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Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.
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The presentation is divided into two major components. First, I will give an overview of space weather phenomenon and their associated impacts. Then I will describe the comprehensive list of products and tools that NASA Space Weather Center has developed by leveraging more than a decade long modeling experience enabled by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and latest scientific research results from the broad science community. In addition, a summary of the space weather activities we have been engaged in and our operational experience will be provided.
Our hypothesis is that the higher-albedo rocks on the surface of Bennu are products of thermal/mechanical weathering. If this suggestion is correct, then the higher albedo (~7–15%) of some rocks relative to the average background on Bennu (~4.5%) could be explained by their relatively fresh surfaces. Older rocks on Bennu would then be the darkest rocks— those that have experienced the most space weathering over time due to exposure to the space environment. Thermal/mechanical weathering (cracking of rocks) is a candidate mechanism for the particle ejection events observed to occur with regular frequency from the asteroid surface.
Relation of solar activity to earth weather - correlation of satellite data and weather observations
Samples from the Genesis Solar Wind Sample Return (NASA Discovery 5) are a unique opportunity to study the initial stages of space weathering, i.e., the physical and chemical effects of solar-wind irradiation. Arrays of collectors containing multiple materials were each exposed to a different solar-wind regime (fast, slow, bulk, or coronal mass ejection) at the L1 point for long durations (years). Materials exposed to the solar wind included metals, semiconductors, and insulators. Although the time of exposure was obviously short relative to samples having extraterrestrial origins, optical properties, surface chemical properties, and matrix structure have changed in many collectors due to exposure to solar wind. The thickness of amorphous zones, where present, appears to correspond with the depth of the peak of the solar-wind H distribution in each regime. Damage from high-energy particles was negligible because the collectors were 700 μm or less in thickness and shielded from the back by the spacecraft. Micrometeorite impacts and sputtering were also negligible because of the short exposure times. Our current results are preliminary: We hope future workers will extend this study both to support Genesis characterization efforts and to further understand space-weathering processes on a geologic timescale.
The optical degradation of encapsulants from ultraviolet (UV) radiation has historically resulted in a significant loss in performance throughout the life of a photovoltaic (PV) module. International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) test methods have recently been developed to screen for PV encapsulants prone to loss in optical performance. The present study was performed to benchmark polymeric packaging materials relative to IEC 62788-1-4 (covering the measurement of optical transmittance) and IEC 62788-1-7 (on the durability of transmittance), provide feedback toward improvement of the methods, and develop insight regarding optical degradation. Contemporary materials were examined, including poly(ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA), thermoplastic polyolefin (TPO), polyolefin elastomer (POE), and polyvinyl butyral (PVB) encapsulants; a poly(ethene-co-tetrafluoroethene)/poly(ethylene terephthalate) (ETFE/PET) transparent backsheet; and a polystyrene (PS) working reference material. The use of silica-, specialty-, and rolled-glass was also compared in laminated coupons. Specimen size was separately examined from 2.5 to 12.5 cm. Weathering was performed with a xenon source, using IEC TS 62788-7-2 methods A2, A3, A4, and A5 (chamber temperature of 55 degrees C, 65 degrees C, 75 degrees C, or 85 degrees C), respectively. Characterizations were made using a UV-visible-near-infrared (UV-VIS-NIR) spectrophotometer (transmittance and reflectance, with and without an integrating sphere), a UV-VIS fluorescence spectrophotometer, a camera, and an optical microscope. Performance was analyzed, including solar weighted transmittance, yellowness index, UV cut-off wavelength, and haze (scattering). Separate Arrhenius analyses were performed to assess retention of transmittance and changes in yellowness index. The activation energy for both characteristics was found to range from 15-80 kJ mol-1, with an average of 48 kJ mol-1, similar to the average of 45 kJ mol-1 identified in the previous international PV Quality Assurance Task Force (PVQAT) Task Group 5 (TG5) study of more traditional encapsulants. The separate degradation modes of discoloration and scattering were distinguished in the encapsulants using a comprehensive spectral characterization. Based on these results, the IEC 62788-1-7 pass/fail criteria of 5% change in transmittance was confirmed to identify a known bad encapsulant.
Mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are generally considered more accurate than reanalysis products in characterizing the wind resource at heights of interest for wind energy, given their finer spatial resolution and more comprehensive physics. However, advancements in the latest ERA-5 reanalysis product motivate an assessment on whether ERA-5 can model wind speeds as well as a state-of-the-art NWP model – the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. We consider this research question for both simple terrain and offshore applications. Specifically, we compare wind profiles from ERA-5 and the preliminary WRF runs of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED) to those observed by lidars at a site in Oklahoma, United States, and in a United States Atlantic offshore wind energy area. We find that ERA-5 shows a significant negative bias (~-1ms-1) at both locations, with a larger bias at the land-based site. WTK-LED-predicted wind speed profiles show a limited negative bias (~-0.5ms-1) offshore and a slight positive bias (~+0.5ms-1) at the land-based site. On the other hand, we find that ERA-5 outperforms WTK-LED in terms of the centered root-mean-square error (cRMSE) and correlation coefficient, for both the land-based and offshore cases, in all atmospheric stability conditions. We find that WTK-LED's higher cRMSE is caused by its tendency to overpredict the amplitude of the wind speed diurnal cycle. At the land-based site, this is partially caused by wind plant wake effects not being accurately captured by WTK-LED.
Weathering, diagenesis, and chemical alteration of a soil profile from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica are investigated as an analog to soil development within the Martian regolith. Soil samples from a soil pit one meter deep on Prospect Mesa, Wright Valley, are examined for their major element concentrations, water-soluble cations and anions, carbon, sulfur, and water concentrations, and related petrographic characteristics of weathering in a cold, dry environment. A petrographic study of the samples suggests that most silicate mineral and lithic fragments exhibit some degree of alteration. Chemical alteration occurs both in samples above and within the permanently frozen zone. The concentrations of water-soluble cations, for example, Na(+), K(+), Ca(2+), and anions, Cl(-), SO4(2-), NO3(-), are found to decrease significantly from the surface to the permanently frozen zone, suggesting a major movement of water-soluble species. It is also found that enrichments in secondary mineral abundances correlate with the water soluble ion concentrations. The formation of zeolites is seen throughout the soil column; these, it is thought, may be reservoirs for volatile storage within the regolith.
Martian soil subjected to chemical weathering processes could contain the following likely constituents: (1) fresh primary silicate material; (2) partially altered primary silicates; (3) secondary minerals, possibly including clay minerals, evaporites, carbonates, sulfates, hydrates, and zeolites; and (4) altered volcanic glass or impact glass. The soil may also include palogonite and other alteration products and secondary minerals. It is unlikely therefore that an equilibrium assemblage of minerals would be present. From the detailed study of the soils from the Dry Valleys of Antarctica, it is obvious that the complex processes in operation produce major changes in the parent materials, depending upon where the constituents reside and the degree to which weathering and diagenesis operates. It is clear that natural near surface environments, even in very cold and dry regions, may produce extremely complex soils. Extreme caution must be taken when interpreting the results and drawing conclusions, especially about possible processes operating in regoliths in cold, arid environments similar to those of the Dry Valleys or Mars.
This document is the final report of the work of the Office of the Lead Scientist (OLS) of the U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and for Coordination of the World Weather Research Program (WWRP). The proposal was for a continuation of the duties and responsibilities described in the proposal of 7 October, 1993 to NSF and NOAA associated with the USWRP Lead Scientist then referred to as the Chief Scientist. The activities of the Office of the Lead Scientist (OLS) ended on January 31, 2005 and this report describes the activities undertaken by the OLS from February 1, 2004 until January 3 1, 2005. The OLS activities were under the cosponsorship of the agencies that are members of the Interagency Working Group (IWG) of the US WRP currently: NOAA, NSF, NASA, and DOD. The scope of the work described includes activities that were necessary to develop, facilitate and implement the research objectives of the USWRP consistent with the overall program goals and specific agency objectives. It included liaison with and promotion of WMO/WWW activities that were consistent with and beneficial to the USWRP programs and objectives. Funds covered several broad categories of activity including meetings convened by the Lead Scientist, OLS travel, partial salary and benefits support, publications, hard-copy dissemination of reports and program announcements and the development and maintenance of the USWRP website. In addition to funding covered by this grant, NCAR program funds provided co-sponsorship of half the salary and benefits resources of the USWRP Lead Scientist (.25 FTE) and the WWRP Chairman/Liaison (.167 FTE). Also covered by the grant were partial salaries for the Science Coordinator for the hurricane portion of the program and partial salary for a THORPEX coordinator.
Understanding the composition of Mercury's crust is key to comprehending the formation of the planet. The regolith, derived from the crustal bedrock, has been altered via a set of space weathering processes. These processes are the same set of mechanisms that work to form Mercury's exosphere, and are moderated by the local space environment and the presence of an intrinsic planetary magnetic field. The alterations need to be understood in order to determine the initial crustal compositions. The complex interrelationships between Mercury's exospheric processes, the space environment, and surface composition are examined and reviewed. The processes are examined in the context of our understanding of these same processes on the lunar and asteroid regoliths. Keywords: Mercury (planet) Space weathering Surface processes Exosphere Surface composition Space environment 3
The White Paper (WP) describes a roadmap to address the Space Weather (SpWx) problem. It presents a strategic vision of how a community-wide effort could be organized and implemented to enable transformative advancement in SpWx research and ultimately, in applications. We envision a ‘system-of-systems’—an integrated web of SpWx stations and state-ofthe-art modeling facilities to enable a transformative advance in SpWx nowcasting and forecasting (Figure 1). The Space Weather Aggregated Network of Systems (SWANS) will enable space situational awareness for end-users invested in spaceflight operations, infrastructure risk mitigation, and future human endeavors in space exploration while profoundly transforming Heliophysics research.
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State of art review of all-weather landing techniques and instrumentation for advanced SST
The goal of this presentation is to help the Teachers in Space candidates understand Space Weather and its implications for flight.
Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms and evolves in the atmosphere through many pathways and processes, over diverse spatial and time scales. Hence, there is a need to represent these widely-varying kinetic processes in large-scale atmospheric models to allow for accurate predictions of the abundance, properties, and impacts of SOA. In this work, we integrated a kinetic, process-level model (simpleSOM-MOSAIC) into a weather-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to simulate the oxidation chemistry and microphysics of atmospheric SOA. simpleSOM-MOSAIC simulates multigenerational gas-phase chemistry, autoxidation reactions, heterogeneous oxidation, oligomerization, and phase-state-influenced gas/particle partitioning of SOA. As a case study, the integrated WRF-Chem-simpleSOM-MOSAIC (WC-SSM) model was used to simulate the photochemical evolution downwind of a large city (Manaus, Brazil) in the Amazon and, in turn, study the anthropogenic and biogenic interactions in an otherwise pristine environment. Consistent with previous work, we found that OA was enhanced by up to a factor of four in the urban plume due to elevated hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, relative to the background, and that this OA was dominated by SOA from biogenic precursors (80%). Further, in addition to accurately simulating the OA enhancement in the urban plume, the model reproduced the magnitude of the OA oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio and broadly tracked the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Our work highlights the importance of including an integrated, kinetic representation of SOA processes in an atmospheric model
Attention is given to the development history of the Central Weather Processor (CWP) program of the Federal Aviation Administration. The CWP will interface with high speed digital communications links, accept data and information products from new sources, generate data processing products, and provide meteorologists with the capability to automate data retrieval and dissemination. The CWP's users are operational (air traffic controllers, meteorologists and pilots), institutional (logistics, maintenance, testing and evaluation personnel), and administrative.