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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3

Non-uniform active learning for Gaussian process models with applications to trajectory informed aerodynamic databases

The ability to non-uniformly weight the input space is desirable for many applications, and has been explored for space-filling approaches. Increased interests in linking models, such as in a digital twinning framework, increases the need for sampling emulators where they are most likely to be evaluated. In particular, here we apply non-uniform sampling methods for the construction of aerodynamic databases. This paper combines non-uniform weighting with active learning for Gaussian Processes (GPs) to develop a closed-form solution to a non-uniform active learning criterion. We accomplish this by utilizing a kernel density estimator as the weight function. We demonstrate the need and efficacy of this approach with an atmospheric entry example that accounts for both model uncertainty as well as the practical state space of the vehicle, as determined by forward modeling within the active learning loop.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Techno-Economic Analysis of a Concentrating Solar Power Plant Using Redox-Active Metal Oxides as Heat Transfer Fluid and Storage Media

We present results for a one-dimensional quasi-steady-state thermodynamic model developed for a 111.7 MW e concentrating solar power (CSP) system using a redox-active metal oxide as the heat storage media and heat transfer agent integrated with a combined cycle air Brayton power block. In the energy charging and discharging processes, the metal oxide CaAl 0.2 Mn 0.8 O 2.9-δ (CAM28) undergoes a reversible, high temperature redox cycle including an endothermic oxygen-releasing reaction and exothermic oxygen-incorporation reaction. Concentrated solar radiation heats the redox-active oxide particles under partial vacuum to drive the reduction extent deeper for increased energy density at a fixed temperature, thereby increasing storage capacity while limiting the required on sun temperature. Direct counter-current contact of the reduced particles with compressed air from the Brayton compressor releases stored chemical and sensible energy, heating the air to 1,200°C at the turbine inlet while cooling and reoxidizing the particles. The cool oxidized particles recirculate through the solar receiver subsystem for another cycle of heating and reduction (oxygen release). We applied the techno-economic model to 1) size components, 2) examine intraday operation with varying solar insolation, 3) estimate annual performance characteristics over a simulated year, 4) estimate the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and 5) perform sensitivity analyses to evaluate factors that affect performance and cost. Simulations use hourly solar radiation data from Barstow, California to assess the performance of a 111.7 MW e system with solar multiples (SMs) varying from 1.2 to 2.4 and storage capacities of 6–14 h. The baseline system with 6 h storage and SM of 1.8 has a capacity factor of 54.2%, an increase from 32.3% capacity factor with no storage, and an average annual energy efficiency of 20.6%. Calculations show a system with an output of 710 GWh e net electricity per year, 12 h storage, and SM of 2.4 to have an installed cost of $329 million, and an LCOE of 5.98 ¢/kWh e . This value meets the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot 2020 target of 6.0 ¢/kWh e ( U. S Department of Energy, 2012 ), but falls just shy of the 5.0 ¢/kWh e 2030 CSP target for dispatchable electricity ( U. S Department of Energy, 2017 ). The cost and performance results are minimally sensitive to most design parameters. However, a one-point change in the weighted annual cost of capital from 8 to 7% (better understood as a 12.5% change) translates directly to an 11% decrease (0.66 ¢/kWhe) in the LCOE.

Gorman, Brandon T.↗

Bringing Low- and Moderate-Income Solar Financing Models to Scale (Final Technical Report (FTR))

In this final report, the Clean Energy States Alliance(CESA) and its project partners describe their work to accelerate the development of solar projects for three distinct subsets of the low- to moderate-income(LMI) solar market: single-family homes, manufactured homes, and community institutions, including multifamily affordable housing. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. By advancing promising LMI solar financing innovations for different housing types and spreading them to new locations, the Scaling Up Solar for Under-Resourced Communities project has built momentum to scale up LMI solar. Although the report describes some research pertaining to solar adoption in LMI communities, this project was original in that it focused on two specific models to tackle single-family homes and community institutions. Until this project, very little research dedicated to solar for manufactured homes existed. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. For the single-family homes sector, the project encouraged states to adapt a program model based on a successful Connecticut initiative that has brought solar to thousands of LMI homeowners. For manufactured homes, the project analyzed the potential for using solar for that housing sector and worked with states, utilities, and other stakeholders to launch pilot projects or programs. For community institutions, the project team worked with foundations, lenders, and community service organizations to inventory, analyze, and communicate models for philanthropic investment that accelerate the deployment of solar and solar+storage in multifamily affordable housing, health centers, and other LMI-serving community institutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Gating interactions steer loop conformational changes in the active site of the L1 metallo-β-lactamase

β-Lactam antibiotics are the most important and widely used antibacterial agents across the world. However, the widespread dissemination of β-lactamases among pathogenic bacteria limits the efficacy of β-lactam antibiotics. This has created a major public health crisis. The use of β-lactamase inhibitors has proven useful in restoring the activity of β-lactam antibiotics, yet, effective clinically approved inhibitors against class B metallo-β-lactamases are not available. L1, a class B3 enzyme expressed by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia , is a significant contributor to the β-lactam resistance displayed by this opportunistic pathogen. Structurally, L1 is a tetramer with two elongated loops, α3-β7 and β12-α5, present around the active site of each monomer. Residues in these two loops influence substrate/inhibitor binding. To study how the conformational changes of the elongated loops affect the active site in each monomer, enhanced sampling molecular dynamics simulations were performed, Markov State Models were built, and convolutional variational autoencoder-based deep learning was applied. The key identified residues (D150a, H151, P225, Y227, and R236) were mutated and the activity of the generated L1 variants was evaluated in cell-based experiments. The results demonstrate that there are extremely significant gating interactions between α3-β7 and β12-α5 loops. Taken together, the gating interactions with the conformational changes of the key residues play an important role in the structural remodeling of the active site. These observations offer insights into the potential for novel drug development exploiting these gating interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019: An international collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems

The DECOVALEX Project is an international research collaboration for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. DECOVALEX stands for “DEvelopment of COupled Models and VALidation against EXperiments”. The creation of this international initiative, now running for almost 30 years, was motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and also for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX emphasizes joint analysis and comparative modeling of state-of-the-art field and laboratory experiments, across a range of host rock options and repository designs. Participating research teams are from radioactive waste management organizations, national research institutes, regulatory agencies, universities, and consulting groups, providing a wide range of perspectives and solutions to these complex problems. The most recent phase of the DECOVALEX Project, here referred to as DECOVALEX-2019, started in 2016 and ended in 2019. Modeling teams from 13 international partner organizations participated in the comparative evaluation of seven modeling tasks involving complex field and/or laboratory experiments. Furthermore, this Virtual Special Issue on DECOVALEX-2019 provides an in-depth overview of these collaborative research efforts and how these have advanced the state-of-the-art of understanding and modeling coupled THMC processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Perspective on Multiscale Modeling of Explicit Solvation-Enabled Simulations of Catalysis at Liquid–Solid Interfaces

Catalysis at liquid-solid interfaces is profoundly influenced by the interfacial solvent structure, which affects catalytic activity, selectivity, and reaction pathways. This perspective discusses state-of-the-art multiscale modeling methods that integrate quantum mechanics and molecular mechanics approaches to apply explicit solvent molecules to capture these interfacial phenomena. Specifically, the construction of multiscale models, the importance of capturing the interfacial solvent structure, and the computational strategies used to achieve this are explored, and the challenges in balancing chemical accuracy with computational expense are highlighted. Additionally, this perspective addresses the limitations of current methods. Opportunities for integrating machine learning are proposed. Here, by advancing the efficiency and user friendliness of multiscale modeling, it is argued that deeper insights into heterogeneous catalysis in liquid phases can be provided, which will ultimately contribute to the development of more efficient catalytic processes.

Ab initio molecular dynamics↗

Influence of Antarctic and Greenland Continental Shelf Circulation on High‐Latitude Oceans in E3SM

The science objectives of this project are to simulate and understand the impacts of both deep-basin warm-water intrusions and land-ice melt on the continental shelf circulations and sea-ice distributions around the margins of Greenland and Antarctica. As well, the role of subsurface ocean heat from the Atlantic on declining sea-ice cover in the Arctic is explored. Mesoscale processes and fine bathymetry are implicated in cross-shelf property transports around both Greenland and Antarctica. Therefore, we configured and ran an atmospheric reanalysis-forced global ocean/sea-ice simulation on a grid that reduces from 8 km at the Equator to 2 km at the poles (UH8to2) with 60 vertical levels. It was produced using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model ‘‘HiLAT’’ code (E3SMv0-HiLAT) that uses the Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and CICE5 as its ocean and sea-ice components, respectively. Two main UH8to2 simulations were carried out: one for 1975-2009 and the other for July 2016-2020 after it was initialized from a 1/25° data-assimilative ocean/sea-ice prediction system ocean/sea-ice state. The UH8to2 is not coupled to an active land-ice model. Rather, land-ice melt is represented by observationally informed freshwater fluxes (FWFs). Short (multi-year) UH8to2 simulations were conducted to understand sensitivities when Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt is released only at the ocean surface or when it is distributed over the upper water column in accordance with fjord melt plume behavior; these cases were compared with a no GrIS melt case. West Greenland continental shelf currents were fastest in the vertical distribution case and an increase in baroclinic conversion at the shelf break associated with increased eddy kinetic energy was found relative to the surface release case. Further, salinity is lower and meltwater volume greater in the eastern Labrador Sea in the vertical distribution case. For the Arctic, the veracity of the UH8to2 was evaluated for 2017-2020 using available observations. Simulated seasonal sea-ice thickness and concentration are realistic, but the ice is unrealistically thin in the central and eastern Arctic in the fall. Comparisons of vertical sections of ocean temperature, salinity, and buoyancy collected from Ice-Tethered Profilers (ITPs) in the eastern Arctic in the fall and winter of 2019/2020 and co-located/concurrent UH8to2 fields show the stratification over the top 100 m of the water column is too low in the model, the simulated mixed layer too deep, and the simulated subsurface Atlantic Water (AW) too warm; these biases may contribute to the sea-ice biases. A model intercomparison study using the UH8to2 and a forced 1/25° regional Arctic ocean/sea-ice (uses the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and CICE5) simulation further investigates the relationship between AW and sea-ice in the eastern Arctic. The models show a mesoscale-rich pulse of Atlantic Water extending into the eastern basin that reaches maximum intensity in late winter of 2018, after which it decreases in strength. Concurrent and co-located sea-ice melt or the inhibition of sea-ice growth is seen and is attributed to halocline mesoscale eddies doming into the mixed layer with convection bringing this heat into the vicinity of the sea-ice.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Identifying $\textit{f}$-electron symmetries of UTe 2 with O-edge resonant inelastic x-ray scattering

The recent discovery of spin-triplet superconductivity emerging from a nonmagnetic parent state in UTe 2 has stimulated great interest in the underlying mechanism of Cooper pairing. Experimental characterization of short-range electronic and magnetic correlations is vital to understanding these phenomena. Here we use resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS), x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), and atomic-multiplet-based modeling to shed light on the active debate between $5f^26d^1$-based models with singlet crystal field states versus $5f^3$-based models that predict atomic Kramers doublets and much greater $5\textit{f}$ itinerancy. In this work, the XAS and RIXS data are found to agree strongly with predictions for a $5f^26d^1$-like valence electron configuration with weak intradimer magnetic correlations, and provide a context for interpreting recent investigations of the electronic structure and superconducting pairing mechanism.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Application of a Null-Space Monte Carlo Flow Model Set to the Composite Analysis Base Case Fate and Transport Modeling

The Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the composite analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Limited Source Sensitivity Case.

The Plateau to River (P2R) is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company at the Hanford Site in Washington State. Figure 1 illustrates the P2R Model extents, discretization, and boundary conditions. The P2R Model is utilized in the Composite Analysis (CA) for the Hanford Site as the computational engine for computing F&T predictions as described in CP-60406, Hanford Site Composite Analysis Technical Approach Description: Groundwater. The model simulates contaminants of concern within the saturated zone of the uppermost aquifer beneath the Central Plateau and downgradient to the Columbia River. CP-57037, Model Package Report for the Plateau to River Model Version 8.3 documents the current version of the P2R Model including a description of the conceptual site model, model development and calibration, and limitations to the model application. Simulations conducted to support the dose calculations required by the CA are documented in ECF-HANFORD-19-0119, Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case and ECF-HANFORD-19-0120, Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PROSPECT: A Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment

Nuclear reactors are a source of copious amounts of electron antineutrinos. They are emitted in the beta decays of the fission products and their energies depend on the isotopic composition of the reactor. In recent years a number of reactor antineutrino experiments including Daya Bay, Double Chooz, and RENO reported a deficit in the measured flux of antineutrinos from reactors compared to expectation and a spectral deviation in the measured energy spectra compared to model predictions. These observations led to the hypothesis of sterile neutrino oscillation as an explanation of the flux deficit. New physics or incomplete nuclear models may explain the origin of the spectral deviation. PROSPECT, the Precision Reactor Oscillation and Spectrum Experiment, is a novel neutrino experiment at the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) designed to address two major scientific objectives: 1. Perform a search for eV-scale sterile neutrinos independent of reactor neutrino models by searching for the oscillation signature of massive, sterile neutrino states beyond the 3 known active neutrino species. The discovery of sterile neutrinos would indicate a new form of matter and require physics beyond the Standard Model. 2. Perform the first modern precision measurement of the antineutrino spectrum from a Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) 235 U reactor to benchmark our understanding of the neutrino emission from nuclear reactors and to understand the isotopic origin of spectral deviations observed in previous reactor neutrino experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

How the Bioinspired Fe 2 Mo 6 S 8 Chevrel Breaks Electrocatalytic Nitrogen Reduction Scaling Relations

The nitrogen reduction reaction (NRR) is a renewable alternative to the energy- and CO 2 -intensive Haber–Bosch NH 3 synthesis process but is severely limited by the low activity and selectivity of studied electrocatalysts. The Chevrel phase Fe 2 Mo 6 S 8 has a surface Fe–S–Mo coordination environment that mimics the nitrogenase FeMo-cofactor and was recently shown to provide state-of-the-art activity and selectivity for NRR. Here, we elucidate the previously unknown NRR mechanism on Fe 2 Mo 6 S 8 via grand-canonical density functional theory (GC-DFT) that realistically models solvated and biased surfaces. Fe sites of Fe 2 Mo 6 S 8 selectively stabilize the key *NNH intermediate via a narrow band of free-atom-like surface d-states that selectively hybridize with p-states of *NNH, which results in Fe sites breaking NRR scaling relationships. These sharp d-states arise from an Fe–S bond dissociation during N 2 adsorption that mimics the mechanism of the nitrogenase FeMo-cofactor. Furthermore, we developed a new GC-DFT-based approach for calculating transition states as a function of bias (GC-NEB) and applied it to produce a microkinetic model for NRR at Fe 2 Mo 6 S 8 that predicts high activity and selectivity, in close agreement with experiments. Furthermore, our results suggest new design principles that may identify effective NRR electrocatalysts that minimize the barriers for *N 2 protonation and *NH 3 desorption and that may be broadly applied to the rational discovery of stable, multinary electrocatalysts for other reactions where narrow bands of surface d-states can be tuned to selectively stabilize key reaction intermediates and guide selectivity toward a target product. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of using GC-DFT and GC-NEB to accurately model electrocatalytic reactions.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Facile electrocatalytic proton reduction by a [Fe–Fe]-hydrogenase bio-inspired synthetic model bearing a terminal CN — ligand

An azadithiolate bridged CN — bound pentacarbonyl bis-iron complex, mimicking the active site of [Fe–Fe] H 2 ase is synthesized. The geometric and electronic structure of this complex is elucidated using a combination of EXAFS analysis, infrared and Mössbauer spectroscopy and DFT calculations. The electrochemical investigations show that complex 1 effectively reduces H + to H 2 between pH 0–3 at diffusion-controlled rates (10 11 M —1 s —1 ) i.e. 10 8 s —1 at pH 3 with an overpotential of 140 mV. Electrochemical analysis and DFT calculations suggests that a CN— ligand increases the p K a of the cluster enabling hydrogen production from its Fe(I)–Fe(0) state at pHs much higher and overpotential much lower than its precursor bis-iron hexacarbonyl model which is active in its Fe(0)–Fe(0) state. The formation of a terminal Fe–H species, evidenced by spectroelectrochemistry in organic solvent, via a rate determining proton coupled electron transfer step and protonation of the adjacent azadithiolate, lowers the kinetic barrier leading to diffusion controlled rates of H 2 evolution. The stereo-electronic factors enhance its catalytic rate by 3 order of magnitude relative to a bis-iron hexacarbonyl precursor at the same pH and potential.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Predictive Contaminant Transport Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Recharge Sensitivity Case

The Plateau-to-River (P2R) model is a groundwater flow and contaminant fate and transport (F&T) simulation model used to support remedial activities conducted by the Central Plateau Cleanup Company (CPCCo) at the Hanford Site in south-central Washington State. The overall objective of the saturated zone modeling effort is to provide a basis for making informed remedial action decisions based on descriptions of current and expected future contaminant concentrations in groundwater at decision points within and downgradient of the Central Plateau of the Hanford Site. Specifically, the purpose of this environmental calculation file (ECF) is to describe a recharge sensitivity case of the CA base case. The recharge sensitivity case implements a change in the activity contribution from the vadose zone in the A Trenches Area model (for tritium [H-3] and iodine-129 [I-129]), BC Cribs and Trenches model (for I-129 and technetium-99 [Tc-99]), or the Plutonium Uranium Extraction (PUREX) Area model (for H-3 and I-129). All other simulated inventories are identical to the CA base case. The simulation of fate and transport of contaminants reported in this case will support dose predictions as part of the updated Hanford Site CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Xanthohumol Alters Gut Microbiota Metabolism and Bile Acid Dynamics in Gastrointestinal Simulation Models of Eubiotic and Dysbiotic States

Xanthohumol (XN), a polyphenol from hops (Humulus lupulus), exhibits antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antihyperlipidemic, and chemo-preventive activity. Preclinical evidence suggests gut microbiota are critical to mediating some of these bioactivities. Nevertheless, its precise impact on human gut microbiota, particularly at supplemental doses, remains poorly characterized. We evaluated 200 mg/day XN for 3 weeks on human gut microbiota in a eubiotic and dysbiotic model using the Simulator of the Human Intestinal Microbial Ecosystem (SHIME®). Functional assessments of microbiota included quantification of XN metabolites, short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs), and untargeted metabolomics of the digestive metabolome. Bacterial composition was assessed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. XN reduced alpha-diversity and short-chain fatty acid production in both models, as well as altered taxa abundance variably between models. XN disrupted bile acid metabolism through inhibition of microbial bile salt hydrolase (BSH). The modulation of bile acid metabolism has important implications for host-level bioactivity of XN.

Humulus lupulus↗

RAAW

High-fidelity wind turbine modeling advances necessitate model validation datasets of equally high fidelity. The Rotor Aerodynamics, Aeroelastics & Wake (RAAW) project was designed to address this need. This three-year project runs from October 2021 through October 2024 starting with a field data collection period followed by model validation activities. RAAW is a partnership between GE Renewable Energy and the United States Department of Energy (DOE) through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Sandia National Laboratories. The field experiment is designed to make detailed measurements of the inflow, wind turbine response, and the resulting wake. The experimental dataset will be suitable for validating wind turbine models across the fidelity spectrum from actuator disk methods to blade-resolved codes.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗