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Effects of polar ice on the earth's rotation and gravitational potential

The contributions of the Antarctic and the Greenland ice sheets to the earth's gravity, displacement, and rotation are estimated using gridded values of the net surface accumulation rates in the ice sheets of these two regions. It is found that the contributions to the low-order zonal harmonic coefficients of the earth's gravitational potential from Antarctica are between 2 and 10 times larger than the uncertainties of the zonal harmonics derived from satellite solutions; for Greenland, the coefficients are within an order of magnitude of the uncertainties of the satellite solutions. Polar contributions to the displacement of the center of mass of the solid earth, as seen in the frame of reference of satellites tracked from the earth surface, range from less than 1 mm to 1.5 cm over a 60-yr period.

Trupin, Andrew S.

Global Geodetic Signatures of the Antarctic Ice Sheet

Four scenarios of present day Antarctic ice sheet mass change are developed from comprehensive reviews of the available glaciological and oceanographic evidence. The gridded scenarios predict widely varying contributions to secular sea level change xi ranging from -1.1 to 0.45 mm/yr, and predict polar motion m and time-varying low-degree gravitational coefficients J(sub l) that differ significantly from earlier estimates. A reasonably linear relationship between the rate of sea level change from Antarctica xi(sub A) and the predicted Antarctic J(sub l) is found for the four scenarios. This linearity permits a series of forward models to be constructed that incorporate the effects of ice mass changes in Antarctica, Greenland, and distributed smaller glaciers, as well as postglacial rebound (assuming the ICE-3G deglaciation history), with the goal of obtaining optimum reconciliation between observed constraints on J(sub l) and sea level rise xi. Numerous viable combinations of lower mantle viscosity and hydrologic sources are found that safely "observed" in the range of 1 to 2-2.5 mm/yr and observed J(sub l) for degrees 2, 3, and 4. In contrast, rates of global sea level rise above 2.5 mm/yr are inconsistent with available J(sub l) observations. The successful composite models feature a pair of lower mantle viscosity solutions arising from the sensitivity of J(sub l) to glacial rebound. The paired values are well separated at xi = 1 mm/yr, but move closer together as xi is increased, and, in fact, merge around xi = 2 - 2.5 mm/yr, revealing an intimate relation between xi and preferred lower mantle viscosity. This general pattern is quite robust and persists for different J(sub l) solutions, for variations in source assumptions, and for different styles of lower mantle viscosity stratification. Tighter J(sub l) constraints for l greater than 2 may allow some viscosity stratification schemes and source assumptions to be excluded in the future. For a given total observed xi the sea level rise from Antarctica xi(sub A) is tightly constrained and ranges from 0 to + 1 mr/yr (corresponding to an ablating ice sheet) as estimates of xi are raised from 1 to 2.5 mm/yr. However, when the degree 3 zonal harmonic constraint is removed, the solutions show little sensitivity to Antarctic mass balance, emphasizing the need for a well determined odd-degree secular zonal harmonic for determining polar ice mass balance.

James, Thomas S.

Expansion of the gravitational potential with computerized Poisson series

The paper describes a recursive formulation for the expansion of the gravitational potential valid for both the tesseral and zonal harmonics. The expansion is primarily in rectangular coordinates, but the classical orbit elements or equinoctial orbit elements can be easily substituted. The equations of motion for the zonal harmonics in both classical and equinoctial orbital elements are described in a form which will result in closed-form expressions for the first-order perturbations. In order to achieve this result, the true longitude or true anomaly have to be used as independent variables.

Broucke, R.

Antarctic Rebound and the Time-Dependence of the Earth's Shape

Great strides have been made during the past 30 years in refining models of the last global glaciation. The refinements draw upon a vastly expanded relative sea level and sedimentary core record. Furthermore, we now possess a sharpened understanding of the mechanisms that drive climate changes associated with deglaciation. Some 15 years ago, using only 5.5 years of ranging data, analyses of the drift in LAGEOS I node acceleration was used to infer that postglacial rebound was responsible for a secular change in the Earth's ellipsoidal shape (Yoder et al., .1983]. Today there exists a wealth of geodynamics satellite orbit data that constrain the secular time-dependence of the Earth's shape and low order gravity field, which includes mass redistribution from present-day glacier and great ice sheet imbalance and from postglacial rebound. We have shown that an unambiguous determination of the secular variation in the Earth's pear shaped harmonic (l = 3, m = 0) might provide information that bears on the present-day mass balance of Antarctica. This issue is revisited in light of new constraints on glacial loading during the late-Pleistocene and Holocene. An especially critical issue for the interpretation of secular odd degree zonal harmonics, l = 3 to 7, is the timing and magnitude of the deglaciation of Antarctica from Last Glacial Maximum. We explore ways in which the recovery of secular variation in both zonal and non-zonal harmonics for l = 2 through 7 can improve constraints on both rebound and present-day ice sheet balance.

Ivins, Erik R.

The inner edge of Saturn's B ring

The sharp, 90-km wide transition from an optical depth of 0.2 in the C ring to 1 in the B ring begins at 91,970 km from Saturn's center. This radius is found to be almost exactly at the inward stability limit of charged particles launched in the ring plane at the local Kepler velocity, provided these particles have large charge to mass ratio. The zonal harmonic models of Saturn's magnetic field from the Voyager data and the gravitational field model from Pioneer data are essential to get the very close agreement between theory and observation. The theoretical stability limits are 91,973 + or - 145 km from Voyager 1 magnetic field data and 91,991 + or 145 km from Voyager 2 magnetic data. The zonal harmonic magnetic field lines are not perpendicular to the ring plane. Therefore, in addition to the magnetic mirror, gravitational, and centrifugal forces, an unknown force must be postulated to produce equilibrium in the ring plane and make the stability calculation meaningful.

Northrop, T. G.

Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD): an Analysis Tool for Spacecraft Safety Analysis and Ascent/Reentry Risk Assessment

For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of For the purpose of performing safety analysis and risk assessment for a probable offnominal suborbital/orbital atmospheric reentry resulting in vehicle breakup, a synthesis of trajectory propagation coupled with thermal analysis and the evaluation of node failure is required to predict the sequence of events, the timeline, and the progressive demise of spacecraft components. To provide this capability, the Simulation for Prediction of Entry Article Demise (SPEAD) analysis tool was developed. This report discusses the capabilities, modeling, and validation of the SPEAD analysis tool. SPEAD is applicable for Earth or Mars, with the option for 3 or 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) trajectory propagation. The atmosphere and aerodynamics data are supplied in tables, for linear interpolation of up to 4 independent variables. The gravitation model can include up to 20 zonal harmonic coefficients. The modeling of a single motor is available and can be adapted to multiple motors. For thermal analysis, the aerodynamic radiative and free-molecular/continuum convective heating, black-body radiative cooling, conductive heat transfer between adjacent nodes, and node ablation are modeled. In a 6- DOF simulation, the local convective heating on a node is a function of Mach, angle-ofattack, and sideslip angle, and is dependent on 1) the location of the node in the spacecraft and its orientation to the flow modeled by an exposure factor, and 2) the geometries of the spacecraft and the node modeled by a heating factor and convective area. Node failure is evaluated using criteria based on melting temperature, reference heat load, g-load, or a combination of the above. The failure of a liquid propellant tank is evaluated based on burnout flux from nucleate boiling or excess internal pressure. Following a component failure, updates are made as needed to the spacecraft mass and aerodynamic properties, nodal exposure and heating factors, and nodal convective and conductive areas. This allows the trajectory to be propagated seamlessly in a single run, inclusive of the trajectories of components that have separated from the spacecraft. The node ablation simulates the decreasing mass and convective/reference areas, and variable heating factor. A built-in database provides the thermo-mechanical properties of

Ling, Lisa

The generation of mesospheric planetary waves by zonally asymmetric gravity wave breaking

A semispectral numerical model is used to study the influence of a longitudinally varying gravity wave source on the general circulation of the winter mesosphere. The gravity wave source consists of stationary (topographic) waves with a longitudinally varying amplitude distribution that is approximated by the first two terms in a zonal harmonic expansion (i.e., the zonal mean plus planetary wavenumber 1). The computed zonal mean circulation in the mesosphere is nearly the same as that computed for a zonally symmetric gravity wave source of equal amplitude. However, the asymmetric source excites a strong stationary wavenumber 1 disturbance near the level of gravity wave breaking (equal to about 71 km). This disturbance has a zonal wind maximum about 1/4-cycle upstream from the gravity wave drag maximum. It is concluded that vertically propagating gravity waves produced in the troposphere are a possible source for mesospheric planetary waves.

Holton, J. R.

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Chao, Benjamin F.

Periodic gravitational perturbations for conversion between osculating and mean orbit elements

Algorithms for converting between osculating and mean orbit elements are currently limited to computing the contribution due to the second zonal harmonic (J2). This paper presents an improved conversion algorithm that includes the effects of all zonal, sectorial and tesseral harmonics, second order J2, and third-body gravitational perturbations. Mean elements are useful for preliminary orbit and maneuver design; however, for more precise work, such as groundtrack targeting, osculating elements are required. This improved conversion algorithm was developed to meet accuracy requirements for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission; but, additional use can be considered for satellites orbiting planets like Venus that do not have a dominant J2. Results are presented from tests performed using the new algorithm with the planned TOPEX/Poseidon earth orbit as well as the Mars Observer and proposed circular Magellan (Venus) orbits.

Guinn, Joseph R.

The Impact Trajectory of Asteroid 2008 TC3

Asteroid 2008 TC3 was the rst asteroid ever discovered before reaching Earth. By using the almost 900 astrometric observations acquired prior to impact we estimate the trajectory of 2008 TC3 and the ground-track of the impact location as a function of altitude. For a reference altitude of 100 km the impact location 3- formal uncertainty is a 1.4 km 0.15 km ellipse with a semimajor axis azimuth of 105. We analyze the contribution of modeling errors and nd that the second-order zonal harmonics of the Earth gravity eld moves the ground-track by more than 1 km and the location along the ground-track by more than 2 km. Non-zonal and higher order harmonics only change the impact prediction by less than 20 m. The contribution of the atmospheric drag to the trajectory of 2008 TC3 is at the numerical integration error level, a few meters, down to an altitude of 50 km. Integrating forward to lower altitudes and ignoring the break-up of 2008 TC3, the atmospheric drag causes an along-track error that can be as large as a few kilometers at sea level. The locations of the recovered meteorites is consistent with the computed ground-track.

Trajectory

Zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function, from zero to 18th order

Zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function are usually tabulated in normalized form to provide immediate information as to the relative significance of the coefficients in the gravity model. The normalized form of the geopotential coefficients cannot be used for computational purposes unless the gravity model has been modified to receive them. This modification is usually not done because the absolute or unnormalized form of the coefficients can be obtained from the simple mathematical relationship that relates the two forms. This computation can be quite tedious for hand calculation, especially for the higher order terms, and can be costly in terms of storage and execution time for machine computation. In this report, zonal and tesseral harmonic coefficients for the geopotential function are tabulated in absolute or unnormalized form. The report is designed to be used as a ready reference for both hand and machine calculation to save the user time and effort.

Kirkpatrick, J. C.

Variability of quasi-stationary planetary waves

The results of the analysis of nonzonal perturbations (m = 1, 2, 3) of the geopotential field at a 30 mb level are presented. A long period modulation of the harmonics' amplitude is discovered. Calculations of eigenfunctions and eigennumbers of the Laplace tidal equation are carried out for a real latitudinal wind profile. The observed first zonal harmonic in different years is caused by the same mode. Thus, the difference in the wave amplitudes could not be accounted for by the difference in stratospheric zonal circulation in different years and should be related to tropospheric processes.

Krivolutsky, A. A.

Characteristics of cosmic ray pole-equator anisotropy derived from spherical harmonic analysis of neutron monitor data

The spherical harmonic analysis of cosmic ray neutron data from the worldwide network neutron monitor stations during the years, 1966 to 1969 was carried out. The second zonal harmonic component obtained from the analysis corresponds to the Pole-Equator anisotropy of the cosmic ray neutron intensity. Such an anisotropy makes a semiannual variation. In addition to this, it is shown that the Pole-Equator anisotropy makes a variation depending on the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) sector polarities around the passages of the IMF sector boundary. A mechanism to interpret these results is also discussed.

Takahashi, H.

An economical semi-analytical orbit theory for micro-computer applications

An economical algorithm is presented for predicting the position of a satellite perturbed by drag and zonal harmonics J2 through J4. Simplicity being of the essence, drag is modeled as a secular decay rate in the semimajor axis (retarded motion) with the zonal perturbations modeled from a modified version of Brouwers formulas. The algorithm is developed as an alternative on-board orbit predictor; a back up propagator requiring low energy consumption; or a ground based propagator for microcomputer applications (e.g., at the foot of an antenna). An O(J2) secular retarded state partial matrix (matrizant) is also given to employ with state estimation. The theory has been implemented in BASIC on an inexpensive microcomputer, the program occupying under 8K bytes of memory. Simulated trajectory data and real tracking data are employed to illustrate the theory's ability to accurately accommodate oblateness and drag effects.

Gordon, R. A.