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50 records · Page 3

Electrochemically induced fracture in LLZO: How the interplay between flaw density and electrostatic potential affects operability

Fracture and short circuit in the Li 7 La 3 Zr 2 O 12 (LLZO) solid electrolyte are two key issues that prevent its adoption in battery cells. In this paper, we utilize phase-field simulations that couple electrochemistry and fracture to evaluate the maximum electric potential that LLZO electrolytes can support as a function of crack density. In the case of a single crack, we find that the applied potential at the onset of crack propagation exhibits inverse square root scaling with respect to crack length, analogous to classical fracture mechanics. Here, we further find that the short-circuit potential scales linearly with crack length. In the realistic case where the solid electrolyte contains multiple cracks, we reveal that failure fits the Weibull model. The failure distributions shift to favor failure at lower overpotentials as areal crack density increases. Furthermore, when flawless interfacial buffers are placed between the applied potential and the bulk of the electrolyte, failure is mitigated. When constant currents are applied, current focuses in near-surface flaws, leading to crack propagation and short circuit. We find that buffered samples sustain larger currents without reaching unstable overpotentials and without failing. Our findings suggest several mitigation strategies for improving the ability of LLZO to support larger currents and improve operability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A software package for modeling and simulating fault graphs

This report describes a novel fault graph modeling language and a simulation tool for executing models specified in the language. The modeling language has three primary features that distinguish it from similar reliability analysis tools. These are (1) a random variable modeling several distinct outcomes of a single fault; (2) chains of faults in which one fault triggers another; and (3) time to fail sampled from probability distributions including positive normal, exponential, Weibull with a minimum, or immediate. These features are motivated by their use in a historical analysis of centrifuge reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fault Graph (fg)

This software package offers a novel fault graph modeling language and a simulation tool for executing models specified in the language. The modeling language has three primary features that distinguish it from similar reliability analysis tools. These are (1) a random variable modeling several distinct outcomes of a single fault; (2) chains of faults in which one fault triggers another; and (3) time to fail sampled from probability distributions including positive normal, exponential, Weibull with a minimum, or immediate.

Nutaro, James↗

Strength distributions of laminated FeNi-based metal amorphous nanocomposite ribbons

Metal Amorphous Nanocomposite (MANC) materials offer low losses at high magnetic switching frequency, enabling high power density motors with increased rotational speed. While MANCs have high strength, they are brittle. The use of motor components such as a rotor consisting of brittle material presents a reliability concern. Here, a promising MANC alloy is subjected to tensile tests and failure is observed with high-speed photography. A method is developed to prepare tensile specimens of laminated MANC and epoxy layers, simulating the stacking of an epoxy-impregnated tape-wound core. Tensile tests are conducted for single layer ribbon and for five- and ten-layer stacks of laminated material with thin layers of thermosetting epoxy. Failure distributions are shown to have increasing Weibull modulus with increasing layer count. The composite MANC material system is modeled using chain-of-bundles models. Using a k-failure model, we show that single ribbon strength distribution data can be used to predict well the failure distribution of laminated stacks. The agreement occurs when the assumed ineffective length, over which load is recovered in a failed layer, is comparable to the observed interlaminar separation length.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Thermo-Mechanical Modeling and Evaluation of the Cracking Response of Additively Manufactured Monolithic SiC Lattice Structures Subjected to Laser Heating

Increasing operating temperatures of solar receivers is paramount to the efficiency of concentrated solar thermal (CST) and solar power (CSP) systems. Owing to its high temperature stability combined with excellent thermal and optical properties, SiC has been the material of choice for application in high-temperature solar receivers. The state-of-the-art SiC volumetric concentrating solar air receivers such as honeycomb design have been demonstrated in field tests to achieve exit air temperatures approaching 800oC. However, successful application of CST systems for decarbonization requires significant increase in temperature capability of SiC receiver technology. Supported by an award from the Solar Technology Office (SETO), US Department of Energy (DOE), GE Research in collaboration with Heliogen Holdings Inc, is engaged in the development of ultra-High Operating Temperature SiC-matrix Solar Thermal Air Receiver (HOTSSTAR) enabled by additive manufacturing. The program objective is to design and to demonstrate a techno-economically viable SiC air receiver technology to achieve exit air temperature of 1100oC for CST applications. This report summarizes the learnings of a computational study on additively manufactured SiC lattice structures subjected to laser heating. The results from this study aim to help guide the design of a SiC receiver through a better understanding of lattice structure geometric parameters and their implications on the cracking response of the structure. In the study, a heat flux was applied to the surface of a 2”-diameter cylindrical lattice structure to simulate a 4kW CO2 laser. The resulting temperature distribution was applied to a structural model to approximate the stress distribution within the lattice structure and a Weibull analysis was performed to gain insight into the probability of failure and to evaluate the cracking response of the structure. With this approach, the influence of lattice density on temperature, stress, and probability of failure was explored for two different lattice beam spacings. A discussion on modeling assumptions, a comparison with experimental results, and an evaluation of the lattice cracking response is provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Strong temporal variation in treefall and branchfall rates in a tropical forest is related to extreme rainfall: results from 5 years of monthly drone data for a 50 ha plot

Abstract. A mechanistic understanding of how tropical-tree mortality responds to climate variation is urgently needed to predict how tropical-forest carbon pools will respond to anthropogenic global change, which is altering the frequency and intensity of storms, droughts, and other climate extremes in tropical forests. We used 5 years of approximately monthly drone-acquired RGB (red–green–blue) imagery for 50 ha of mature tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, to quantify spatial structure; temporal variation; and climate correlates of canopy disturbances, i.e., sudden and major drops in canopy height due to treefalls, branchfalls, or the collapse of standing dead trees. Canopy disturbance rates varied strongly over time and were higher in the wet season, even though wind speeds were lower in the wet season. The strongest correlate of monthly variation in canopy disturbance rates was the frequency of extreme rainfall events. The size distribution of canopy disturbances was best fit by a Weibull function and was close to a power function for sizes above 25 m2. Treefalls accounted for 74 % of the total area and 52 % of the total number of canopy disturbances in treefalls and branchfalls combined. We hypothesize that extremely high rainfall is a good predictor because it is an indicator of storms having high wind speeds, as well as saturated soils that increase uprooting risk. These results demonstrate the utility of repeat drone-acquired data for quantifying forest canopy disturbance rates at fine temporal and spatial resolutions over large areas, thereby enabling robust tests of how temporal variation in disturbance relates to climate drivers. Further insights could be gained by integrating these canopy observations with high-frequency measurements of wind speed and soil moisture in mechanistic models to better evaluate proximate drivers and with focal tree observations to quantify the links to tree mortality and woody turnover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Additive manufacturing of mullite ceramic by digital light processing

Mullite material was successfully additively manufactured using digital light processing (DLP). The printed geometry involves a one-step process of pyrolysis, de-binding, and sintering under a plain atmosphere to achieve an average of 76 % ceramic yield and linear shrinkage of 12 %. Furthermore, the thermal profile was carefully controlled to obtain consistent phases in which the XRD shows a mullite phase. Here, in addition, the Weibull analysis was conducted on the sintered flexural specimens, showing a Weibull modulus (m) of 13.05 with a characteristic strength (σ 0 ) of 94.96 MPa. Synchrotron microtomography was performed on the sintered specimens, which showed two distinct porosity distributions (small and large). Large porosity (non-spherical elongated) is the primary cause of decreased material strength, while small porosity (spherical) is the sintering product. The measured thermal conductivity of the specimens was in the range of 2.7–3.1 W/m∙k and decreased with an increase in temperature. Lastly, large-scale prototypes were printed concurrently with a fine resolution of 25 μm without any compromise on the predetermined design and structure.

Additive manufacturing↗

Federated Learning for Efficient Condition Monitoring and Anomaly Detection in Industrial Cyber-Physical Systems

Detecting and localizing anomalies in cyber-physical systems (CPS) has become increasingly challenging as systems grow in complexity, particularly due to varying sensor reliability and node failures in distributed environments. While federated learning (FL) offers a foundation for distributed model training, existing approaches lack mechanisms to handle these CPS-specific challenges. This paper presents an enhanced FL framework that introduces three key innovations: adaptive model aggregation based on sensor reliability, dynamic node selection for resource optimization, and Weibull-based checkpointing for fault tolerance. Our framework enables reliable condition monitoring while addressing the computational and reliability challenges of industrial CPS deployments. Experiments on NASA Bearing and Hydraulic System Datasets demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art FL methods, achieving 99.5% AUC-ROC in anomaly detection and maintaining accuracy under node failures. Statistical validation using Mann-Whitney (U) test confirms significant improvements (p < 0.05) in both detection accuracy and computational efficiency across diverse operational scenarios.1

Marfo, William [University of Texas at El Paso,Dep↗

A probabilistic-phase field model for the fracture of brittle materials

Abstract We develop a computational method to determine the failure probability of brittle materials under general mechanical loading conditions. The method is a combination of two parts: (1) numerical simulations of materials with multiple cracks using phase field theory, where the complete fracture process is viewed as ‘damage percolation’ along critical paths or clusters of cracks, rather than the traditional weak-link failure mechanism of Weibull, and (2) an extension of the Batdorf statistical theory of fracture to finite domains, where it is implemented within the finite element framework. The results of phase-field simulations at the ‘percolation threshold’ are used as failure data in the Batdorf theory to determine the overall probability of failure. The input to this approach is the size distribution of cracks in a pristine material. An example is shown, where alumina samples that were previously tested by Abe and coworkers (Abeet al2003J. Am. Ceram. Soc.861019–21) in four-point loading are compared to the results of our numerical simulations. The approach developed here has the advantage of being extendable to more complex thermomechanical loading.

Materials Science↗

Understanding the effect of specimen size on the properties of fine-grain isotropic nuclear graphite for irradiation studies: Mechanical properties

Programs at Oak Ridge National Laboratory are investigating the effects of neutron irradiation in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) on properties of fine-grain isotropic nuclear graphites. Specimens were irradiated in the HFIR flux trap, which requires using specimens that are smaller than the sizes recommended by ASTM standards. Here, this work has investigated whether subsized specimens can be used to reliably predict strength behavior. The results show that (1) tensile strength was loosely coupled to specimen volume, (2) the compression specimens had a slightly higher strength for larger volumes, (3) the uniaxial flexural strength was nearly independent of specimen effective area for one orientation whereas the other orientation showed a slight strength–size scaling Weibull behavior, and (4) equibiaxial flexural strength followed traditional strength–size scaling Weibull behavior. These results suggest that fine-grain graphite is more similar to ceramics than to medium- and large-grained graphite with respect to both the strength-limiting flaws (Griffith theory) and the effect of machining on the strength behavior. This work shows that using specimens that are smaller than ASTM recommendations are suitable for investigating the strength changes caused by neutron irradiation because the primary interest is the relative change in the strength distribution parameters rather than their absolute values.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanistic modeling of lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composite claddings

Silicon carbide (SiC) fiber-reinforced SiC matrix (SiC/SiC) composites have emerged as a new material candidate for fuel claddings in light water reactors. Recent studies showed that the load capacity of SiC/SiC materials exhibits a considerable statistical variation. Therefore, reliability analysis plays a critical role in design of SiC/SiC composite claddings. Here, this paper presents a probabilistic model for the lifetime distribution of SiC/SiC composites. The model is anchored by a multiaxial stress-based failure criterion and subcritical damage accumulation mechanism. Based on the kinetics of subcritical damage growth, the lifetime distribution of a laboratory test specimen for any given loading history can be calculated. A finite weakest-link model is used to extrapolate the lifetime distribution of test specimens to full-length claddings. It is shown that the damage accumulation mechanism has a strong influence on the lifetime distribution of the cladding. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the static fatigue behavior of SiC/SiC composites. The present analysis also demonstrates an intricate length effect on the failure probability of the cladding, which is expected to play a crucial role in design extrapolation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ASME Design Code Rule Changes for Nuclear Graphite

The American Society of Mechanical Engineers Boiler Pressure and Vessel Code (ASME BPVC) Section III, Division 5, Article HHA-3000 outlines graphite core component and graphite core assembly design guidelines. Graphite core components are defined as ?components manufactured from graphite that are installed to form a graphite core assembly within the reactor pressure vessel of a high temperature, graphite moderated fission reactor.? (p. 413) Graphites? inherent defect distributions do not allow for deterministic material reliability. Rather, graphite has variable strength distributions which change by grade. Article HHA-3000 outlines two semi-probabilistic methods, the full and simplified assessments, which set design load limit targets for each of three component structural reliability classes. The Design Task Group was officially recognized as a specialized task group within ASME November of 2023, though we?ve been collaborating since 2022. The purpose of the Design Task Group is to correct, clarify, and make HHA-3000 function as intended. The Design Task Group will sunset once we?ve achieved our objectives. The Design Task Group was specifically told to not write new Code. While there may be more precise and more accurate methods to determine reliability targets, the current methods are conservative, relatively simple to implement, and have thus far been considered satisfactory for setting design reliability targets. Much of the ground-work to write proposal files and background documents for records to make the changes needed to achieve our objective have been completed. The Design Task Group has documented much of their work through papers, presentations, and memorandums. Three memorandums in which INL team members had substantial contributions are found in the Appendices: FEA Modeling for the Baseline Program, Evaluating the Effects on Margin of Updating the Threshold and Shape Parameters in the Full Assessment, and Interpretations of the Full and Simplified Assessments in ASME BPVC. Most of the on-going work to achieve the Design Task Group?s objective will be addressing comments on existing records and moving records through the balloting process. The Design Task Group met bi-weekly mostly through the end of FY2023. Since February 2024, the Design Task Group has mostly been completed with solving and documenting the technical issues associated with the assessments. Unless new tasks are identified, the remaining work of the Design Task Group will be political and editorial.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗