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Archway for Radiation and Micrometeorite Occurrence Resistance

The environmental conditions of the Moon require mitigation if a long-term human presence is to be achieved for extended periods of time. Radiation, micrometeoroid impacts, high-velocity debris, and thermal cycling represent threats to crew, equipment, and facilities. For decades, local regolith has been suggested as a candidate material to use in the construction of protective barriers. A thickness of roughly 3m is sufficient protection from both direct and secondary radiation from cosmic rays and solar protons; this thickness is sufficient to reduce radiation exposure even during solar flares. NASA has previously identified a need for innovations that will support lunar habitats using lightweight structures because the reduction of structural mass translates directly into additional up and down mass capability that would facilitate additional logistics capacity and increased science return for all mission phases. The development of non-pressurized primary structures that have synergy with the development of pressurized structures is also of interest. The use of indigenous or in situ materials is also a well-known and active area of research that could drastically improve the practicality of human exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. The Archway for Radiation and Micrometeorite Occurrence Resistance (ARMOR) concept is a new, multifunctional structure that acts as radiation shielding and micrometeorite impact shielding for long-duration lunar surface protection of humans and equipment. ARMOR uses a combination of native regolith and a deployed membrane jacket to yield a multifunctional structure. ARMOR is a robust and modular system that can be autonomously assembled on-site prior to the first human surface arrival. The system provides protection by holding a sufficiently thick (3 m) archshaped shell of local regolith around a central cavity. The regolith is held in shape by an arch-shaped jacket made of strong but deployable material. No regolith processing is required. During the regolith filling process, an inflatable structure under the arch supports the mass of the regolith, but once regolith filling is complete the catenary arch formed by the regolith and the jacket becomes self-supporting and the inflatable can be deflated and removed. When complete, habitat modules and equipment can be moved into the protected cavity under the arch. ARMOR is a nearterm system that would provide a reliable and robust lightweight structure technology to support large lunar habitats, drastically lower launch mass, and improve efficient volume use, reducing launch costs.

Giersch, Louis R.↗

Ceramic composite protection for turbine disc bursts

Ceramic composite turbine disc protection panels for the A300B were developed using armor technology. Analytical predictions for modifying the ballistic projectile armor system were verified by a test program conducted to qualify the rotor containment system. With only a slight change in the areal density of the armor system a more than two-fold increase in kinetic energy protection level was achieved. Thickness of the fiberglass reinforced plastic backing material was increased to achieve an optimum ratio of ceramic thickness to backing thickness for the different ballistic defeat condition.

Gardner, P. B.↗

Analysis of Thick Sandwich Shells with Embedded Ceramic Tiles

The Composite Armored Vehicle (CAV) is an advanced technology demonstrator of an all-composite ground combat vehicle. The CAV upper hull is made of a tough light-weight S2-glass/epoxy laminate with embedded ceramic tiles that serve as armor. The tiles are bonded to a rubber mat with a carefully selected, highly viscoelastic adhesive. The integration of armor and structure offers an efficient combination of ballistic protection and structural performance. The analysis of this anisotropic construction, with its inherent discontinuous and periodic nature, however, poses several challenges. The present paper describes a shell-based 'element-layering' technique that properly accounts for these effects and for the concentrated transverse shear flexibility in the rubber mat. One of the most important advantages of the element-layering technique over advanced higher-order elements is that it is based on conventional elements. This advantage allows the models to be portable to other structural analysis codes, a prerequisite in a program that involves the computational facilities of several manufacturers and government laboratories. The element-layering technique was implemented into an auto-layering program that automatically transforms a conventional shell model into a multi-layered model. The effects of tile layer homogenization, tile placement patterns, and tile gap size on the analysis results are described.

Davila, Carlos G.↗

Ways to Increase Launch Velocities of 2-Stage Gas Guns

The amount of space debris is rapidly increasing and the debris is distributed over a wide variety of orbits. Satellites, manned space vehicles and space stations will have to pay increasing attention to the dangers of impacts with space debris. Various armoring techniques (i.e., double or triple layer armor) will have to tested extensively to determine the most effective armor per unit weight. Intersecting near-earth orbits can lead to impact velocities up to 15 km/sec. Conventional two-stage light gas guns can launch intact, controlled-shape projectiles with a density of 1.2 gm/cc and length- to-diameter ratios of 0.5-1.0 at velocities up to 8-9 km/sec. Higher velocities (10-11 km/sec) can be obtained' for very light projectiles. The higher launch velocities tend to be very severe on the high pressure coupling and barrel of the gun and lead to short component lifetimes. Clearly, the ability to raise the launch velocity of a gun (for reasonably massive projectile shapes) from 8-9 km/sec to 11-13 km/sec (or higher), without reduction of component lifetimes, would have significant benefits. This would allow much better simulation of the higher velocity debris impacts as well as better simulation of high speed re-entry into planetary atmospheres. Several techniques for increasing the launcher muzzle velocity above 8-9 km/sec have been studied using CFD simulations and appear to offer the potential for significant gains. The first technique is to use multiple compressions, instead of a single compression, in the pump tube of the light gas gun. In a sense, this is a kind of pre-heating of the gas in the pump tube; other types of pre-heating have yielded disappointing results in the past. The dynamics of the multiple compression pump tube is very different, however, from the earlier techniques, where the pump tube was typically heated ohmically before the gun 2 cycle was started. In this paper, we present CFD calculations that show that significant increases in muzzle velocity can be obtained with multiple compressions in the pump tube. With a conventional two-stage gun, an important limitation to obtaining higher velocities is friction and heat transfer to the barrel, which typically has a length- to- diameter ratio of 200-400. These viscous losses greatly reduce the effectiveness of the regions of the barrel far removed from the second stage breech. We have studied computationally the effect of adding an additional breech (or breeches) along the barrel to reduce these viscous losses. Velocity increases from 6.5 to 7.2 km/sec have been obtained using the main breech and one additional breech. In these results, both breeches were operated with hydrogen, heated electrothermally. We have also studied a gun geometry where the main breech is operated in the conventional manner, using piston compression. The additional breech is operated either with electrothermal heating or heating by using a high explosive charge in a novel geometry. The latter option provides very effective compression, heating and acceleration of the hydrogen working gas and is fully reusable. Calculations are presented which show that very substantial increases in muzzle velocity can be obtained this way, without overstressing the projectile or the 'gun. The third technique studied is to add a section of ram accelerator tube after the barrel to further accelerate the projectile. The ram accelerator used here is not the conventional premixed gas ram accelerator, but a new technique using high explosive as the energy source and pure hydrogen as the working gas in a geometry which can be made fully reusable. Preliminary results with this new rain accelerator geometry were presented and showed that stable ram accelerator drive can be established. Herein, detailed calculations axe presented which show that substantial velocity increases can be obtained using this ram accelerator technique in tandem with a conventional light gas gun.

Bogdanoff, David W.↗

Drop Size Distribution Measurements Supporting the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Infrastructure and Preliminary Results

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets that characterize the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (5 -- 50 km). Key to this process is the combined use of disdrometer and polarimetric radar platforms. Here the disdrometer measurements serve as a reference for up-scaling dual-polarimetric radar observations of the PSD to the much larger volumetric sampling domain of the radar. The PSD observations thus derived provide a much larger data set for assessing DSD variability, and satellite-based precipitation retrieval algorithm assumptions, in all three spatial dimensions for a range of storm types and seasons. As one component of this effort, the GPM Ground Validation program recently acquired five 3rd generation 2D Video disdrometers as part of its Disdrometer and Radar Observations of Precipitation Facility (DROP), currently hosted in northern Alabama by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. These next-generation 2DVDs were operated and evaluated in different phases of data collection under the scanning domain of the UAH ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. During this period approximately 7500 minutes of PSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSDs were then used as input to T-matrix code for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. The combined dataset was then analyzed with two basic objectives in mind: 1) the investigation of seasonal variability in the rain PSD parameters as observed by the 2DVDs; 2) the use of combined polarimetric moments and observed gamma distribution parameters in a functional form to retrieve PSD parameters in 4-D using the ARMOR radar for precipitation occurring in different seasons and for different rain system types. Preliminary results suggest that seasonal variations in the DSD parameters do occur, but are most pronounced when comparing tropical PSDs to either winter or summer convective precipitation. For example the previously documented shift to relatively smaller drop diameters in higher number concentrations for equivalent rain rate bins was observed in tropical storm rainbands occurring over Huntsville. On a more inter seasonal basis empirical fits between parameters such as D0 and ZDR do not appear to exhibit robust seasonal biases- i.e., one fit seems to work for all seasons within acceptable standard error (O[10%]) for estimates of D0. In polarimetric retrievals of the vertical variability in PSD (rain layer) for a tropical rainband we find that the Do varies with height when partitioned by specified precipitation categories (e.g., convective or stratiform, heavy and light stratiform etc.) but this variation is of order 10-20% and is smaller than the difference in D0 observed between the basic delineation of convective and stratiform precipitation types. Currently we are expanding our analysis of the vertical structure of the PSD to include several seasonally and/or dynamically-different storm system types (e.g., winter convection and stratiform events; summer mid-latitude convective etc.) sampled by ARMOR. The study will present the results of our combined analyses.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar - 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores "The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures in an operational setting."

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Dual-Polarimetric Radar-Based Tornado Debris Paths Associated with EF-4 and EF-5 Tornadoes over Northern Alabama During the Historic Outbreak of 27 April 2011

An historic tornado and severe weather outbreak devastated much of the southeastern United States between 25 and 28 April 2011. On 27 April 2011, northern Alabama was particularly hard hit by a large number of tornadoes, including several that reached EF-4 and EF-5 on the Enhanced Fujita damage scale. In northern Alabama alone, there were approximately 100 fatalities and hundreds of more people who were injured or lost their homes during the havoc caused by these violent tornadic storms. Two long-track and violent (EF-4 and EF-5) tornadoes occurred within range of the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAHuntsville) Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band dual-polarimetric). A unique capability of dual-polarimetric radar is the near-real time identification of lofted debris associated with ongoing tornadoes on the ground. The focus of this paper is to analyze the dual-polarimetric radar-inferred tornado debris signatures and identify the associated debris paths of the long-track EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes near ARMOR. The relative locations of the debris and damage paths for each tornado will be ascertained by careful comparison of the ARMOR analysis with NASA MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) satellite imagery of the tornado damage scenes and the National Weather Service tornado damage surveys. With the ongoing upgrade of the WSR-88D (Weather Surveillance Radar 1988 Doppler) operational network to dual-polarimetry and a similar process having already taken place or ongoing for many private sector radars, dual-polarimetric radar signatures of tornado debris promise the potential to assist in the situational awareness of government and private sector forecasters and emergency managers during tornadic events. As such, a companion abstract (Schultz et al.) also submitted to this conference explores The use of dual-polarimetric tornadic debris signatures in an operational setting.

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

High Speed Impact Testing of UHMWPE Composite Using Orthogonal Arrays

Abstract Background Ultra high molecular weight polyethylene composites are fiber based composites used in armor applications. While some characterization has been conducted experimentally, this study varies multiple parameters simultaneously to investigate material response under a wide range of conditions. Objective This work focuses on characterizing the response of Dyneema ® HB26 hard laminate composites under high-speed impacts to examine the influence of plate diameter, clamping pressure, and plate spacing on target performance. Additionally, micro Computer Tomography scans are used to nondestructively evaluate the damage evolution in the targets. Methods These scan results are used in concert with more traditional armor performance metrics to evaluate the effect of various parameters using the method of orthogonal array analysis. This technique allows for multiple variables to be investigated in the same test series, saving time and budget while still providing quality results across a range of variables and variable values. Results We conclude that of the parameters investigated, the plate spacing parameter has the largest effect on performance, followed by the plate diameter. Bolt torque was found to not have a significant impact on results, indicating that an edge clamping pressure is not critical to material response. Additionally, by examining the high resolution scans, we can quantify the damage with an effective damage angle and that this angle is a good predictor of performance. Conclusion Finally a damage theory involving the effective bending strength of the plates is discussed as an explanation for all of the results observed in this test series.

Hannah, T. (ORCID:0000000230261362)↗

Thermostructural evolution of boron carbide characterized using in-situ x-ray diffraction

Boron carbide, with a nominal stoichiometry of B 4 C, is a highly desired ceramic candidate for armor applications due to its high hardness derived from the complex crystal structure. However, stress-induced local amorphization can lead to failure and is a known challenge for this material which must be addressed for applications in ballistic environments. Understanding boron carbide's atomic structural behavior and bonding environment is critical in determining effective strategies to mitigate these issues. Here, in this work, the thermo-structural behavior of B 4 C has been studied in detail using a conical nozzle levitator system coupled with in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction. Lattice expansion and the resulting thermal expansion coefficients (CTEs) were determined from 25-2100 °C. Rietveld refinements showed anisotropic atomic displacement for each of the 4 unique sites as a function of temperature. An exceptionally large z-axis displacement for the boron chain center is linked to bond weakness and may be linked to faster expansion of the α 33 relative to α 11 CTEs. Thermally induced lattice changes can inform the use of boron carbide at elevated temperatures as well as help develop strategies for mitigating structural failure for armor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Design, fabrication, and testing of a water-cooled tungsten-foam high-heat flux plasma-facing module

Here, we present a comprehensive study detailing the design, fabrication and testing a new modular “finger” component, featuring a hexagonal tungsten foam armor tile bonded to the top surface of the water-cooled finger unit. The mechanical, thermal, and particle transport properties of the tungsten foam armor were determined for a wide range of porosity and cell size, and then combined in an equivalent solid material with “effective” properties suitable for large-scale simulations. A series of 3-D multiphysics simulations for coupled thermal and mechanical behavior of the “finger” module are used to optimize the design before fabrication. The simulation results show that, for the expected experimental conditions, a safe range of heat flux and foam porosity is possible for both water-cooling and helium-cooling. Based on these multiphysics simulations, an optimum finger cooling module has been fabricated at Ultramet, Inc. A series of experiments were designed to study the thermomechanical performance of the “finger” unit under steady-state and transient thermal loading at surface heat flux up to 16 MW/m 2 in the High Energy Flux Test facility (HEFTY) at UCLA. Testing conditions included low-power, steady-state plasma exposure at 6 MW/m 2 , followed by severe high heat flux cycles at 16 MW/m 2 . Results of these tests are explained through comparisons with multiphysics simulations. To eliminate the effects of thermomechanical damage carried out on a module on its thermo-mechanical response on a subsequent test, three different yet identically designed and fabricated finger modules were tested. The results show that the current design is capable of cooling the walls of fusion devices at surface heat flux up to 6 MW/m 2 without failure, and that the failure heat flux limit is below 16 MW/m 2 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Chelation-directed interface engineering of in-place self-cleaning membranes

Water–energy sustainability will depend upon the rapid development of advanced pressure-driven separation membranes. Although energy-efficient, water-treatment membranes are constrained by ubiquitous fouling, which may be alleviated by engineering self-cleaning membrane interfaces. In this study, a metal-polyphenol network was designed to direct the armorization of catalytic nanofilms (ca. 18 nm) on inert polymeric membranes. The chelation-directed mineralized coating exhibits high polarity, superhydrophilicity, and ultralow adhesion to crude oil, enabling cyclable crude oil-in-water emulsion separation. The in-place flux recovery rate exceeded 99.9%, alleviating the need for traditional ex situ cleaning. The chelation-directed nanoarmored membrane exhibited 48-fold and 6.8-fold figures of merit for in-place self-cleaning regeneration compared to the control membrane and simple hydraulic cleaning, respectively. Precursor interaction mechanisms were identified by density functional theory calculations. Here, chelation-directed armorization offers promise for sustainable applications in catalysis, biomedicine, environmental remediation, and beyond.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Maintainable Fusion Pilot Plant

The US fusion community has coalesced around the goal of building an FPP as described by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). In addition to demonstrating the viability of the technologies necessary to operate such a plant, including demonstration of net energy and electricity production, NASEM found that a “fusion pilot plant will need to demonstrate the ability to efficiently perform remote maintenance and replacement in support of the design of a power plant, taking into account details of the consequences of the fusion environment, such as material activation and tritium retention in components.” Current designs of fusion demonstration reactors do usually foresee a regular exchange of their first wall modules, including the tritium breeding blankets. In the European Power Plant Conceptual Studies, it is assumed that a fusion reactor will need to change its divertor every 2 years and its first wall blanket module every 5 to 6 years to reach acceptable availability. Underlying this capability are remote-handling technologies to keep the outage for the exchange of these components short. There are many uncertainties in the remote-handling schemes, and most schemes are at a preconceptual level at best. In addition, the exchange of these components would either produce an enormous rad-waste stream or would require an enormous refurbishment activity with huge cost-prohibitive hot-cells. Past Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF) preconceptual studies have led to hot cell dimensions of an unbelievable size, likely costing tens of billions of dollars. Already at The Way (previously International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, ITER), hot-cells have become cost-prohibitive, demanding redesigns of the ITER first wall to reduce the toxic rad-waste/inventory. In this in-situ PFC repair project, a concept for a long-life, maintainable first wall module concept is developed and tested. This first wall concept relies on innovative remote handling to repair the first wall modules in-situ, avoiding costly refurbishments outside of the tokamak vessel. This approach was highlighted in the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) report on Transformative Enabling Capabilities for Efficient Advance Toward Fusion Energy. In general, the damage of the first wall armor is due to particle and radiation exposures. Load conditions vary from one fusion reactor design to another. In tokamaks, first wall Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) are exposed to far-Scrape-Off-Layer plasma fluxes, electromagnetic radiation, energetic CX neutrals, and potentially runaway electron beams. Protecting the first wall to the worst-case load conditions would require the design of a very thick first wall armor. Transient heat and particle fluxes due to disruptions or edge localized modes can lead to excessive heat loads resulting potentially in melting PFCs down to the cooling channel. Catastrophic events like these need to be avoided by appropriate disruption mitigation systems. However, failure of these systems will still put a first wall at an unacceptable risk. Hence, a first wall design needs to accommodate the occasional transient heat loads by introducing sacrificial limiters, which will absorb these transients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Direct effects of lightning on an aircraft during intentional penetrations of thunderstorms

An armored T-28 aircraft was struck by lightning on two different days while participating in the 1979 severe environmental storm and mesoscale experiment in Oklahoma. The T-28, which is specially armored and instrumented, was making intentional penetrations of thunderstorms and was struck twice on 30 May and once on 5 June. Various degrees of damage, mainly in the form of large burn spots and holes, resulted to the aircraft.

Musil, D. J.↗

Ion erosion on the Galilean satellites of Jupiter

Several different models of ion-induced erosion of both the rocky and icy Galilean satellites are considered. The conclusion is that erasure of surface relief via this mechanism is likely to occur at a rate not exceeding about 100 m per billion years, and therefore is not of global topographic significance. Another effect of ion bombardment is the possible growth of a thin mineral armor on the surfaces of the icy satellites. A volume concentration of 0.1% of 1 micron sized mineral grains can lead to 50% armoring of the surface on time scales ranging from thousands to millions of years.

Haff, P. K.↗

Study of reactor Brayton power systems for nuclear electric spacecraft

The feasibility of using Brayton power systems for nuclear electric spacecraft was investigated. The primary performance parameters of systems mass and radiator area were determined for systems from 100 to 1000 kW sub e. Mathematical models of all system components were used to determine masses and volumes. Two completely independent systems provide propulsion power so that no single-point failure can jeopardize a mission. The waste heat radiators utilize armored heat pipes to limit meteorite puncture. The armor thickness was statistically determined to achieve the required probability of survival. A 400 kW sub e reference system received primary attention as required by the contract. The components of this system were defined and a conceptual layout was developed with encouraging results. An arrangement with redundant Brayton power systems having a 1500 K (2240 F) turbine inlet temperature was shown to be compatible with the dimensions of the space shuttle orbiter payload bay.

Source record↗

The design of a multimegawatt heat pipe radiator for an inertial fusion rocket powered manned Mars mission

A system of heat pipe radiators has been designed to provide waste heat rejection for an inertial fusion powered spacecraft capable of manned missions to other planets. The radiators are arrays of unfinned, arterial heat pipes operating at 1500 and 900 K. Liquid metal coolant carries up to 8000 MW of waste heat through feed pipes from on-board components (laser drivers and coil shield). The radiators do not rely on armor for protection from micrometeoroid penetration. An armored radiator design for this application with a 99 percent survivability would have a specific mass of 0.06 to 0.11 kg/kW at 1500 K. Instead, a segmentation of heat pipes is used, and bumpers are utilized to protect the feed pipes. This design reduces the specific mass to 0.015 to 0.04 kg/kW for the coil shield radiator (1500 K) and 0.06 to 0.12 kg/kW for the laser driver radiator (900 K).

Murray, K. A.↗

Spacecraft ceramic protective shield

A low areal density protective shield apparatus, and method for making same, for protecting spacecraft structures from impact with hypervelocity objects, including a bumper member comprising a bumper ceramic layer, a bumper shock attenuator layer, and a bumper confining layer. The bumper ceramic layer can be SiC or B.sub.4 C; the bumper shock attenuator layer can be zirconia felt; and the bumper confining layer can be aluminum. A base armor member can be spaced from the bumper member and a ceramic fiber-based curtain can be positioned between the bumper and base armor members.

Larriva, Rene F.↗

Developing Lightning Prediction Tools for the CCAFS Dual-Polarimetric Radar

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama Huntsville are collaborating with the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) to develop improved lightning prediction capabilities for the new C-band dual-polarimetric weather radar being acquired for use by 45WS and launch weather forecasters at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). In particular, these algorithms will focus on lightning onset, cessation and combined lightning-radar applications for convective winds assessment. Research using radar reflectivity (Z) data for prediction of lightning onset has been extensively discussed in the literature and subsequently applied by launch weather forecasters as it pertains to lightning nowcasting. Currently the forecasters apply a relatively straight forward but effective temperature-Z threshold algorithm for assessing the likelihood of lightning onset in a given storm. In addition, a layered VIL above the freezing level product is used as automated guidance for the onset of lightning. Only limited research and field work has been conducted on lightning cessation using Z and vertically-integrated Z for determining cessation. Though not used operationally vertically-integrated Z (basis for VIL) has recently shown promise as a tool for use in nowcasting lightning cessation. The work discussed herein leverages and expands upon these and similar reflectivity-threshold approaches via the application/addition of over two decades of polarimetric radar research focused on distinct multi-parameter radar signatures of ice/mixed-phase initiation and ice-crystal orientation in highly electrified convective clouds. Specifically, our approach is based on numerous previous studies that have observed repeatable patterns in the behavior of the vertical hydrometeor column as it relates to the temporal evolution of differential reflectivity and depolarization (manifested in either LDR or p(sub hv)), development of in-situ mixed and ice phase microphysics, electric fields, and ensuing lightning in the sub-tropical/tropical convection typical of the southeastern U.S., Maritime Continent, and southwestern Amazon. The polarimetric signatures detected in this setting provide a basis for automated 3-D detection of hydrometeor types in fuzzy logic hydrometeor identification algorithms (HID). Our working hypothesis is that improvement in lightning onset warning lead time and specificity for a given storm, relative to application of a Z-threshold algorithm, should arise as a consequence of the ability of dual-polarimetric radar to unambiguously detect and identify (through HID algorithms) the updraft elevation of rain-water cores above the freezing level and subsequent onset of drop freezing, riming, and robust mixed phase processes leading to significant charge separation and lightning. This type of algorithm, though dependent on the quality of the polarimetric data should be less susceptible to variable Z-calibration that can impact a given Z-threshold approach. To facilitate development of the algorithm while the 45WS dual-pol radar is in its current test stages and to evaluate the impact of polarimetric data quality (e.g., modified scan parameters and sampling) on the ensuing algorithms, we are using the ARMOR C-band dual-pol radar in Huntsville combined with N. Alabama LMA data and ARMOR HID algorithms [NCAR algorithm modified for application at C-band] in a testbed fashion. For lightning cessation we are revisiting the application of differential propagation phase variables for the monitoring of ice crystal alignment driven by in-cloud electric fields combined with metrics of ice water path (i.e., vertically integrated reflectivity). Importantly it should be noted that this approach is still very much a research topic and as such, we will explore operational applications that involve radar frequencies other than C-Band by using the UAH MAX X-band dual-pol radar in slow staring modes.

Petersen, W. A.↗