the challenge of generating binary labels (0 or 1) for new categories without pre-existing data. We address this by employing Generative AI (GenAI) software to determine whether a given task involved a new category by asking, "Does task A involve using category B?" We validate our approach by comparing the GenAI's binary classifications with the expert-provided labels for existing HSTCs. Notably, we utilize Ollama [4], a locally hosted GenAI tool that does not require cloud access, thus safeguarding NASA's proprietary data from unauthorized exposure. This study demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging cutting-edge AI tools to advance research, paving the way for automation and rapid decision-making in space exploration.

Mona Matar↗

Cost Risk Analysis Based on Perception of the Engineering Process

In most cost estimating applications at the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), it is desirable to present predicted cost as a range of possible costs rather than a single predicted cost. A cost risk analysis generates a range of cost for a project and assigns a probability level to each cost value in the range. Constructing a cost risk curve requires a good estimate of the expected cost of a project. It must also include a good estimate of expected variance of the cost. Many cost risk analyses are based upon an expert's knowledge of the cost of similar projects in the past. In a common scenario, a manager or engineer, asked to estimate the cost of a project in his area of expertise, will gather historical cost data from a similar completed project. The cost of the completed project is adjusted using the perceived technical and economic differences between the two projects. This allows errors from at least three sources. The historical cost data may be in error by some unknown amount. The managers' evaluation of the new project and its similarity to the old project may be in error. The factors used to adjust the cost of the old project may not correctly reflect the differences. Some risk analyses are based on untested hypotheses about the form of the statistical distribution that underlies the distribution of possible cost. The usual problem is not just to come up with an estimate of the cost of a project, but to predict the range of values into which the cost may fall and with what level of confidence the prediction is made. Risk analysis techniques that assume the shape of the underlying cost distribution and derive the risk curve from a single estimate plus and minus some amount usually fail to take into account the actual magnitude of the uncertainty in cost due to technical factors in the project itself. This paper addresses a cost risk method that is based on parametric estimates of the technical factors involved in the project being costed. The engineering process parameters are elicited from the engineer/expert on the project and are based on that expert's technical knowledge. These are converted by a parametric cost model into a cost estimate. The method discussed makes no assumptions about the distribution underlying the distribution of possible costs, and is not tied to the analysis of previous projects, except through the expert calibrations performed by the parametric cost analyst.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operators using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, D. S.↗

Autonomous Diagnostic Imaging Performed by Untrained Operator Using Augmented Reality as a Form of "Just-in-Time" Training

We will address the Human Factors and Performance Team, "Risk of performance errors due to training deficiencies" by improving the JIT training materials for ultrasound and OCT imaging by providing advanced guidance in a detailed, timely, and user-friendly manner. Specifically, we will (1) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR that guides non-experts through an abdominal trauma ultrasound protocol; (2) develop an audio-visual tutorial using AR to guide an untrained operator through the acquisition of OCT images; (3) evaluate the quality of abdominal ultrasound and OCT images acquired by untrained operators using AR guidance compared to images acquired using traditional JIT techniques (laptop-based training conducted before image acquisition); and (4) compare the time required to complete imaging studies using AR tutorials with images acquired using current JIT practices to identify areas for time efficiency improvements. Two groups of subjects will be recruited to participate in this study. Operator-subjects, without previous experience in ultrasound or OCT, will be asked to perform both procedures using either the JIT training with AR technology or the traditional JIT training via laptop. Images acquired by inexperienced operator-subjects will be scored by experts in that imaging modality for diagnostic and research quality; experts will be blinded to the form of JIT used to acquire the images. Operator-subjects also will be asked to submit feedback to improve the training modules used during the scans to improve future training modules. Scanned-subjects will be a small group individuals from whom all images will be acquired.

Martin, David S.↗

Review of FEWS NET Biophysical Monitoring Requirements

The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users: it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and; subsequently, beneficial FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world, enabling a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard: that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand, and that rainfall and vegetation products were valued as data that provide actionable food security information.

Ross, K. W.↗

The automated Army ROTC Questionnaire (ARQ)

The Reserve Officer Training Corps Cadet Command (ROTCCC) takes applications for its officer training program from college students and Army enlisted personnel worldwide. Each applicant is required to complete a set of application forms prior to acceptance into the ROTC program. These forms are covered by several regulations that govern the eligibility of potential applicants and guide the applicant through the application process. Eligibility criteria changes as Army regulations are periodically revised. Outdated information results in a loss of applications attributable to frustration and error. ROTCCC asked for an inexpensive and reliable way of automating their application process. After reviewing the process, it was determined that an expert system with good end user interface capabilities could be used to solve a large part of the problem. The system captures the knowledge contained within the regulations, enables the quick distribution and implementation of eligibility criteria changes, and distributes the expertise of the admissions personnel to the education centers and colleges. The expert system uses a modified version of CLIPS that was streamlined to make the most efficient use of its capabilities. A user interface with windowing capabilities provides the applicant with a simple and effective way to input his/her personal data.

Young, David L. H.↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 3: Community-Guided Energy Equity Strategies

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. Chapters 1 and 2 target the problem space - the causal factors, impact areas, and values affecting LA's energy justice landscape. This chapter threads those themes through to begin focusing on the solution space. We examine community-identified problems and solutions through the lens of recognition and procedural justice, presenting analysis and strategies that form the basis for more equitable outcomes in LA's energy transition. In our listening sessions, underserved Angelenos highlighted the need to transition away from the status quo one participant described as "transactional extraction of information to check the box. To say yes, we engaged." She asked the LA Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to approach her community with respect and transparency, stating, "We consider you all to be experts in your community, and we'd like to authentically engage with you in the decision-making process. So, I do think there needs to be some intentional actions for that rapport building and that trust building." The community-informed analysis and strategies described in this chapter, which are foundational to the LA100 Equity Strategies project, rise to the challenge of engaging authentically to build rapport, establish relationships of respect, and meaningfully involve Angelenos in the decision-making process. LADWP is already making concerted efforts to redress a disproportionate distribution of investments in physical infrastructure and energy efficient technologies in Los Angeles. This chapter concentrates on the challenge to further rectify past and ongoing inequities in the social, cultural, and institutional scaffolding of Los Angeles. We examine community-guided strategies to tackle this challenge, informed by community input on how all Angelenos can equitably access green jobs and affordable, safe, and resilient energy services, technologies, and programs. These actionable strategies can help move energy equity programs from plans to applied practices, supporting LADWP in launching a just and equitable clean energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

ASK Magazine

What makes a successful team? In this issue our contributors look closely at the subject and come up with several answers. Working on team chemistry is the "Activation Energy" Dr. Owen Gadeken's story is about. Scott Cameron thinks it's getting to know people one to one. Tony Maturo says it's getting the most out of your support staff. Dr. Michael Hecht finds the best people he can and build the team around their talents. Teamwork is a theme we explore often in Academy Sharing Knowledge (ASK), but never so directly as in this issue. You'll not only find formulas for building successful teams, you'll see examples of ones in action, strategies for how project managers can motivate their teams, and expert advice on how to choose who to work with and who not to work with. It seems like all the stories make one common point: everyone on a team counts. Few project managers can pull off a project alone, and when the whole team is performing to everyone's potential, the chances of pulling off a successful project goes up exponentially. If that doesn't seem like enough by itself, listen to this... Discerning fans of ASK will note the last two issues our Special Feature was "There are no Mistakes, Only Lessons." We have not abandoned this feature, but for now we want to broaden our repertoire. In this issue we add a new Special Feature, "My Metaphor," starting with Paul Espinosa's article "My Big Wall" about his rock climbing adventures on El Capitan in Yosemite National Park. If you think getting to Mars is work, read what it's like to scale a 3,000-foot rock face. This issue we're also welcoming two new members to our Review Board, Hugh Woodward and Jody Kusek. Hugh and Jody are our first reviewers from outside NASA, and we are delighted to have them on our team. Read their bios on the ASK Review Board page and see why we feel privileged to have them on our team.

Post, Todd↗

Human Factors Engineering: Current and Emerging Dual-Use Applications

Human Factors Engineering is a multidisciplinary endeavor in which information pertaining to human characteristics is used in the development of systems and machines. Six representatives considered to be experts from the public and private sectors were surveyed in an effort to identify the potential dual-use of human factors technology. Each individual was asked to provide a rating as to the dual-use of 85 identified NASA technologies. Results of the survey were as follows: nearly 75 percent of the technologies were identified at least once as high dual-use by one of the six survey respondents, and nearly 25 percent of the identified NASA technologies were identified as high dual-use technologies by a majority of the respondents. The perceived level of dual-use appeared to be independent of the technology category. Successful identification of dual-use technology requires expanded input from industry. As an adjunct, cost-benefit analysis should be conducted to identify the feasibility of the dual-use technology. Concurrent with this effort should be an examination of precedents established by other technologies in other industrial settings. Advances in human factors and systems engineering are critical to reduce risk in any workplace and to enhance industrial competitiveness.

Chandlee, G. O.↗

International Space Exploration Coordination Group Assessment of Technology Gaps for Dust Mitigation for the Global Exploration Roadmap

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) formed two Gap Assessment teams to evaluate topic discipline areas that had not been worked at an international level to date. Accordingly, the ISECG Technology Working Group (TWG) recommended two discipline areas based on Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) Critical Technology Needs reflected within the GER Technology Development Map (GTDM): Dust Mitigation and LOX/Methane Propulsion, with this paper addressing the former. The ISECG approved the recommended Gap Assessment teams, and tasked the TWG to formulate the new teams with subject matter experts (SMEs) from the participating agencies. The participating agencies for the Dust Mitigation Gap Assessment Team were ASI, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and NASA. The team was asked to identify and make a presentation on technology gaps related to the GER2 mission scenario (including cislunar and lunar mission themes and long-lead items for human exploration of Mars) at the international level. In addition the team was tasked to produce a gap assessment in the form of a summary report and presentation identifying those GER Critical Technology Needs, including opportunities for international coordination and cooperation in closing the identified gaps. Dust is still a principal limiting factor in returning to the lunar surface for missions of any extended duration. However, viable technology solutions have been identified, but need maturation to be available to support both lunar and Mars missions.

dust↗

International Space Exploration Coordination Group Assessment of Technology Gaps for Dust Mitigation for the Global Exploration Roadmap

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) formed two Gap Assessment teams to evaluate topic discipline areas that had not been worked at an international level to date. Accordingly, the ISECG Technology Working Group (TWG) recommended two discipline areas based on Global Exploration Roadmap (GER) Critical Technology Needs reflected within the GER Technology Development Map (GTDM): Dust Mitigation and LOX/Methane Propulsion, with this paper addressing the former. The ISECG approved the recommended Gap Assessment teams, and tasked the TWG to formulate the new teams with subject matter experts (SMEs) from the participating agencies. The participating agencies for the Dust Mitigation Gap Assessment Team were ASI, CSA, ESA, JAXA, and NASA. The team was asked to identify and make a presentation on technology gaps related to the GER2 mission scenario (including cislunar and lunar mission themes and long-lead items for human exploration of Mars) at the international level. In addition the team was tasked to produce a gap assessment in the form of a summary report and presentation identifying those GER Critical Technology Needs, including opportunities for international coordination and cooperation in closing the identified gaps. Dust is still a principal limiting factor in returning to the lunar surface for missions of any extended duration. However, viable technology solutions have been identified, but need maturation to be available to support both lunar and Mars missions.

dust↗

Writing as decision-making

The need to teach informational writing as a decision-making process is discussed. Situational analysis, its relationship to decisions in writing, and the need for relevant assignments are considered. Teaching students to ask the right questions is covered. The need to teach writing responsiveness is described. Three steps to get started and four teaching techniques are described. The information needs of the 'expert' and the 'manager' are contrasted.

Souther, J. W.↗

Global Overview of Energy Storage Performance Test Protocols

As part of the World Bank Energy Storage Partnership, this document seeks to provide support and knowledge to a set of stakeholders across the developing world as we all seek to analyze the emerging opportunities and technologies for energy storage in the electric sector. As global prices for renewable energy have dropped dramatically over the last decade and continue to decline and the value of energy storage has increased in many systems, the World Bank technical teams and others have been hearing of a variety of problems. Related, developing countries have been asking a series of questions in this new area. This working group seeks to address the issues raised in part by creating this document and working to gather a variety of experts in this area from across the globe in support of the World Bank efforts. Performance testing, in combination with test beds (Working Group 2), is critical to fulfill the promise offered by these breakthrough technologies and critical to increasing trust in these systems and reducing risk. This document seeks to provide information to stakeholders in developing countries on the current global performance testing landscape of the battery (and broader) performance testing landscape. This document does that by summarizing testing protocols published by key global entities. From this summary, it can be concluded that there are several organizations within each region that set protocols for the testing and specifications of stationary energy storage systems. Across most of these entities, there are extensive protocols for testing batteries for electrical vehicles and mobile devices, but less for large scale energy storage system and their usage cases. The working group and the Partnership more generally agree that the nascent markets for certain technologies and rapid growth make testing more important than ever as these markets continue to mature. This document also seeks to provide a set of "guideposts" to new entrants by pointing out some of the key organizations globally that are currently engaged in performance testing of energy storage systems (often batteries but the larger organizations are likely to engage in tailored tests for emerging thermal and other storage technologies).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Exploration Exercise System (EES) Development

Exploration class missions will be required to have an exercise device that is lightweight, has a small footprint, and is capable of providing enough physical stimulus and exercise variability to be an effective countermeasure against muscle and bone loss that results from the microgravity environment. Exploration exercise device prototypes should be evaluated on the ground and in-orbit for feasibility of use in microgravity for long and short duration exploration missions and efficacy of the device to maintain multi-system health and performance. The European Enhanced Exploration Exercise Device (E4D) was selected as the exploration prototype device to be evaluated on ISS for efficacy and feasibility of use as a single multi-modality device for the exercise system for exploration missions. This effort supports the continued development, testing, and verification of E4D hardware and software, internal NASA integration (Human Health and Performance, ISS Vehicle Office, Engineering, and Flight Operations), and external integration across NASA, ESA, and the Danish Aerospace Company (DAC). Providing a feasibility and acceptability assessment from a physiological efficacy and hardware durability standpoint are critical for informing use and risk associated with use on exploration missions. Clearly defined objectives from end users, stakeholders, and Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) will be tested by crewmembers during acute use sessions and long duration use of the exercise device while on ISS. This effort will include a flight study where crewmembers will be asked to exercise using only the E4D during the duration of their mission and participate in a battery of physiological testing to evaluate the efficacy. Hardware is scheduled to launch in FY25 followed by 2 years of operational use after activation and checkout. A final recommendation will be provided to the Artemis program on acceptability of the device for exploration missions. The E4D needs a vibration isolation stabilization (VIS) system that serves as a platform for the exercise hardware to protect the vehicle from loads imparted during exercise. Exploration forward VIS systems will need to protect the vehicle and provide sufficient stabilization for the exerciser during performance of all critical exercises. These enabling capabilities need to be achieved within exploration vehicle power, thermal, mass, and volume limitations.

Kent Lawrence Kalogera↗