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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Field Evaluation of Do-It-Yourself Air Filtration Solutions for Evaporative Coolers to Reduce Ambient Particle Infiltration in Homes in Wildfire-Affected Communities

Evaporative coolers (ECs) introduce outdoor air pollutants indoors when operating. This study evaluates the potential of do-it-yourself (DIY) air filtration solutions for ECs to cost-effectively reduce the infiltration of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in homes with ECs using measurements in 48 homes in wildfire-affected agricultural communities in California. All homes received one portable air cleaner (PAC); 25 homes also received DIY filters (mostly MERV 13) attached to their ECs. PurpleAir monitors measured indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations. PAC operation was monitored in all of the homes. EC usage was monitored in some homes and predicted using relative humidity dynamics in all homes. Conditional analyses between EC likely on and off conditions were used to evaluate the impacts of DIY EC filters on ambient PM2.5 infiltration, including during several wildfire-affected days. Median levels of ambient PM2.5 infiltration increased ∼36-42% in homes with only PAC interventions when ECs were likely operating compared to only ∼10-11% in homes with both PACs and DIY EC filters. Pre/postintervention comparisons in a subset of homes confirmed PM2.5 infiltration reductions. EC filter performance declined after extended use. Results suggest that short-term EC filter deployments are likely a cost-effective way to mitigate wildfire smoke infiltration inside these homes.

Wang, Mingyu↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elevated Forest Canopy Loss After Wildfires in Moist and Cool Forests in the Pacific Northwest

Wildfire frequency, intensity, and rate of spread are increasing across the Western U.S, resulting in more severe ecosystem impacts. Significant tree mortality can occur years after fire events, but this has received little attention compared to the immediate tree loss during a fire. We overlapped forest cover loss data with burn severity maps in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and quantified the total and delayed forest canopy loss after fires. We found that wildfires resulted in total canopy loss fraction (CLF) of 84%, 53%, and 22% within 3 years in areas burned at high, moderate, and low severity, respectively. The delayed canopy loss accounted for approximately 1/3, 1/2, and 2/3 of the total canopy loss for high, moderate, and low severity burns. Delayed canopy loss was greater in moist and cool areas than in dry and warm areas, likely because tree species in wetter environments were less adapted to survive when fires did occur. Across all forests, delayed CLF doubled as temperature increased from the climatological mean to a hot anomaly and tripled as vapor pressure deficit increased from a wet anomaly to a dry anomaly. Fire impacts on forest ecosystems are likely to intensify under future climate scenarios as wildfires expand into areas that historically experienced infrequent fires. The impacts can also be exacerbated by more frequent compound extreme events, such as droughts, heatwaves, and fires. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted forest management strategies, particularly in mesic forests, to mitigate future fire impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Remote Sensing of Live Fuel Moisture for Wildfires Using SMAP Satellite Observations

Live Fuel Moisture (LFM) is a critical parameter for wildfire risk assessment, traditionally measured by labor-intensive field sampling. However, sampled LFM data are influenced by site-specific factors, such as local vegetation types and plant traits, and are often collected retrospectively after wildfire events, making it difficult to obtain pre-fire data for predictive applications. Here, we evaluate the relationship between LFM and Vegetation Water Content (VWC) and Soil Moisture (SM) retrieved from SMAP L-band brightness temperature using the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) approach. The MEP-retrieved VWC exhibited strong correlation with in situ measurements of LFM ( r > 0.6) in the Western U.S. The integration of high-resolution vegetation coverage data enhances the detection of sub-grid vegetation heterogeneity. This study demonstrates the operational potential of remote sensing derived VWC as a scalable proxy of LFM, supporting its application in regional assessment of wildfire risk.

Cho, Kyeungwoo [Georgia Institute of Technology, A↗
DOE OSTI2024

Security constrained optimal power shutoff for wildfire risk mitigation

Abstract Electric grid faults are increasingly the source of ignition for major wildfires. To reduce the likelihood of such ignitions in high risk situations, utilities use preemptive de‐energization of power lines, commonly referred to as Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS). Besides raising challenging trade‐offs between power outages and wildfire safety, PSPS removes redundancy from the network at a time when component faults are likely to happen. This may leave the network particularly vulnerable to unexpected line faults that may occur while the PSPS is in place. Previous works have not explicitly considered the impacts of these outages. To address this gap, the Security Constrained Optimal Power Shutoff problem is proposed which uses post‐contingency security constraints to model the impact of unexpected line faults when planning a PSPS. This model enables, for the first time, the exploration of a wide range of trade‐offs between both wildfire risk and pre‐ and post‐contingency load shedding when designing PSPS plans, providing useful insights for utilities and policy makers considering different approaches to PSPS. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated using the EPRI 39‐bus system as a case study. The results highlight the potential risks of not considering security constraints when planning PSPS and show that incorporating security constraints into the PSPS design process improves the resilience of current PSPS plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamic Transmission Line Switching Amid Wildfire-Prone Weather Under Decision-Dependent Uncertainty

During dry and windy seasons, environmental conditions significantly increase the risk of wildfires, exposing power grids to disruptions caused by transmission line failures. Wildfire propagation exacerbates grid vulnerability, potentially leading to prolonged power outages. To address this challenge, we propose a multistage optimization model that dynamically adjusts transmission grid topology in response to wildfire propagation, aiming to develop an optimal response policy. By accounting for decision-dependent uncertainty, where line survival probabilities depend on usage, we employ distributionally robust optimization to model uncertainty in line survival distributions. We adapt the stochastic nested decomposition algorithm and derive a deterministic upper bound for its finite convergence. To enhance computational efficiency, we exploit the Lagrangian dual problem structure for a faster generation of Lagrangian cuts. Using realistic data from the California transmission grid, we demonstrate the superior performance of dynamic response policies against two-stage alternatives through a comprehensive case study. In addition, after solving the multistage formulation, we construct easy-to-implement policies that significantly reduce computational burden while maintaining good performance in real-time deployment. History: Accepted by Russell Bent, Area Editor for Network Optimization: Algorithms and Applications. Funding: This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Electricity [Grant DE-AC02-05CH11231]. The work of R. Jiang was supported in part by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems [Grant ECCS-1845980] and the U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research [Grant FA9550-23-1-0323]. Supplemental Material: The software that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2025.1210 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2025.1210 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Estrada-Garcia, Juan-Alberto↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecosystem leaf area, gross primary production, and evapotranspiration responses to wildfire in the Columbia River basin

Wildfires impact vegetation mortality and productivity and are increasing in intensity, frequency, and spatial area in the western United States. The rates of vegetation recovery after fires play a major role in the reestablishment of biomass and ecosystem functioning (e.g., structure, resilience, and productivity), but such recovery rates are poorly understood. Here we use remotely sensed data products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify the resistance and resilience of leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), and evapotranspiration (ET) to 138 wildfires of various burn severity across the Columbia River basin (CRB) of the Pacific Northwest in 2015. Increasing burn severity caused lower resistance and resilience for all three variables. Resistance and resilience are highest in grasslands, intermediate in savanna, and lowest in needleleaf evergreen forests, consistent with the adaptation of these vegetation types to fire. LAI has consistently lower resistance and resilience than GPP and ET, which is consistent with physical and physiological mechanisms that compensate for reduced LAI. Resilience is influenced by precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and burn severity across all three vegetation types; however, burn severity plays a more minor role in grasslands. Increasing wildfire severity will reduce the resistance and resilience and lengthen the recovery time of vegetation structure and fluxes with climate change, with significant consequences for the provision of ecosystem functioning and implications for model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

ELM2.1-XGBfire1.0: improving wildfire prediction by integrating a machine learning fire model in a land surface model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth system models (ESMs). Alternatively, fire models based on machine learning (ML), which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0) that integrates an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran–C–Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001–2019, the ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. The ELM2.1-XGBFire1.0 has proven to be a new tool for studying vegetation–fire interactions and, more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate–fire feedback, working as an active component of E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Response of soil nutrient pools and microbiomes to recurrent wildfire disturbance and varying burn severities in a mixed conifer forest

Wildfire is a pervasive disturbance in mixed-conifer forests, yet the relative influence of fire recurrence versus burn severity on soil biogeochemistry and microbial communities remains poorly quantified. We examined a natural gradient of fire history (0–3 prior fires) and burn severity (low–high) spanning 50 yr in a mixed-conifer ecosystem to assess how repeated fire shapes soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) pools, their isotopic signatures, mineral and particulate fractions, microbial community composition, carbon-use, CO₂ fluxes, and vegetation cover. Successive fires produced progressively higher bare-ground percentages and lower tree cover, which were tightly linked to declines in microbial diversity and reductions bulk %C, and %N. δ 13 C increased with fire frequency, indicating preferential loss of labile C through combustion or enhanced microbial oxidation, thereby explaining the observed net soil-C decline. Conversely, δ 15 N decreased and pH increased as tree density declined, reflecting altered N cycling and reduced acidification in post-fire soils. Fire recurrence, more than severity, corresponded with a marked shift in the bacterial community: for example, Xanthobacteraceae—key N-fixers and C-cyclers—diminished, while N-fixing Bacillaceae increased, underscoring the tightly coupled nature of soil nutrient dynamics and microbiome composition after repeated burns. Our results demonstrate that fire recurrence appears to be a stronger driver of post-fire soil ecosystem responses in this mixed-conifer forest, influencing both abiotic nutrient pools and the functional potential of the soil microbiome. These findings provide a more enhanced assessment and understanding to date of the biogeochemical consequences of repeated wildfire disturbance that can be used to inform management strategies aimed at preserving soil health in fire-prone landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dominance of Particulate Mercury in Stream Transport and Rapid Watershed Recovery from Wildfires in Northern California, USA

Frequency and intensity of wildfires are expected to increase due to climate change, especially in areas with a long summer drought. Forests are a major sink for the global pollutant mercury (Hg), and fluvial transport of Hg from recently burned watersheds has not been widely investigated. Here, we examined two years of fluvial transport of Hg and its speciation (total Hg, methyl-Hg, particulate, and dissolved forms) under storm events and baseflow in two recently burned watersheds with different burned proportions and one nonburned reference watershed in the Coastal Ranges of northern California. We examined postfire storm-event transport of Hg and its methylated form (methyl-Hg), addressed the importance of the “initial runoff pulse” to postfire Hg fluvial transport and its predominant association with suspended solids, and elucidated potential sources of Hg exports from the burned landscapes using geochemical indicators, which suggested that ash materials were likely the significant sources of particulates in the first high-flow season postfire but not subsequently. The maximum total suspended solid and total Hg levels in the “first pulse” at the severely burned watershed were 442 and 46 times higher, respectively, than those at the reference watershed. Stream suspended solid and Hg levels declined substantially in the burned watersheds after just a few months of rainfall likely due to the rapid regrowth of vegetation commonly observed in postfire landscapes, implying that the wildfire effects on immediate Hg inputs from the burned landscape are at most transient in nature.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Western Interconnect Transmission Line Wildfire Risk

The datasets contain wildfire risk probabilities for transmission lines in the Western Interconnect, identified only by the HIFLD dataset identifier. The dataset is generated using PNNL's WREST Tool (https://www.pnnl.gov/projects/wildfire-risk-resilience/tools/wrest). The input dataset includes HIFLD datasets on transmission lines and wildfire burn potentials and flame lengths from the PNNL RADR-FIRE Tool for 2025.

psps↗
DOE OSTI2024

Five Year Wildfire Risk Reduction Action Plan for the Electric Power Industry

The U.S. DOE and the Electric Power Research Institute convened a wildfire advisory group to bring together knowledge of ignition risks, electric utility needs, the applicability of available technology, and existing technology gaps. The outcome is a five-year action plan, containing recommendations on RD&D projects, that if completed by the year 2030, may accelerate the power industry’s ability to substantially reduce wildfire ignition risks. When reviewing this document please consider it is a snapshot in time for the years 2023 and 2024, could be obsolete by the end of the decade. The following list comprises the titles and topics for the proposed follow-on demonstrations: 1. Hybrid Undergrounding RD&D, 2. Live Downed Conductor Detection RD&D, 3. Fault Energy Reduction RD&D, 4. Advanced Inspection and Response Drone, 5. Fault and PQ Event Signature Repository, 6. Advanced and Intelligent Sensor Nodes, 7. Fire Friendly Asset Coatings and Coverings, and 8. Environmental Monitoring Action Plan.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy storage planning for enhanced resilience of power systems against wildfires and heatwaves

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to power grid stability due to their severe consequences and potential for widespread failures. Energy storage systems hold great potential for enhancing grid resilience against such events by providing reliable power during peak demand periods. However, accurately quantifying the size, location, and investment costs of new energy storage assets is a complex task, as energy storage planning decisions depend on the investment choices of other generation technologies and the integration of new transmission projects. Here, this paper presents a novel capacity expansion planning framework that simultaneously optimizes investments in energy storage, generation, and transmission, determining their optimal size, location, and type, while incorporating extreme weather events into long-term planning. More specifically, our stress-event-informed planning framework integrates the impact of heatwaves and wildfires into the planning process, identifying least-cost investment solutions that comply with policy goals and enhance grid resilience. The proposed framework employs machine-learning-based modeling to project heatwave-induced loads and performance-based risk assessment to evaluate wildfire-driven transmission line derates. Using industry-standard datasets to accurately represent the transmission topology of the Western Interconnection (WI) system, the proposed framework is applied to the WI 40-zone system, with investment decisions reported for the years 2030, 2035, and 2040. Simulation results reveal that with just a 10% increase in investment costs, resilience against extreme events can be significantly improved, with investment decisions heavily favoring energy storage, particularly 4-hour energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aircraft Measurements from a U.S. Western Wildfire Demonstrating Day and Night Differences in the Chemical Composition and Optical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols and Their Atmospheric Evolution

The composition and transformations of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) have been measured onboard the NOAA Twin Otter research aircraft during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field study. Here, we analyze real-time aerosol mass spectrometry measurements across three flights during the afternoon, late afternoon, and night of August 28, 2019, for one midsized wildfire. Analysis of several metrics showed that the aerosol composition and optical properties varied depending on the burning conditions at the fire zone and the time of day the BBA was emitted, with substantial variations in the available sunlight. The total aerosol mass loadings were dominated by organic components with a much smaller contribution from inorganic species. A gradual buildup of organic material was observed during the afternoon as the plume aged, indicating the condensation of photochemically formed low-volatility oxidized organic compounds. Highly hygroscopic ammonium nitrate was the main inorganic component, suggesting potential water content in BBA particles and the likelihood of their aqueous-phase reactivity. Depletions of particle-phase NO 3 – and Cl – relative to carbon monoxide were observed in the late afternoon and nighttime plumes, respectively, aligning with known gas-particle partitioning thermodynamics and the heterogeneous chemistry of dissolved nitrate and chloride. The wavelength-dependent light absorption by aerosol species was higher for the plume sampled at night and showed no significant changes with plume age, despite observed trends in composition and mass downwind. These differences in particle composition and optical properties demonstrate that the processes involved in BBA aging are not uniform for the same wildfire over the course of the day and depend highly on when the BBA was emitted, as well as the burning phase at the emissions source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced light absorption for solid-state brown carbon from wildfires due to organic and water coatings

Abstract Wildfires emit solid-state strongly absorptive brown carbon (solid S-BrC, commonly known as tar ball), critical to Earth’s radiation budget and climate, but their highly variable light absorption properties are typically not accounted for in climate models. Here, we show that from a Pacific Northwest wildfire, over 90% of particles are solid S-BrC with a mean refractive index of 1.49 + 0.056 i at 550 nm. Model sensitivity studies show refractive index variation can cause a ~200% difference in regional absorption aerosol optical depth. We show that ~50% of solid S-BrC particles from this sample uptake water above 97% relative humidity. We hypothesize these results from a hygroscopic organic coating, potentially facilitating solid S-BrC as nuclei for cloud droplets. This water uptake doubles absorption at 550 nm and the organic coating on solid S-BrC can lead to even higher absorption enhancements than water. Incorporating solid S-BrC and water interactions should improve Earth’s radiation budget predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗