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At least 55 records · Page 3

Foreshock properties illuminate nucleation processes of slow and fast laboratory earthquakes

Understanding the connection between seismic activity and the earthquake nucleation process is a fundamental goal in earthquake seismology with important implications for earthquake early warning systems and forecasting. We use high-resolution acoustic emission (AE) waveform measurements from laboratory stick-slip experiments that span a spectrum of slow to fast slip rates to probe spatiotemporal properties of laboratory foreshocks and nucleation processes. We measure waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel-times (DTT) between AEs throughout the seismic cycle. AEs broadcasted prior to slow labquakes have small DTT and high waveform similarity relative to fast labquakes. We show that during slow stick-slip, the fault never fully locks, and waveform similarity and pairwise differential travel times do not evolve throughout the seismic cycle. In contrast, fast laboratory earthquakes are preceded by a rapid increase in waveform similarity late in the seismic cycle and a reduction in differential travel times, indicating that AEs begin to coalesce as the fault slip velocity increases leading up to failure. These observations point to key differences in the nucleation process of slow and fast labquakes and suggest that the spatiotemporal evolution of laboratory foreshocks is linked to fault slip velocity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Flash droughts present a new challenge for subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction

Flash droughts are a recently recognized type of extreme event distinguished by sudden onset and rapid intensification of drought conditions with severe impacts. They unfold on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales (weeks to months), presenting a new challenge for the surge of interest in improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. In this perspective we discuss existing prediction capability for flash droughts and what is needed to establish their predictability. We place them in the context of synoptic to centennial phenomena, consider how they could be incorporated into early warning systems and risk management, and propose two definitions. The growing awareness that flash droughts involve particular processes and severe impacts, and probably a climate change dimension, makes them a compelling frontier for research, monitoring and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Deep compressed seismic learning for fast location and moment tensor inferences with natural and induced seismicity

Fast detection and characterization of seismic sources is crucial for decision-making and warning systems that monitor natural and induced seismicity. However, besides the laying out of ever denser monitoring networks of seismic instruments, the incorporation of new sensor technologies such as Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) further challenges our processing capabilities to deliver short turnaround answers from seismic monitoring. In response, this work describes a methodology for the learning of the seismological parameters: location and moment tensor from compressed seismic records. In this method, data dimensionality is reduced by applying a general encoding protocol derived from the principles of compressive sensing. The data in compressed form is then fed directly to a convolutional neural network that outputs fast predictions of the seismic source parameters. Thus, the proposed methodology can not only expedite data transmission from the field to the processing center, but also remove the decompression overhead that would be required for the application of traditional processing methods. An autoencoder is also explored as an equivalent alternative to perform the same job. We observe that the CS-based compression requires only a fraction of the computing power, time, data and expertise required to design and train an autoencoder to perform the same task. Implementation of the CS-method with a continuous flow of data together with generalization of the principles to other applications such as classification are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The continuous readout stream of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber for detection of supernova burst neutrinos

The MicroBooNE continuous readout stream is a parallel readout of the MicroBooNE liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) which enables detection of non-beam events such as those from a supernova neutrino burst. The low energies of the supernova neutrinos and the intense cosmic-ray background flux due to the near-surface detector location makes triggering on these events very challenging. Instead, MicroBooNE relies on a delayed trigger generated by SNEWS (the Supernova Early Warning System) for detecting supernova neutrinos. The continuous readout of the LArTPC generates large data volumes, and requires the use of real-time compression algorithms (zero suppression and Huffman compression) implemented in an FPGA (field-programmable gate array) in the readout electronics. In this paper we present the results of the optimization of the data reduction algorithms, and their operational performance. To demonstrate the capability of the continuous stream to detect low-energy electrons, a sample of Michel electrons from stopping cosmic-ray muons is reconstructed and compared to a similar sample from the lossless triggered readout stream.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Population Aging and Heat Exposure in the 21st Century: Which U.S. Regions Are at Greatest Risk and Why?

Abstract Background and Objectives The co-occurring trends of population aging and climate change mean that rising numbers of U.S. older adults are at risk of intensifying heat exposure. We estimate county-level variations in older populations’ heat exposure in the early (1995–2014) and mid (2050) 21st century. We identify the extent to which rising exposures are attributable to climate change versus population aging. Research Design and Methods We estimate older adults’ heat exposure in 3,109 counties in the 48 contiguous U.S. states. Analyses use NASA NEX Global Daily Downscaled Product (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) climate data and county-level projections for the size and distribution of the U.S. age 69+ population. Results Population aging and rising temperatures are documented throughout the United States, with particular “hotspots” in the Deep South, Florida, and parts of the rural Midwest. Increases in heat exposure by 2050 will be especially steep in historically colder regions with large older populations in New England, the upper Midwest, and rural Mountain regions. Rising temperatures are driving exposure in historically colder regions, whereas population aging is driving exposure in historically warm southern regions. Discussion and Implications Interventions to address the impacts of temperature extremes on older adult well-being should consider the geographic distribution and drivers of this exposure. In historically cooler areas where climate change is driving exposures, investments in warning systems may be productive, whereas investments in health care and social services infrastructures are essential in historically hot regions where exposures are driven by population aging.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An Experimental Setup for Mechanical Vibration Analysis Using VLC

This study explores the potential applications across various domains, including earthquake detection and warning systems, where the system’s sensitivity to ground vibrations can contribute to early seismic event detection. Additionally, the study paves the way of developing applications of VLC/T in mechanical vibration and stability analysis of engines and platforms, offering insights into structural integrity and performance optimization. These multifaceted applications underscore the adaptability and potential of VLC/T systems in diverse fields, heralding advancements in sensing, communication, and security technologies. To achieve this, in this study, Peak to Average Power Ratio (PAPR) is proposed to represent the impact of mechanical shocks and vibrations generated by several weights dropped onto the platform with which the receiver is fixed. Even though non-contact measurement methodology is preferred for various reasons, the proposed measurement campaign obtains the data in contact form; however, the system and signal model proposed in this study could easily be extended into non-contact form. Considering the fact that the proposed measurement campaign employs off-the-shelf products, it is cost-effective and very scalable.

Yilmaz, Ahmet Mucahit↗

Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Multi-Variant Surveillance

Early detection of an emerging VOC (Variant-Of-Concern) is essential for effective preparedness for a disease like COVID-19. The spreading of an emerging VOC not only depends on the disease dynamics of itself but also depends on the state of the circulating variants and the susceptibility of the population. Resources for testing are typically quite limited, and a number of strategies have been considered for deploying them. However, it has been difficult to evaluate the performance of such strategies, especially higher order effects, and inequities, while incorporating constraints on these resources. Here, we develop an agent-based surveillance framework, Networkdetect, to understand the early warning system of an emerging VOC. Our framework allows us to incorporate various population heterogeneities and resource constraints.

Moon, Sifat [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000344968809)↗

Performance of New Near-Real-Time PERSIANN Product (PDIR-Now) for Atmospheric River Events over the Russian River Basin, California

Most heavy precipitation events and extreme flooding over the U.S. Pacific coast can be linked to prevalent atmospheric river (AR) conditions. Thus, reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for water management and early warning systems of flooding and landslides over these regions. At the same time, high-quality near-real-time measurements of AR precipitation remain challenging due to the complex topographic features of land surface and meteorological conditions of the region: specifically, orographic features occlude radar measurements while infrared-based algorithms face challenges, differentiating between both cold brightband (BB) precipitation and the warmer nonbrightband (NBB) precipitation. It should be noted that the latter precipitation is characterized by greater orographic enhancement. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a recently developed near-real-time satellite precipitation algorithm: Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate-Now (PDIR-Now). This model is primarily dependent on infrared information from geostationary satellites as input; consequently, PDIR-Now has the advantage of short data latency, 15–60-min delay between observation to precipitation product delivery. The performance of PDIR-Now is analyzed with a focus on AR-related events for cases dominated by NBB and BB precipitation over the Russian River basin. In our investigations, we utilize S-band (3-GHz) precipitation profilers with Joss/Parsivel disdrometer measurements at the Middletown and Santa Rosa stations to classify BB and NBB precipitation events. In general, our analysis shows that PDIR-Now is more skillful in retrieving precipitation rates over both BB and NBB events across the topologically complex study area as compared to PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (CCS). Also, we discuss the performance of well-known operational near-real-time precipitation products from 2017 to 2019. Conventional categorical and volumetric categorical indices, as well as continuous statistical metrics, are used to show the differences between various high-resolution precipitation products such as Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning of factors for improving oyster hatchery production

Oyster aquaculture and restoration in the Chesapeake Bay are vital, yet hatcheries frequently struggle with inconsistent larval growth and sudden mass mortality events. Unpredictable disruptions in larval production cause large economic losses, represent a perceived risk to growers, and impede industry expansion. To better understand associations between production yield and its potential predictors, we applied machine learning (random forest, and neural network) and statistical (generalized additive model) models to a comprehensive dataset of environmental, water quality, and operational parameters from a Maryland oyster hatchery, aiming to identify key yield predictors and develop a robust forecasting tool. We used recursive Boruta algorithm for variable selection, pinpointing critical predictors, and employed cross-validation to fine-tune model settings. Shapley value analysis offered crucial insights into model interpretations, highlighting week number, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, salinity, turbidity, and fecundity as primary drivers of yield variability. For low-yield cases, salinity-related variables were particularly important. Our findings provide an early warning system for potential production downturns, empowering hatchery operators to make data-driven decisions for optimizing water conditions, feeding schedules, and broodstock management. By boosting predictability and efficiency, this research directly supports economic stability of the oyster industry and ecological health of the Chesapeake Bay.

Vishwakarma, Srishti [Oak Ridge National Laborator↗

Daily evapotranspiration changes during heatwaves at 32 NEON sites, 2019-2021

This dataset provides partitioned evapotranspiration (ET, the combined loss of water from soil and plant surfaces) anomalies during heatwave events—soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T)—for 268 heatwave events across 32 National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites in the contiguous United States from 2019–2021. Using an ensemble of four high-frequency turbulence methods (Flux-variance Similarity, Conditional Eddy Covariance [CEC], CEC with Water-Use Efficiency, and Conditional Eddy Accumulation; see Zahn and Bou-Zeid 2024), half-hourly transpiration-to-evapotranspiration (T/ET) ratios were derived from 20 hertz (Hz, cycles per second) eddy covariance measurements of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and water vapor (H₂O) concentrations. The dataset spans six vegetation types including evergreen and deciduous forests, grasslands, cultivated crops, shrublands, and emergent herbaceous wetlands. Data Package Contents: The dataset includes a single CSV (comma-separated values) file containing daily anomalies (deviations from baseline conditions) for transpiration (Delta_T), evaporation (Delta_E), total evapotranspiration (Delta_ET), and T/ET ratio (Delta_T_ET) during each day of identified heatwave events. The file also includes site codes, dates, heatwave event identifiers, and day-of-heatwave indicators. The CSV file can be opened with spreadsheet software (Microsoft Excel, Google Sheets) or programming environments (Python, R, MATLAB). This resource enables researchers to investigate ecosystem-specific responses to thermal extremes, validate land surface model partitioning of ET fluxes, and examine feedbacks between water cycling and surface energy balance during heatwaves. The dataset is particularly valuable for studies linking vegetation hydraulic strategies to climate resilience, as it captures the divergent responses of shallow-rooted versus deep-rooted ecosystems. Potential applications include improving drought early warning systems, informing irrigation management strategies, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of land-atmosphere interactions under extreme heat conditions.

Day of Heatwave↗

Lightning strike prediction at the Savannah River Site

At the Savannah River Site, employees receive warnings about lightning only after three strikes have already occurred near the site. In order to increase employee safety, it is preferential to warn employees of a lightning threat much sooner. We used data from an on-site Electric Field Mill to measure values of the atmospheric electric charge. We also used lightning detection data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. By comparing the data of each, we can determine how long before or after a lightning strike did the Electric Field Mill first measure within our lightning detection threshold. If the detection threshold occurs before the strike does, this provides a lead time for knowing about lightning risks before they happen. Our findings conclude that 95% of lightning strikes have a lead time in the electric field where we can predict the lightning before it occurs and warn employees of the potential lightning threat. However, our lightning detection threshold can occur even without lightning or precipitation. Finding how these false lightning alarms affect our data is necessary to improving the lightning warning system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring the Early Lightning Notification of an Electric Field Mill at the Savannah River Site

At the Savannah River Site (SRS), employees receive automated broadcast notification about lightning only after three strikes have already occurred near the site boundary. To increase employee safety, it is preferential to give employees lead time before lightning strikes occur. We compared measurements from an on-site electric field mill to lightning detection data from the National Lightning Detection Network and the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. Using a difference threshold, we determined that the electric field mill provided a lead time greater than 6 minutes for 95% of lightning events from 2009-2020, with an average lead time of 56 minutes. Detection of events were limited to a 7-mile radius around the field mill. We also identified that the field mill threshold generated many false detections not clearly identified. False detections and detections from only precipitation can be reduced by using a second threshold without creating too many missed detections (Type II errors). The two thresholds used together provide the best information about rapidly changing electric fields and aid in advanced detection necessary to improve the lightning warning system used at SRS.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multiplexed Toxin Activity Detection

There is a need for field forward biothreat detection methods for highly lethal marine toxins, such as conotoxins, to protect the warfighter and civilians in contested environments. These toxins arise from harmful algal blooms which impact the warfighter, pets, and civilians. The need for detection platforms that can be fielded on drones or unmanned vehicles is paramount to successful biothreat detection to serve as an early warning system for those impacted in these environments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

East Tennessee Technology Park 2006 Illness and Injury Surveillance Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) commitment to assuring the health and safety of its workers includes the conduct of illness and injury surveillance activities that provide an early warning system to detect health problems among workers. The Illness and Injury Surveillance Program monitors illnesses and health conditions that result in an absence, occupational injuries and illnesses, and disabilities and deaths among current workers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Low-Power, Flexible Sensor Arrays with Solderless Board-to-Board Connectors for Monitoring Soil Deformation and Temperature

Landslides are a global and frequent natural hazard, affecting many communities and infrastructure networks. Technological solutions are needed for long-term, large-scale condition monitoring of infrastructure earthworks or natural slopes. However, current instruments for slope stability monitoring are often costly, require a complex installation process and/or data processing schemes, or have poor resolution. Wireless sensor networks comprising low-power, low-cost sensors have been shown to be a crucial part of landslide early warning systems. Here, we present the development of a novel sensing approach that uses linear arrays of three-axis accelerometers for monitoring changes in sensor inclination, and thus the surrounding soil’s deformation. By combining these deformation measurements with depth-resolved temperature measurements, we can link our data to subsurface thermal–hydrological regimes where relevant. In this research, we present a configuration of cascaded I2C sensors that (i) have ultra-low power consumption and (ii) enable an adjustable probe length. From an electromechanical perspective, we developed a novel board-to-board connection method that enables narrow, semi-flexible sensor arrays and a streamlined assembly process. The low-cost connection method relies on a specific FR4 printed circuit board design that allows board-to-board press fitting without using electromechanical components or solder connections. The sensor assembly is placed in a thin, semi-flexible tube (inner diameter 6.35 mm) that is filled with an epoxy compound. The resulting sensor probe is connected to an AA-battery-powered data logger with wireless connectivity. We characterize the system’s electromechanical properties and investigate the accuracy of deformation measurements. Our experiments, performed with probes up to 1.8 m long, demonstrate long-term connector stability, as well as probe mechanical flexibility. Furthermore, our accuracy analysis indicates that deformation measurements can be performed with a 0.390 mm resolution and a 95% confidence interval of ±0.73 mm per meter of probe length. This research shows the suitability of low-cost accelerometer arrays for distributed soil stability monitoring. In comparison with emerging low-cost measurements of surface displacement, our approach provides depth-resolved deformation, which can inform about shallow sliding surfaces.

deformation monitoring↗

Timing and Multi-Channel: Novel Method for Determining the Neutrino Mass Ordering from Supernovae

One of the few remaining unknowns in the standard three-flavor neutrino oscillation paradigm is the ordering of neutrino masses. In this work we propose a novel method for determining neutrino mass ordering using the time information on early supernova neutrino events. In a core-collapse supernova, neutrinos are produced earlier than antineutrinos and, depending on the mass ordering which affects the adiabatic flavor evolution, may cause earlier observable signals in $\nu_e$ detection channels than in others. Hence, the time differences are sensitive to the mass ordering. We find that using the time information on the detection of the first galactic supernova events at future detectors like DUNE, JUNO and Hyper-Kamiokande, the mass ordering can already be determined at 2$\sigma$ CL, while $\mathcal{O}(10)$ events suffice for the discovery. Our method does not require high-statistics and could be used within the supernova early warning system (SNEWS) which will have access to the time information on early supernova neutrino events recorded in a number of detectors. The method proposed in this paper also implies a crucial interplay between the mass ordering and the triangulation method for locating supernovae.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Inferring UAV Position Relative to Smartphone Sensor Based on Acoustic Characteristics

As commercial and non-commercial unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) improve technologically and increase in accessibility, their potential for use in actions antithetical to nuclear non-proliferation efforts increases as well. The ability to identify and locate UAVs using ubiquitous, inexpensive hardware and software would be advantageous as both a deterrent and an initial warning system. Our team looks to utilize smartphones as acoustic sensors to record and characterize UAV movement based on the sound produced while in flight. Multi-rotor UAVs produce identifiable acoustic spectral characteristics with frequencies and harmonics corresponding to motor revolutions per minute and the propeller characteristics. As the source moves closer to the receiver these spectral patterns remain relatively stable (at slow speeds), while the energy observed from the waves increases. The goal of this work is to utilize a small network of smartphone sensors with known, fixed positions to infer the relative position of an in-flight UAV with respect to the position of the smartphones through the variation in acoustic energy.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗