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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Jaynesian Analysis of Environmental Chemistry: Systems Model Component Integration via the Arctic Aquatic Carbon Cycle

Focal Areas: All three are touched upon from the OBER call. We will consider formal logical inference and entropic information analysis for sparse but intensive chemical measurements, as optimal drivers for managing process complexity. As a centerpiece for the discussion we take soil-to-sea organic structural evolution within the Arctic hydro-geochemosphere, assessing detrital negentropy then algorithmic greed to generate ranked, reduced mechanisms for system integration.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summertime measurements of selected nonmethane hydrocarbons in the Arctic and Subarctic during the 1988 Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A)

The concentration distributions of several nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHIC) in the Arctic and Subarctic regions of Alaska are discussed using data obtained during July and August of 1988 as part of the Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE 3A). Plume enhancement of some or all of the measured NMHIC were observed on more than half of the 33 missions flown during the project. The usual summer vertical profile of reactive hydrocarbons at these high latitudes has elevated concentrations at high altitudes, with mixing ratio variations largely controlled by hydroxyl radical reactions. Wildfires were established as a significant source of various NMHIC. Biomass burning emission ratios relative to ethane were established for ethyne (0.38 +/- 0.04) and propane (0.08 +/- 0.03). Activities associated with oil drilling are a probable source of enhanced levels of alkanes observed as much as 300 km northeast of Prudhoe Bay.

Blake, Donald R.↗

Ice Processes and Growth History on Arctic and Sub-Arctic Lakes Using ERS-1 SAR Data

A survey of ice growth and decay processes on a selection of shallow and deep sub-Arctic and Arctic lakes was conducted using radiometrically calibrated ERS-1 SAR images. Time series of radar backscatter data were compiled for selected sites on the lakes during the period ot ice cover (September to June) for the years 1991-1992 and 1992-1993. A variety of lake-ice processes could be observed, and significant changes in backscatter occurred from the time of initial ice formation in autumn until the onset of the spring thaw. Backscatter also varied according to the location and depth of the lakes. The spatial and temporal changes in backscatter were most constant and predictable at the shallow lakes on the North Slope of Alaska. As a consequence, they represent the most promising sites for long-term monitoring and the detection of changes related to global warming and its effects on the polar regions.

Morris, K.↗

Radar studies of arctic ice and development of a real-time Arctic ice type identification system

Studies were conducted to develop a real-time Arctic ice type identification system. Data obtained by NASA Mission 126, conducted at Pt. Barrow, Alaska (Site 93) in April 1970 was analyzed in detail to more clearly define the major mechanisms at work affecting the radar energy illuminating a terrain cell of sea ice. General techniques for reduction of the scatterometer data to a form suitable for application of ice type decision criteria were investigated, and the electronic circuit requirements for implementation of these techniques were determined. Also, consideration of circuit requirements are extended to include the electronics necessary for analog programming of ice type decision algorithms. After completing the basic circuit designs a laboratory model was constructed and a preliminary evaluation performed. Several system modifications for improved performance are suggested. (Modified author abstract)

Rouse, J. W., Jr.↗

Heavy Oil Polymer EOR in the Challenging Alaskan Arctic - It Works!

Under co-sponsorship of the US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska LLC the first ever polymer field pilot commenced on 8/28/2018 in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field on Alaska North Slope (ANS). The primary objective of the pilot is to prove the efficacy of polymer Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. More than two and half years after startup, the polymer injection, supporting laboratory experiments and simulation studies steadily continue. The pilot started injecting hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), at a concentration of 1,750 ppm to achieve a target viscosity of 45 cP, into the two horizontal injectors in the flood pattern. Production is monitored in the two horizontal producers. Based on laboratory measurements of polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions, the team decided to reduce polymer concentration to 1,200 ppm since July 2020 in an effort to control injection pressure and optimize polymer utilization. Quality control (QC) on the field ensures uniform polymer solution properties. Representative rock and fluid systems and test conditions are utilized in the corefloods on polymer retention, effect of injection water salinity, polymer loading, and their combinations on oil recovery. A history matched reservoir simulation model for forecasting oil recovery was developed on the basis of all the available field data. Field concerns related to the post-polymer breakthrough impact on flow assurance is addressed via specialized laboratory tests. Notwithstanding early operational disruptions and hydration issues, continuous polymer injection in both injectors has been achieved. To date, 950,000 lbs of polymer or 2 million barrels of polymer solution, equating to 13% of total pore volume (PV), has been placed in the flood pattern, serving as an effective indicator of adequate polymer injectivity. So far, the success of polymer EOR is evident from drastically reduced water cut in the producers, an estimated incremental 1,000 bopd over waterflood, and a favorable polymer utilization of 1.7 lbs/barrel of incremental oil. Polymer breakthrough was observed 26 months after the start of polymer injection. Main observations from corefloods are unusually high polymer retention values in some cases and a positive response to low salinity water. Although the heterogeneity in the flood pattern and exceptionally low water cut pose some challenges, persistent novel and justifiable simulation approaches have resulted in a robust history matched model. Experimental results on produced fluids treatment provide operational guidance for improved oil-water separation and mitigation of heater tube fouling. The ongoing success of the pilot is a key indicator of bringing the team ever closer to meeting the project’s primary objective. The encouraging results of the pilot is one of the drivers that has provided the impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field, which would increase oil recovery and extend the economic life of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The scientific knowledge, including the many lessons learned from this pilot also has referential value for other potential heavy oil EOR projects throughout the world. The collected data, operational lessons learned, and the overall success of the pilot are summarized in the paper.

None, None↗

Large-scale variability of ozone and aerosols in the summertime Arctic and sub-Arctic troposphere

The results of mesoscale and large-scale studies of the distribution of aerosols and O3 using primarily an airborne DIAL system are reported. The tropospheric composition at high latitudes is found to be strongly influenced by stratospheric intrusions. Regions of low-aerosol scattering and enhanced O3 mixing ratios are correlated with descending air from the lower stratosphere. Over 37 percent of the troposphere along the flight track at latitudes higher than 57 deg N had significantly enhanced O3 levels due to stratospheric intrusions, and in the 4-6 km latitude range the tropospheric extent of the enhanced O3 exceeded 56 percent. Ozone mixing ratios of 80 ppbv at 6 km are common, with vertical O3 gradients of over 11 ppbv/km observed across the base of strong intrusions. In the mixed layer over the tundra, O3 was in the 25-35 ppbv range with a gradient of 5.5 ppbv/km, while in the continental polar air masses, the average gradient in the lower troposphere is 7.4 ppbv/km, indicating more downward transport of O3 at higher latitudes.

Browell, E. V.↗