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Foothill Transit Agency Battery Electric Bus Progress Report. Data Period Focus: Jan. 2020 through June 2020

This report summarizes results of a battery electric bus (BEB) evaluation at Foothill Transit, located in the San Gabriel Valley area of Los Angeles. Foothill Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate the buses in revenue service. The focus of this evaluation is to compare the performance and the operating costs of the BEBs to that of conventional technology buses and to track progress over time. Previous reports documented results from April 2014 through December 2019. This report extends the data analysis through June 2020. The data period focus of this report is January 2020-June 2020. NREL plans to publish progress reports on the Foothill Transit fleet every 6 months through 2020.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Predictive Evaluations of Oxygen-Rich Hydrocarbon Combustion Gas-Centered Swirl Coaxial Injectors using a Flamelet-Based 3-D CFD Simulation Approach

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has embarked upon a joint project with the Air Force to improve the state-of-the-art of space application combustion device design and operational understanding. One goal of the project is to design, build and hot-fire test a 40,000 pound-thrust Oxygen/Rocket Propellant-2 (RP-2) Oxygen-Rich staged engine at MSFC. The overall project goals afford the opportunity to test multiple different injector designs and experimentally evaluate the any effect on the engine performance and combustion dynamics. To maximize the available test resources and benefits, pre-test, combusting flow, Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed on the individual injectors to guide the design. The results of the CFD analysis were used to design the injectors for specific, targeted fluid dynamic features and the analysis results also provided some predictive input for acoustic and thermal analysis of the main Thrust Chamber Assembly (TCA). MSFC has developed and demonstrated the ability to utilize a computationally efficient, flamelet-based combustion model to guide the pre-test design of single-element Gas Centered Swirl Coaxial (GCSC) injectors. Previous, Oxygen/RP-2 simulation models utilizing the Loci-STREAM flow solver, were validated using single injector test data from the EC-1 Air Force test facility. The simulation effort herein is an extension of the validated, CFD driven, single-injector design approach applied to single injectors which will be part of a larger engine array. Time-accurate, Three-Dimensional, CFD simulations were performed for five different classes of injector geometries. Simulations were performed to guide the design of the injector to achieve a variety of intended performance goals. For example, two GCSC injectors were designed to achieve stable hydrodynamic behavior of the propellant circuits while providing the largest thermal margin possible within the design envelope. While another injector was designed to purposefully create a hydrodynamic instability in the fuel supply circuit as predicted by the CFD analysis. Future multi-injector analysis and testing will indicate what if any changes occur in the predicted behavior for the single-element injector when the same injector geometry is placed in a multi-element array.

Richardson, Brian R.↗

Using multiple high-resolution datasets to benchmark the energy exascale earth system model (E3SM) for renewable resource assessment

The United States is accelerating its shift toward a renewable energy system. However, renewable resources, which harness energy from the Earth system, are susceptible to both present-day climate variability and future climate change. For example, variations in regional climate can alter renewable energy production patterns and site viability. The use of high-resolution climate model projections can therefore facilitate and may be critical to long-term planning of renewable energy investments. However, climate models must first be validated for renewable resource assessment. This research employs multiple high-spatiotemporal-resolution datasets to assess the capability of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 North American Regionally Refined Model (E3SMv2-NARRM) for predicting multi-year climatological values of solar and wind energy capacity factors in the continental U.S., with a focus on regional and seasonal variability. Present-day E3SMv2-NARRM simulations are compared with reported utility-scale production data obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). In addition, E3SMv2-NARRM data are evaluated against non-climate benchmark models from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, including the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit and the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), as well as three wind energy datasets from PLUSWIND. Our analysis indicates that solar capacity factors from E3SM closely match those from the NSRDB dataset. However, both datasets tend to overestimate values by 10% in comparison to EIA data. Furthermore, biases in wind capacity factors within E3SM are notably pronounced in the West Coast regions, where the seasonal cycle diverges from EIA data.

Energy forecasting, Capacity factor, Renewable ene↗

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in the Lower Mekong River Basin (Southeast Asia)

Satellite-based precipitation is an essential tool for regional water resource applications that requires frequent observations of meteorological forcing, particularly in areas that have sparse rain gauge networks. To fully realize the utility of remotely sensed precipitation products in watershed modeling and decision-making, a thorough evaluation of the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall and regional gauge network estimates is needed. In this study, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42 v.7 and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) daily rainfall estimates were compared with daily rain gauge observations from 2000 to 2014 in the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Southeast Asia. Monthly, seasonal, and annual comparisons were performed, which included the calculations of correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, bias, root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Our validation test showed TMPA to correctly detect precipitation or no-precipitation 64.9% of all days and CHIRPS 66.8% of all days, compared to daily in-situ rainfall measurements. The accuracy of the satellite-based products varied greatly between the wet and dry seasons. Both TMPA and CHIRPS showed higher correlation with in-situ data during the wet season (June–September) as compared to the dry season (November–January). Additionally, both performed better on a monthly than an annual time-scale when compared to in-situ data. The satellite-based products showed wet biases during months that received higher cumulative precipitation. Based on a spatial correlation analysis, the average r-value of CHIRPS was much higher than TMPA across the basin. CHIRPS correlated better than TMPA at lower elevations and for monthly rainfall accumulation less than 500 mm. While both satellite-based products performed well, as compared to rain gauge measurements, the present research shows that CHIRPS might be better at representing precipitation over the LMRB than TMPA.

Dandridge, Chelsea↗

Unlocking hidden information in sparse small-angle neutron scattering measurements

Hypothesis Small-Angle Neutron Scattering (SANS) is a powerful technique for studying soft matter systems such as colloids, polymers, and lyotropic phases, providing nanoscale structural insights. However, its effectiveness is limited by low neutron flux, leading to long acquisition times and noisy data. Here, we hypothesize that Bayesian statistical inference using Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) can reconstruct high-fidelity scattering data from sparse measurements by leveraging intensity smoothness and continuity. Experiments and Simulations The method was benchmarked computationally and validated through SANS experiments on various soft matter systems, including wormlike micelles, colloidal suspensions, polymeric structures, and lyotropic phases. GPR-based inference was applied to both experimental and synthetic data to evaluate its effectiveness in noise reduction and intensity reconstruction. Findings GPR significantly enhances SANS data quality and therefore reducing measurement times by up to two orders of magnitude. This cost-effective approach maximizes experimental efficiency, enabling high-throughput studies and real-time monitoring of dynamic systems. It is particularly beneficial for weakly scattering and time-sensitive studies. Beyond SANS, this framework applies to other low-SNR techniques, including laboratory-based small-angle X-ray scattering and various dynamical scattering methods. Furthermore, it offers transformative potential for compact neutron sources, enhancing their viability for structural analysis in resource-limited settings.

Small angle neutron scattering↗

Release of ENDF/B-VIII.1β1-Based ACE Data Files

On March 1 st , 2023, the National Nuclear Data Center (NNDC) released the ENDF/B-VIII.1β1 nuclear data library, which contained neutron, spontaneous and neutron-induced fission yield, and alpha sublibraries. The library was released in the standard Evaluated Nuclear Data File (ENDF) format. The files can be accessed on Brookhaven National Laboratory’s GitLab. The thermal scattering law (TSL) sublibrary will be released at a later date. The files provided in the neutron sublibrary were processed into A Compact ENDF (ACE)-formatted files, verified, and validated by the XCP-5 Nuclear Data Team. The resulting collection of ACE files will be referred to as the “e81b1” library. This report details the processing of these files and the quality assurance approach taken. This is not intended to be a full validation effort; rather, this library is intended to simply reproduce the released files for further validation testing by the community. The e81b1 ACE library will be released to the NNDC for access through GitLab and hosted locally on LANL computing resources. This library is only intended for analysis to support the future ENDF/B-VIII.1 release and should not be used for production results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Aggregate data‐driven dynamic modeling of active distribution networks with DERs for voltage stability studies

Abstract Electric distribution networks increasingly host distributed energy resources based on power electronic converter (PEC) toward active distribution networks (ADN). Despite advances in computational capabilities, electromagnetic transient models are limited in scalability because of their reliance on exact data about the distribution system and each of its components. Similarly, the use of the DER_A model, which is intended to examine the combined dynamic behavior of many DERs, is limited by the difficulty in parameterization. There is a need for improved dynamic models of DERs for use in large power system simulations for stability analysis. This paper proposes an aggregate model‐free, data‐driven approach for deriving a dynamic partitioned model (DPM) of ADNs. Detailed residential distribution feeders were first developed, including PEC‐based DERs and composite load models (CMLDs), from which the aggregated DPM was derived. The performance was evaluated through various case studies and validated against the detailed ADN model and state‐of‐the‐art DER_A model with CMLD. The data‐driven DPM achieved a of over 90%, accurately representing the aggregated dynamic behavior of ADNs. Furthermore, the DPM significantly accelerated the simulation process with a computational speedup of 68 times compared to the detailed ADN and a 3.5 times speedup compared to the DER_A CMLD model.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation

After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evaluation of AI-enabled Digital Documented Safety Analysis

The National Reactor Innovation Center (NRIC) is leading a transformative initiative to accelerate advanced reactor deployment by fundamentally reimagining how nuclear safety basis documentation is developed, reviewed, and maintained. Traditional Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) processes for DOE-authorized facilities rely on static, document-centric workflows that consume significant time and resources, exemplified by recent major licensing efforts requiring hundreds of thousands of staff hours and millions of pages of documentation review. These conventional approaches create barriers to the rapid, cost-effective deployment of advanced reactors that America's future energy needs demand. NRIC's DOE Authorization Digital Transformation Project addresses these challenges through an innovative framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), digital engineering, and systems-based data management into a cohesive digital ecosystem. This white paper presents NRIC's methodology for evaluating AI-enabled document generation capabilities within this broader digital infrastructure, using the Demonstration of Microreactor Experiments (DOME) facility as a pilot case study. The evaluation will assess an AI tool's ability to generate a Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis (PDSA) through progressive integration stages—from standalone document processing to full digital thread connectivity—while maintaining rigorous verification, validation, and regulatory acceptance standards. By establishing dynamic, traceable connections between design data and safety documentation, NRIC's approach has the potential to reduce both document development time and regulatory review cycles by as much as 50%, while simultaneously improving accuracy, consistency, and traceability. This initiative represents a critical step toward establishing reusable digital infrastructure that reactor developers can leverage to accelerate their path from concept to commercial operation, directly supporting NRIC's mission to demonstrate and deploy advanced nuclear energy technologies.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Leveraging BERT and Network-Based Attention Analysis for Identifying Treatment Milestones in EHRs

This study introduces a sophisticated data-driven framework for analyzing Electronic Health Records (EHRs) using transformer-based models to identify and disentangle overlapping treatment contexts. The framework leverages a preprocessing pipeline that transforms structured procedural codes into semantically enriched descriptive text, enabling the use of attention mechanisms to cluster medical events into treatment milestones—cohesive and distinct components of care processes. The methodology is rigorously validated using synthetic datasets derived from the MIMIC-III database, designed to simulate the heterogeneity and overlapping procedural contexts characteristic of real-world EHR scenarios. Quantitative evaluation highlights the framework’s robustness in disentangling concurrent care pathways, with attention metrics and unsupervised clustering approaches demonstrating the ability to preserve intra-context relationships while distinguishing inter-context dependencies. By addressing challenges inherent in data heterogeneity, this approach provides a foundation for uncovering complex treatment patterns, advancing clinical decision-making, and optimizing resource allocation in diverse healthcare environments.

Kim, Minsu [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000224185535)↗

Identification and mapping of quantitative trait loci for Fusarium head blight resistance in a synthetic hexaploid × hard red spring wheat population

Abstract Fusarium head blight (FHB), caused byFusarium graminearumSchwabe, is one of the most devastating diseases in wheat (Triticum aestivumL.). The synthetic hexaploid wheat line Largo was developed from a cross between the durum wheat [T. turgidumssp.durum(Desf.) Husn.] variety Langdon and theAegilops tauschiiCosson accession PI 268210, and it was previously found to have a moderate level of FHB resistance. This study was conducted to identify quantitative trait loci (QTL) associated with FHB resistance using a population of 188 recombinant inbred lines (RILs) from a cross between Largo and the susceptible wheat line ND495. The RILs were evaluated for Type II resistance in two greenhouse and two field environments. The disease severity and 90K single‐nucleotide polymorphism marker data were used for QTL analysis, which revealed six QTL on chromosomes 1D, 2D, 5B, and 7D. Four QTL (QFhb.rwg‐1D,QFhb.rwg‐5B,QFhb.rwg‐7D.1, andQFhb.rwg‐7D.3) from Largo had minor effects, whereas two QTL (QFhb.rwg‐2DandQFhb.rwg‐7D.2) from ND495 showed large effects on FHB resistance. The result suggested that ND495 may possess suppressor or susceptibility gene(s) suppressing or masking FHB resistance controlled by the resistance QTL. Among these QTL, four coincided with previously reported QTL, includingFhb9, and two (QFhb.rwg‐1DandQFhb.rwg‐7D.1) are likely novel QTL. From the six QTL regions, 10 Kompetitive allele‐specific PCR markers were developed and validated for marker‐assisted selection. The QTL detected from the resistant and susceptible parents enhance our understanding of FHB resistance expression and provide new resources for improving FHB resistance in wheat.

Genetics & Heredity↗

Bias Characterization, Vertical Interpolation, and Horizontal Interpolation for Distributed Wind Siting Using Mesoscale Wind Resource Estimates

Much like their counterparts in utility-scale wind energy, developers of industrial, small-scale and distributed wind turbine deployments need to understand and accurately characterize the wind resource to properly assess the power generation and financial ramifications during siting and planning. National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s WIND (Wind Integration National Dataset) Toolkit (WTK) provides a best-in-class wind resource dataset generated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. This dataset includes parameters such as the wind speed, wind direction, and temperature at various heights, plus atmospheric stability near the surface. This data is available at 2-km spatial resolution and five-minute temporal resolution across 7 years, from 2007 to 2013 through a publicly accessible API interface. The Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project seeks to extend this dataset to allow long term resource estimates and leverage it to better equip distributed wind equipment manufacturers, owner-operators, and installation professionals with better tools for practical siting applications. In this report, we present the results from our investigation within the TAP project focused on characterization of bias in WTK-based wind speed estimates and evaluation of vertical and horizontal interpolation techniques. We discuss the tradeoffs between different techniques and their combinations, as well as describe the lower bounds we determine for the studied validation errors. While the specific estimates we present are specific to WTK and the validation dataset we have chosen for this investigation (NREL's Wind Resource Meteorological Database), the overall analysis and the studied techniques are general enough to be applied to a broader set of wind datasets, both simulation-based and observational.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Data Collection and Analysis Challenges and Mitigation Strategies for Quantitative Human Factors Research Studies in Nuclear Power Plant Modernization

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program Plant Modernization Pathway is conducting targeted research and development (R&D) to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control and related information systems of the U.S. LWR fleet. In this effort, the application of human factors engineering (HFE) provides an important role in ensuring new digital plant technologies enable broad innovation and business improvement with continued operational safety. Evaluation is a key activity in HFE, which often occurs iteratively through the system design lifecycle. While qualitative methods are important in collecting information of how users perform tasks through observations, quantitative methods are equally important in assessing system design based on performance. In collecting and analyzing this quantitative data, there are notable challenges in the nuclear HFE domain that may threaten the validity and reliability of the inferences made in these studies. Notable challenges include small sample size and limited resources, large error variance and small effect size, an “adding test features to losing degrees of freedom” dilemma, non-normal distribution, and heterogeneity of variance. The results in control room usability studies are often statistically non-significant, which makes it hard to interpret. This work discusses these challenges across different scientific viewpoints and provides real-world examples of these challenges in practice. Collectively, the objective of this work is to position these challenges to the larger data science community as a means of identifying future opportunities to address these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Aircraft Conceptual Structural Design Using the AMMIT Structural Analysis Tool

Aircraft conceptual structural design is the process of developing and refining an idea for an aircraft into a feasible structural design. The process typically involves multiple evaluations of a single configuration and can require designers to examine thousands of concepts. Standard approaches to conducting structural analyses in this phase are either based on the use of historical or empirical data or often require significant expertise in structural analysis to perform these rapid assessments. The AMMIT structural analysis tool includes structural line models and handbook methods wrapped in a simple to use interface that can enable rapid, physics-based structural designs without requiring extensive structural expertise. The objectives of the present paper are to introduce AMMIT, describe the methods used in AMMIT, and present the results of the validation effort. Validation of the AMMIT methodology was performed on nine aircraft to determine the accuracy of the methods, highlight features of AMMIT, and guide future development of the methodology. Results of the validation effort indicated that AMMIT provides a prediction of primary structural weight for each aircraft with an acceptable level of error during the preliminary design phase with a minimal expenditure of computational resources.

Horvath, Bryce L.↗

Everybody Needs Somebody Sometimes: Validation of Adaptive Recovery in Robotic Space Operations

This work assesses an adaptive approach to fault recovery in autonomous robotic space operations, which uses indicators of opportunity, such as physiological state measurements and observations of past human assistant performance, to inform future selections. We validated our reinforcement learning approach using data we collected from humans executing simulated mission scenarios. We present a method of structuring human-factors experiments that permits collection of relevant indicator of opportunity and assigned assistance task performance data, as well as evaluation of our adaptive approach, without requiring large numbers of test subjects. Application of our reinforcement learning algorithm to our experimental data shows that our adaptive assistant selection approach can achieve lower cumulative regret compared to existing non-adaptive baseline approaches when using real human data. Our work has applications beyond space robotics to any application where autonomy failures may occur that require external intervention.

Human-centered robotics↗

Modeling and Prediction of the Noise from Non-Axisymmetric Jets

The new source model was combined with the original sound propagation model developed for rectangular jets to produce a new version of the rectangular jet noise prediction code. This code was validated using a set of rectangular nozzles whose geometries were specified by NASA. Nozzles of aspect ratios two, four and eight were studied at jet exit Mach numbers of 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9, for a total of nine cases. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions for these jets were provided to the contactor for use as input to the code. Quantitative comparisons of the predicted azimuthal and polar directivity of the acoustic spectrum were made with experimental data provided by NASA. The results of these comparisons, along with a documentation of the propagation and source models, were reported in a journal article publication (Ref. 4). The complete set of computer codes and computational modules that make up the prediction scheme, along with a user's guide describing their use and example test cases, was provided to NASA as a deliverable of this task. The use of conformal mapping, along with simplified modeling of the mean flow field, for noise propagation modeling was explored for other nozzle geometries, to support the task milestone of developing methods which are applicable to other geometries and flow conditions of interest to NASA. A model to represent twin round jets using this approach was formulated and implemented. A general approach to solving the equations governing sound propagation in a locally parallel nonaxisymmetric jet was developed and implemented, in aid of the tasks and milestones charged with selecting more exact numerical methods for modeling sound propagation, and developing methods that have application to other nozzle geometries. The method is based on expansion of both the mean-flowdependent coefficients in the governing equation and the Green's function in series of orthogonal functions. The method was coded and tested on two analytically prescribed mean flows which were meant to represent noise reduction concepts being considered by NASA. Testing (Ref. 5) showed that the method was feasible for the types of mean flows of interest in jet noise applications. Subsequently, this method was further developed to allow use of mean flow profiles obtained from a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solution of the flow. Preliminary testing of the generalized code was among the last tasks completed under this contract. The stringent noise-reduction goals of NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program suggest that, in addition to potentially complex exhaust nozzle geometries, next generation aircraft will also involve tighter integration of the engine with the airframe. Therefore, noise generated and propagated by jet flows in the vicinity of solid surfaces is expected to be quite significant, and reduced-order noise prediction tools will be needed that can deal with such geometries. One important source of noise is that generated by the interaction of a turbulent jet with the edge of a solid surface (edge noise). Such noise is generated, for example, by the passing of the engine exhaust over a shielding surface, such as a wing. Work under this task supported an effort to develop a RANS-based prediction code for edge noise based on an extension of the classical Rapid Distortion Theory (RDT) to transversely sheared base flows (Refs. 6 and 7). The RDT-based theoretical analysis was applied to the generic problem of a turbulent jet interacting with the trailing edge of a flat plate. A code was written to evaluate the formula derived for the spectrum of the noise produced by this interaction and results were compared with data taken at NASA Glenn for a variety of jet/plate configurations and flow conditions (Ref. 8). A longer-term goal of this task was to work toward the development of a high-fidelity model of sound propagation in spatially developing non-axisymmetric jets using direct numerical methods for solving the relevant equations. Working with NASA Glenn Acoustics Branch personnel, numerical methods and boundary conditions appropriate for use in a high-resolution calculation of the full equations governing sound propagation in a steady base flow were identified. Computer codes were then written (by NASA) and tested (by OAI) for an increasingly complex set of flow conditions to validate the methods. The NASA-supplied codes were ported to the High-End Computing resources of the NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility for testing and validation against analytical (where possible) and independent numerical solutions. The cases which were completed during the course of this contract were solutions of the two-dimensional linearized Euler equations with no mean flow, a uniform mean flow and a nonuniform mean flow representative of a parallel flow jet.

Leib, Stewart J.↗

Kenya Food Security & Agriculture II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Enhance Drought Warning Systems and Develop Capacity to Use the RHEAS Model in Kenya

Twenty-three counties in Kenya experience frequent drought, which damages agricultural productivity and threatens the health and well being of millions. NASA DEVELOP partnered with NASA SERVIR, the Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) and Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) to enhance drought-detection capacity using NASA Earth observations. Currently, the NDMA publishes monthly Early Warning Bulletins with drought conditions for each arid or semi-arid county in Kenya. These bulletins utilize the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) from the Moderate Resolution ImagingSpectroradiometer (MODIS) as well as a variety of biophysical, social and economic drought indicators, but do not allow for advanced forecasting. To improve drought-monitoring capabilities, the team created a Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) using the Regional Hydrologic Extremes Assessment System (RHEAS) model and data from Aqua and Terra MODIS and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The CDI combined precipitation anomalies, soil moisture anomalies, evaporative stress, and VCI according to weights determined by principal component analysis. To evaluate the performance of the CDI across Kenya, the team compiled a dataset of drought events from historical reports and the NDMA’s records. Results suggested that the CDI detected drought earlier thanVCI alone. However, more validation is needed to ensure that the CDI accurately and consistently detects drought earlier than current warning systems. In order to better understand the behavior of individual indices and the potential for earlier drought detection, the team also conducted a time-lag analysis. The team found that VCI responds to drought, on average, one month later than most other indices included in the CDI, suggesting that incorporating additional indices could improve early drought warning systems in Kenya.

Food Security & Agriculture↗