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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing the Viability of Using GEOS-Forecast Product for Landslides Forecasting: A Step Toward Early Warning System

Landslides across the globe are mostly triggered by extreme rainfall events affecting infrastructure, transportation and livelihoods. The risks are rarely quantified due to lack of data, analytical skills and limited modeling techniques. Knowledge of local to global scale landslide risks provides communities and national agencies the ability to adapt disaster management practices to mitigate and recover from these hazards. In order to minimize the risks and improve characterization of community resilience to landslides, it is vital to have reliable information about the factors triggering landslides such as rainfall, well ahead in time. Forecasting potential landslide activity and impacts can be achieved through reliable precipitation forecast models. However, it is challenging because of the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation, an important factor in triggering landslides. Evaluation of the precipitation field, associated errors, and sampling uncertainties is integral for development of efficient and reliable landslide forecasting and early warning system. This study develops a methodology to assess the viability of using a precipitation field provided by a global model and its potential integration in the landslide forecasting system. The study focuses on the comparison between the IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Mission) and GEOS (NASA Goddard Earth Observing System)-Forecast product over contiguous United States (CONUS). GEOS model assimilates new observations every 6 hours, at 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. The framework is tested on the GEOS-Forecast Model initialized at 00 UTC using daily IMERG early product as reference using both categorical and continuous statistics. The categorical statistics includes the probability of detection (POD), success ratio (SR), critical success index (CSI), and the hit bias. Continuous statistics such as correlation, normalized standard deviation, and root-mean-square error are also evaluated. Overall, GEOS-Forecast precipitation field over the analysis period (~1 year) show underestimation with respect to IMERG early for the daily accumulated rainfall. However, the probability distribution function and cumulative distribution function of both show similar patterns. In terms of correlations, POD, SR, CSI, hit bias, the performance varies with respect to the rainfall threshold used.

Sana Khan↗
NASA NTRS2002

Phase Synchronization and Desynchronization of Structural Response Induced by Turbulent and External Sound

Acoustic and turbulent boundary layer flow loadings over a flexible structure are used to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of the response of the structure. The stability of the spatial synchronization and desynchronization by an active external force is investigated with an array of coupled transducers on the structure. In the synchronous state, the structural phase is locked, which leads to the formation of spatial patterns while the amplitude peaks exhibit chaotic behaviors. Large amplitude, spatially symmetric loading is superimposed on broadband, but in the desynchronized state, the spectrum broadens and the phase space is lost. The resulting pattern bears a striking resemblance to phase turbulence. The transition is achieved by using a low power external actuator to trigger broadband behaviors from the knowledge of the external acoustic load inducing synchronization. The changes are made favorably and efficiently to alter the frequency distribution of power, not the total power level. Before synchronization effects are seen, the panel response to the turbulent boundary layer loading is discontinuously spatio-temporally correlated. The stability develops from different competing wavelengths; the spatial scale is significantly shorter than when forced with the superimposed external sound. When the external sound level decreases and the synchronized phases are lost, changes in the character of the spectra can be linked to the occurrence of spatial phase transition. These changes can develop broadband response. Synchronized responses of fuselage structure panels have been observed in subsonic and supersonic aircraft; results from two flights tests are discussed.

Maestrello, Lucio↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Latest Space-Borne Observations of TGFs from Fermi-GBM

The Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Observatory (Fermi) is detecting about two TGFs per week. This rate has increased by a factor of approx.eight since launch when flight software was uploaded to the spacecraft in November 2009 in order to increase the sensitivity of GBM to TGFs. Weaker, un-triggered TGFs are now also being observed about once per day over selected low-latitude regions Americas. The high efficiency and time resolution (2 s) of GBM allows temporal features to be resolved so that some insight may be gained on the origin and transport of the gamma-ray photons through the atmosphere. TGFs are observed to be shorter than previously thought, with an average duration of approx.100 micro-s. The absolute times of TGFs are known to approx.10 micro-s, allowing accurate correlations of TGFs with lightning networks and other lightning-related phenomena. The events are observed in the thick bismuth germanate (BGO) scintillation detectors of GBM with photon energies above 40 MeV. Other new results on the temporal and spectral characteristics of TGFs will be presented, along with properties of several electron-positron TGF events that have been identified.

Fishman, Gerald J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Antarctic O3 - Chemical mechanisms for the spring decrease

Chemical explanations for the spring decline of Antarctic O3 involve reactions of ClO or interactions between BrO and ClO. Reaction schemes involving Br radicals have the highest efficiency for removal of O3. The chemical mechanisms require low levels of NO(x). Recent cooling of the stratosphere may have triggered formation of HNO3 monohydrate, removing NO(x) and setting the stage for enhanced loss of ozone over Antarctica.

Mcelroy, Michael B.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Variability of Basal Melt Beneath the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Observations from satellite and airborne platforms are combined with model calculations to infer the nature and efficiency of basal melting of the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica, by ocean waters. Satellite imagery shows surface features that suggest ice-shelf-wide changes to the ocean s influence on the ice shelf as the grounding line retreated. Longitudinal profiles of ice surface and bottom elevations are analyzed to reveal a spatially dependent pattern of basal melt with an annual melt flux of 40.5 Gt/a. One profile captures a persistent set of surface waves that correlates with quasi-annual variations of atmospheric forcing of Amundsen Sea circulation patterns, establishing a direct connection between atmospheric variability and sub-ice-shelf melting. Ice surface troughs are hydrostatically compensated by ice-bottom voids up to 150m deep. Voids form dynamically at the grounding line, triggered by enhanced melting when warmer-than-average water arrives. Subsequent enlargement of the voids is thermally inefficient (4% or less) compared with an overall melting efficiency beneath the ice shelf of 22%. Residual warm water is believed to cause three persistent polynyas at the ice-shelf front seen in Landsat imagery. Landsat thermal imagery confirms the occurrence of warm water at the same locations.

Bindschadler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1993

Density wave triggered star formation in grand design spirals

In normal spiral galaxies the arms are the main sites for star formation. This is the cause of their optical contrast compared with the rest of the disc. The spiral structure can be observed as a higher concentration of H2 regions, neutral gas (both atomic and molecular via CO), dust and stars than in the interarm disc. It seens generally accepted that, at least in grand design spirals, there are density waves in the discs. However, several questions are not clear yet and still under discussion. An important question could be termed the triggering dilemma (by analogy with the 'winding dilemma' raised in the forties): Is the enhanced star formation in the spiral arms triggered by the passage of a system of density waves or is it simply due to the presence of a higher column density of gas there? In the present work, we use triggering in the same sense as the moderate to strong triggering defined by Elmegreen (1992), that is to say that star formation in the arms occurs at a rate faster than that in the interarm zone, relative to the available placental gas. Our group has designed several tests to elucidate whether or not star formation is triggered in the arms with respect to the interarm region and we summarize one of them, that of the ratio of the star formation efficiency in the arms divided by that of the interarm zone at the same galactocentric distance which we may call the relative massive star formation efficiency, where the efficiency is defined using the ratio of the mass of stars (evaluated via the H alpha flux) to the mass of neutral gas, atomic plus molecular (which must be measured with the adequate angular resolution). If the relative efficiency is of order unity, the star formation is proportional to the mass of gas, if some kind of induced star formation is present, the relative efficiency should be considerably larger than unity.

Cepa, J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Video Event Trigger

Video event trigger (VET) processes video image data to generate trigger signal when image shows significant change like motion or appearance, disappearance, change in color, change in brightness, or dilation of object. System aids in efficient utilization of image-data-storage and image-data-processing equipment in applications in which many video frames show no changes and are wasteful to record and analyze all frames when only relatively few frames show changes of interest. Applications include video recording of automobile crash tests, automated video monitoring of entrances, exits, parking lots, and secure areas.

Williams, Glenn L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Real-Time Exposure Control and Instrument Operation With the NEID Spectrograph GUI

The NEID spectrograph on the WIYN 3.5-m telescope at Kitt Peak has completed its first full year of science operations and is reliably delivering sub-m/s precision radial velocity measurements. The NEID instrument control system uses the TIMS package (Bender et al. 2016), which is a client-server software system built around the twisted python software stack. During science observations, interaction with the NEID spectrograph is handled through a pair of graphical user interfaces (GUIs), written in PyQT, which wrap the underlying instrument control software and provide straightforward and reliable access to the instrument. Here, we detail the design of these interfaces and present an overview of their use for NEID operations. Observers can use the NEID GUIs to set the exposure time, signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) threshold, and other relevant parameters for observations, configure the calibration bench and observing mode, track or edit observation metadata, and monitor the current state of the instrument. These GUIs facilitate automatic spectrograph configuration and target ingestion from the nightly observing queue, which improves operational efficiency and consistency across epochs. By interfacing with the NEID exposure meter, the GUIs also allow observers to monitor the progress of individual exposures and trigger the shutter on user-defined SNR thresholds. In addition, inset plots of the instantaneous and cumulative exposure meter counts as each observation progresses allow for rapid diagnosis of changing observing conditions as well as guiding failure and other emergent issues.

Arvind F Gupta↗
NASA NTRS1974

Measurement of separate electron and positron spectra in the primary cosmic rays from 5 to 50 GeV

A magnetic spectrometer and lead-plate spark chamber have been used to measure separate primary cosmic-ray electrons and positrons up to 50 GeV. Separation of these particles from the background was accomplished with a new technique combining both selective trigger and observation, in the lead-plate chamber, of bremsstrahlung photons that were created in a thin radiator placed above the spectrometer. The results of efficiency and rejection calibrations with accelerator tests and Monte Carlo calculations are presented, as well as preliminary data from a balloon-flight exposure of the apparatus.

Buffington, A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A comparison of the radial distribution of molecular gas and non-thermal radio continuum in spiral disks

The present study includes 65 spiral galaxies selected from the Five College Radio Astronomy Observatory (FCRAO) Extragalactic CO Survey for which the major axis distributions of CO emission and 1.49 GHz radio continuum emission are well determined. The radial distribution of the CO emission has been measured with the FCRAO at positions along the major axis that are spaced by one half power beam width (HPBW) (45 seconds). The radial profile of the 1.49 GHz radio continuum emission was constructed by determining the radio emission at the location of the CO measurements from the 1.49 GHz maps of Condon (1987). Large, greater than a factor of ten, radially decreasing gradients in the star formation efficiency are observed for a small percentage, approx. 10 percent, of the spirals in this sample. The majority of spirals, however, are associated with small gradients in the star formation efficiency that do not systematically increase or decrease with radius. That the star formation efficiency does not systematically decrease with radius tends to argue against a global dynamical mechanism, such as a spiral density wave, for being the dominant mechanism triggering disk star formation for the majority of spirals in this sample. The results tend to support the view that the star formation in spiral disks is dominated by a local process that depends more on the molecular cloud properties than the dynamical structure of a galaxy.

Devereux, Nicholas A.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Theory of Immersion Freezing

Immersion freezing is likely involved in the initiation of precipitation and determines to large extent the phase partitioning in convective clouds. Theoretical models commonly used to describe immersion freezing in atmospheric models are based on the classical nucleation theory which however neglects important interactions near the immersed particle that may affect nucleation rates. This work introduces a new theory of immersion freezing based on two premises. First, immersion ice nucleation is mediated by the modification of the properties of water near the particle-liquid interface, rather than by the geometry of the ice germ. Second, the same mechanism that leads to the decrease in the work of germ formation also decreases the mobility of water molecules near the immersed particle. These two premises allow establishing general thermodynamic constraints to the ice nucleation rate. Analysis of the new theory shows that active sites likely trigger ice nucleation, but they do not control the overall nucleation rate nor the probability of freezing. It also suggests that materials with different ice nucleation efficiency may exhibit similar freezing temperatures under similar conditions but differ in their sensitivity to particle surface area and cooling rate. Predicted nucleation rates show good agreement with observations for a diverse set of materials including dust, black carbon and bacterial ice nucleating particles. The application of the new theory within the NASA Global Earth System Model (GEOS-5) is also discussed.

Ice Nucleating particle↗
NASA NTRS2013

Distributed Prognostics and Health Management with a Wireless Network Architecture

A heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle-filtering (PF) framework, with the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs, has been developed. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle-filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties in state estimation and remaining life estimation. Current state-of-the-art prognostic health management (PHM) systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to a loss in functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become for a number of reasons somewhat ungainly for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures can be more beneficial. The distributed health management architecture is comprised of a network of smart sensor devices. These devices monitor the health of various subsystems or modules. They perform diagnostics operations and trigger prognostics operations based on user-defined thresholds and rules. The sensor devices, called computing elements (CEs), consist of a sensor, or set of sensors, and a communication device (i.e., a wireless transceiver beside an embedded processing element). The CE runs in either a diagnostic or prognostic operating mode. The diagnostic mode is the default mode where a CE monitors a given subsystem or component through a low-weight diagnostic algorithm. If a CE detects a critical condition during monitoring, it raises a flag. Depending on availability of resources, a networked local cluster of CEs is formed that then carries out prognostics and fault mitigation by efficient distribution of the tasks. It should be noted that the CEs are expected not to suspend their previous tasks in the prognostic mode. When the prognostics task is over, and after appropriate actions have been taken, all CEs return to their original default configuration. Wireless technology-based implementation would ensure more flexibility in terms of sensor placement. It would also allow more sensors to be deployed because the overhead related to weights of wired systems is not present. Distributed architectures are furthermore generally robust with regard to recovery from node failures.

Goebel, Kai↗
NASA NTRS2021

Landslide Mapping Using Object-Based Image Analysis and Open Source Tools

Availability of high-resolution optical imagery and advances in image processing technologies have significantly improved our ability to map landslides. In recent years object-based image analysis (OBIA) has been gaining in popularity for landslide mapping due to its ability to incorporate spectral, textural, morphological and topographical properties. Many studies have been conducted based on commercial software. In this study, we create an open source Semi-Automatic Landslide Detection (SALaD) system utilizing OBIA and machine learning. Configured to run in Linux environment, it uses various opensource Python packages and modules. This system was tested in 575 km2 area along the Pasang Lhamu Highway, Nepal where large numbers of landslides were triggered by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake. Comparison with a manual inventory highlighted that this system was able to detect 70% of the landslide area. The speed and efficiency with which this system was able to detect landslides makes it a viable alternative to manual techniques for landslide mapping over large areas, when establishing approximate landslide locations is of prime importance.

Open source↗
NASA NTRS2021

Development of Ice-Shelf Estuaries Promotes Fractures and Calving

As the global climate warms, increased surface meltwater production on ice shelves may trigger ice-shelf collapse and enhance global sea-level rise. The formation of surface rivers could help prevent ice-shelf collapse if they can efficiently evacuate meltwater. Here we present observations of the evolution of a surface river into an ice-shelf estuary atop the Petermann Ice Shelf in northwest Greenland and identify a second estuary at the nearby Ryder Ice Shelf. This surface-hydrology process can foster fracturing and enhance calving. At the Petermann estuary, sea ice was observed converging at the river mouth upstream, indicating a flow reversal. Seawater persists in the estuary after the surrounding icescape is frozen. Along the base of Petermann estuary, linear fractures were initiated at the calving front and propagated upstream along the channel. Similar fractures along estuary channels shaped past large rectilinear calving events at the Petermann and Ryder ice shelves. Increased surface melting in a warming world will enhance fluvial incision, promoting estuary development and longitudinal fracturing orthogonal to ice-shelf fronts, and increase rectilinear calving. Estuaries could develop in Antarctica within the next half-century, resulting in increased calving and accelerating both ice loss and global sea-level rise.

Cryospheric science↗
NASA NTRS1974

Two-position dc pulse voltage stabilizer

The advantages of the dc pulse voltage stabilizers over the continuous action stabilizers are described. These advantages include higher efficiency, low sensitivity to the ambient temperature and insignificant size and weight. A comparison is made between the schematics of the known two position pulse stabilizer with a Schmitt trigger and that developed by the author. A characteristic feature of the improved system is the increased stabilization coefficient and the possibility of smooth regulation of the output voltage. A practical schematic is presented for the improved two position pulse stabilizer along with its parameters.

Osadchiy, V. I.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Interplanetary shock waves and magnetospheric substorms

It is shown that substorm activity after a storm sudden commencement (SSC) depends on whether or not an interplanetary shock wave is accompanied by a large increase of the solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function. It has long been thought that substorm activity associated with an SSC results from sudden conversion of magnetic energy stored in the magnetotail, and that this conversion is triggered by the shock wave. However, the present result implies that the magnetospheric substorm is not a sudden conversion of stored magnetic energy, but is a direct consequence of increased efficiency of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Enabling Real-time Multi-messenger Astrophysics Discoveries with Deep Learning

Multi-messenger astrophysics is a fast-growing, interdisciplinary field that combines data, which vary in volume and speed of data processing, from many different instruments that probe the Universe using different cosmic messengers: electromagnetic waves, cosmic rays, gravitational waves and neutrinos. In this Expert Recommendation, we review the key challenges of real-time observations of gravitational wave sources and their electromagnetic and astroparticle counterparts, and make a number of recommendations to maximize their potential for scientific discovery. These recommendations refer to the design of scalable and computationally efficient machine learning algorithms; the cyber-infrastructure to numerically simulate astrophysical sources, and to process and interpret multi-messenger astrophysics data; the management of gravitational wave detections to trigger real-time alerts for electromagnetic and astroparticle follow-ups; a vision to harness future developments of machine learning and cyber-infrastructure resources to cope with the big-data requirements; and the need to build a community of experts to realize the goals of multi-messenger astrophysics.

E A Huerta↗
NASA NTRS2017

Flight Crew Survey Responses from the Interval Management (IM) Avionics Phase 2 Flight Test

The Interval Management (IM) Avionics Phase 2 flight test used three aircraft over a nineteen day period to operationally evaluate a prototype IM avionics. Quantitative data were collected on aircraft state data and IM spacing algorithm performance, and qualitative data were collected through end-of-scenario and end-of-day flight crew surveys. The majority of the IM operations met the performance goals established for spacing accuracy at the Achieve-by Point and the Planned Termination Point, however there were operations that did not meet goals for a variety of reasons. While the positive spacing accuracy results demonstrate the prototype IM avionics can contribute to the overall air traffic goal, critical issues were also identified that need to be addressed to enhance IM performance. The first category was those issues that impacted the conduct and results of the flight test, but are not part of the IM concept or procedures. These included the design of arrival and approach procedures was not ideal to support speed as the primary control mechanism, the ground-side of the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration (ATD-1) integrated concept of operations was not part of the flight test, and the high workload to manually enter the information required to conduct an IM operation. The second category was issues associated with the IM spacing algorithm or flight crew procedures. These issues include the high frequency of IM speed changes and reversals (accelerations), a mismatch between the deceleration rate used by the spacing algorithm and the actual aircraft performance, and some spacing error calculations were sensitive to normal operational variations in aircraft airspeed or altitude which triggered additional IM speed changes. Once the issues in these two categories are addressed, the future IM avionics should have considerable promise supporting the goals of improving system throughput and aircraft efficiency.

Baxley, Brian T.↗