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At least 55 records · Page 3

Bayesian Estimation of Earth’s Undiscovered Mineralogical Diversity Using Noninformative Priors

Recently, statistical distributions have been explored to provide estimates of the mineralogical diversity of Earth, and Earth-like planets. In this paper, a Bayesian approach is introduced to estimate Earth’s undiscovered mineralogical diversity. Samples are generated from a posterior distribution of the model parameters using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations such that estimates and inference are directly obtained. It was previously shown that the mineral species frequency distribution conforms to a generalized inverse Gauss–Poisson (GIGP) large number of rare events model. Even though the model fit was good, the population size estimate obtained by using this model was found to be unreasonably low by mineralogists. In this paper, several zero-truncated, mixed Poisson distributions are fitted and compared, where the Poisson-lognormal distribution is found to provide the best fit. Subsequently, the population size estimates obtained by Bayesian methods are compared to the empirical Bayes estimates. Species accumulation curves are constructed and employed to estimate the population size as a function of sampling size. Finally, the relative abundances, and hence the occurrence probabilities of species in a random sample, are calculated numerically for all mineral species in Earth’s crust using the Poisson-lognormal distribution. These calculations are connected and compared to the calculations obtained in a previous paper using the GIGP model for which mineralogical criteria of an Earth-like planet were given.

Bayesian statistics↗

Crystal truncation rods from miscut surfaces with alternating terminations

Miscut surfaces of layered crystals can exhibit a stair-like sequence of terraces having periodic variation in their atomic structure. For hexagonal close-packed and related crystal structures with an αβαβ stacking sequence, there have been long-standing questions regarding how the differences in adatom attachment kinetics at the steps separating the terraces affect the fractional coverage of α vs. β termination during crystal growth. To demonstrate how surface X-ray scattering can help address these questions, we develop a general theory for the intensity distributions along crystal truncation rods (CTRs) for miscut surfaces with a combination of two terminations. We consider half-unit-cell-height steps, and variation of the coverages of the terraces above each step. Example calculations are presented for the GaN (0001) surface with various reconstructions. These show which CTR positions are most sensitive to the fractional coverage of the two terminations. We compare the CTR profiles for exactly oriented surfaces to those for vicinal surfaces having a small miscut angle, and investigate the circumstances under which the CTR profile for an exactly oriented surface is equal to the sum of the intensities of the corresponding family of CTRs for a miscut surface.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

The propagation of ultraheavy cosmic ray nuclei

The propagation of ultraheavy cosmic ray nuclei (Z greater than 30) has been studied using a model based on the leaky-box formalism. This model has been used to examine the possible composition of the source, the path length distribution, and the mean escape length of the confinement region. Various abundance ratios have been found that have a sensitive dependence on one or more of these factors. Comparison of the theoretical values of these ratios with published data suggests that the source composition is similar to that of solar system matter, but that in the Pt-Pb region, enrichment in material produced by the r-process cannot be ruled out. Data for the secondary-to-primary ratio (Ru-44 - Cd-48)/(Sn-50 - Ba-56) show the presence of significantly more secondaries than are predicted, even when a truncated path length distribution is used in the model.

Brewster, N. R.↗

Modal analysis and control of flexible manipulator arms

The possibility of modeling and controlling flexible manipulator arms was examined. A modal approach was used for obtaining the mathematical model and control techniques. The arm model was represented mathematically by a state space description defined in terms of joint angles and mode amplitudes obtained from truncation on the distributed systems, and included the motion of a two link two joint arm. Three basic techniques were used for controlling the system: pole allocation with gains obtained from the rigid system with interjoint feedbacks, Simon-Mitter algorithm for pole allocation, and sensitivity analysis with respect to parameter variations. An improvement in arm bandwidth was obtained. Optimization of some geometric parameters was undertaken to maximize bandwidth for various payload sizes and programmed tasks. The controlled system is examined under constant gains and using the nonlinear model for simulations following a time varying state trajectory.

Neto, O. M.↗

Collective plasma effects associated with the continuous injection model of solar flare particle streams

A modified continuous injection model for impulsive solar flares that includes self-consistent plasma nonlinearities based on the concept of marginal stability is presented. A quasi-stationary state is established, composed of a hot truncated electron Maxwellian distribution confined by acoustic turbulence on the top of the loop and energetic electron beams precipitating in the chromosphere. It is shown that the radiation properties of the model are in accordance with observations.

Vlahos, L.↗

The source abundances of galactic cosmic rays

The galactic cosmic ray source abundances have been determined from two complete datasets, one at low and the other at high energy. For both exponential and truncated exponential pathlength distributions (PLD), the two sets of source abundances show significant differences for the primary elements, i.e., the Fe/O ratio. An energy dependent PLD reduces but does not eliminate the discrepancy, and this may indicate an energy dependence in the source composition. New source abundances for Na, P, Cl, Ca, and Mn are derived.

Dwyer, R. D.↗

Multigroup Scattering in Monte Carlo Radiation Transport Codes [Slides]

Legendre truncations to multigroup scattering distributions are not amenable to Monte Carlo sampling due to negative values. We have implemented two moment-preserving methods in MGMC that capture the shape of the truncation, are non-negative over [-1, 1], and can be efficiently sampled on CPUs and GPUs. MGMC can now simulate neutrons with anisotropic scattering mechanics and MGMC shows good agreement with LANL production codes PARTISN.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Wing/body interference flow investigation

The concept of using parametric bicubic patch surface definitions with bilinear vorticity or biquadratic doublet distributions was tested by modeling the vortex sheet and predicting its shape numerically in the vicinity of the wing. For the purpose of computing induced velocities, it was shown that higher order of vorticity would not improve the truncation error. The bilinear distribution, used to model the tip vorticity, was satisfactory but gave rise to some difficulty. The bicubic geometric surface representation proved very suitable for curved surfaces such as the rolled-up vortex sheet, with the surface fit scheme failing only for complex wings, far downstream beyond the region of concern.

Vogel, J. M.↗

Appendage modal coordinate truncation criteria in hybrid coordinate dynamic analysis

The paper examines the validity of the assumption that certain appendage-distributed (modal) coordinates can be truncated from a system model without unacceptable degradation of fidelity in hybrid coordinate dynamic analysis for attitude control of spacecraft with flexible appendages. Alternative truncation criteria are proposed and their interrelationships defined. Particular attention is given to truncation criteria based on eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and controllability and observability. No definitive resolution of the problem is advanced, and exhaustive study is required to obtain ultimate truncation criteria.

Likins, P.↗

The cosmic ray source composition

The cosmic ray source composition is shown to be related to the observed cosmic ray abundances by a set of linear equations which are valid for either ad hoc pathlength distributions or quantitative solutions to Galactic propagation models. These relations can be used to propagate abundances from the source or to the source, and the method described here allows a simple propagation of abundance uncertainties. A simultaneous analysis of B/C and (21-25)Fe indicates a need for truncation of the pathlength distribution.

Margolis, S. H.↗

Drop Size Distribution Measurements Supporting the NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission: Infrastructure and Preliminary Results

Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) retrieval algorithm validation requires datasets that characterize the 4-D structure, variability, and correlation properties of hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSD) and accumulations over satellite fields of view (5 -- 50 km). Key to this process is the combined use of disdrometer and polarimetric radar platforms. Here the disdrometer measurements serve as a reference for up-scaling dual-polarimetric radar observations of the PSD to the much larger volumetric sampling domain of the radar. The PSD observations thus derived provide a much larger data set for assessing DSD variability, and satellite-based precipitation retrieval algorithm assumptions, in all three spatial dimensions for a range of storm types and seasons. As one component of this effort, the GPM Ground Validation program recently acquired five 3rd generation 2D Video disdrometers as part of its Disdrometer and Radar Observations of Precipitation Facility (DROP), currently hosted in northern Alabama by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center and the University of Alabama in Huntsville. These next-generation 2DVDs were operated and evaluated in different phases of data collection under the scanning domain of the UAH ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. During this period approximately 7500 minutes of PSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSDs were then used as input to T-matrix code for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. The combined dataset was then analyzed with two basic objectives in mind: 1) the investigation of seasonal variability in the rain PSD parameters as observed by the 2DVDs; 2) the use of combined polarimetric moments and observed gamma distribution parameters in a functional form to retrieve PSD parameters in 4-D using the ARMOR radar for precipitation occurring in different seasons and for different rain system types. Preliminary results suggest that seasonal variations in the DSD parameters do occur, but are most pronounced when comparing tropical PSDs to either winter or summer convective precipitation. For example the previously documented shift to relatively smaller drop diameters in higher number concentrations for equivalent rain rate bins was observed in tropical storm rainbands occurring over Huntsville. On a more inter seasonal basis empirical fits between parameters such as D0 and ZDR do not appear to exhibit robust seasonal biases- i.e., one fit seems to work for all seasons within acceptable standard error (O[10%]) for estimates of D0. In polarimetric retrievals of the vertical variability in PSD (rain layer) for a tropical rainband we find that the Do varies with height when partitioned by specified precipitation categories (e.g., convective or stratiform, heavy and light stratiform etc.) but this variation is of order 10-20% and is smaller than the difference in D0 observed between the basic delineation of convective and stratiform precipitation types. Currently we are expanding our analysis of the vertical structure of the PSD to include several seasonally and/or dynamically-different storm system types (e.g., winter convection and stratiform events; summer mid-latitude convective etc.) sampled by ARMOR. The study will present the results of our combined analyses.

Petersen, Walter A.↗

Use of Truncated Flapped Airfoils for Impingement and Icing Tests of Full-Scale Leading-Edge Sections

In an effort to increase the operational range of existing small icing tunnels, the use of truncated airfoil sections has been suggested. With truncated airfoils, large-scale or even full-scale wing-icing-protection systems could be evaluated. Therefore, experimental studies were conducted in the NACA Lewis laboratory icing 'tunnel with an NACA 651-212 airfoil section to determine the effect of truncating the airfoil chord on velocity distribution and impingement characteristics. A 6-foot-chord airfoil was cut successively at the 50- and 30-percent-chord stations to produce the truncated airfoil sections, which were equipped with trailing-edge flaps that were used to alter the flow field about the truncated sections. The study was conducted at geometric angles of attack of 00 and 40, an airspeed of about 156 knots, and volume-median droplet sizes of 11.5 and 18.6 microns. A dye-tracer technique was used in the impingement studies. With the trailing-edge flap on the truncated airfoil deflected so that the local velocity distribution in the impingement region was substantially the same as that for the full-chord airfoil, the local impingement rates and the limits of impingement for the truncated and full-chord airfoils were the same. In general, truncating the airfoils with flaps undeflected resulted in a subs'tantially altered velocity distribution and local impingement rates compared with those of the full-chord airfoil. The use of flapped truncated airfoils may permit impingement and icing studies to be conducted with full-scale leading-edge sections, ranging in size from tip to root sections.

vonGlahn, Uwe H.↗

Sensitivity of C-Band Polarimetric Radar-Based Drop Size Distribution Measurements to Maximum Diameter Assumptions

The estimation of rain drop size distribution (DSD) parameters from polarimetric radar observations is accomplished by first establishing a relationship between differential reflectivity (Z(sub dr)) and the central tendency of the rain DSD such as the median volume diameter (D0). Since Z(sub dr) does not provide a direct measurement of DSD central tendency, the relationship is typically derived empirically from rain drop and radar scattering models (e.g., D0 = F[Z (sub dr)] ). Past studies have explored the general sensitivity of these models to temperature, radar wavelength, the drop shape vs. size relation, and DSD variability. Much progress has been made in recent years in measuring the drop shape and DSD variability using surface-based disdrometers, such as the 2D Video disdrometer (2DVD), and documenting their impact on polarimetric radar techniques. In addition to measuring drop shape, another advantage of the 2DVD over earlier impact type disdrometers is its ability to resolve drop diameters in excess of 5 mm. Despite this improvement, the sampling limitations of a disdrometer, including the 2DVD, make it very difficult to adequately measure the maximum drop diameter (D(sub max)) present in a typical radar resolution volume. As a result, D(sub max) must still be assumed in the drop and radar models from which D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] is derived. Since scattering resonance at C-band wavelengths begins to occur in drop diameters larger than about 5 mm, modeled C-band radar parameters, particularly Z(sub dr), can be sensitive to D(sub max) assumptions. In past C-band radar studies, a variety of D(sub max) assumptions have been made, including the actual disdrometer estimate of D(sub max) during a typical sampling period (e.g., 1-3 minutes), D(sub max) = C (where C is constant at values from 5 to 8 mm), and D(sub max) = M*D0 (where the constant multiple, M, is fixed at values ranging from 2.5 to 3.5). The overall objective of this NASA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM/PMM Science Team)-funded study is to document the sensitivity of DSD measurements, including estimates of D0, from C-band Z(sub dr) and reflectivity to this range of D(sub max) assumptions. For this study, GPM Ground Validation 2DVD's were operated under the scanning domain of the UAHuntsville ARMOR C-band dual-polarimetric radar. Approximately 7500 minutes of DSD data were collected and processed to create gamma size distribution parameters using a truncated method of moments approach. After creating the gamma parameter datasets the DSD's were then used as input to a T-matrix model for computation of polarimetric radar moments at C-band. All necessary model parameterizations, such as temperature, drop shape, and drop fall mode, were fixed at typically accepted values while the D(sub max) assumption was allowed to vary in sensitivity tests. By hypothesizing a DSD model with D(sub max) (fit) from which the empirical fit to D0 = F[Z(sub dr)] was derived via non-linear least squares regression and a separate reference DSD model with D(sub max) (truth), bias and standard error in D0 retrievals were estimated in the presence of Z(sub dr) measurement error and hypothesized mismatch in D(sub max) assumptions. Although the normalized standard error for D0 = F[Z(sub dr)r] can increase slightly (as much as from 11% to 16% for all 7500 DSDs) when the D(sub max) (fit) does not match D(sub max) (truth), the primary impact of uncertainty in D(sub max) is a potential increase in normalized bias error in D0 (from 0% to as much as 10% over all 7500 DSDs, depending on the extent of the mismatch between D(sub max) (fit) and D(sub max) (truth)). For DSDs characterized by large Z(sub dr) (Z(sub dr) > 1.5 to 2.0 dB), the normalized bias error for D0 estimation at C-band is sometimes unacceptably large (> 10%), again depending on the extent of the hypothesized D(sub max) mismatch. Modeled errors in D0 retrievals from Z(sub dr) at C-band are demonstrated in detail and comparedo similar modeled retrieval errors at S-band and X-band where the sensitivity to D(sub max) is expected to be less. The impact of D(sub max) assumptions to the retrieval of other DSD parameters such as Nw, the liquid water content normalized intercept parameter, are also explored. Likely implications for DSD retrievals using C-band polarimetric radar for GPM are assessed by considering current community knowledge regarding D(sub max) and quantifying the statistical distribution of Z(sub dr) from ARMOR over a large variety of meteorological conditions. Based on these results and the prevalence of C-band polarimetric radars worldwide, a call for more emphasis on constraining our observational estimate of D(sub max) within a typical radar resolution volume is made

Carey, Lawrence D.↗

Fiducial $q_T$ resummation of color-singlet processes at N$^3$LL+NNLO

We present a framework for $q_T$ resummation at N 3 LL+NNLO accuracy for arbitrary color-singlet processes based on a factorization theorem in SCET. Our implementation CuTe-MCFM is fully differential in the Born kinematics and matches to large-$q_T$ fixed-order predictions at relative order $α^2_s$. It provides an efficient way to estimate uncertainties from fixed-order truncation, resummation, and parton distribution functions. In addition to W ± , Z and H production, also the diboson processes $\gamma\gamma$, Z$\gamma$, ZH and W ± H are available, including decays. We discuss and exemplify the framework with several direct comparisons to experimental measurements as well as inclusive benchmark results. In particular, we present novel results for $\gamma\gamma$ and Z$\gamma\gamma$ at N 3 LL+NNLO and discuss in detail the power corrections induced by photon isolation requirements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of artificial topological changes on flow and transport through fractured media due to mesh resolution

Abstract We performed a set of numerical simulations to characterize the interplay of fracture network topology, upscaling, and mesh refinement on flow and transport properties in fractured porous media. We generated a set of generic three-dimensional discrete fracture networks at various densities, where the radii of the fractures were sampled from a truncated power-law distribution, and whose parameters were loosely based on field site characterizations. We also considered five network densities, which were defined using a dimensionless version of density based on percolation theory. Once the networks were generated, we upscaled them into a single continuum model using the upscaled discrete fracture matrix model presented by Sweeney et al. (2019). We considered steady, isothermal pressure-driven flow through each domain and then simulated conservative, decaying, and adsorbing tracers using a pulse injection into the domain. For each simulation, we calculated the effective permeability and solute breakthrough curves as quantities of interest to compare between network realizations. We found that selecting a mesh resolution such that the global topology of the upscaled mesh matches the fracture network is essential. If the upscaled mesh has a connected pathway of fracture (higher permeability) cells but the fracture network does not, then the estimates for effective permeability and solute breakthrough will be incorrect. False connections cannot be eliminated entirely, but they can be managed by choosing appropriate mesh resolution and refinement for a given network. Adopting octree meshing to obtain sufficient levels of refinement leads to fewer computational cells (up to a 90% reduction in overall cell count) when compared to using a uniform resolution grid and can result in a more accurate continuum representation of the true fracture network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Comparison of Linear Solvers for Resolving Flow in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks

We compare various methods for resolving steady flow within three-dimensional discrete fracture networks, including direct methods, Krylov subspace methods with and without preconditioning, and multi-grid methods. We compared the performance of the methods based on compute times and scaling of the solution as a function of the number of grid nodes and log-variance of the hydraulic aperture. The methods are applied to three test cases: (a) variable density of networks with a truncated power-law distribution of fracture lengths, (b) a fixed network composed of monodisperse fracture sizes but varied permeability/aperture heterogeneity, (c) and a network based on field site in Nevada, US. We chose these cases to allow us to study the impact of the mesh size and flow properties, as well as to demonstrate our conclusions on a large-scale, realistic problem (more than 40 million mesh nodes). A direct solution using Cholesky factorization outperformed other methods for every example but was closely followed in performance by some algebraic multigrid (AMG) preconditioned Krylov subspace methods. Among the Krylov methods, conjugate gradients (CG) with an AMG preconditioner performs the best. Generally, Cholesky factorization is recommended, but CG with an AMG preconditioner may be suitable for very large problems beyond 40 million nodes where the entire linear system cannot reside in memory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamical instability of collapsed dark matter halos

A self-interacting dark matter halo can experience gravothermal collapse, resulting in a central core with an ultrahigh density. It can further contract and collapse into a black hole, a mechanism proposed to explain the origin of supermassive black holes. We study dynamical instability of the core in general relativity. Here we use a truncated Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution to model the dark matter distribution and solve the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equation. For given model parameters, we obtain a series of equilibrium configurations and examine their dynamical instability based on considerations of total energy, binding energy, fractional binding energy, and adiabatic index. Our numerical results indicate that the core can collapse into a black hole when the fractional binding energy reaches 0.035 with a central gravitational redshift of 0.5. We further show for the instability to occur in the classical regime, the boundary temperature of the core should be at least 10% of the mass of dark matter particles; for a 10 9 M ⊙ seed black hole, the particle mass needs to be larger than a few keV. These results can be used to constrain different collapse models, in particular, those with dissipative dark matter interactions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗