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NASA NTRS2012

Statistical Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin, 1945-2010

Examined are statistical aspects of the 715 tropical cyclones that formed in the North Atlantic basin during the interval 1945-2010. These 715 tropical cyclones include 306 storms that attained only tropical storm strength, 409 hurricanes, 179 major or intense hurricanes, and 108 storms that struck the US coastline as hurricanes. Comparisons made using 10-year moving average (10-yma) values between tropical cyclone parametric values and surface air and ENSO-related parametric values indicate strong correlations to exist, in particular, against the Armagh Observatory (Northern Ireland) surface air temperature, the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) index, the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) index, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, in addition to the Oceanic Ni o index (ONI) and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) indices. Also examined are the decadal variations of the tropical cyclone parametric values and a look ahead towards the 2012 hurricane season and beyond.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric dynamics associated with tropical cyclones as inferred from total ozone measurements

Total ozone associated with western Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones at different developmental stages is analyzed in an attempt to monitor the lower-stratospheric and upper-tropospheric mass adjustment processes associated with the tropical cyclone and its environment. The analysis is based on total ozone measurements obtained using the total ozone mapping spectrometer onboard the Nimbus-7. In order to study the total ozone within and surrounding the tropical cyclone, the storm is divided into four regions: the environment, the moat, the central dense overcast, and the eye. Tropical Cyclone Allen is used to discuss the total ozone features that are typical of other western Atlantic and Pacific storms. Western Pacific storms are emphasized in the discussion of the eye total ozone distribution.

Rodgers, Edward↗
NASA NTRS2011

APR-2 Tropical Cyclone Observations

The Second Generation Airborne Precipitation Radar (APR-2) participated in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in August and September of 2010, collecting a large volume of data in several tropical systems, including Hurricanes Earl and Karl. Additional measurements of tropical cyclone have been made by APR-2 in experiments prior to GRIP (namely, CAMEX-4, NAMMA, TC4); Table 1 lists all the APR-2 tropical cyclone observations. The APR-2 observations consist of the vertical structure of rain reflectivity at 13.4 and 35.6 GHz, and at both co-polarization and crosspolarization, as well as vertical Doppler measurements and crosswind measurements. APR-2 normally flies on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, as in GRIP, collecting data with a downward looking, cross-track scanning geometry. The scan limits are 25 degrees on either side of the aircraft, resulting in a roughly 10-km swath, depending on the aircraft altitude. Details of the APR-2 observation geometry and performance can be found in Sadowy et al. (2003).The multiparameter nature of the APR-2 measurements makes the collection of tropical cyclone measurements valuable for detailed studies of the processes, microphysics and dynamics of tropical cyclones, as well as weaker systems that are associated with tropical cyclone formation. In this paper, we give a brief overview of how the APR-2 data are processed. We also discuss use of the APR-2 cross-track winds to estimate various quantities of interest in in studies of storm intensification. Finally, we show examples of the standard products and derived information.

radar↗
NASA NTRS1984

On the potential use of satellite sounder data in forecasting tropical cyclone motion

Although many prediction schemes are available, tropical cyclone track forecast errors are still unacceptably large. A primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones and their environments are poorly observed by conventional data networks. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous observations near these storms. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer (SCAMS) on board the Nimbus-6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from persistence track forecasts. Based on multiple correlation coefficients it appears that upper-level (250-100 mb) temperatures contain significant information about the right-angle error of the persistence forecast location. Temperatures from the 1000-500 mb layer seemed to contain little forecast information. Implications of these results for further work are offered.

Kidder, S. Q.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Combining New Satellite Tools and Models to Examine Role of Mesoscale Interactions in Formation and Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

The objective of this research is to start filling the mesoscale gap to improve understanding and probability forecasts of formation and intensity variations of tropical cyclones. Sampling by aircraft equipped to measure mesoscale processes is expensive, thus confined in place and time. Hence we turn to satellite products. This paper reports preliminary results of a tropical cyclone genesis and early intensification study. We explore the role of mesoscale processes using a combination of products from TRMM, QuikSCAT, AMSU, also SSM/I, geosynchronous and model output. Major emphasis is on the role of merging mesoscale vortices. These initially form in midlevel stratiform cloud. When they form in regions of lowered Rossby radius of deformation (strong background vorticity) the mesoscale vortices can last long enough to interact and merge, with the weaker vortex losing vorticity to the stronger, which can then extend down to the surface. In an earlier cyclongenesis case (Oliver 1993) off Australia, intense deep convection occurred when the stronger vortex reached the surface; this vortex became the storm center while the weaker vortex was sheared out as the major rainband. In our study of Atlantic tropical cyclones originating from African waves, we use QuikSCAT to examine surface winds in the African monsoon trough and in the vortices which move westward off the coast, which may or may not undergo genesis (defined by NHC as reaching TD, or tropical depression, with a west wind to the south of the surface low). We use AMSU mainly to examine development of warm cores. TRMM passive microwave TMI is used with SSM/I to look at the rain structure, which often indicates eye formation, and to look at the ice scattering signatures of deep convection. The TRMM precipitation radar, PR, when available, gives precipitation cross sections. So far we have detailed studies of two African-origin cyclones, one which became severe hurricane Floyd 1999, and the other reached TD2 in June 2000 and then died out. The atmosphere off West African is dry and stable. It becomes less so between June and September, as the SST and convection heat up. QuikSCAT shows the African monsoon trough and shear zone extend westward over the ocean to nearly 30 degrees West. The evidence is strong that the two cyclones had in common multiple midlevel mergers, which extended to the surface keeping the surface vortex strong. These continued until both systems were designated TD's by NHC. In the June 2000 case, the main reason for failure was the lower SST and dry, stable atmosphere. This is shown by the comparison of the equivalent potential temperature maps and profiles with those from pre-Floyd. In the vortex which became Floyd, QuikSCAT shows continuous importation of high theta e (warm, moist) air from the south. From September 2-8, this air flowed around the vortex center, building up a high theta-e pool to the north. Then late on September 9, a 100-km wide jet of high theta-e air penetrated the vortex core, a major convective burst' was observed, and an intensifying, more elevated warm core was seen on AMSU. Rapid pressure fall and wind intensification were underway by 0000 UTC on September 10. Floyd became a Hurricane at 1200 UTC on Sept 10, 1999, with successive convective bursts running the hurricane thermodynamic engine by intensifying the warm core. TD2 was a strong African vortex, sustained by moderate convection (up to about 12.5 km) offshore of Africa. It peaked on June 23, showing an apparent "eye" on passive microwave composites. However, it could not assemble the ingredients for a convective burst. Thus it failed to get the thermodynamic hurricane engine going before it moved too far west of the region of lowered Rossby radius. By June 26, cloud systems were dying out. On June 25, a surface vortex was no longer seen on QuikSCAT, although one continued above the surface on model profiles until June 27. One of our main findings so far is showing the role of the mesoscale vortex interactions in sustaining some African vortices far out in to the mid Atlantic, where under adequate thermal/moisture conditions the hurricane heat engine can sometimes be started. We are working on similar studies of Cindy and Irene 1999. Cindy illustrates a case of wind shear working against an early-stage hurricane heat engine, while Irene formed from a Caribbean wave. An enormous value of combinations of satellite tools is that tropical cyclones can be studied in all parts of the global oceans where they occur. Detailed studies like ours are labor intensive but many statistical studies can be based on physical postulates developed. There are other new tools such as MODIS on TERRA of the Earth Observing System (EOS) which can be used to study the microphysics of tropical cyclones world wide, in particular to investigate the presence of mixed phase and the impact of atmospheric aerosols on the hydrometeor structure and rainfall from tropical cyclones.

Simpson, Joanne↗
NASA NTRS2009

An Extended Forecast of the Frequencies of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2009

An extended forecast of the frequencies for the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season is presented. Continued increased activity during the 2009 season with numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes exceeding long-term averages are indicated. Poisson statistics for the combined high-activity intervals (1950-1965 and 1995-2008) give the central 50% intervals to be 9-14, 5-8, and 2-4, respectively, for the number of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, with a 23.4% chance of exceeding 14 tropical cyclones, a 28% chance of exceeding 8 hurricanes, and a 31.9% chance of exceeding 4 major hurricanes. Based strictly on the statistics of the current high-activity interval (1995-2008), the central 50% intervals for the numbers of tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 12-18, 6-10, and 3-5, respectively, with only a 5% chance of exceeding 23, 13, or 7 storms, respectively. Also examined are the first differences in 10-yr moving averages and the effects of global warming and decadal-length oscillations on the frequencies of occurrence for North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones. In particular, temperature now appears to be the principal driver of increased activity and storm strength during the current high-activity interval, with near-record values possible during the 2009 season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are a phenomenon that occurs in many mesoscale and synoptic weather systems, including tropical cyclones. TCBs are defined as "Bands of clouds oriented perpendicular to the flow in which they are embedded" (NOAA) and can be associated with low static stability and high environmental vertical wind shear in the upper levels (Kawashima 2021). TCBs in tropical cyclones are of particular interest due to their apparent occurrence and potential linkage to the tropical cyclone diurnal cycle, stronger tropical cyclones, and rapid intensification, where rapid intensification is an intensification rate of 30 knots or more in 24 hours (NHC).

John Mark Mayhall↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the North Atlantic Basin During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2014

This Technical Publication (TP) represents an extension of previous work concerning the tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic basin during the weather satellite era, 1960-2014, in particular, that of an article published in The Journal of the Alabama Academy of Science. With the launch of the TIROS-1 polar-orbiting satellite in April 1960, a new era of global weather observation and monitoring began. Prior to this, the conditions of the North Atlantic basin were determined only from ship reports, island reports, and long-range aircraft reconnaissance. Consequently, storms that formed far from land, away from shipping lanes, and beyond the reach of aircraft possibly could be missed altogether, thereby leading to an underestimate of the true number of tropical cyclones forming in the basin. Additionally, new analysis techniques have come into use which sometimes has led to the inclusion of one or more storms at the end of a nominal hurricane season that otherwise would not have been included. In this TP, examined are the yearly (or seasonal) and 10-year moving average (10-year moving average) values of the (1) first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and length of season (LOS); (2) frequencies of tropical cyclones (by class); (3) average peak 1-minute sustained wind speed ( ) and average lowest pressure ( ); (4) average genesis location in terms of north latitudinal ( ) and west longitudinal ( ) positions; (5) sum and average power dissipation index ( ); (6) sum and average accumulated cyclone energy ( ); (7) sum and average number of storm days ( ); (8) sum of the number of hurricane days (NHD) and number of major hurricane days (NMHD); (9) net tropical cyclone activity index (NTCA); (10) largest individual storm (LIS) PWS, LP, PDI, ACE, NSD, NHD, NMHD; and (11) number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes (N4/5). Also examined are the December-May (D-M) and June-November (J-N) averages and 10-year moving average values of several climatic factors, including the (1) oceanic Nino index ( ); (2) Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation ( ) index; (3) Atlantic meridional mode ( ) index; (4) global land-ocean temperature index ( ); and (5) quasi-biennial oscillation ( ) index. Lastly, the associational aspects (using both linear and nonparametric statistical tests) between selected tropical cyclone parameters and the climatic factors are examined based on their 10-year moving average trend values.

satellite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Objectively Identifying Transverse Cirrus Bands in Tropical Cyclones using a Convolutional Neural Network

Transverse cirrus bands (TCBs) are bands of upper-level clouds regularly seen in mesoscale and synoptic-scale weather systems. In tropical cyclones, their appearance has been subjectively linked to intensification and the diurnal cycle. However, these hypothesized relationships have not been rigorously tested due to the subjective nature of TCBs in satellite images. A machine learning technique that successfully identifies TCBs objectively in imagery from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) has been developed to solve this problem. The technique uses a U-Net convolutional neural network (CNN) that assigns a probability to each pixel in an image based on the likelihood of the pixel being associated with a TCB. Using the U-Net CNN, a database of TCBs from 2019 to 2022 was developed for the Atlantic tropical cyclone basin by defining an appropriate probability threshold that defines the difference between TCB and non-TCB pixels. This threshold is where the Jaccard score, calculated using manually identified TCBs and model identified TCBs, is maximized. Statistics for TCB occurrence will also be presented, including the relationships between TCBs and storm relative motion, shear relative direction, cardinal direction, tropical cyclone intensity, tropical cyclone intensification rates, and time of day.

John Mark Mayhall↗
NASA NTRS2004

Winds, Water Budgets and Stable Isotopes in Tropical Cyclones using TRMM and QUICKSCAT

Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in its concentration and distribution are controlled by the hydrologic cycle. Because of its capacity to absorb and emit long wave radiation, release latent heat during condensation in storms and reflect short wave radiation when clouds form it has a major impact on Global climate change. The stable isotope ratios of water are H20 H2l6O and H0 H2l6O. These ratios change whenever water undergoes a phase change. They also change in both rain and water vapor whenever an air parcel is exposed to rain. In addition the relative changes in the two ratios differ as a &nction of the relative humidity. In short, the stable isotope ratios in water vapor in the atmosphere contain an integrated history of the processes affecting the concentration and distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere. Therefore the measurement and interpretation of changes in these stable isotope ratios are a powerful tool matched by no other method in tracing the transport history of water in the atmosphere. Our initial studies under this grant focused on the changes of the stable isotope ratios of precipitation and water vapor in tropical cyclones. The changes in time and space were found to be very large and to trace the transport of water in the storms reflecting changes in basic structural features. Because the stable isotope ratios of rains from tropical cyclones are so low flooding associated with land falling tropical cyclones introduces a negative isotopic spike into the coastal surface waters. In addition the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the vicinity of tropical cyclones is anomalously low. This suggests that carbonate shelled organisms such as ostracoda living in coastal waters have the potential to record the isotopic spike and thereby provide a long term record of tropical storm activity in sediment cores containing fossil shells. Likewise, tree rings in coastal environments offer a similar potential. We have analyzed the oxygen isotopic composition of ostrcoda shells formed in the floodwaters of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) and discovered the negative isotopic 1 16 spike. Because we had learned that storm activity has a major impact on the stable isotope ratios of water vapor in the tropics and sub-tropics we decided to analyze the isotopic compositions of water vapor in different locations in the tropics. We did this in Puerto Escondido, Mexico in July 1998, near Kwajalein Island in the Pacific in 1999 as part of a TRMM summer field program and in 2001 in Key West, Florida as part of the CAMEX 4 summer field program. Our isotopic studies along with our earlier tropical cyclone studies showed that the low isotopic ratios in water vapor induced by exposure to rains the storms persisted for 48 hours often far away from the original storm site. We also noted that positive isotopic spikes were introduced into atmospheric water vapor if winds were high and extensive sea spray was present. These findings have a significant impact on the interpretation of the stable isotope studies of tropical ice cores found in the high mountain regions of the tropics. The assumption made in interpreting the ice core record is that the source water vapor evaporated from the sea surface is in near isotopic equilibrium with the seawater and undergoes a decrease during its transport that reflects the change in temperature from the sea surface to the site of the ice core. Because an additional isotopic depletion occurs at the sea surface source area that depends on the intensity, duration and size of the tropical rain system the isotopic variations found in the ice cores must take into account changes in past storm activity in the tropics. These systems must be an important source of water vapor to the ice cores because they charge the troposphere with water vapor to a far greater vertical height than evaporation in quiescent regions. Finally, an interest in increased heat transfer in thnterior of tropical cyclones resulting from greater amounts of sea spray is a topic of considerable interest to the research community. Increases in sea spray may be related to rapid changes in the intensity of hurricanes, a feature of hurricanes that currently is very poorly forecast. Project CBLAST of the Hurricane Research Division of NOAA is an active program that uses P3 research aircraft to evaluate this problem. An instrument has been designed and built at the University of Houston that will be placed on the P3 research aircraft during the 2004 hurricane season. It continuously measures the salt content of rain in hurricanes. Changes in the salt content of the rains should reflect the abundance of sea spray at the sea surface. In this way maps of sea spray intensity in hurricanes may be forthcoming. This should help computer modelers who simulate hurricanes to better understand the potential of changes in sea spray to change the intensity of hurricanes. The cost of designing, building and installing this instrument was borne largely by funding from this NASA grant. A list of presentations at national meetings and publications that were as the result of funding from this NASA grant are found in the report.

Lawrence, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The utilization of satellite observed total ozone to predict tropical cyclone recurvature

The feasibility of using satellite measurements of total ozone to delineate the characteristic upper-tropospheric wave patterns conductive for tropical cyclone recurvature was investigated using measurements by the Nimbus-7 TOMS instrument measurements of total ozone fields were used to delineate the total ozone distribution for the straight-moving, left-curving, and right-curving tropical cyclones. Using these data for 12-h and 24-h forecasts, it is shown that the composite total ozone maps could be used to differentiate the recurving tropical cyclones from nonrecurving systems, suggesting that the majority of the upper-tropospheric waves delineated by total ozone distribution were deep enough to influence the motion of the storms. The left- and the right-recurving tropical cyclones observed during the 12-hr and 24-hr periods had, respectively, higher and lower upper-tropospheric heights downstream than the nonrecurving cyclones.

Rodgers, Edward B.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Monitoring tropical cyclone intensity using wind fields derived from short-interval satellite images

Rapid scan visible images from the Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer sensor on board SMS-2 and GOES-1 were used to derive high resolution upper and lower tropospheric environmental wind fields around three western Atlantic tropical cyclones (1975-78). These wind fields were used to derive upper and lower tropospheric areal mean relative vorticity and their differences, the net relative angular momentum balance and upper tropospheric mass outflow. These kinematic parameters were shown by studies using composite rawinsonde data to be strongly related to tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. Also, the role of forced synoptic scale subsidence in tropical cyclone formation was examined. The studies showed that satellite-derived lower and upper tropospheric wind fields can be used to monitor and possibly predict tropical cyclone formation and intensity changes. These kinematic analyses showed that future changes in tropical cyclone intensity are mainly related to the "spin-up" of the storms by the net horizontal transport of relative angular momentum caused by convergence of cyclonic vorticity in the lower troposphere and to a lesser extent the divergence of anticyclone vorticity in the upper troposphere.

Rodgers, E. B.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Space-Based Precipitation Measurements in Tropical Cyclones: Past, Present, and Future

Passive and active remote sensing of precipitation from space has led to significant advances in the understanding and prediction of tropical cyclones around the globe. This presentation will highlight the role of past NASA space-based measurements of precipitation by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, 1998-2015), ongoing measurements by the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission (2014-current), and future measurements from the Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS, nominal launch date in 2020) as well as a potential new mission on Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) from the 2017 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey. TRMM, which flew the first precipitation radar in space, provided the first systematic descriptions of the radial and azimuthal variations of rainfall in tropical cyclones around the globe and their relationship to storm motion and vertical wind shear. GPM is the lynchpin of a global constellation of precipitation satellites that provides high spatial (0.1°) and temporal (30 min) resolution real-time estimates of precipitation globally, making them essential to applications related to tropical cyclone prediction, disaster response, flood and landslide monitoring, and vector-borne disease monitoring. TROPICS will be a constellation of 6 Cubesat satellites with microwave imaging and sounding channels that will provide information on temperature and humidity in the storm environment, as well as estimates of precipitation and tropical cyclone intensity. ACCP is yet to be fully defined, but is envisioned to potentially carry multi-frequency radar with possible Doppler capability.

Braun, Scott↗
NASA NTRS2014

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013

This Technical Publication (TP) is part 2 of a two-part study of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones that occurred during the weather satellite era, 1960-2013. In particular, this TP examines the inferred statistical relationships between 25 tropical cyclone parameters and 9 specific climate-related factors, including the (1) Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), (2) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), (3) Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, (4) Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index, (5) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), (6) NAO index of the Climate Research Unit (CRU), (7) Armagh surface air temperature (ASAT), (8) Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), and (9) Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (CO2) (MLCO2) index. Part 1 of this two-part study examined the statistical aspects of the 25 tropical cyclone parameters (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.) and provided the results of statistical testing (i.e., runs-testing, the t-statistic for independent samples, and Poisson distributions). Also, the study gave predictions for the frequencies of the number of tropical cyclones (NTC), number of hurricanes (NH), number of major hurricanes (NMH), and number of United States land-falling hurricanes (NUSLFH) expected for the 2014 season, based on the statistics of the overall interval 1960-2013, the subinterval 1995-2013, and whether the year 2014 would be either an El Niño year (ENY) or a non-El Niño year (NENY).

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Tropical cyclone track and genesis forecasting using satellite microwave sounder data

Although many dynamical and statistical prediction schemes are available to forecasters, tropical cyclone track errors are still large. One primary difficulty is that tropical cyclones exist over the data-sparse tropical oceans. Satellite sounders, however, routinely provide numerous data over these areas. Mean layer temperatures from the Scanning Microwave Spectrometer on board the Nimbus 6 satellite are decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions, and the expansion coefficients are related to deviations from the persistence forecast location, to speed change, to direction change and to intensity change. The significance of the regression equations is tested by a null hypothesis of zero correlation coefficient. It appears that significant information about tropical cyclone motion exists in the satellite-estimated mean layer temperatures, especially at upper levels. A physical interpretation of the statistical results is offered, and a one-storm-out independent test is used to test the stability of the equations. Finally, some further work is suggested.

Kidder, S. Q.↗
NASA NTRS1983

The role of the equivalent blackbody temperature in the study of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones

Satellite measured equivalent blackbody temperatures of Atlantic Ocean tropical cyclones are used to investigate their role in describing the convection and cloud patterns of the storms and in predicting wind intensity. The high temporal resolution of the equivalent blackbody temperature measurements afforded with the geosynchronous satellite provided sequential quantitative measurements of the tropical cyclone which reveal a diurnal pattern of convection at the inner core during the early developmental stage; a diurnal pattern of cloudiness in the storm's outer circulation throughout the life cycle; a semidiurnal pattern of cloudiness in the environmental atmosphere surrounding the storms during the weak storm stage; an outward modulating atmospheric wave originating at the inner core; and long term convective bursts at the inner core prior to wind intensification.

Steranka, J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The View from the Top: CALIOP Ice Water Content in the Uppermost Layer of Tropical Cyclones

NASA's CALIPSO satellite carries both the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) and the Imaging Infrared Radiometer (IIR). The lidar is ideally suited to viewing the very top of tropical cyclones, and the IIR provides critical optical and microphysical information. The lidar and the IIR data work together to understand storm clouds since they are perfectly co-located, and big tropical cyclones provide an excellent complex target for comparing the observations. There is a lot of information from these case studies for understanding both the observations and the tropical cyclones, and we are just beginning to scratch the surface of what can be learned. Many tropical cyclone cloud particle measurements are focused on the middle and lower regions of storms, but characterization of cyclone interaction with the lowermost stratosphere at the upper storm boundary may be important for determining the total momentum and moisture transport budget, and perhaps for predicting storm intensity as well. A surprising amount of cloud ice is to be found at the very top of these big storms.

Avery, Melody A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity in Relation to Temperature and Decadal- Length Oscillation Patterns

Yearly frequencies of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, their locations of origin, peak wind speeds, average peak wind speeds, lowest pressures, and average lowest pressures for the interval 1950-2008 are examined. The effects of El Nino and La Nina on the tropical cyclone parametric values are investigated. Yearly and 10-year moving average (10-yma) values of tropical cyclone parameters are compared against those of temperature and decadal-length oscillation, employing both linear and bi-variate analysis, and first differences in the 10-yma are determined. Discussion of the 2009 North Atlantic basin hurricane season, updating earlier results, is given.

Wilson, Robert M.↗