Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Tipping Point”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Kicking the can down the road: understanding the effects of delaying the deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of ∼1.5° C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a ‘delayed’ start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (−30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. Southern hemisphere ozone is higher from 2035 to 2050 in the delayed start scenario, but converges to the same value later in the century. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10–25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Brody, Ezra (ORCID:000900030008681X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of benchmarking choices on inferred model skill of the Arctic–Boreal terrestrial carbon cycle

Abstract Land surface models require continuous validation against observations to improve and reduce simulation uncertainty. However, inferred model performance can be heavily influenced by subjective choices made in the selection and application of observational data products. A key area often misrepresented by models is the Arctic–Boreal region, which is a potential tipping point region in Earth’s climate system due to large permafrost carbon stocks that are vulnerable to release with climate warming. We use the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework to evaluate how the model skill of TRENDY-v9 models varies based on the choice of observational-based benchmark and how benchmarks are applied in model evaluation. This analysis uses global datasets integrated into ILAMB and new, regionally-specific observational products from the Arctic–Boreal Vulnerability Experiment. Our results cover the overall time period of 1979–2019 and show that model scores can vary substantially depending on the data product applied, with higher model scores indicating better model performance against observations. The lowest model scores occur when benchmarked against regional, compared to global, datasets. We also evaluate observed and modeled functional relationships between ecosystem respiration and air temperature and between gross primary production and precipitation. Here, we find that the magnitude and shape of the responses are strongly impacted by the choice of observational dataset and the approach used to construct the functional relationship benchmark. These results suggest that model evaluation studies could conclude a false sense of model skill if only using a single benchmark data product or if not applying regional data products when performing a regional model analysis. Collectively, our findings highlight the influence of benchmarking choices on model evaluation and point to the need for benchmarking guidelines when assessing model skill.

Poe, Jeralyn (ORCID:0000000318495278)↗
DOE OSTI2023

A subcellular biochemical model for T6SS dynamics reveals winning competitive strategies

Abstract The type VI secretion system (T6SS) is a broadly distributed interbacterial weapon that can be used to eliminate competing bacterial populations. Although unarmed target populations are typically used to study T6SS function in vitro, bacteria most likely encounter other T6SS-armed competitors in nature. However, the connection between subcellular details of the T6SS and the outcomes of such mutually lethal battles is not well understood. Here, we incorporate biological data derived from natural competitors of Vibrio fischeri light organ symbionts to build a biochemical model for T6SS at the single-cell level, which we then integrate into an agent-based model (ABM). Using the ABM, we isolate and experiment with strain-specific physiological differences between competitors in ways not possible with biological samples to identify winning strategies for T6SS-armed populations. Through in vitro experiments, we discover that strain-specific differences exist in T6SS activation speed. ABM simulations corroborate that faster activation is dominant in determining survival during competition. Once competitors are fully activated, the energy required for T6SS creates a tipping point where increased weapon building and firing becomes too costly to be advantageous. Through ABM simulations, we identify the threshold where this transition occurs in the T6SS parameter space. We also find that competitive outcomes depend on the geometry of the battlefield: unarmed target cells survive at the edges of a range expansion where unlimited territory can be claimed. Alternatively, competitions within a confined space, much like the light organ crypts where natural V. fischeri compete, result in the rapid elimination of the unarmed population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gene Expression Thresholds Derived From Short-term Exposures Identify Rat Liver Tumorigens

Abstract Traditional methods for cancer risk assessment are resource-intensive, retrospective, and not feasible for the vast majority of environmental chemicals. In this study, we investigated whether quantitative genomic data from short-term studies may be used to set protective thresholds for potential tumorigenic effects. We hypothesized that gene expression biomarkers measuring activation of the key early events in established pathways for rodent liver cancer exhibit cross-chemical thresholds for tumorigenesis predictive for liver cancer risk. We defined biomarker thresholds for 6 major liver cancer pathways using training sets of chemicals with short-term genomic data (3–29 days of exposure) from the TG-GATES (n = 77 chemicals) and DrugMatrix (n = 86 chemicals) databases and then tested these thresholds within and between datasets. The 6 pathway biomarkers represented genotoxicity, cytotoxicity, and activation of xenobiotic, steroid, and lipid receptors (aryl hydrocarbon receptor, constitutive activated receptor, estrogen receptor, and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor α). Thresholds were calculated as the maximum values derived from exposures without detectable liver tumor outcomes. We identified clear response values that were consistent across training and test sets. Thresholds derived from the TG-GATES training set were highly predictive (97%) in a test set of independent chemicals, whereas thresholds derived from the DrugMatrix study were 96%–97% predictive for the TG-GATES study. Threshold values derived from an abridged gene list (2/biomarker) also exhibited high predictive accuracy (91%–94%). These findings support the idea that early genomic changes can be used to establish threshold estimates or “molecular tipping points” that are predictive of later-life health outcomes.

Hill, III,, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2025

From Depletion to Restoration: Lessons From Long‐Term Monitoring of Carbon Gains and Losses in Cropping Systems

As global atmospheric CO 2 rapidly approaches a key tipping point, there is an urgent need to implement strategies to reverse this pattern. A generally accepted understanding of carbon (C) in agricultural fields includes: (H1) substantial C loss occurs when natural vegetation is converted to crops, (H2) soils typically reach a steady-state C concentration under contemporary practices, and (H3) improved management or crop selection can enhance soil C stocks over time. Significant variability exists, but studies consistently show large C losses from agricultural ecosystems, supporting H1. Although steady-state C levels (H2) are commonly assumed, measuring C gains or losses in mature agroecosystems is challenging. Efforts to increase soil C storage (H3) have limited data due to the diversity of potential practices, compounded by substantial variability in soil C measurements. Here, long-term (7–17 year) ecosystem C flux data from diverse cropping systems revealed that conventionally tilled annual row crops (maize and soybean) act as significant long-term atmospheric C sources, challenging H2. Furthermore, conservation tillage practices reduced C losses compared with conventional tillage but showed minimal evidence for long-term ecosystem C storage, even after 20+ years. This indicates that no-till practices reduce C losses but imply that no soil C is added, challenging H3. By contrast, perennial Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum, and restored tallgrass prairie systems store C at the ecosystem scale more effectively than minimally tilled annual row crops. Analysis over multiple years demonstrates significant ecosystem C storage with perennial crops, varying by species, starting in the first year of transition. These findings, although focused on one region, suggest that the assumptions of steady-state C levels and increased storage from conservation practices do not universally apply and that significant changes to agroecosystems are required to increase C storage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Getting Hydrogen to the Gigaton Scale

Due to its ability to perform clean, efficient processes, hydrogen has long been promoted as the energy carrier of the future, but recent activity and advances suggest a tipping point has been reached as hydrogen is now being recognized by much of the world for its unique capabilities to strongly support global efforts in achieving climate neutrality. The coming decades will require a massive increase in the amount of hydrogen used in the energy system as well as a transition from largely thermochemical to predominantly electrochemical processes involving hydrogen. For this to happen, hydrogen will need to globally approach the gigaton-scale on an annual basis. Thus, before hydrogen can fully achieve its potential, challenges that need to be addressed include achieving scale and further research and development (R&D) advances.

climate neutrality↗
DOE OSTI2024

Conditional multi-step attribution for climate forcings

SAND2025-11608O Conditional multi-step attribution for climate forcings and its associated dataset present a framework for attributing a climate impacts, such as stratospheric warming or surface cooling, to a specific magnitude of climate forcing, such as stratospheric aerosol injection. The objective is to improve on existing methods that struggle to attribute highly noisy climate signals. This has potential broader use in climate security applications to identify and understand geoengineering and climate tipping point effects. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Swiler, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2022

Materials for electrification of everything: Moving toward sustainability

We report society is at a unique tipping point in a move from conventional fossil fuel based technologies to renewable sourced electrified technologies which can enable creating a carbon neutral or carbon negative energy economy. Many of the key approaches to achieving this transition in the critical areas of transportation, buildings and manufacturing depend on new materials and new approaches to rapidly increase electrification. This article reviews the overall energy landscape and highlights specific areas where new materials are critical to enabling transitions in energy storage, hydrogen utilization, transportation, buildings and the chemical industry and the articles on these topics that follow. How these transitions can be best integrated and the global societal impact of these transitions is also discussed. The development of new materials is instrumental in accelerating the move to a cleaner electrified society. The "electrification of everything" is increasingly important if we are to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change and materials will play a critical role realizing this goal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Parametric Vehicle Choice Modeling: ParaChoice

Assess the evolving integration potential of light-duty (LDV) and heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) technologies, fuels, and infrastructure and their contributions to lowering emissions and petroleum consumption. Leverage existing LDV and build HDV ParaChoice capability to conduct parametric analyses that explore the trade-space for key factors that influence consumer choice and technology, fuel and infrastructure development. ParaChoice provides the unique capability to examine tipping points and tradeoffs, and can help quantify the effects of and mitigate uncertainty introduced by data sources and assumptions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Critical Knowledge Gaps for Coastal Systems: Research Priorities for Coastal Regions of the Southeastern United States

Coastal watersheds and shorelines are home to 52% of the U.S. population and provide trillions of dollars of economic and ecosystem services each year. However, these regions are subject to increasing frequency and intensity of compounding hazards that generate substantial damages. Sea level rise is increasing flooding and salinization of low-lying areas; periodic storm surges push ocean water farther inland and increase salinity in freshwater resources. Changing weather patterns, water management, and land cover all affect water and sediment flow to the coast in ways that exacerbate extreme flooding and drought. These impacts eventually drive systems past tipping points and lead to rapid and often irreversible transformation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SPRUCE Warming Promotes the Use of Organic Matter as an Electron Acceptor in a Peatland: Supporting Data

These data are provided in support of the publication: Warming Promotes the Use of Organic Matter as an Electron Acceptor in a Peatland (Rush et al., 2021). Rush et al. (2021) reported on the effect of temperature on microbial organic matter reduction at the SPRUCE study site and S1 bog. Specifically, electron shuttling capacity (ESC), CH4 production, CO2 production, and acetate concentration were measured to explore both direct and indirect (through changes in soil quality and water-table level) effects of warming on microbial activity. Samples were collected in the summer of 2016 and 2017 depending on the experiment. This dataset contains five files in comma separated (*.csv) format. The SPRUCE Experiment Site is located in a Picea mariana [black spruce] Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

SPRUCE High-Resolution Minirhizotrons in an Experimentally-Warmed Peatland Provide an Unprecedented Glimpse at Fine Roots and their Fungal Partners: Supporting Data

Images were collected using first of their kind, non-destructive, high-resolution automated minirhizotrons (RhizoSystems, LLC) to assess the response of plant fine-root and fungal mycelium dynamics to elevated temperatures after 4-6 years of whole-ecosystem warming and exposure to elevated carbon dioxide concentrations (e[CO2]) in a peat bog where the SPRUCE (Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments) experiment is located. We focused on two SPRUCE experimental plots: Plot 10 has elevated temperature (+9°C) and plot 19 is a control (+0°C). Both have elevated carbon dioxide (e[CO2]). Changes in root and fungal abundance with warming were estimated from a timeseries of landscape-level mosaiced images for each plot by measuring the proportional abundance of five belowground classes: fine roots of vascular plants, ectomycorrhizas, fungal hyphae, fungal rhizomorphs, and fungal sporocarps. To examine root and fungal phenology responses to warming, the length per individual root or fungal structure (except fungal hyphae that did not grow linearly but rather increased in areal coverage) were measured per image area of a set of timeseries patch-level mosaiced images for each plot. The experimental work was conducted in a Picea mariana [black spruce] – Sphagnum spp. bog forest in northern Minnesota, 40 km north of Grand Rapids, in the USDA Forest Service Marcell Experimental Forest (MEF). This ecosystem, which is located at the southern margin of the boreal forest, is considered especially vulnerable to climate change and anticipated to be near its tipping point. These data were used in analyses published in Defrenne et al (2021). This dataset contains 5 data files in comma-separate values (*.csv) format and a compressed folder (*.zip) containing 383 JPEG (*.jpg) images. Data files contain landscape-level assessment of belowground class abundance, patch-level growth phenology, and environmental variables (originally published in Hanson et al., 2016 and Hanson et al 2020). Images were collected with automated minirhizotrons and analyzed for phenology. Additional metadata are provided: 5 data dictionaries and a file-level metadata file in comma-separate values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A stable 15-member bacterial SynCom promotes Brachypodium growth under drought stress

Introduction: Rhizosphere microbiomes are known to drive soil nutrient cycling and influence plant fitness during adverse environmental conditions. Field-derived robust Synthetic Communities (SynComs) of microbes mimicking the diversity of rhizosphere microbiomes can greatly advance a deeper understanding of such processes. However, assembling stable, genetically tractable, reproducible, and scalable SynComs remains challenging. Methods: Here, we present a systematic approach using a combination of network analysis and cultivation-guided methods to construct a 15-member SynCom from the rhizobiome of Brachypodium distachyon. This SynCom incorporates diverse strains from five bacterial phyla. Genomic analysis of the individual strains was performed to reveal encoded plant growth-promoting traits, including genes for the synthesis of osmoprotectants (trehalose and betaine) and Na+/K+ transporters, and some predicted traits were validated by laboratory phenotypic assays. Results: The SynCom demonstrates strong stability both in vitro and in planta. Most strains encoded multiple plant growth-promoting functions, and several of these were confirmed experimentally. The presence of osmoprotectant and ion transporter genes likely contributed to the observed resilience of Brachypodium to drought stress, where plants amended with the SynCom recovered better than those without. We further observed preferential colonization of SynCom strains around root tips under stress, likely due to active interactions between plant root metabolites and bacteria. Discussion: Our results demonstrate that trait-informed construction of synthetic communities can yield stable, functionally diverse consortia that enhance plant resilience under drought. Preferential colonization near root tips points to active, localized plant-microbe signaling as a component of stress-responsive recruitment. This stable SynCom provides a scalable platform for probing mechanisms of plant-microbe interaction and for developing microbiome-based strategies to improve soil and crop performance in variable environments.

Yadav, Archana↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding AMOC stability: the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is an important part of our climate system. The AMOC is predicted to weaken under climate change; however, theories suggest that it may have a tipping point beyond which recovery is difficult, hence showing quasi-irreversibility (hysteresis). Although hysteresis has been seen in simple models, it has been difficult to demonstrate in comprehensive global climate models. Here, we outline a set of experiments designed to explore AMOC hysteresis and sensitivity to additional freshwater input as part of the North Atlantic Hosing Model Intercomparison Project (NAHosMIP). These experiments include adding additional freshwater (hosing) for a fixed length of time to examine the rate and mechanisms of AMOC weakening and whether the AMOC subsequently recovers once hosing stops. Initial results are shown from eight climate models participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The AMOC weakens in all models as a result of the freshening, but once the freshening ceases, the AMOC recovers in half of the models, and in the other half it stays in a weakened state. The difference in model behaviour cannot be explained by the ocean model resolution or type nor by details of subgrid-scale parameterisations. Likewise, it cannot be explained by previously proposed properties of the mean climate state such as the strength of the salinity advection feedback. Instead, the AMOC recovery is determined by the climate state reached when hosing stops, with those experiments where the AMOC is weakest not experiencing a recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System (CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model (ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate & Forecasting (CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address the opportunities' needs. Novel opportunities in CMIP7 compared with previous phases will include running `emissions-driven' simulations that integrate carbon emissions and removal scenarios with updated representations of the global carbon cycle, expanded variable groups needed to model marine trophic interactions and biogeochemistry, and data needed to understand the risk of global tipping points, among others. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and support the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). We argue that CMIP7-ES data will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making. As an author group we also reflect on the evolution of the CMIP7-ES data request as a part of a deliberative process in support of the global CMIP program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗