Maximizing Operator Impact: Leveraging Machine Learning to Improve Trending Analysis for the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission
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Shannon Bull↗
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Maximizing Operator Impact: Leveraging Machine Learning to Improve Trending Analysis for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission
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Shannon Bull↗
Reliability Practice at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
This paper describes in brief the Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) Programs performed directly by the reliability branch at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The mission assurance requirements flow down is explained. GSFC practices for PRA, reliability prediction/fault tree analysis/reliability block diagram, FMEA, part stress and derating analysis, worst case analysis, trend analysis, limit life items are presented. Lessons learned are summarized and recommendations on improvement are identified.
Pruessner, Paula S.↗
Generic trending and analysis system
The Generic Trending and Analysis System (GTAS) is a generic spacecraft performance monitoring tool developed by NASA Code 511 and Loral Aerosys. It is designed to facilitate quick anomaly resolution and trend analysis. Traditionally, the job of off-line analysis has been performed using hardware and software systems developed for real-time spacecraft contacts; then, the systems were supplemented with a collection of tools developed by Flight Operations Team (FOT) members. Since the number of upcoming missions is increasing, NASA can no longer afford to operate in this manner. GTAS improves control center productivity and effectiveness because it provides a generic solution across multiple missions. Thus, GTAS eliminates the need for each individual mission to develop duplicate capabilities. It also allows for more sophisticated tools to be developed because it draws resources from several projects. In addition, the GTAS software system incorporates commercial off-the-shelf tools software (COTS) packages and reuses components of other NASA-developed systems wherever possible. GTAS has incorporated lessons learned from previous missions by involving the users early in the development process. GTAS users took a proactive role in requirements analysis, design, development, and testing. Because of user involvement, several special tools were designed and are now being developed. GTAS users expressed considerable interest in facilitating data collection for long term trending and analysis. As a result, GTAS provides easy access to large volumes of processed telemetry data directly in the control center. The GTAS archival and retrieval capabilities are supported by the integration of optical disk technology and a COTS relational database management system.
Keehan, Lori↗
Wildfire Emergency Response Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) through Natural Language Processing and Time Series
A methodology for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) is proposed and conducted on a data set of wildfire incident response forms, known as ICS-209-PLUS.The HEAT processes: (1) extract a set of hazards from a data set, (2) calculate hazard-relevant metrics in a primary analysis, (3) analyze trends over time in metrics using timeseries, and (4) examine potential explanations for metric trends using a secondary analysis. Hazards are extracted from narrative data in the ICS-209-PLUS based on a framework previously developed by the authors, using natural language processing. Metrics examined for each hazard include operational time to occurrence, rate of occurrence, frequency, and severity. Primary results include a taxonomy of hazards present in the data set with relevant quantitative metrics. The most frequent hazards identified are environmental and include hazardous terrain. Most hazards occur on average between 35-55% containment. Incidents with hazards tend to have a higher average severity score when compared to the average score for all incidents. Time series of the metrics and relevant predictors, including fire characteristics, fire intensity, and operations, are created to facilitate further analysis. Secondary results used to determine which factors best predict hazard frequency include a correlation matrix and regression analysis. These findings are relevant to safety for current, as well as emerging wildfire operations, and are an exploratory first step in developing historical data-driven risk assessment models.
Sequoia R. Andrade↗
Program trend line analysis, an aid to general management.
NASA management and program trend line analysis
MANAGEMENT PLANNING↗
Stability analysis and trend study of a balloon tethered in a wind, with experimental comparisons
A stability analysis and trend study for a balloon tethered in a steady wind are presented. The linearized, stability-derivative type analysis includes balloon aerodynamics, buoyancy, mass (including apparent mass), and static forces resulting from the tether cable. The analysis has been applied to a balloon 7.64 m in length, and the results are compared with those from tow tests of this balloon. This comparison shows that the analysis gives reasonable predictions for the damping, frequencies, modes of motion, and stability boundaries exhibited by the balloon. A trend study for the 7.64-m balloon was made to illustrate how the stability boundaries are affected by changes in individual stability parameters. The trends indicated in this study may also be applicable to many other tethered-balloon systems.
Redd, L. T.↗
Machine Learning Framework for Hazard Extraction and Analysis of Trends (HEAT) in Wildfire Response
This research proposes a natural language processing enabled risk analysis framework, named Hazard Extraction andAnalysis of Trends (HEAT), and applies the framework to the ICS-209-PLUS data set of wildfire incident responseforms. The HEAT framework produces safety- and risk- relevant analyses, consisting of: (1) a set of hazards extractedfrom text data, (2) a primary analysis using hazard-relevant metrics, such as rate and severity, to form an FMEA-styletable and risk matrix, (3) a time series analysis of metric trends, and (4) a secondary analysis examining potentialpredictors for hazards. Results from HEAT provide quantitative risk-relevant information for high-level hazards doc-umented in existing-state operations. Because of the generalizability of the steps and limited data requirements, HEATcan be applied to any dataset containing narrative text, thus providing a framework for data-driven machine learning-enabled quantitative risk analysis across a variety of domains. To demonstrate HEAT in a case study, we apply theframework to the ICS-209-PLUS dataset of wildland fire incident response forms. Hazards identified in wildfire re-sponse arise from environmental conditions, the mission, and the wildland urban interface. The resulting risk matrixidentifies evacuations as high-risk hazards, while all other identified hazards are medium or serious risk.
natural language processing↗
Printed Wiring Board Technology Infusion and Supplier Capability Overview
Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at QLF 2018 provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
PCB fabrication↗
PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability (PD 18)
Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
Sood, Bhanu↗
A Physics of Failure Approach to Evaluate Printed Circuit Board Reliability
Risk based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process which defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2019 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed wiring board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed wiring board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends will then be matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies which promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
Printed Circuit Boards↗
PCB Quality Metrics that Drive Reliability
Risk-based technology infusion is a deliberate and systematic process that defines the analysis and communication methodology by which new technology is applied and integrated into existing and new designs, identifies technology development needs based on trends analysis and facilitates the identification of shortfalls against performance objectives. This presentation at IPC Works Asia Aerospace 2021 Events provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed-wiring-board quality, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PWB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on printed-wiring-board quality metrics used, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across PWB suppliers, the root cause(s) behind these non-conformance and suggestions of mitigation plans. The trends are then matched with the current state of the PWB supplier base and its challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the risk-based SMA approaches and methods being applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate printed wiring board technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
Printed circuit boards↗
Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols
The effect of stratospheric aerosols on Umkehr estimates of long-term ozone depletion associated with chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) is considered in a statistical time series trend analysis. Time series models are estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr measurements made over the last 15 to 20 years. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend and noise factors and an additional factor to account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. The analysis indicates a statistically significant relation with atmospheric aerosol transmission in the Umkehr layers and implies that the relation is an important factor in any time series trend analysis of Umkehr data. Taking this relation into account, statistically significant negative trends were found in the Upper Umkehr layers. It is pointed out that upper stratospheric ozone could be sensitive to long-term solar variability as well as other possible influences in addition to CFM-induced effects, and therefore the cause or causes of the estimated trend cannot be unambiguously estimated using current Umkehr data.
Reinsel, G. C.↗
The application of trend surface analysis to a portion of the Apollo 15 X-ray fluorescence data
X-ray fluorescence data for 8 and 16 second time integrals gathered by Apollo 15 in circum lunar orbit were analyzed to determine the capability for chemical mapping of relatively small lunar features in a portion of Tranquillitatis and Serenitatis basins. Spatial mapping using trend surface analysis demonstrated that a useable signal could be extracted from Al/Si intensity ratios calculated for 8 second time spans. Reliability of the Al/Si ratio was enhanced when 16 second data were compiled using a sliding average technique. Residual anomalies from the trend surface mapping were identified and correlated with relatively small lunar surface features.
Podwysocki, M. H.↗
The application of trend surface analysis to a portion of the Apollo 15 X-ray fluorescence data
The present work discusses some useful techniques for the detailed chemical mapping of the lunar surface from X-ray fluorescence data, using Al/Si and Mg/Si intensity ratios and preliminary geologic interpretations of some relatively small lunar physiographic features. It is shown that these features can be distinguished as anomalies by employing trend surface analysis on the data. Some correlations between albedo differences and elemental ratios can be found within mare areas. A useful lower limit of 16 seconds is established for time integrals of Al/Si intensity ratios. It was not possible here to determine the minimum time integration necessary for the best spatial mapping of the Mg/Si data.
Podwysocki, M. H.↗
An Overview of Printed Circuit Board Risks and Supplier Capability
This NESC Webinar provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed circuit boards, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PCB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on PCB quality metrics, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across suppliers, the associated root cause(s) behind these non-conformance, suggestions of mitigation plans and most importantly – the relation of these non-conformances to end item reliability. The statistical trends will then be matched with the current state of the domestic PCB supplier base, its key challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the methods applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate PCB technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
printed cricuit boards, supplier capability, risk ↗
An Overview of Printed Circuit Board Risks and Supplier Capability (Reuse Document ID 20205007963)
This HDPUG Webinar provides the audience a snapshot of quality variations in printed circuit boards, as assessed, using experiences in processing and risk analysis of PCB structural integrity coupons. The presentation will focus on PCB quality metrics, the relative type and number of non-conformances observed and trend analysis using statistical methods. Trend analysis shows the top five non-conformances observed across suppliers, the associated root cause(s) behind these non-conformance, suggestions of mitigation plans and most importantly – the relation of these non-conformances to end item reliability. The statistical trends will then be matched with the current state of the domestic PCB supplier base, its key challenges and opportunities. The presentation further discusses the methods applied at GSFC for evaluating candidate PCB technologies that promote the adoption of higher throughput and faster processing technology for GSFC missions.
printed cricuit boards, supplier capability, risk ↗