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At least 55 records · Page 3

Seismic DAS observations of a large underground chemical explosion in dry tuff

On 18 October 2023 a 16.3-ton TNT equivalent chemical explosion was detonated underground at the Nevada National Security Site, generating a seismic event with a magnitude of 1.7 (Meyers et al., 2024). The associated seismic wavefield was measured on a Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) array with slant range distances from 27 m – 1123 m. The first arriving phase traveled at an apparent velocity of about 2640 m s -1 from 27 m to 420 m slant range and about 2470 m s -1 from 505 m to 1123 m slant range according to the first arrival moveouts on the DAS data. The first arrival from the explosion temporarily saturated the cable from a slant range of 27 m – 186 m and 0.009 s to 0.084 s post detonation. From 186 m slant range to 420 m slant range, peak strain rates of 5.6 x 10 6 nm m -1 s -1 were observed for the first arrival phase. For the first arrival from 505 m slant range to 1123 m slant range, peak strain rates reduced to 8.0 x 104 nm m -1 s -1 . A comparison of the scaled accelerations computed from DAS, the geophone pairs, and the measurements of co-located accelerometer pairs show common agreement at the scaled ranges of the single point sensors. This study adds to the body of work reporting near-source DAS observations of the seismic wavefields generated by underground chemical explosions. These results indicate that near-source DAS observations can refine interpretations of phase identification from single-point sensor observations. Phase identification could be one mechanism that contributes scatter to single point seismic measurements which would confound the performance of empirical relationships for small explosions. Removing that mechanism may therefore reduce interstation variability and increase empirical relationship performance for small explosions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detecing Surface Change Created by an Underground Chemical Explosion Using Fully Polarimetric VideoSAR

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) flew its Facility for Advanced RF and Algorithm Development (FARAD) X-Band (9.6 GHz center frequency), fully-polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) in VideoSAR-mode to collect complex-valued SAR imagery before, during, and after the fifth and sixth Source Physics Experiment's (SPE-5 and SPE-6) underground explosion. The results from the fifth Source Physics Experiment (SPE-5) used single-polarimetric VideoSAR data while SPE-6 used single and fully-polarimetric VideoSAR data. We show that SAR can provide surface change products indicative of disturbances caused by the underground chemical explosions. These are surface coherence measures, Po1SAR change signatures, and differential interferometric SAR (InSAR) height change.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Predicting multiphase flow and tracer transport for an underground chemical explosive test

Detecting radionuclide gas seepage from clandestine underground nuclear tests is central to nonproliferation explosion monitoring research. Yet, early-time (<6 day) gas transport driven by the explosive pressure wave remains poorly constrained due to scarcity of field data. We simulate multi-phase gas transport in the vadose zone using pre-shot data from a recent chemical explosion in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, USA. Despite using a simplified 2D-radial model, predictions of tracer arrival matched observations within one order-of-magnitude. Our results show how transient blast forcing rapidly mobilizes gases from the cavity into surrounding rock – critical for optimizing sensor placement and test planning. This unique integration of field data and modeling represents a significant improvement in our ability to predict gas migration from underground explosions. More broadly, it offers insights into the coupled dynamics of pressure waves and contaminant transport in the vadose zone, with implications for monitoring and hazard assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

3D Moment Tensor Inversion of Underground Chemical Explosions from the Source Physics Experiments

Several physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain the generation of S-waves from underground explosions, such as asymmetries in the source, release of tectonic pre-stress, interactions with the free-surface, spall, and heterogeneities in the Earth. An accurate description of the explosion source processes is an important step towards understanding which of these plausible mechanisms are actively contributing to the generation of S-waves and under what conditions. In this study we explore the application of the seismic moment tensor source to model far-field, low frequency (up to 6 Hz) waveform data of over-buried chemical explosions from the Source Physics Experiment, with a focus on S-wave generation and amplitude predictions. We use an inverse waveform modeling approach to estimate the source properties of the chemical explosions, and compare solutions using different velocity models. 1D and 3D subsurface velocity models are used to characterize wave propagation between the source and receiver. We also performed analysis on wavefield simulations from physic-based explosion source modeling. The analyses show scattering and phase conversion from 3D heterogonies dominate the generation of far-field, S-wave energy observed in data, and that the variability in the recovered deviatoric component of the moment tensor source model are largely a result of inadequately accounting for 3D wave propagation effects in the inversion process.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurements of Argon-39 from locations near historic underground nuclear explosions

Measurement of radioactive gas seepage from an underground nuclear explosion is one of the primary methods to confirm whether an event was nuclear in nature. Radioactive noble gas indicators that are commonly targeted by such measurements (e.g. 133Xe, 37Ar) have half-lives of 35 days or less. Argon-39, an activation product similar to 37Ar, is produced by the interaction between neutrons and potassium in the surrounding geology and has a half-life of 269 years. Measurements taken at three sites near three historic underground nuclear test locations at the Nevada National Security Site have all shown highly elevated levels of 39Ar in subsurface air decades after the test events. Elevated levels of 39Ar (30-50 times background) were also detected in atmospheric air collected roughly 30 cm above ground level near two of these sites, and outside the entrance of the one tunnel site. These measurements demonstrate that 39Ar has the potential to be a long-term signature of an underground nuclear event which can be reliably detected at the surface or in the shallow subsurface. This radionuclide detection of an underground nuclear event decades after the event takes place is in contrast to the commonly held assumption that detecting underground nuclear events via radionuclides at the surface needs to be done in a matter of months. Depending upon what further studies show about the robustness of this signature in a variety of geological settings, it may in fact be easy to detect underground nuclear events at the surface for a very long time post-detonation.

Johnson, Christine M.↗

A comparison of long-term 37 Ar and 39 Ar transport and implications for 39 Ar as a persistent indicator of underground nuclear explosions

Measurements were first made in 2016 of legacy 39 Ar gas from the decades-old Barnwell underground nuclear explosion site within the Nevada National Security Site. This has raised the question of the ubiquity of the radionuclide 39 Ar following underground nuclear explosions in general locations. This article presents a high-level evaluation of the scientific case for using 39 Ar as a long-term indicator of underground nuclear explosions. Assessment is made based on a broad set of assumptions to reasonably estimate the persistence of 39 Ar in the subsurface environment following an explosion to establish potential detectability years to decades after the originating event.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A statistical approach to screening isotopic signatures in monitoring for underground nuclear explosions

The ability to differentiate between atmospheric radionuclide signatures from underground nuclear explosions (UNEs) and signals from other sources, such as medical isotope-production facilities and nuclear reactors, can be critical to the detection and monitoring of unannounced, low-yield nuclear events. Signatures having anomalously high amplitudes, compared to background levels, remain the best indicator in screening for a UNE. However, isotopic composition can further validate a suspected UNE signature, but separation from any atmospheric background composition is first necessary. To date, evaluating the challenges of performing this separation has typically involved comparing an observed background with a highly idealized deterministic model of radioxenon signature production by a UNE that does not consider the influence of post-detonation chemical/physical processes in the detonation cavity or the subsequent gas transport mechanisms that can also affect the isotopic composition of the detected gas signature. In addition, purely deterministic models, as previously employed, overlook the uncertainty inherent in estimating critical parameters characterizing the UNE and its detonation environment. In this paper, we create detailed, multi-parameter models of radionuclide evolution using the widely accepted England and Rider post-detonation radionuclide decay-chain network coupled to detailed models simulating physical production and transport processes affecting the gas signature. Because these models are governed by uncertain parameters including barometric fluctuations, realistic ranges of variation for each of the parameters influencing isotopic composition are then defined. A Latin-Hypercube sampling approach is used to obtain a random distribution of isotopic production and gas transport results associated with a given value of each parameter. We apply these results to background histories of two stations, one providing 4-isotope background measurements and the other providing two-isotope measurements associated with the 2013 DPRK announced UNE.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Gas transport across the low-permeability containment zone of an underground nuclear explosion

Understanding the nature of gas transport from an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) is required for evaluating the ability to detect and interpret either on-site or atmospheric signatures of noble gas radionuclides resulting from the event. We performed a pressure and chemical tracer monitoring experiment at the site of an underground nuclear test that occurred in a tunnel in Nevada to evaluate the possible modes of gas transport to the surface. The site represents a very well-contained, low gaspermeability end member for past UNEs at the Nevada National Security Site. However, there is very strong evidence that gases detected at the surface during a period of low atmospheric pressure resulted from fractures of extremely small aperture that are essentially invisible. Our analyses also suggest that gases would have easily migrated to the top of the high-permeability collapse zone following the detonation minimizing the final distance required for migration along these narrow fractures to the surface. This indicates that on-site detection of gases emanating from such low-permeability sites is feasible while standoff detection of atmospheric plumes may also be possible at local distances for sufficiently high fracture densities. Finally, our results show that gas leakage into the atmosphere also occurred directly from the tunnel portal and should be monitored in future tunnel gas sampling experiments for the purpose of better understanding relative contributions to detection of radioxenon releases via both fracture network and tunnel transport.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Evaluation of several relevant fractionation processes as possible explanation for radioxenon isotopic activity ratios in samples taken near underground nuclear explosions in shafts and tunnels

Gas samples taken from two historic underground nuclear tests done in 1989 at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), formerly the Nevada Test Site (NTS), were examined to determine how xenon isotopes fractionate because of early-time cavity processes, transport through the rock, or dispersal through tunnels. Xenon isotopes are currently being used to distinguish civilian sources of xenon in the atmosphere from sources associated with underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). The two nuclear tests included (1) BARNWELL, a test conducted in a vertical shaft approximately 600 m below ground surface at Pahute Mesa, and (2) DISKO ELM, a horizontal line-of-sight test done in P-tunnel approximately 261 m below the surface of Aqueduct Mesa. Numerical flow and transport models developed for the two sites had mixed success when attempting to match the observed xenon isotope ratios. At the BARNWELL site, the simulated xenon isotope ratios were consistent with measurements from the chimney and ground surface and appeared to have been affected primarily by fractionation during subsurface transport. At the DISKO ELM site, samples taken from two elevations in the chimney failed to show the degree of fractionation predicted by the models during transport and did not show evidence for significant fractionation due to early-time condensation of refractory xenon-precursor radionuclides into the melt glass. Gas samples taken from the adjacent tunnels in the days following the test showed mixed evidence for early-time separation of xenon isotopes from their iodine precursors.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Investigating Vegetation Responses to Underground Nuclear Explosions Through Integrated Analyses

Vegetation has the potential to respond to underground nuclear explosions, yet these links have not been fully explored. Given the lack of previously described signatures, the changes in vegetation are possibly subtle. The integration of multiple different data streams is potentially a useful approach to improve signal detection. Here, we investigate whether semi-arid vegetation growth patterns responded to eight legacy underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada, USA. We tested for spatial and temporal changes in vegetation cover, tree growth patterns, and tree leaf spectral properties using ground-based measurements, including those from tree-rings and hyperspectral surface vegetation reflectance, as well as space-based measurements of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from Landsat. Multiple data streams suggest a localized (<1.2 km) spatial pattern whereby tree growth is enhanced closer to the source of the underground test relative to sites further away. We also observed a more regional (>1.2–9 km) pattern whereby tree growth is suppressed coincident with a drought beginning 1 year before the 1989 tests, but continuing in the 5 years following the tests, which is anomalous relative to what is expected based on the response of tree growth to previous droughts. furthermore, quantification of the relative effects of the tests on vegetation remains a challenge due to the coincident drought and the potential for other disturbances to have impacted tree growth at this time, but the integration of these data reveals a more nuanced growth response than any other one data set indicates alone.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Comparison of Surface Phenomena Created by Underground Chemical Explosions in Dry Alluvium and Granite Geology From Fully Polarimetric VideoSAR Data

Phase I of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series involved six underground chemical explosions, all of which were conducted at the same experimental pad. Research from the sixth explosion of the series (SPE-6) demonstrated that polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) is a viable technology for monitoring an underground chemical explosion when the geologic structure is Cretaceous granitic intrusive. It was shown that a durable signal is measurable by the H/A/α polarimetric decomposition parameters. After the SPE-6 experiment, the SPE program moved to the Phase II location, which is composed of dry alluvium geology (DAG). The loss of wavefront energy is greater through dry alluvium than through granite. In this article, we compare the SPE-6 analysis to the second DAG (DAG-2) experiment. We hypothesize that despite the geology at the DAG site being more challenging than at the Phase I location, combined with the DAG-2 experiment having a 3.37 times deeper scaled depth of burial than the SPE-6, a durable nonprompt signal is still measurable by a PolSAR sensor. We compare the PolSAR time-series measures from videoSAR frames, from the SPE-6 and DAG-2 experiments, with accelerometer data. We show which PolSAR measures are invariant to the two types of geology and which are geology dependent. We compare a coherent change detection (CCD) map from the DAG-2 experiment with the data from a fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensor to show the connection between the spatial extent of coherence loss in CCD maps and spallation caused by the explosion. Finally, we also analyze the spatial extent of the PolSAR measures from both explosions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Discriminating Underground Nuclear Explosions Leading To Late-Time Radionuclide Gas Seeps

Utilizing historical data from the U.S. nuclear test program and freely available barometric pressure data, we performed an analytical barometric-pumping efficiency analysis to determine factors resulting in late-time radionuclide gas seeps from underground nuclear explosions. In this work, we considered 16 underground nuclear explosions with similar geology and test setup, of which five resulted in the measurement of late-time radionuclide gas concentrations at the ground surface. Additionally, the factors we considered include barometric frequency and amplitude, depth of burial, air-filled porosity, intact-rock permeability, fracture aperture, and fracture spacing. The analysis indicates that the best discriminators of late-time radionuclide gas seeps for these explosions are barometric frequency and amplitude and air-filled porosity. While geologic information on fracture aperture and spacing is not available for these explosions, the sensitivity of barometric-pumping efficiency to fracture aperture indicates that it would likely also be a good discriminator.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Yearly report for the period Jan. 2018 – Jan. 2019 IC Project: w17_unedetection - “Simulation of underground nuclear explosions using the combined finite discrete element method” and “Fracture Formation and Permeability Evolution at in situ Pressure, Temperature and Stress Conditions”

Understanding the underlying physical processes associated with an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) can help with detection and identification of a suspected event. The Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment (UNESE) is a collaborative effort between national laboratories aimed towards improving our understanding of physical and radiochemical signatures associated with a UNE. One primary objective of this effort is to perform hydrodynamic modeling of a UNE, with the purpose of estimating the extent of damage caused by such an event. Estimating the damage associated with an event is important for: a) detection of possible physical signatures at the surface of the earth such as fractures, spallation, and cratering and (b) damage to subsurface structures such as tunnels. Additionally, the damage produced by the hydrodynamic models play can be used to inform subsurface flow and transport models. The Combined Finite-Discrete Element Method (FDEM), implemented as an in-house code known as HOSS (Hybrid Optimization Software Suite), is used to model the damage associated with a UNE in various geological settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Remote sensing volatile elements for new signatures from underground nuclear explosions

The detection of radioactive noble gas isotopes is one of the key tools in detecting underground nuclear explosions but other volatile elemental species may also migrate to the surface that have historically been overlooked. To investigate this possibility we have been studying which elements are most readily volatilized into air from solid materials (rocks, concrete, glass etc.) following short duration (60-120 sec) spot heating spanning a wide temperature range (100-2000°C). The widest possible range of elements (Li-U) were monitored during the experiments that produced some unexpected results with regards to the apparent atmospheric persistence of some volatilized elements long after heating had ceased and the sample had returned to room temperature. Results highlighting elemental volatility as a function of temperature from different materials will be presented along with examples illustrating the extended periods over which some elements remain detectable by real time atmospheric sampling.

Underground Nuclear Explosions, Volatile Elements,↗

Consideration of impact of atmospheric intrusion in subsurface sampling for investigation of suspected underground nuclear explosions

Radioactive noble gases radioxenon and radioargon constitute the primary smoking gun of an underground nuclear explosion. The aim of subsurface sampling of soil gas as part of an on-site inspection (OSI) is to search for evidence of a suspected underground nuclear event. It has been hypothesized that atmospheric gas can disturb soil gas concentrations and therefore potentially add to problems in civilian source discrimination verifying treaty compliance under the comprehensive nuclear-test-ban treaty. Furthermore, this work describes a study of intrusion of atmospheric air into the subsurface and its potential impact on an OSI using results of simulations from the underground transport of environmental xenon (UTEX) model.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

The Observed Inefficiency of Explosions to Produce Large Aftershocks: Båth’s Law for Explosions is 2.5

Underground explosions are observed to produce fewer and smaller aftershocks than similar size earthquakes. The seismic magnitude difference $Δm_x$ between an explosion and its largest aftershock is an expression of Båth’s law for explosions. Based on an analysis of a compilation of aftershock studies from Soviet testing at the Semipalatinsk test site in Kazakhstan and observations from American testing at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), here we find that the average magnitude difference for explosions $\overline{Δm_x}$ is about 2.5. Based on the NNSS data, two standard deviations of $Δm_x$ is about 1.5. In all the cases studied, from ton to megaton yield, from shallow to overburied depth, and chemical or nuclear source, no explosion aftershock has been larger than the explosion that preceded it. In fact, the two events at the NNSS with the largest aftershock magnitudes relative to the explosion are associated with the collapse of the cavity created by the explosion. This is similar to observations from North Korean testing at the Punggye-ri Test Site, where the largest seismic event following the test is attributed to the collapse after the 2017 explosion and is from 0.8 to 2 magnitude units less than the mainshock.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Complex surface topographic changes from explosive experiments at the Dry Alluvium Geology site, southern Nevada, United States

Understanding the surface topographic change that results from underground explosions is important for global security. Current techniques to relate the surface change to underground explosion characteristics usually involve assuming the earth has homogenous properties, leading to highly variable interpretations. Here we use an unoccupied aerial platform and a digital single lens reflex camera along with 200+ ground control points surveyed with a real-time kinematic global navigation satellite system to measure the surface topographic change resulting from two underground explosions at the Dry Alluvium Geology site in Yucca Flat, Nevada National Security Site, southern Nevada, United States. We find areas of 5–7 cm of subsidence that are not directly above the explosion source but rather 200–300 m away. For experiment DAG2, this zone is located south and west of the explosion, while for DAG4, there is a zone of subsidence located northeast of the explosion. In addition, late-time measurements show as much as 5 cm of horizontal change without measurable associated vertical change in the weeks following DAG4 but not DAG2. These indicate that the deformation resulting from underground chemical explosions can be very complex and bear little to no resemblance to predictions using half-space models. It is likely the tectonic environment plays a significant role in controlling the surface change, but the details are not fully understood.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗