Estimation of sunflower planted areas in Ukraine during full-scale Russian invasion: Insights from Sentinel-1 SAR data
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Abdul Qadir↗
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Aligning Ukrainian Building Energy Codes with the EPBD
The aim of this report is to support Ukraine in revising its building energy codes in line with regulations laid out by the Energy Performance in Buildings Directive (EPBD). The main objectives are to i) provide valuable information to help Ukraine align its building energy codes with EPBD requirements, ii) advance the capacity of key stakeholders in Ukraine to develop new regulations based on robust technical methodologies and analysis, iii) summarize building energy codes best practices using examples from the EU and elsewhere, and iv) recommend steps Ukraine can take to improve its building energy code regulations and implementation. This report summarizes EPBD requirements for new buildings, and buildings undergoing major renovations, related to cost-optimal and Nearly Zero Energy Building (NZEB) requirements. This report highlights Ukraine’s progress in aligning it’s building energy codes with the aforementioned requirements and best practices regarding those requirements from the EU and internationally. Based on best practices and Ukraine’s current progress on requirements, recommendations are presented. A brief overview of the EPBD and building energy codes in Ukraine is also provided. Implementation related to building energy codes is touched upon as well. Potential next steps for Ukraine are outlined based on provided recommendations.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Tariff Setting in the District Heating Sector: Recommendations Based on International Experience
Ukraine’s district heating (DH) system is an essential resource for the country and has the potential to provide efficient, local, and renewable energy to a large share of the population. However, inefficient regulation and management have caused the sector to experience a vicious cycle of financial, operational, and technological problems. Overcoming these challenges and building a sustainable DH system requires comprehensive reforms, which could attract significant investment, improve the quality of services, and increase the efficiency of DH. One of the key elements of a comprehensive reform program should be a comprehensive reform of the tariff system. The purpose of this report is to provide analysis of European models for tariff regulation and recommendations for reforms to Ukraine’s DH tariff system. The report presents several case studies from European countries, followed by analysis of the current tariff system in Ukraine and barriers to effective regulation. Based on these findings, the report proposes actions Ukraine could take to improve the tariff regulatory system and promote a sustainable DH sector.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
WTEC panel report on research submersibles and undersea technologies
This report covers research submersibles and related subsea technologies in Finland, France, Russia, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. Manned, teleoperated, and autonomous submersibles were of interest. The panel found that, in contrast to the United States, Europe is making substantial progress in cooperative and coordinated research in subsea technology, including the development of standards. France is a leader in autonomous vehicle technology. Because much less was known a priori about the technologies in Russia and Ukraine, there were more new findings in those countries than in those Western European nations visited. However, Russia and Ukraine have a sizeable (and currently underutilized) infrastructure in this field, including a highly educated and experienced manpower pool, impressive (in some cases unique) facilities for physical testing, extensive fleets of seagoing research vessels capable of long voyages, and state-of-the-art facilities for conducting oceanographic investigations. The panel visited newly-formed commercial companies associated with long-standing submersible R&D and production centers in Russia and Ukraine. So far, these new efforts are undercapitalized, and as such represent opportunities at very low cost for Western nations, as detailed in the site reports.
Seymore, Richard J.↗
Contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons in strategic deterrence and competition: A SOCOM perspective. Part of Section: United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) in Emerging Strategic & Geopolitical Challenges: Operational Implications for US Combatant Commands
Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine demonstrates the challenge for strategic deterrence and competition of countering contentious narratives and disinformation about weapons of mass destruction (WMD) during conventional regional wars against a nucleararmed adversary. Moscow uses both tailored, contentious narratives and targeted disinformation about WMD in Ukraine to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in support of its deterrence and competition objectives vis-à-vis the United States and NATO. Since December 2021, Moscow has made a focal point of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons in its efforts to establish a permissive environment for its military buildup on the border with Ukraine and then its military intervention. These information tactics also demonstrate an opportunity for US Special Operations Forces (SOF). They are a case study for considering how SOF can contribute to strategic deterrence and competition objectives, specifically countering adversary gray-zone information efforts to alter regional security orders.1 Such a role is in line with the 2022 Special Operations Forces Vision and Strategy, which provides a framework for the evolution of SOF into “a force capable of creating strategic, asymmetric advantages for the nation as a key contributor of integrated deterrence” (United States Special Operations Command, 2022). This paper briefly examines this strategic challenge and SOF opportunity, focusing narrowly on the distinction between contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and the role of SOF in countering these gray-zone information tactics. The nuclear dimension of Moscow’s contentious narratives and disinformation in the “special military operation” is of particular interest because it demonstrates the distinction between strategic efforts to influence and disrupt local and global perceptions in Moscow’s favor. This distinction between influence and disruption is less clear with Russia’s contentious narratives and disinformation about chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine, as disinformation about these two types of WMD appears to overwhelm contentious narratives. We believe this distinction is useful for policymakers and warfighters responsible for countering gray-zone information tactics because it provides a framework for crafting tailored responses to contentious narratives and disinformation about nuclear weapons and other WMD. The chapter concludes with a discussion of efforts that could be undertaken by SOF in cooperation with other relevant stakeholders to address this aspect of adversary gray-zone information tactics.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
High-Resolution South American Wind Resource Data Downscaled with Generative Machine Learning Conditioned on Near-Surface Observations
High-resolution historical wind data was developed for the entirety of South America using the innovative Super-Resolution for Renewable Resource Data (sup3r) machine learning framework. The publicly available Sup3rWind South America dataset represents a significant advancement in wind resource data generation, leveraging generative machine learning conditioned on near-surface observations from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) to efficiently and accurately downscale coarse reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). This approach produces fine-scale, spatially and temporally coherent wind and meteorological fields hundreds of times more computationally efficient than traditional numerical weather modeling methods, enabling access to high-fidelity wind information across both continental and offshore regions. Sup3rWind South America builds on the earlier Sup3rWind Ukraine dataset through improvements in model architecture and outputs conditioned on near-surface observation inputs. As with the Ukraine data release, this dataset includes wind speed, wind direction, temperature, relative humidity, and pressure at a horizontal resolution of ~2 km, representing a 15x spatial enhancement relative to the 31 km ERA5 grid. Wind speed and direction are provided at 5-minute resolution, a 12x temporal refinement compared to the hourly ERA5 data, while temperature, relative humidity, and pressure remain at hourly resolution. The data covers all years from 2005 to 2024. Before downscaling, ERA5 inputs were bias-corrected using long-term monthly means and a limited number of quality-controlled observations to align large-scale statistics with regional conditions. The resulting dataset is the first publicly available high-resolution timeseries wind record that provides full spatial coverage of South America. Model validation demonstrates strong agreement with observations across several statistical metrics, consistent with other state-of-the-art high-resolution wind resource datasets. The potential applications of Sup3rWind South America span renewable energy resource assessment, energy system modeling, and grid resilience analysis. The 20-year record and high spatial and temporal resolution support accurate estimation of long-term energy yield and the economic feasibility of potential wind development sites. Continuous coverage across both continental and offshore regions enables comprehensive site prospecting within exclusive economic zones. The 2 km, 5-minute resolution data provide the spatial and temporal variability required for power system simulation, operational planning, and regional risk assessments.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022
The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Thermal, RGB, and Multispectral Unexploded Ordnance Data Collection
As of May 1, 2026 Landmine contamination affects 58 countries and many hundreds of thousands of km² of land. For example, the National Mine Action Program Demining Ukraine reporting that up to 144,000 km² of territory are potentially contaminated and require survey and clearance (National Mine Action Program “Demining Ukraine,” n.d.) alone. This contamination includes mines and other explosive remnants of war and continues to constrain civilian access, agricultural use, infrastructure recovery, and broader socioeconomic activity (International Campaign to Ban Landmines–Cluster Munition Coalition [ICBL-CMC], 2024; Mine Action Review, 2024). Current response activities rely on established mine-action approaches including non-technical survey, technical survey, clearance, and explosive ordnance disposal, consistent with international mine-action terminology and operational practice (United Nations Mine Action Service [UNMAS], 2024; Geneva International Centre for Humanitarian Demining [GICHD], 2023). In this context, UAV-based sensing, including UAV-mounted thermal imaging, may provide a useful supplementary capability by supporting faster, safer detection and mapping of suspect hazards prior to ground intervention (Smiljanic, 2022).
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Trends and source apportionment of aerosols in Europe during 1980-2018
Aerosols have significantly affected health, environment, and climate in Europe. Aerosol concentrations have been declining since the 1980s in Europe,mainly owing to a reduction of local aerosol and precursor emissions.Emissions from other source regions of the world, which have been changing rapidly as well, may also perturb the historical and future trends of aerosols and change their radiative impact in Europe. This study examines trends of aerosols in Europe during 1980–2018 and quantifies contributions from 16 source regions using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST). The simulated near-surface total mass concentration of sulfate, black carbon, and primary organic carbon had a 62 % decrease during 1980–2018. The majority of which was contributed to reductions of local emissions in Europe, and 8 %–9 % was induced by a decrease in emissions from Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. With the decreases in the fractional contribution of local emissions, aerosols transported from other source regions are increasingly important for air quality in Europe. During 1980–2018, the decrease in sulfate loading led to a warming effect of 2.0 W m –2 in Europe, with 12 % coming from changes in non-European sources, especially from North America and Russia–Belarus–Ukraine. According to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, contributions to the sulfate radiative forcing over Europe from both local European emissions and non-European emissions should decrease at a comparable rate in the next 3 decades, suggesting that future changes in non-European emissions are as important as European emissions for causing possible regional climate change associated with aerosols in Europe.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Prediction and Measurement of X-Ray Spectral and Intensity Distributions from Low Energy Electron Impact Sources
In-vacuum electron beam welding is a technology that NASA considered as a joining technique for manufacture of space structures. The interaction of energetic electrons with metal produces x-rays. The radiation exposure to astronauts performing the in-vacuum electron beam welding must be characterized and minimized to insure safe operating conditions. This investigation characterized the x-ray environment due to operation of an in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. NASA, in a joint venture with the Russian Space Agency, was scheduled to perform a series of welding in space experiments on board the United States Space Shuttle. This series of experiments was named the International Space Welding Experiment (ISWE). The hardware associated with the ISWE was leased to NASA, by the Paton Welding Institute (PWI) in Ukraine, for ground based welding experiments in preparation for flight. Two tests were scheduled, using the ISWE electron beam welding tool, to characterize the radiation exposure to an astronaut during the operation of the ISWE. These radiation exposure tests consisted of Thermoluminescence Dosimeters (TLD's) shielded with material currently used by astronauts during Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) and exposed to x-ray radiation generated by operation of an in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. This investigation was the first known application of TLD's to measure absorbed dose from x-rays of energy less than 10 KeV. The ISWE hardware was returned to Ukraine before the issue of adequate shielding for the astronauts was verified. Therefore, alternate experimental and analytical methods were developed to measure and predict the x-ray spectral and intensity distribution generated by electron impact with metal. These x-ray spectra were used to calculate the absorbed radiation dose to astronauts. These absorbed dose values were compared to TLD measurements obtained during actual operation of the in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. The calculated absorbed dose values were found to be in good agreement with the TLD values.
Edwards, David L.↗
Absorbed Dose Determination Using Experimental and Analytical Predictions of X-Ray Spectra
Electron beam welding in a vacuum is a technology that NASA is investigating as a joining technique for manufacture of space structures. This investigation characterizes the x-ray environment due to operation of an in-vacuum electron beam welding tool and provides recommendations for adequate shielding for astronauts performing the in-vacuum electron beam welding. NASA, in a joint venture with the Russian Space Agency, was scheduled to perform a series of welding in space experiments on board the U.S. Space Shuttle. This series of experiments was named the international space welding experiment (ISWE). The hardware associated with the ISWE was leased to NASA by the Paton Welding Institute (PWI) in Ukraine for ground-based welding experiments in preparation for flight. Two ground tests were scheduled, using the ISWE electron beam welding tool, to characterize the radiation exposure to an astronaut during the operation of the ISWE. These radiation exposure tests used thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLD's) shielded with material currently used by astronauts during extravehicular activities to measure the radiation dose. The TLD's were exposed to x-ray radiation generated by operation of the ISWE in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. This investigation was the first known application of TLD's to measure absorbed dose from x rays of energy less than 10 keV. The ISWE hardware was returned to Ukraine before the issue of adequate shielding for the astronauts was completely verified. Therefore, alternate experimental and analytical methods were developed to measure and predict the x-ray spectral and intensity distribution generated by ISWE electron beam impact with metal. These x-ray spectra were normalized to an equivalent ISWE exposure, then used to calculate the absorbed radiation dose to astronauts. These absorbed dose values were compared to TLD measurements obtained during actual operation of the ISWE in-vacuum electron beam welding tool. The calculated absorbed dose values were found to be in agreement with the measured TLD values.
Edwards, D. L.↗
Are Stronger North-Atlantic Southwesterlies the Forcing to the Late-Winter Warming in Europe?
We examine a possible mechanism leading to late-winter warming and thus to an early spring in Europe. From the NCEP Reanalysis, we extract for the years 1948-1999 ocean-surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, and air temperatures at the surface, T(sub s), and at the 500 mb level, T(sub 500), in late-winter and spring. T(sub s) is extracted at six European locations, all at 50.5 N, ranging in longitude from 1.9 E (northeastern France) to 26.2 E (Ukraine). To quantify the advection of maritime air into Europe, we evaluate for 3-pentad groups the Index I(sub na) of the southwesterlies at 45 N; 20 W: I(sub na) is the average wind speed at this point if the direction is from the quadrant 180-270 deg (when the direction is different, the contribution counts as zero). In late winter correlations C(sub it) between the Index I(sub na) and the temperature T(sub s) are substantial, up to the 0.6 level, in western Europe (but weaker correlations for Poland and Ukraine). C(sub it) drops sharply by mid-March, taking occasionally negative values subsequently. This drop in C(sub it) indicates that maritime air advection is no longer associated closely with the surface-air warming, the role of immolation becomes important, and thus the drop in C(sub it) marks the arrival of spring. Correlations C(sub i delta) between I(sub na) and our lapse-rate parameter delta, the difference between T(sub s) and T(sub 500), indicate that the flow of warm maritime-air from the North Atlantic into this 'corridor' at 50.5 N is predominantly at low tropospheric level. By computing the best linear fit to I(sub na) and T(sub s), the trends for the period 1948-1999 are evaluated. The trends are appreciable in the second half of February and the first half of March. Our 3-pentad analysis points to the interval from mid-February to mid-March as the end-of-winter period in which the southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic become stronger and the surface-air temperatures in Europe rise markedly, the lapse rate becomes steeper, and concurrently the longitudinal temperature gradient between the Somme (France) and the Oder (Germany/Poland border) is reduced by 0.8 C, that is, by 20% of its 1948 value. Our thesis, that the observed late-winter warming and the corollary advancement of spring in Europe resulted at least in part from stronger southwesterlies over the North Atlantic, merits further investigations.
Otterman, J.↗
Distributions of Orbital Elements for Meteoroids on Near-Parabolic Orbits According to Radar Observational Data
Some results of the International Heliophysical Year (IHY) Coordinated Investigation Program (CIP) number 65 Meteors in the Earth Atmosphere and Meteoroids in the Solar System are presented. The problem of hyperbolic and near-parabolic orbits is discussed. Some possibilities for the solution of this problem can be obtained from the radar observation of faint meteors. The limiting magnitude of the Kharkov, Ukraine, radar observation program in the 1970 s was +12, resulting in a very large number of meteors being detected. 250,000 orbits down to even fainter limiting magnitude were determined in the 1972-78 period in Kharkov (out of them 7,000 are hyperbolic). The hypothesis of hyperbolic meteors was confirmed. In some radar meteor observations 1 10% of meteors are hyperbolic meteors. Though the Advanced Meteor Orbit Radar (AMOR, New Zealand) and Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR, Canada) have accumulated millions of meteor orbits, there are difficulties in comparing the radar observational data obtained from these three sites (New Zealand, Canada, Kharkov). A new global program International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI) has begun in 2010 (http://www.iswi-secretariat.org). Today it is necessary to create the unified radar catalogue of nearparabolic and hyperbolic meteor orbits in the framework of the ISWI, or any other different way, in collaboration of Ukraine, Canada, New Zealand, the USA and, possibly, Japan. Involvement of the Virtual Meteor Observatory (Netherlands) and Meteor Data Centre (Slovakia) is desirable too. International unified radar catalogue of near-parabolic and hyperbolic meteor orbits will aid to a major advance in our understanding of the ecology of meteoroids within the Solar System and beyond.
Kolomiyets, S. V.↗
Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model
Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.
mixture model↗
Characterisation of Specimens from a Former Soviet Thorium Processing Facility to Support Site Remediation
The former Prydniprovski Chemical Plant (PChP) is a large ex-soviet nuclear materials processing site of roughly 260 hectares, located in central Ukraine. PcHP was in operation between 1948 and 1991 for the purposes of processing uranium and thorium ore into ore concentrate. During its operational lifetime, tens of millions of tonnes of radioactive waste was generated on the site. A consequence of these activities, coupled with the mismanagement of the resulting radioactive materials and by-products, is that approximately 45% of the southern part of the site has become radioactively contaminated. This area comprises some 100-200 buildings and structures, many of which are in a state of disrepair and dereliction. Around 20 of these buildings are heavily radioactively contaminated, with radiation levels from a few μSv/hr to a maximum of 4 mSv/hr reported. The European Commission is currently working with the Ukraine Ministry of Energy and Coal Use and the Nuclear Regulator to improve radiological safety and security at the site. In order for these remediation works to proceed, the site management needs to characterise the radioactive materials that are held there. As part of this activity, the team from the University of Bristol have undertaken a survey of one of the most heavily contaminated buildings, collecting a selection of in situ material samples. A suite of complimentary materials characterisation techniques (e.g. X-ray Fluorescence, Raman Spectroscopy, etc) have been deployed in order to determine the radionuclides and composition of the compounds present. Characterisation of these samples will allow the operators of the chemical plant to go forward with remediation works within the building.
07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage
In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016 - both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented - the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
CCE Case Study: Baltavia Substation Power Outage
In this case study, we will examine a fictional event broadly inspired by the real power outages in Ukraine that took place in December 2015 and December 2016—both the result of cyber-enabled sabotage. The actual events of 2015 and 2016 were well-documented—the adversaries in these attacks gained access to a few power companies’ corporate networks, pivoted to industrial control system (ICS) networks, and created widespread physical effects in the form of power outages.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Options For Large-Scale Installation of Individual Heat Substations Based on International Best Practices
The purpose of this report is to provide recommendations for actions Ukraine could take to implement large-scale installation of IHSs as part of comprehensive district heating reform. The report discusses the importance of IHS in the district heating sector, then presents several case studies of approaches that European countries have taken to facilitate large-scale IHS installation in multi-apartment buildings. These case studies focus on the ownership and financing of IHS, as there are different models for how this can be done (the DH company can make the investments and recover the costs through the tariff, or building residents can make the investments themselves). They also include details on the approval process and technical specifications, as these can add additional barriers and time to the installation process.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗