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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial correlation heating in PIC simulations

The Particle-in-Cell (PIC) method, a cornerstone in plasma modeling, is widely employed for its ability to simulate kinetic phenomena in device-scale domains. Part of what makes this possible is that computational macroparticles represent many physical particles. It converges under certain constraints, including a grid spacing that resolves the Debye length and a time step small enough to respect the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition and plasma frequency stability limit. Here, we introduce a new constraint necessary to avoid Artificial Correlation Heating (ACH). This requires that the macroparticle coupling strength be smaller than one, Γ ω < 1, where Γ ω ≡ Γω 2/3 ⁠, Γ = Z 2 e 2 /(4πε 0 ak B T) is the physical coupling strength, and w is the macroparticle weight. This is particularly relevant to 3D simulations of dense plasmas, which are becoming common with modern computing power. If this condition is violated, the finite macroparticle weight artificially enhances the coupling strength and causes the plasma to heat until the macroparticle coupling strength is near unity, depending on the grid resolution. A comprehensive model of ACH is developed that incorporates electron density, temperature, macroparticle weight, and grid resolution. It is then tested using PIC simulations, delineating the boundaries of the method's applicability and offering a predictive framework for ACH. Moreover, the research explores a runaway heating process induced by ACH in the presence of ionization, which can lead to numerical instability. A conclusion of this study is that the onset of ACH can impose a more stringent constraint on the macroparticle weight and average number of macroparticles per cell than what is typically expected, particularly in 3D simulations of dense plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effects of artificial collisions, filtering, and nonlocal closure approaches on Hermite-based Vlasov–Poisson simulations

Kinetic simulations of collisionless plasmas are computationally challenging due to phase-space mixing and filamentation, resulting in fine-scale velocity structures. This study compares three methods developed to reduce artifacts related to limited velocity resolution in Hermite-based Vlasov–Poisson simulations: artificial collisions, filtering, and nonlocal closure approaches. We evaluate each method's performance in approximating the linear kinetic response function and suppressing recurrence in linear and nonlinear regimes. Numerical simulations of Landau damping demonstrate that artificial collisions, particularly higher orders of the Lenard-Bernstein collisional operator, most effectively recover the correct damping rate across a range of wavenumbers. Moreover, Hou-Li filtering and nonlocal closures underdamp high wavenumber modes in linear simulations, and the Lenard-Bernstein collisional operator overdamps low wavenumber modes in both linear and nonlinear simulations. This study demonstrates that hypercollisions offer a robust approach to kinetic simulations, accurately capturing collisionless dynamics with limited velocity resolution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Axisymmetric hydrodynamics in numerical relativity: treating coordinate singularity, artificial heating and modeling MHD instabilities

Two-dimensional axisymmetric simulations of binary neutron star (BNS) merger remnant are a cheap alternative to 3D simulations. To maintain realism for secular timescales, simulations must avoid accumulated errors from drifts in conserved quantities and artificial heating, and they must model turbulent transport in a way that remains plausible throughout the evolution. It is also crucial to avoid numerical artifacts due to the polar coordinate axis singularity. Methods that behave well near the axis often break flux-conservative form of the hydrodynamic equations, resulting in significant drifts in conserved quantities. We present a flux-conservative scheme that maintains smoothness near the axis without sacrificing conservative formulation of the equations or incurring drifts in conserved global quantities. We compare the numerical performance of different treatments of the hydrodynamic equations when evolving a hypermassive neutron star resembling the remnant of a BNS merger. These simulations demonstrate that the new scheme combines the axis smoothness of non-conservative methods with the mass and angular momentum conservation of other conservative methods on $\sim 10^2$ ms timescales of viscous and neutrino-driven evolution. Because fluid profiles remain smooth in the remnant interior, it is possible to remove artificial heating by evolving the entropy density. We show how physical heating and cooling terms can be easily calculated from source terms of the conservative evolution variables and demonstrate our implementation. Finally, we discuss and implement improvements to the effective viscosity scheme to better model the effect of magnetohydrodynamic instabilities as the remnant evolves.

axisymmetry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Artificial Intelligence Ontology: LLM-Assisted Construction of AI Concept Hierarchies

The Artificial Intelligence Ontology (AIO) is a systematization of artificial intelligence (AI) concepts, methodologies, and their interrelations. Developed via manual curation, with the additional assistance of large language models (LLMs), AIO aims to address the rapidly evolving landscape of AI by providing a comprehensive framework that encompasses both technical and ethical aspects of AI technologies. The primary audience for AIO includes AI researchers, developers, and educators seeking standardized terminology and concepts within the AI domain. We use the term “branches” for classes, and their subclasses, in our ontology that are subclasses of owl:Thing. AIO contains eight branches: Bias, Layer, Machine Learning Task, Mathematical Function, Model, Network, Preprocessing, and Training Strategy, each designed to support the modular composition of AI methods and facilitate a deeper understanding of deep learning architectures and ethical considerations in AI. AIO uses the Ontology Development Kit (ODK) for its creation and maintenance, with its content being more easily updated through AI-driven curation support. This approach not only ensures the ontology's relevance amidst the fast-paced advancements in AI but also significantly enhances its utility for researchers, developers, and educators by simplifying the integration of new AI concepts and methodologies. The ontology's utility is demonstrated through the annotation of AI methods data in a catalog of AI research publications and the integration into the BioPortal ontology resource, highlighting its potential for cross-disciplinary research. The AIO ontology is open source and is available on GitHub ( https://w3id.org/aio/ ) and BioPortal ( https://bioportal.bioontology.org/ontologies/AIO ).

Joachimiak, Marcin P. [Biosystems Data Science Dep↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence for Data Center Operations (AIOps): Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)

High performance computing data centers will increasingly need to rely on automation to keep pace with exascale growth in compute capability and to manage and optimize the data center environment and facility resources. Artificial intelligence and machine learning approaches provide the means to improve HPC data center operational efficiency, by learning historical trends and training models to operate on real-time data collected from both IT and facilities sources. NREL has developed methods of real-time collection, aggregation and streaming of these data in the ESIF HPC Data Center and has collected a significant dataset of relevant metrics across computer systems, racks, environmental, building and utility sources for research into various predictive analytics problems. HPE's Advanced Technology Group (ATG) is doing comprehensive research into exascale monitoring and management for High Performance Computing (HPC) systems (hereinafter HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management Technology). NREL and HPE will collaborate to add Artificial Intelligence (AI) to NREL's real-time data collection/ aggregation/ streaming system and HPE's Data Monitoring/ Management System, with the goal of improving the operational efficiency of NREL's Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) HPC Data Center through data analytics on both historical and real-time data from IT systems and facilities operations. This collaboration will consist of efforts in Data Management, Data Analytics, and AI/ML Optimization for both manual and autonomous intervention in data center operations. This will be a multi-year, multi-staged effort with a goal towards building capabilities for an Advanced Smart Facility, and demonstration of these techniques in the NREL ESIF HPC Data Center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Abbr. Final report: Self-assembled molecular containers as artificial water channels: towards biomimetic desalination membranes

Global water scarcity demands advances in desalination technologies that can deliver more fresh water with less energy. Current reverse osmosis membranes are fundamentally limited by a trade-off between how much water they can pass and how well they block salts. To address this challenge, we developed a bottom-up strategy to design and test artificial water channels that mimic the efficiency of biological proteins but are built from robust synthetic molecules. Over two years, we synthesized and evaluated more than twenty molecular channel candidates, including supramolecular macrocycles and nanographene pores with atomically precise structures. We showed that small chemical modifications allow direct control over pore size and chemistry, which in turn govern water permeability and salt rejection. In collaboration with university partners, we reported the first experimental demonstration of water transport through a nanographene pore, bridging a long-standing gap between simulation and experiment. Several of the artificial channels we developed achieved water–salt selectivity beyond conventional polymer membranes, highlighting their potential for next-generation desalination and precision separations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searching for Phase Transitions in Artificial Kagome Spin Ice

Artificial Kagome spin ice is a metasurface consisting of small islands of polarizable magnets. These islands can be oriented by an external magnetic field applied in the same plane as the metasurface. By subsequently applying a relatively weaker field in the opposite direction of the initial field, a portion of the magnets in the lattice can be repolarized or “flipped” the other way. These flips cause instabilities in a previously uniformly aligned lattice, causing the system to interact with itself and induce changes in the overall magnetization of the metasurface. This Summer, my goal was to use this phenomenon to discern whether or not these systems could undergo a phase transition caused only by the initial change of the external magnetic field. Based on previous datasets that indicated that such a transition was observable, my task was to find and reproduce this potential phenomena. This process was conducted by repeating measurements on the system by using an external magnet to align the spin ice and then using Magnetic Force Microscopy (MFM) to probe the surface of the material to understand the changes in the magnetization over time. This report will discuss the characteristics of artificial Kagome spin ice, the methodology used to induce phase transitions, and the image processing methods used to understand the results. Although no reproducible evidence of a phase transition was found during the Summer, we were able to successfully reproduce short-term responses in the spin ice, as well as plot a hysteresis curve of the material.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Novel Eutectic Alloys

The goal of this project was to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the fractional composition and melting point of eutectic alloys using fundamental atomic properties as inputs. The fundamental properties considered include atomic number, atomic weight, atomic radius, valence electron concentration, electronegativity, and electron affinity. The project involved several phases, starting with data preparation, where phase diagram data was harvested from the ASM International database. Approximately 1300 binary eutectics were collected and cleaned to ensure relevance and accuracy. A regression model was selected for training, utilizing a rectified linear unit as the activation function. Various model configurations were evaluated for predictive accuracy, with validation techniques employed to ensure robustness. The model demonstrated predictive capabilities above random guessing and was able to achieve up to 11% accuracy under certain conditions. An ablative test identified atomic radius and valence electron concentration as critical inputs for model performance. Incorporating the melting point of atomic constituents improved accuracy significantly, although ultimately the model’s predictive capability still fell short of the 80% target. This report details the methodology, results, and implications of the research, contributing to the understanding of employing artificial intelligence to predict the phase transition behavior of eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Commercial integration of advanced nuclear energy with Artificial Intelligence (AI): Possible implications

The integration of advanced nuclear technologies (both fission and fusion) with artificial intelligence (AI) presents unprecedented national security challenges and opportunities. As fusion energy approaches commercial viability alongside advanced Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), their integration with AI and Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems could fundamentally transform the global energy and AI landscapes — two pillars of national security. This document briefly examines how AI could accelerate nuclear energy development and deployment while altering existing power structures, a lot could be done to deepen the discussions. Simultaneously, it observes how nuclear-powered AI may expedite advances toward AGI and beyond. These issues are deeply interconnected and thus need to be examined as a whole and more comprehensively than what’s being summarized here. For instance, AI-powered autonomous operation of nuclear facilities could reduce human error but introduce new cybersecurity vulnerabilities and uncertainties. Further investigation would also address how AI-enhanced nuclear technologies might complicate proliferation concerns through advanced fuel cycle management, nuclear materials production and safeguard. The strategic advantage gained by first entities achieving successful AI-nuclear integration could reshape global and national security framework. Timely analysis of these implications may be crucial for policymakers seeking to harness these technologies' benefits while effectively mitigating their potential risks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comparison of Artificial Compressibility Methods for Coupled Laminar Fluid Flow and Heat Transfer

Artificial compressibility (AC) methods for incompressible flows perturb the mass continuity equation by the time derivative of the pressure field to achieve direct coupling between pressure and velocity without the need for a projection method. Several variations of the original AC method have been proposed (e.g., the entropically damped artificial compressibility [EDAC] method) that can, in some scenarios, improve on the original model. In this paper, we methodically compare the results of the original AC model and the EDAC model for both steady-state and transient problems with coupling between the momentum and energy equations. We demonstrate that the EDAC model and the AC model yield similar numerical results, and the EDAC model is 10%-20% faster than the AC model for a given problem.

Oz, Furkan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000265831724)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reimagining metal-organic framework discovery: Integrating experiment, computation, and artificial intelligence

The traditional development of novel metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) is often hindered by challenges such as synthetic accessibility and time- and resource-intensive experimentation. High-throughput, automated experimental and computational techniques have enabled rapid chemical space exploration and theoretical MOF design. When combined with artificial intelligence (AI), these methods can be used to lead autonomous laboratories to new frontiers for MOF discovery, where these materials can be designed for a specific application, efficiently synthesized, characterized, and evaluated. Here, this perspective highlights the role of AI in advancing automated MOF synthesis and characterization, computational MOF design and screening, and the integration of these approaches within autonomous workflows to ultimately enable the MOF laboratories of the future.

Gaidimas, Madeleine A. [Northwestern University, E↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predictive model using artificial neural network to design phase change material-based ocean thermal energy harvesting systems for powering uncrewed underwater vehicles

Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles (UUVs) are a major beneficiary of the phase change material (PCM)-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology for their mission needs. However, this technology relies on different parameters and energy conversion steps that could be critical to the general energy generation efficiency. Sea trials showed that the design performed lower than their laboratory design specifications. This underperformance results from different factors, mainly the UUV’s trajectory, travel time, underwater ocean currents, temperature fluctuations, and biofouling on the heat exchanger due to long term underwater operations. Therefore, there exists a need to continuously monitor the ambient energy harvesting system and predict system performance, for mission planning purposes. Two major parameters influencing the energy harvesting system include the final pressure inside the hydraulic energy storage vessel or accumulator, and the electrical load value. Here, this work focuses on the hydraulic to electric energy conversion system. Therefore, a combination of numerical model and experimental testing is used to develop a predictive model using artificial neural network using MATLAB. After validation with experimental testing, 1000 data samples obtained from the numerical model are used to train the ANN. Compared to the experimental results, the developed ANN model can predict in less than a second the designed benchtop system’s total efficiency with less than 15 percent maximum error range. This predictive model development represents a cost-effective way for optimization and a computational energy efficient mode aboard UUVs for mission planning for deployed UUVs using PCM-based ocean thermal energy harvesting technology.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

From sequence to protein structure and conformational dynamics with artificial intelligence/machine learning

The 2024 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded in part for de novo protein structure prediction using AlphaFold2, an artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) model trained on vast amounts of sequence and three-dimensional structure data. AlphaFold2 and related models, including RoseTTAFold and ESMFold, employ specialized neural network architectures driven by attention mechanisms to infer relationships between sequence and structure. At a fundamental level, these AI/ML models operate on the long-standing hypothesis that the structure of a protein is determined by its amino acid sequence. More recently, AlphaFold2 has been adapted for the prediction of multiple protein conformations by subsampling multiple sequence alignments. Herein, we provide an overview of the deterministic relationship between sequence and structure, which was hypothesized over half a century ago with profound implications for the biological sciences ever since. We postulate that protein conformational dynamics are also determined, at least in part, by amino acid sequence and that this relationship may be leveraged for construction of AI/ML models dedicated to predicting protein conformational ensembles. Accordingly, we describe a conceptual model architecture, which may be trained on sequence data in combination with conformationally sensitive structural information, coming primarily from nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy. Notwithstanding certain limitations in this context, NMR offers abundant structural heterogeneity conducive to conformational ensemble prediction. As NMR and other data continue to accumulate, sequence-informed prediction of protein structural dynamics with AI/ML has the potential to emerge as a transformative capability across the biological sciences.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Human Factors Considerations in Artificial Intelligence Applications for Nuclear Power Plants

In recent years, there has been a wave of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies that offer to solve problems from shopping habits to mortgage approvals to critical systems operations. The rapidity of the development of these systems has led to both excitement and apprehension about the roles these systems should play in our modern societies. Furthermore, this paper focuses on the critical infrastructure industry, in general, and nuclear power generation, in particular, and seeks to scrutinize how we can leverage these novel technologies in human-centered ways to maintain or enhance the established high levels of reliability and resilience in these industries. First, we discuss the broader aspects of cognitive systems and activities that are critical to understanding the human-AI space. Then we explore different approaches to explainability in AI and the notions of trust. We then move on to discuss several human factors concepts and methods and how they can support the design of human-AI teams. We then explore recent research related to nuclear power that has been undertaken and evaluate the current industry and regulatory landscapes. Finally, we discuss identified research gaps and recommendations for solving these for the critical infrastructure space.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗