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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Char Yield of High-Temperature Resins

A simulation protocol is developed to predict the char yield of organic resins during high-temperature processing. Simulation protocol in silico methods can help screen promising new formulations for advanced materials, but previously no chemistry-sensitive technique existed to predict the important experimental value of char yield. The method utilizes a reactive force field (ReaxFF) to model the chemical transformation of precursor monomers into carbonized structures during three processing stages: ramp-up to processing temperatures (~3000 K), pyrolysis, and quenching. Achieving good agreement with experimental char yields requires continuous removal of small byproduct molecules to mimic outgassing, and the application of high pressure to eliminate porosity and encourage graphitization. More than ten different resin chemistries are investigated, including arylacetylenes, cyanate esters, phthalonitriles, and polyimides, representing a diverse group of precursors with respect to initial cyclic content, heteroatoms and reactive groups. The protocol correctly predicts the relative char yield between the investigated chemistries and provides quantitative agreement with experimental values, especially for high char yield resins. The properties of the resins during processing are compared, including outgassing products, morphology of the final chemical configurations, cyclic content and mechanical properties.

polymer simulations, molecular dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Char Yield of High-Temperature Resins

A simulation technique has been developed for predicting the char yield of organic resins during high-temperature processing. In silico methods can aid in the screening of new advanced materials for a number of important properties, but no chemistry-sensitive protocol currently exists for predicting the important experimental value of char yield. The proposed method utilizes a reactive force field (ReaxFF) to model the chemical transformation of precursor monomers into carbonized structures during three processing stages: ramp-up to pyrolysis temperatures (~3000 K), pyrolysis, and quenching. Achieving good agreement with experimental char yields requires continuous removal of small by-product molecules to mimic outgassing, and the application of high pressure to encourage the formation of a dense, glassy network. Six different resin chemistries were investigated: an ethynyl, a phenylethynyl, a cyanate ester, a phthalonitrile, acrylonitrile, and adamantane. These candidates represent a diverse group of precursors with respect to initial cyclic content, presence of heteroatoms, and types of reactive groups. The protocol developed accurately predicts the relative char yield between the investigated chemistries and provides quantitative agreement with experimental values, especially for high char yield resins. Several simulated properties of the carbonized structures are compared with experimental results, including outgassing products, morphology of the final chemical configurations, cyclic content, and mechanical properties.

polymer simulations, molecular dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of conical slump shape reconstructed from stereovision images for yield stress prediction

Highlights: • Conical slump model tends to underpredict yield stress of material by slump height. • Profiles of slumped materials were reconstructed from stereovision images. • Actual profiles were compared to those predicted by cone and cylinder model. • The cause of deviation lies in the cylinder-like behaviour of conical slumping. • The model of equivalent cylinder could give an accurate yield stress value. Slump cones are widely utilised to evaluate the workability of cement materials owing to their simplicity. Analytical models have been established to relate this empirical value to the yield stress. However, they tend to be less effective for the cone and more valid for cylinder slumps. The cause of this deviation is yet to be fully understood. In this work, more details were sought from slump profiles using stereovision technology. A direct comparison of the predicted shapes based on conical model as well as cylindrical model to actual shapes was undertaken. The visual illustration clearly indicated that conical slumping shows a cylinder-like behaviour, and the slumped shapes in cone tests agree well with those predicted by an equivalent cylinder. By converting to cylindrical dimensionless units, the conical slump height can provide an accurate yield stress. The results suggest that the theory is valid if the slumping behaviour is effectively assumed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗
DOE OSTI2021

First observation of increased DT yield over prediction due to addition of hydrogen

Here, in a number of reported instances, implosions utilizing fuel mixtures have resulted in anomalously low fusion yields below those predicted by radiation-hydrodynamics simulations. Inter-species ion diffusion has been suggested as a possible cause of the observed yield degradation in fuel mixture implosions. An experimental platform utilizing hydro-equivalent deuterium–tritium (DT), deuterium–tritium–hydrogen (DTH), and deuterium-tritium-helium3 (DT 3 He) capsule implosions was developed to determine whether the inter-species ion diffusion theory may describe the resulting fuel mixture implosion behavior. The implosion experiments were performed at the Omega laser facility. X-ray images and shell areal density diagnostics results show that the hydro-equivalent three capsules (DT, DTH, and DT 3 He) have similar compression behavior. However, nuclear yield deviation was observed from the scaling determined using a fusion yield formula. In the DT 3 He mixture, a reduced yield of a factor of 0.65 ± 0.13 was observed, which is similar to a yield reduction observed in D 3 He mixture by Rygg et al. (i.e., Rygg effect). In contrast, in the DTH mixture, a factor of 1.17 ±0.15 yield increase was observed, which we named the inverse Rygg effect. The yield increase observed in the DTH mixture is consistent with the inter-species ion diffusion theory where lighter H diffuses away from the core and concentrated DT in the core produces higher yield. An inter-species ion diffusion model, the Zimmerman–Paquette–Kagan–Zhdanov model, implemented in a Lagrangian radiation-hydrodynamics fluid code, was also used to analyze the present data, without the need to assume hydrodynamic equivalence of the capsules, but it does not completely explain the DTH or DT 3 He capsules although its effects are in the correct direction. Simulation-based Bayesian inference was used in the latter analysis to quantify the uncertainty in the numerical simulations. The simulation-based analysis resulted in an inferred Rygg-effect yield decrease factor of 0.91 ± 0.02 for the DT 3 He mixture, and an inferred inverse-Rygg yield increase factor of 1.21 ± 0.04 for the DTH mixture, based on simulations ignoring ion diffusion.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Anisotropic yield models for lattice unit cell structures exploiting orthotropic symmetry

We report numerical homogenization enables efficient computational analysis and design of multiscale structures made of micro-architected materials including lattice unit cells. However, predicting yield is nontrivial because it requires accurate and efficient predictions of the maximum stress inside the homogenized unit cells. To address this challenge, we develop a macroscale anisotropic yield function for micro-architected materials. The yield function depends on the three-dimensional macroscale stress state and the parameters describing a family of micro-architectures, such as the radii of the struts in a lattice unit cell. To ensure accuracy, we determine the maximum stress using three-dimensional continuum finite-element analysis. To ensure efficiency, we construct surrogate models from the aforementioned high-fidelity results for yield prediction. To reduce simulation costs and surrogate modeling complexity, we leverage orthotropic symmetry commonly found in lattice unit cells. In this paper, we provide a thorough presentation of group representations and the systematic procedure to exploit orthotropic domain symmetry in homogenization and surrogate modeling. We illustrate the use of linear homogenization results to predict yield in specific unit cells without further simulations. We furthermore show that surrogate modeling presents a viable option for anisotropic yield prediction in a continuously parametrized family of micro-architectures. More specifically, despite the dimensionality and degree of nonlinearity in the maximum micro von Mises stress within the unit cell, the surrogate models can predict it with less than 5% error at least 90% of the time. Moreover, the largest under-prediction error, which is more critical than the over-prediction error, is typically less than 10%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗
NASA NTRS1984

Simplified combustion noise theory yielding a prediction of fluctuating pressure level

The first order equations for the conservation of mass and momentum in differential form are combined for an ideal gas to yield a single second order partial differential equation in one dimension and time. Small perturbation analysis is applied. A Fourier transformation is performed that results in a second order, constant coefficient, nonhomogeneous equation. The driving function is taken to be the source of combustion noise. A simplified model describing the energy addition via the combustion process gives the required source information for substitution in the driving function. This enables the particular integral solution of the nonhomogeneous equation to be found. This solution multiplied by the acoustic pressure efficiency predicts the acoustic pressure spectrum measured in turbine engine combustors. The prediction was compared with the overall sound pressure levels measured in a CF6-50 turbofan engine combustor and found to be in excellent agreement.

Huff, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data from: Biomass yield, yield components and growing season phenotypic measurements of Miscanthus

For sustainable biomass production of Miscanthus × giganteus (hereafter miscanthus), understanding the impact of stand age and nitrogen (N) fertilization on biomass yield is crucial. This study investigated the effects of varying N fertilization rates (0, 56, 112, and 168 kg N ha-1) on yield components (tiller height, density, and weight) and their correlations with end-of-season biomass yield in miscanthus. We also explored end-of-season biomass yield prediction using in-season traits (canopy height, leaf area index (LAI), and leaf chlorophyll content (LCC)). The study was conducted at two sites in Illinois: a previously unfertilized 10-year-old miscanthus research stand at Urbana and a 16-year-old commercial stand at Pesotum with a history of annual 56N application. Results from 2018-2021 in Urbana and 2020-2021 in Pesotum showed increased biomass yields with N fertilization, varying by rate, year, and location. Biomass yield in Pesotum peaked at 56N, while in Urbana, it increased significantly at 112 kg N ha-1. Biomass yield was strongly correlated with tiller height and weight measured at Urbana across N rates. Morphological traits measured every 2-3 weeks during the 2020 and 2021 growing seasons showed that canopy height was the strongest single predictor of miscanthus biomass yield, followed by LCC. Mid-August to September measurements of these traits were the best predictors of biomass yield. Multiple regressions involving the canopy height and LCC further improved yield predictions. We conclude that while N enhances biomass yields of aging miscanthus, the optimum rate depends on the site, environmental conditions, and management.

Aging↗
NASA NTRS1983

Remote Sensing Program

Field spectroradiometric and airborne multispectral scanner data were related to vineyard yield and other agronomic variables in an attempt to determine the optimum wavelengths for yield prediction modeling. Reflections between vine canopy reflectance and several management practices were also considered. Spectral analysis of test vines found that, although some correlations with vine yield were significant, they were inadequate for producing a yield prediction model. The findings also indicate that the vines examined through the field spectroradiometers were not truly representative. Geologic linears identified from aerial photographys, LANDSAT images, and maps were compared to gas well locations in three New York' counties. Correlations were found between the dominant trends in regional liners and gas field boundaries and trends. Other projects being conducted under the grant include determining vegetable acreage in mucklands, site selection for windmills, spectral effects of sulfur dioxide, and screening tomato seedlings for salt tolerance.

Philipson, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Fault type predictions from stress distributions on planetary surfaces - Importance of fault initiation depth

The prediction of fault type on planetary surfaces from model stresses calculated at depth is discussed. These fault-type predictions yield different faults than those predicted using the surface criteria commonly employed in geophysical models. For elastic-plate flexure models of mascon loading on the moon, stresses calculated at the surface predict the occurrence of strike-slip faulting at the radial distance where grabens are found. Normal faults bounding lunar grabens and thrust faults responsible for wrinkle ridges are analyzed. It is found that the former initiate at the mechanical discontinuity that separates the breccia of the megaregolith from in situ fractured rock and that the latter initiate at the mechanical discontinuity between basalt layers and the underlying basin floor. The difference between elastic constants for the outer few kilometers of brecciated megaregolith and the underlying lunar lithosphere are evaluated. Superposing nonisotropic stresses resulting from the weight of overburden to the depth of the relevant mechanical discontinuity yield stresses that predict wrinkle ridges in the basin centers and grabens outside the basin margin, and eliminate the predicted zone of strike-slip faults.

Golombek, M. P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of Anisotropic Porosity on Heat Transfer and Off-Gassing during Biomass Pyrolysis

The pore structure of biogenic materials imbues the ability to deliver water and nutrients through a plant from root to leaf. This anisotropic pore granularity can also play a significant role in processes such as biomass pyrolysis that are used to convert these materials into useful products like heat, fuel, and chemicals. Evolutions in modeling of biomass pyrolysis as well as imaging of pore structures allow for further insights into the concerted physics of phase change-induced off-gassing, heat transfer, and chemical reactions. In this work, we report a biomass single particle model which incorporates these physics to explore the impact of implementing anisotropic permeability and diffusivity on the conversion time and yields predicted for pyrolysis of oak and pine particles. Simulation results showed that anisotropic permeability impacts predicted conversion time more than 2 times when the Biot number is above 0.1 and pyrolysis numbers (Py 1 , Py 2 ) are less than 20. Pore structure significantly impacts predicted pyrolytic conversion time (>8 times) when the Biot number is above 1 and the pyrolysis number is below 1, i.e., the “conduction controlled” regime. Therefore, these nondimensional numbers reflect that when internal heat conduction limits pyrolysis performance, internal pyrolysis off-gassing further retards effective heat transfer rates as a closely coupled phenomenon. Overall, this study highlights physically meaningful opportunities to improve particle-scale pyrolysis modeling and experimental validation relevant to a variety of feedstock identities and preparations, guiding the future design of pyrolyzers for efficient biomass conversion.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detailed biomass fast pyrolysis kinetics integrated to computational fluid dynamic (CFD) and discrete element modeling framework: Predicting product yields at the bench-scale

Fast pyrolysis is an intricate process due to the variability and anisotropy of lignocellulosic biomass and the complicated chemistry and physics during conversion in a bubbling fluidized bed reactor (BFBR). The complexity of biomass fast pyrolysis lends itself well to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and discrete element (DEM) analysis, which promises to reduce experimental time and its associated cost. This work investigated switchgrass fast pyrolysis simulated by computational fluid dynamics coupled with a discrete element method to track individual reacting biomass particles throughout a bench-scale BFBR reactor. We accounted for the fast pyrolysis chemistry through a comprehensive reaction scheme with secondary cracking reactions. We performed a three-step reduction for secondary cracking reactions to convert the full cracking scheme into a reduced scheme easily incorporated into our model. We assessed the impact of operational conditions on the steady-state yields of liquid bio-oil, non-condensable gases (NCG), at 550 °C over a range of fluidization numbers (2 – 6 Umf), reported as a ratio to the minimum fluidization velocity (Umf). At steady-state, the volatile bio-oil yield had a range of 49.3–50.4 wt%. Levoglucosan was the primary volatile component present with 21 wt% of the bio-oil while water was the second largest with 20 wt%. The reduction of the secondary reaction schemes did not appreciably affect the overall yields of switchgrass pyrolysis compared to the full secondary scheme.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1972

An integrated study of earth resources in the State of California using remote sensing techniques

Remote sensing activities for the management of California's water project are reported. Integrated efforts are based largely on airborne remote sensing data processing to inventory the various kinds of earth resources observed. Work centered on defining parameters pertinent to determine water yield and discernible through remote sensing techniques; (2) determining accuracy in measuring and mapping parameters using remote sensing data flown to various specifications; and (3) relating water yield predictions to actual water yields. Remote sensing imagery of the Perris valley shows that land developers established a number of locations to promote present agricultural land for non-agricultural land use.

Colwell, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Contribution of Solar Brightening to the US Maize Yield Trend

Predictions of crop yield under future climate change are predicated on historical yield trends1,2,3, hence it is important to identify the contributors to historical yield gains and their potential for continued increase. The large gains in maize yield in the US Corn Belt have been attributed to agricultural technologies4, ignoring the potential contribution of solar brightening (decadal-scale increases in incident solar radiation) reported for much of the globe since the mid-1980s. In this study, using a novel biophysical/empirical approach, we show that solar brightening contributed approximately 27% of the US Corn Belt yield trend from 1984 to 2013. Accumulated solar brightening during the post-flowering phase of development of maize increased during the past three decades, causing the yield increase that previously had been attributed to agricultural technology. Several factors are believed to cause solar brightening, but their relative importance and future outlook are unknown, making prediction of continued solar brightening and its future contribution to yield gain uncertain. Consequently, results of this study call into question the implicit use of historical yield trends in predicting yields under future climate change scenarios.

Matthijs Tollenaar↗