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Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Magnetograms

We report further results from our ongoing assessment of magnetogram-based measures of active-region nonpotentiality (magnetic shear and twist) and size as predictors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). From a set of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary 2004, ApJ, submitted), we have found that (1) each of our 5 measures of active-region nonpotentiality has a 75-80% success rate in predicting whether an active region will produce a CME within 2 days after the magnetogram, (2) the correlation of each of these measures with CME production in this window is statistically significant (confidence level greater than 95%), (3) our measure of active-region size has a 65% success rate in predicting CMEs in this window, but (4) the correlation between active-region size and CME productivity is not statistically significant (confidence level approximately 80%). As part of the work under our pending 2003 LWS TR&T proposal, we will double our sample to approximately 70 active regions in order to demonstrate a statistically significant correlation between active-region size and CME productivity, and to determine whether this correlation is a byproduct of any Sun-produced correlation between magnetic twist and size of active regions. Since the 2002 LWS Science Workshop, we have found a measure of active-region nonpotentiality (the length of strong-gradient neutral line) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram, and we have generalized this measure and the corresponding measure from a vector magnetogram (the length of strong-shear neutral line) so that they can be applied to multiple-bipole complex active regions as well as to bipolar active regions. Preliminary results will be presented from application of these two generalized measures to our sample of bipolar active regions and to a new sample of multiple-bipole active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Helioseismic Observations of the Structure and Dynamics of a Rotating Sunspot Beneath the Solar Surface

Time-distance helioseismology is applied to study the subphotospheric structures and dynamics of an unusually fast-rotating sunspot observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager on bead SOH0 in 2000 August. The subsurface sound speed structures and velocity fields are obtained for the sunspot region at different depths from 0 to 12 Mm. By comparing the subsurface sound speed variations with the surface magnetic field, we find evidence for structural twists beneath the visible surface of this active region, which may indicate that magnetic twists often seen at the photosphere also exist beneath the photosphere. We also report on the observation of subsurface horizontal vortical flows that extend to a depth of 5 Mm around this rotating sunspot and present evidence that opposite vortical flows may exist below 9 Mm. It is suggested that the vortical flows around this active region may build up a significant amount of magnetic helicity and energy to power solar eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the error propagation, and in addition the sunspot umbra is masked to test the reliability of our inversion results. On the basis of the three-dimensional velocity fields obtained from the time-distance helioseismology inversions, we estimate the subsurface kinetic helicity at different depths for the first time and conclude that it is comparable to the current helicity estimated from vector magnetograms.

Zhao, Junwei↗

Electrodynamics of Thin Sheets of Twisted Material

We construct a minimal theory describing the optical activity of a thin sheet of a twisted material, the simplest example of which is twisted bilayer graphene. We introduce the notion of "twisted electrical conductivity", which parametrizes the parity-odd response of a thin film to a perpendicularly falling electromagnetic waves with wavelength larger than the thickness of the sheet. Here, we show that the low-frequency Faraday rotation angle has different behaviors in different phases. For an insulator, the Faraday angle behaves as ω 2 at low frequencies, with the coefficient being determined by the linear relationship between a component of the electric quadrupole moment and the external electric field. For superconductors, the Faraday rotation angle is constant when the frequency of the incoming EM waves is below the superconducting gap and is determined by the coefficient of the Lifshitz invariant in the Ginzburg-Landau functional describing the superconducting state. In the metallic state, we show that the twisted conductivity is proportional to the "magnetic helicity" (scalar product of the velocity and the magnetic moment) of the quasiparticle, averaged around the Fermi surface. The theory is general and is applicable to strongly correlated phases.

Son, Dam Thanh↗

Magnetic Causes of Solar Coronal Mass Ejections: Dominance of the Free Magnetic Energy Over the Magnetic Twist Alone

We examine the magnetic causes of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) by examining, along with the correlations of active-region magnetic measures with each other, the correlations of these measures with active-region CME productivity observed in time windows of a few days, either centered on or extending forward from the day of the magnetic measurement. The measures are from 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions observed within -30" of disk center by the Marshal Space Flight Center (MSFC) vector magnetograph. From each magnetogram, we extract six whole-active-region measures twice, once from the original plane-of-the-sky magnetogram and again a h r deprojection of the magnetogram to disk center. Three of the measures are alternative measures of the total nonpotentiality of the active region, two are alternative measures of the overall twist in the active-region's magnetic field, and one is a measure of the magnetic size of the active region (the active region's magnetic flux content). From the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (1) magnetic twist and magnetic size are separate but comparably strong causes of active-region CME Productivity, and (2) the total free magnetic energy in an active region's magnetic field is a stronger determinant of the active region's CME productivity than is the field's overall twist (or helicity) alone. From comparison of results from the non-deprojected magnetograms with corresponding results from the deprojected magnetograms, we find evidence that (for prediction of active-region CME productivity and for further studies of active-region magnetic size as a cause of CMEs), for active regions within approx.30deg of disk center, active-region total nonpotentiality and flux content can be adequately measured from line-of-sight magnetograms, such as from SOH0 MDI.

Falconer, D. A.↗

The Invariant Twist of Magnetic Fields in the Relativistic Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei

The origin of cosmic magnetic (B) fields remains an open question. It is generally believed that very weak primordial B fields are amplified by dynamo processes, but it appears unlikely that the amplification proceeds fast enough to account for the fields presently observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters. In an alternative scenario, cosmic B fields are generated near the inner edges of accretion disks in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) by azimuthal electric currents due to the difference between the plasma electron and ion velocities that arises when the electrons are retarded by interactions with photons. While dynamo processes show no preference for the polarity of the (presumably random) seed field that they amplify, this alternative mechanism uniquely relates the polarity of the poloidal B field to the angular velocity of the accretion disk, resulting in a unique direction for the toroidal B field induced by disk rotation. Observations of the toroidal fields of 29 AGN jets revealed by parsec-scale Faraday rotation measurements show a clear asymmetry that is consistent with this model, with the probability that this asymmetry came about by chance being less than 1 %. This lends support to the hypothesis that the Universe is seeded by B fields that are generated in AGN via this mechanism

Contopoulos, Ioannis↗

Twisted A-D-A Type Acceptors with Thermally-Activated Delayed Crystallization Behavior for Efficient Nonfullerene Organic Solar Cells

We report that molecular aggregation and crystallization during film coating play a crucial role in the realization of high-performing organic photovoltaics. Strong intermolecular interactions and high solid-state crystallinity are beneficial for charge transport. However, fast crystallization during thin-film drying often limits the formation of the finely phase-separated morphology required for efficient charge generation. Herein, the authors show that twisted acceptor-donor-acceptor (A-D-A) type compounds, containing an indacenodithiophene (IDT) electron-rich core and two naphthalenediimide (NDI) electron-poor units, leads to formation of mostly amorphous phases in the as-cast film, which can be readily converted into more crystalline domains by means of thermal annealing. This design strategy solves the aforementioned conundrum, leading to an optimal morphology in terms of reduced donor/acceptor domain-separation sizes (ca. 13 nm) and increased packing order. Solar cells based on these acceptors with a PBDB-T polymer donor show a power conversion efficiency over 10% and stable morphology, which results from the combined properties of desirable excited-state dynamics, high charge mobility, and optimal aggregation/crystallization characteristics. These results demonstrate that the twisted A-D-A motif featuring thermally-induced crystallization behavior is indeed a promising alternative design approach toward more morphologically robust materials for efficient organic photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Nonpotential features observed in the magnetic field of an active region

A unique coordinated data set consisting of vector magnetograms, H-alpha photographs, and high-resolution ultraviolet images of a solar active region is used, together with mathematical models, to calculate potential and force-free magnetic field lines and to examine the nonpotential nature of the active region structure. It is found that the overall bipolar magnetic field of the active region had a net twist corresponding to net current of order 3 x 10 to the 12th A and average density of order 4 x 10 to the -4th A/sq m flowing antiparallel to the field. There were three regions of enhanced nonpotentiality in the interior of the active region; in one the field had a marked nonpotential twist or shear with height above the photosphere. The measured total nonpotential magnetic energy stored in the entire active region was of order 10 to the 32nd ergs, about 3 sigma above the noise level.

Gary, G. A.↗

Probing the Magnetic Causes of CMEs: Free Magnetic Energy More Important Than Either Size Or Twist

To probe the magnetic causes of CMEs, we have examined three types of magnetic measures: size, twist and total nonpotentiality (or total free magnetic energy) of an active region. Total nonpotentiality is roughly the product of size times twist. For predominately bipolar active regions, we have found that total nonpotentiality measures have the strongest correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 75% prediction success rate), while size and twist measures each have a weaker correlation with future CME productivity (approx. 65% prediction success rate) (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, ApJ, 644, 2006). For multipolar active regions, we find that the CME-prediction success rates for total nonpotentiality and size are about the same as for bipolar active regions. We also find that the size measure correlation with CME productivity is nearly all due to the contribution of size to total nonpotentiality. We have a total nonpotentiality measure that can be obtained from a line-of-sight magnetogram of the active region and that is as strongly correlated with CME productivity as are any of our total-nonpotentiality measures from deprojected vector magnetograms. We plan to further expand our sample by using MDI magnetograms of each active region in our sample to determine its total nonpotentiality and size on each day that the active region was within 30 deg. of disk center. The resulting increase in sample size will improve our statistics and allow us to investigate whether the nonpotentiality threshold for CME production is nearly the same or significantly different for multipolar regions than for bipolar regions. In addition, we will investigate the time rates of change of size and total nonpotentiality as additional causes of CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA Celebrates the World Year of Physics

One of the goals of NASA's Exploration Systems Education and Outreach team is to provide educators and students authentic, relevant opportunities and activities. In celebration of the World Year of Physics 2005, there will be several NASA-sponsored events and classroom activities geared to the teaching and learning of physics. Proposed events and activities include a contest for high school classes to design a reduced gravity experiment or demonstration for flight on an aircraft executing a parabolic flight path, amusement park activities with a NASA twist, and a symposium bringing together prominent leaders in the diverse areas of physics research.

Szofran, Frank↗

Development of Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flap for Performance Adaptive Aeroelastic Wing

This paper summarizes the recent development of an adaptive aeroelastic wing shaping control technology called variable camber continuous trailing edge flap (VCCTEF). As wing flexibility increases, aeroelastic interactions with aerodynamic forces and moments become an increasingly important consideration in aircraft design and aerodynamic performance. Furthermore, aeroelastic interactions with flight dynamics can result in issues with vehicle stability and control. The initial VCCTEF concept was developed in 2010 by NASA under a NASA Innovation Fund study entitled "Elastically Shaped Future Air Vehicle Concept," which showed that highly flexible wing aerodynamic surfaces can be elastically shaped in-flight by active control of wing twist and bending deflection in order to optimize the spanwise lift distribution for drag reduction. A collaboration between NASA and Boeing Research & Technology was subsequently funded by NASA from 2012 to 2014 to further develop the VCCTEF concept. This paper summarizes some of the key research areas conducted by NASA during the collaboration with Boeing Research and Technology. These research areas include VCCTEF design concepts, aerodynamic analysis of VCCTEF camber shapes, aerodynamic optimization of lift distribution for drag minimization, wind tunnel test results for cruise and high-lift configurations, flutter analysis and suppression control of flexible wing aircraft, and multi-objective flight control for adaptive aeroelastic wing shaping control.

Aircraft↗

Average motion, structure and orientation of the distant magnetotail determined from remote sensing of the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer with E greater than 35 keV ions

We study gradients of the energetic ion intesity observed at the edge of the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL) by the energetic ion anisotropy spectrometer (EPAS) on International Sun Earth Explorer 3 (ISEE 3). In particular, we have determined the velocity of the boundary relative to the spacecraft in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis and the angle which the boundary normal makes to the spacecraft spin axis for 1160 PSBL encounters at X(sub GSM) greater than -240 R(sub E). By asuming that, on average, the edge of the PSBL is parallel to the cross-tail current sheet, we are then able to determine a number of properties of the structure, orientation and motion of the deep geomagnetic tail. We conclude the following: (1) Most crossings of the edge of the PSBL are caused by transverse motuion of the entire tail induced by solar wind direction variations, although some are caused by reconfiguration of the tail due to geomagnetic activity. (2) The typical velocity of the PSBL (and hence of the tail) in the direction perpendicular to the tail axis is 50-85 km/s. (3) The average twist of the tail is near zero, with the edge of the PSBL (and by inference the cross-tail current sheet) lying parallel to the ecliptic plane (however, large twists are found in individual events and the distribution of twists is broad, with one standard deviation of approximately 50 deg. (4) The width of the distribution decreases with downtail distance. (5) The variation of the distributions with cross-tail position reveals that this decreas in width is most likely due to the edge of the PSBL being concave, or significantly flared at the tail flanks, in the near-Earth region. (6) During days on which the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) has 'away' sector structure, the north lobe of the trail is twisted on average towards dawn by 7.0 +/-2.4 deg. (7) During days on which the IMF has 'toward' sector structure, the north lobe is tilted towards duskby 3.8 +/- 2.3. (8) A subset of events for which IMP 8 solar wind data are available show that, for southward IMF BH(sub z) the tail has a mean twist of -12.3 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 5.5 +/- 3.8 deg for IMF B(sub Y) less than 0 (positive twist angles correspond to a tilt of the northern lobe towards dusk). (9) For northward IMF B(sub z) the tail has a twist of -23.9 +/- 5.0 deg for IMF B(sub Y) greater than 0 and 13.4 +/- 6.0 deg for IMF B(sub y) less than 0. Hence the tail appears more twisted on average for the IMF B(sub Z) northward case. (10) The distribution of tail twist is wider for lower levels of geomagnetic activity, indicating that the tail is able to twist more at lower levels of activity. (11) The data set reveals no evident effect of the earth's dipole wobble; tail orientation appears to be controlled by the solar wind and IMF, such that the GSE coordinate system may be appropriate for the study of field and plasma structures in the distant tail region.

Owen, C. J.↗

Correlation of the Coronal Mass Ejection Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

Conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images show qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions where the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. We present measurements from active region vector magnetograms that start to quantify the dependence of an active region's CME productivity on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we measured the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three separate measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line: I(sub N), the net electric current connecting one polarity to the other; and alpha = (mu)I(sub N)/phi), a flux normalized measure of the field twist). From these measurements and the observed CME productivity of the active regions, we find that: (1) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are statistically correlated with the active region flux content and with each other; (2) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are significantly correlated with CME productivity. The flux content correlates with CME productivity, but at a lower statistically significant confidence level (less than 95%); (3) The net current is less closely correlated with CME productivity than alpha and the correlation of CME productivity with flux content is even weaker. If these differences in correlation strength, and a significant correlation of alpha with flux content, persist to larger active regions, this would imply that the size of active regions does not affect CME productivity except through global nonpotentiality; and (4) For each of the four global magnetic quantities, the correlation with CME productivity is stronger for a two-day time window for the CME production than for windows half as wide or twice as wide. This plausibly is a result of the most counterproductive active regions producing less than one CME per day, and from the active region's evolution often significantly changing the global nonpotentiality over the course of several days. These results establish that measures of active region global nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms (such as L(sub SS), I(sub N), and alpha) should be useful for prediction a active region CMEs.

Falconer, D. A.↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong-shear length L(sub SS), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 G) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 deg), and (2) that L(sub SS) is well correlated with the CME productivity of the active regions during the +/- 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub SS) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong-gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G) and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than or approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active-region CME productivity as is L(sub SS)(correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour-cadence full-disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active-region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms: Quantitative Measures as Predictors

We derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

Design of Twisted Two-Dimensional Heterostructures and Performance Regulation Descriptor for Electrocatalytic Ammonia Production from Nitric Oxide

The electrocatalytic reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to ammonia (NH 3 ) represents an attractive alternative for valorizing waste NO streams (NORR). However, discovering efficient catalysts for NO-to-NH 3 conversion remains challenging. We have designed metal-intercalated twisted graphene-BN heterostructures, in which metal atoms act as electron-transfer bridges. The twisted configuration facilitates cross-interface charge transfer, redistributing electrons from the graphene–metal interface to the metal–BN interface and BN surface. This electronic modulation enables boron atom adjacent to the metal center in BN to serve as active sites, promoting strong chemisorption and enhanced activation of NO. After high-throughput screening of the stability and NO capture ability of various transition metal-intercalated twisted heterostructures, we have investigated systematically the NORR pathways across 30 candidates. The results show that the rBN-Ti-Gθ and rBN-V-Gθ heterostructures exhibit exceptional NO-to-NH 3 catalytic performance under optimized twisting conditions. Additionally, using sure independence screening and sparsifying operator (SISSO) for model training, we propose a descriptor and establish a relationship between the twist angle and catalytic activity. This study bridges the gap in applying twisted heterostructures to NORR electrocatalysis and provides new insights and strategies for designing high-performance NORR catalysts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗