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The space shuttle/payload interface analysis is presented. The analysis consists of the following sections: (1) payload capture and cost analysis, (2) business risk and value of operations in space analysis, and (3) payload community analysis. The primary objective of the study was to furnish a method for tracing capture/cost analyses conducted by other study groups.
The following tasks related to the FY 74 Shuttle Users Analysis were completed: (1) STS user charge analysis, (2) business risk and value of operations in space (BRAVO) analysis, and (3) standardized subsystem module analysis. The first task was required to initiate the process of furnishing transportation charge estimates for STS payloads to STS users.
This report focuses on determining a best value, low risk, low cost and highly reliable Data and Command System for support of the launch of low cost vehicles which are to carry small payloads into low earth orbit. The ground-based DCS is considered as a component of the overall ground and flight support system which includes the DCS, flight computer, mission planning system and simulator. Interfaces between the DCS and these other component systems are considered. Consideration is also given to the operational aspects of the mission and of the DCS selected. This project involved: defining requirements, defining an efficient operations concept, defining a DCS architecture which satisfies the requirements and concept, conducting a market survey of commercial and government off-the-shelf DCS candidate systems and rating the candidate systems against the requirements/concept. The primary conclusions are that several low cost, off-the-shelf DCS solutions exist and these can be employed to provide for very low cost operations and low recurring maintenance cost. The primary recommendation is that the DCS design/specification should be integrated within the ground and flight support system design as early as possible to ensure ease of interoperability and efficient allocation of automation functions among the component systems.
Electric propulsion vehicle systems envelop a wide range of propulsion alternatives including solar and nuclear, which present unique circumstances for qualification. This paper will address the alternatives for qualification of electric propulsion spacecraft systems. The approach taken will be to address the considerations for qualification at the various levels of systems definition. Additionally, for each level of qualification the system level risk implications will be developed. Also, the paper will explore the implications of analysis verses test for various levels of systems definition, while retaining the objectives of a verification program. The limitations of terrestrial testing will be explored along with the risk and implications of orbital demonstration testing. The paper will seek to develop a template for structuring of a verification program based on cost, risk and value return. A successful verification program should establish controls and define objectives of the verification compliance program. Finally the paper will seek to address the political and programmatic factors, which may impact options for system verification.
Congestion control is an important feature that directly affects network performance. Network congestion may cause loss of data or long delays. Although this problem has been studied extensively in the Internet, the solutions for Internet congestion control do not apply readily to challenged network environments such as Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN) where end-to-end connectivity may not exist continuously and latency can be high. In DTN, end-to-end rate control is not feasible. This calls for congestion control mechanisms where the decisions can be made autonomously with local information only. We use an economic pricing model and propose a rule-based congestion control mechanism where each router can autonomously decide on whether to accept a bundle (data) based on local information such as available storage and the value and risk of accepting the bundle (derived from historical statistics). Preliminary experimental results show that this congestion control mechanism can protect routers from resource depletion without loss of data.
Congestion control is an important feature that directly affects network performance. Network congestion may cause loss of data or long delays. Although this problem has been studied extensively in the Internet, the solutions for Internet congestion control do not apply readily to challenged network environments such as Delay Tolerant Networks (DTN) where end-to-end connectivity may not exist continuously and latency can be high. In DTN, end-to-end rate control is not feasible. This calls for congestion control mechanisms where the decisions can be made autonomously with local information only. We use an economic pricing model and propose a rule-based congestion control mechanism where each router can autonomously decide on whether to accept a bundle (data) based on local information such as available storage and the value and risk of accepting the bundle (derived from historical statistics).
The theory of System Health Management (SHM) and of its operational subset Fault Management (FM) states that FM is implemented as a "meta" control loop, known as an FM Control Loop (FMCL). The FMCL detects that all or part of a system is now failed, or in the future will fail (that is, cannot be controlled within acceptable limits to achieve its objectives), and takes a control action (a response) to return the system to a controllable state. In terms of control theory, the effectiveness of each FMCL is estimated based on its ability to correctly estimate the system state, and on the speed of its response to the current or impending failure effects. This paper describes how this theory has been successfully applied on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Space Launch System (SLS) Program to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of proposed abort triggers so as to select the most effective suite to protect the astronauts from catastrophic failure of the SLS. The premise behind this process is to be able to quantitatively provide the value versus risk trade‐off for any given abort trigger, allowing decision makers to make more informed decisions. All current and planned crewed launch vehicles have some form of vehicle health management system integrated with an emergency launch abort system to ensure crew safety. While the design can vary, the underlying principle is the same: detect imminent catastrophic vehicle failure, initiate launch abort, and extract the crew to safety. Abort triggers are the detection mechanisms that identify that a catastrophic launch vehicle failure is occurring or is imminent and cause the initiation of a notification to the crew vehicle that the escape system must be activated. While ensuring that the abort triggers provide this function, designers must also ensure that the abort triggers do not signal that a catastrophic failure is imminent when in fact the launch vehicle can successfully achieve orbit. That is, the abort triggers must have low false negative rates to be sure that real crew‐threatening failures are detected, and also low false positive rates to ensure that the crew does not abort from non‐crew‐threatening launch vehicle behaviors. The analysis process described in this paper is a compilation of over six years of lessons learned and refinements from experiences developing abort triggers for NASA's Constellation Program (Ares I Project) and the SLS Program, as well as the simultaneous development of SHM/FM theory. The paper will describe the abort analysis concepts and process, developed in conjunction with SLS Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) to define a common set of mission phase, failure scenario, and Loss of Mission Environment (LOME) combinations upon which the SLS Loss of Mission (LOM) Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models are built. This abort analysis also requires strong coordination with the Multi‐Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) and SLS Structures and Environments (STE) to formulate a series of abortability tables that encapsulate explosion dynamics over the ascent mission phase. The design and assessment of abort conditions and triggers to estimate their Loss of Crew (LOC) Benefits also requires in‐depth integration with other groups, including Avionics, Guidance, Navigation and Control(GN&C), the Crew Office, Mission Operations, and Ground Systems. The outputs of this analysis are a critical input to SLS S&MA's LOC PRA models. The process described here may well be the first full quantitative application of SHM/FM theory to the selection of a sensor suite for any aerospace system.
The Trilateral partners — the European Space Agency (ESA), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the United States Government (USG) in their execution of safe and successful missions, have a long-standing history of sustaining the shared space environment of operational Earth-Moon orbits with their global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, of these areas. This has driven missions to limit the generation of new and long-lived debris, control debris releases, minimize accidental explosions and collisions, and ensure Post-Mission Disposal of space systems, so that the environment remains safe for future operations and explorations. Given the continued need for space systems to support global mandatory infrastructure and commercial enterprise, spacefarers are extending beyond the Trilateral partners, more and smaller satellites are being deployed, and current assets are being utilized much longer than expected. This is making space more congested than ever; therefore, the Trilateral partners are evaluating potential future debris mitigation strategies, evolving technology, developing on-orbit servicing capabilities, and advancing their abilities to assess disposal and mission extension plans. They are also sharing their lessons learned and identifying opportunities for future state-of-the-art advancements for current and future space enterprises. Sustaining the space environment cannot be ensured by any one agency or country. Thus, the Trilateral authors have shared their lessons learned, insights, and guidance, herein, on disposal and mission extension assessment strategies with the gratitude of each agency. As such, this document is not prescriptive, but was formulated to enhance value-and-risk-balanced operational decision-making, support policy refinement, and guide spacefaring partners beyond these agencies to assess their activities in space with safety and a global space-stewardship, or spacekeeping, in mind. This includes not only the disposal and mission extension assessment addressed herein, but also preserving space history, ensuring collaboration/interoperability of technology, supporting fellow operators without interfering, and the utilization of in-situ resources for the common benefit of humankind. It is the intention of the Trilateral partners that this document evolves based on community lessons learned and the introduction of new assessment methodologies. So, all readers are encouraged to share their insights with the authors from their own application of this guidance or other strategies to ensure each mission has a successful, safe, and judicious life and conclusion.
Cytogenetic analysis of blood lymphocytes remains the most sensitive and reliable method available for in vivo assessment of the biological effects of exposure to radiation and provides the most informative measurement of radiation induced health risks. To date chromosome damage has been assessed in lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their prefight yield and biodosimetry estimates lie within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Biodosimetry data provides a direct measurement of space radiation damage, which takes into account individual radiosensitivity in the presence of confounding factors such as microgravity and other stress conditions. In contrast to physical measurements, which are external to body and require multiple devices to detect all radiation types all of which have poor sensitivity to neutrons, biodosimetry is internal and includes the effects of shielding provided by the body itself plus chromosome damage shows excellent sensitivity to protons, heavy ions, and neutrons. In addition, chromosome damage is reflective of cancer risk and biodosimetry values can therefore be used to validate and develop risk assessment models that can be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by crewmembers. A review of astronaut biodosimetry data will be presented along with recent findings on the persistence of space radiation induced chromosome damage and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long duration missions
Biodosimetry data provides a direct measurement of space radiation damage, which takes into account individual radiosensitivity in the presence of confounding factors such as microgravity and other stress conditions. In contrast to physical measurements, which are external to body and require multiple devices to detect all radiation types all of which have poor sensitivity to neutrons, biodosimetry is internal and includes the effects of shielding provided by the body itself plus chromosome damage shows excellent sensitivity to protons, heavy ions, and neutrons. Moreover, chromosome damage maybe reflective of cancer risk and biodosimetry values can therefore be used to validate and develop risk assessment models that can be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by crewmembers. Cytogenetic biodosimetry methods have been used extensively for assessing terrestrial radiation exposures, and remain the most sensitive in vivo indicator of dose available to date. The main cellular radiation target is the DNA, and radiation-induced damage in the DNA molecule can be visualized as aberrations in the chromosomes (breaks in the chromosomes or exchanges of DNA material between different chromosomes). Normal chromosomes contain a single condensed and constricted area called a centromere that helps the chromosome number to remain stable when a cell divides.
Launch vehicle reliability analysis is largely dependent upon using predicted failure rates from data sources such as MIL-HDBK-217F. Reliability prediction methodologies based on component data do not take into account system integration risks such as those attributable to manufacturing and assembly. These sources often dominate component level risk. While consequence of failure is often understood, using predicted values in a risk model to estimate the probability of occurrence may underestimate the actual risk. Managers and decision makers use the probability of occurrence to influence the determination whether to accept the risk or require a design modification. The actual risk threshold for acceptance may not be fully understood due to the absence of system level test data or operational data. This paper will establish a method and approach to identify the pitfalls and precautions of accepting risk based solely upon predicted failure data. This approach will provide a set of guidelines that may be useful to arrive at a more realistic quantification of risk prior to acceptance by a program.
The objective of this paper is to present a method for importance analysis in parametric probabilistic modeling where the result of interest is the identification of potential engineering vulnerabilities associated with postulated anomalies in system behavior. In the context of Accident Precursor Analysis (APA), under which this method has been developed, these vulnerabilities, designated as anomaly vulnerabilities, are conditions that produce high risk in the presence of anomalous system behavior. The method defines a parameter-specific Parameter Vulnerability Importance measure (PVI), which identifies anomaly risk-model parameter values that indicate the potential presence of anomaly vulnerabilities, and allows them to be prioritized for further investigation. This entails analyzing each uncertain risk-model parameter over its credible range of values to determine where it produces the maximum risk. A parameter that produces high system risk for a particular range of values suggests that the system is vulnerable to the modeled anomalous conditions, if indeed the true parameter value lies in that range. Thus, PVI analysis provides a means of identifying and prioritizing anomaly-related engineering issues that at the very least warrant improved understanding to reduce uncertainty, such that true vulnerabilities may be identified and proper corrective actions taken.
The uncertainties in estimating the health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are a major limitation to the length of space missions and the evaluation of potential risk mitigation approaches. NASA limits astronaut exposures to a 3% risk of exposure induced cancer death (REID), and protects against uncertainties in risks projections using an assessment of 95% confidence intervals after propagating the error from all model factors (environment and organ exposure, risk coefficients, dose-rate modifiers, and quality factors). Because there are potentially significant late mortality risks from diseases of the circulatory system and central nervous system (CNS) which are less well defined than cancer risks, the cancer REID limit is not necessarily conservative. In this report, we discuss estimates of lifetime risks from space radiation and new estimates of model uncertainties are described. The key updates to the NASA risk projection model are: 1) Revised values for low LET risk coefficients for tissue specific cancer incidence, with incidence rates transported to an average U.S. population to estimate the probability of Risk of Exposure Induced Cancer (REIC) and REID. 2) An analysis of smoking attributable cancer risks for never-smokers that shows significantly reduced lung cancer risk as well as overall cancer risks from radiation compared to risk estimated for the average U.S. population. 3) Derivation of track structure based quality functions depends on particle fluence, charge number, Z and kinetic energy, E. 4) The assignment of a smaller maximum in quality function for leukemia than for solid cancers. 5) The use of the ICRP tissue weights is shown to over-estimate cancer risks from SPEs by a factor of 2 or more. Summing cancer risks for each tissue is recommended as a more accurate approach to estimate SPE cancer risks. 6) Additional considerations on circulatory and CNS disease risks. Our analysis shows that an individual s history of smoking exposure has a larger impact on GCR risk estimates than amounts of radiation shielding or age at exposure (amongst adults). Risks for never-smokers compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for never-smokers, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity and esophagus, and leukemia. The relative contribution of CNS risks to the overall space radiation detriment is potentially increased for never-smokers such as most astronauts. Problems in estimating risks for former smokers and the influence of second-hand smoke are discussed. Compared to the LET approximation, the new track structure derived radiation quality functions lead to a reduced risk for relativistic energy particles and increased risks for intermediate energy particles. Revised estimates for the number of safe days in space at solar minimum for heavy shielding conditions are described for never-smokers and the average U.S. population. Results show that missions to near Earth asteroids (NEA) or Mars violate NASA's radiation safety standards with the current levels of uncertainties. Greater improvements in risk estimates for never-smokers are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).
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Forest and grass fires cause economic losses in the billions of dollars in the U.S. alone. In addition, boreal forests constitute a large carbon store; it has been estimated that, were no burning to occur, an additional 7 gigatons of carbon would be sequestered in boreal soils each century. Effective wildfire suppression requires anticipation of locales and times for which wildfire is most probable, preferably with a two to four week forecast, so that limited resources can be efficiently deployed. The United States Forest Service (USFS), and other experts and agencies have developed several measures of fire risk combining physical principles and expert judgment, and have used them in automated procedures for forecasting fire risk. Forecasting accuracies for some fire risk indices in combination with climate and other variables have been estimated for specific locations, with the value of fire risk index variables assessed by their statistical significance in regressions. In other cases, the MAPSS forecasts [23, 241 for example, forecasting accuracy has been estimated only by simulated data. We describe alternative forecasting methods that predict fire probability by locale and time using statistical or machine learning procedures trained on historical data, and we give comparative assessments of their forecasting accuracy for one fire season year, April- October, 2003, for all U.S. Forest Service lands. Aside from providing an accuracy baseline for other forecasting methods, the results illustrate the interdependence between the statistical significance of prediction variables and the forecasting method used.
Increased risk of renal stone formation during space flight has been linked primarily to increased calcium excretion from bone demineralization induced by space flight. Other factors contributing to increased risk include increased urinary calcium oxalate supersaturation, while urinary citrate, magnesium and volume are all decreased. The aim of this study was to increase the predictive value of stone risk profiles for crew members during space flight by evaluating the excretion of urinary protein inhibitors of calcium crystallization so that more comprehensive stone risk profiles could relate mineral saturation to the concentrations of inhibitor proteins. Levels of urinary osteopontin (uropontin) are reported in a series of 14 astronauts studied before, during, and after space flights. During space flight, a compensatory increase in uropontin excretion was not observed. However, the uropontin excretion of a majority of astronauts was increased during the period after space flight and was maximal at 2 wk after landing. The downward shift in the molecular size of uropontin observed in samples obtained during space flight was shown to result from storage at ambient temperature during flight, rather than an effect of microgravity on uropontin synthesis.
As an intern this summer in the GRC Risk Management Office, I have become familiar with the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process. In this process, risk is considered in terms of the probability that an undesired event will occur and the impact of the event, should it occur (ref., NASA-NPG: 7120.5). Risk management belongs in every part of every project and should be ongoing from start to finish. Another key point is that a risk is not a problem until it has happened. With that in mind, there is a six step cycle for continuous risk management that prevents risks from becoming problems. The steps are: identify, analyze, plan, track, control, and communicate & document. Incorporated in the first step are several methods to identify risks such as brainstorming and using lessons learned. Once a risk is identified, a risk statement is made on a risk information sheet consisting of a single condition and one or more consequences. There can also be a context section where the risk is explained in more detail. Additionally there are three main goals of analyzing a risk, which are evaluate, classify, and prioritize. Here is where a value is given to the attributes of a risk &e., probability, impact, and timeframe) based on a multi-level classification system (e.g., low, medium, high). It is important to keep in mind that the definitions of these levels are probably different for each project. Furthermore the risks can be combined into groups. Then, the risks are prioritized to see what risk is necessary to mitigate first. After the risks are analyzed, a plan is made to mitigate as many risks as feasible. Each risk should be assigned to someone in the project with knowledge in the area of the risk. Then the possible approaches to choose from are: research, accept, watch, or mitigate. Next, all risks, mitigated or not, are tracked either individually or in groups. As the plan is executed, risks are re-evaluated, and the attribute values are adjusted as necessary. Metrics are established and monitored as tools for risk tracking. Also a trigger or threshold should be set on the metric data that indicates when an action is needed. Results of this tracking are usually evaluated and reported in a relevant format at weekly or monthly meetings. Choosing controls is the subsequent step, which involves the effects of the tracking. The three basic controls are: close, continue tracking, and re- plan. Finally communicate & document is the last step, but occurs throughout the process. It is vital that main risks, plans, changes, and progress are known by everyone in the project. A good way to keep everyone updated and inform other projects of common issues is by thoroughly documenting project risks. NASA sees value in risk management and believes that projects have greater probability or success by using the NASA Continuous Risk Management Process.
NASA's recent attention and interest in sending a human mission to land on a Near-Earth asteroid raised the question of whether to first send a robotic surveyor. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the value and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending (versus not sending) surveyor missions prior to a human mission. A multiattribute decision analysis approach was used to account for both mission value and cost in each of 27 hypothetical risk-attitude cases corresponding to an emphasis on mission value; equal priority between mission value and cost; and an emphasis on cost. The decisions implied by the different strategic viewpoints are described.