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At least 55 records · Page 3

Deforestation triggering irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle

The Amazon is hypothesized to reach an irreversible ‘tipping point’ when deforestation slows the hydrological cycle sufficiently that tropical forest ecosystems cannot be sustained. However, inception of such a tipping point has not been supported by observations and the relevant links between deforestation and atmospheric moisture recycling are poorly understood. Here we show that reduction in evapotranspiration from 20 years of deforestation dried the atmosphere persistently and caused moisture decoupling, i.e. an opposite sign of moisture change between the lower and middle troposphere. Increased deforestation exacerbated the lower troposphere drying and caused it to penetrate deeper into the middle troposphere in the dry and transition seasons over monsoon forests and savannas. Deforestation induced warming-enhanced buoyant updrafts, elevated hot and dry air and thereby reduced downward mixing of water supplies from the tropical Atlantic that normally moisten the Amazon forests. The severe atmospheric desiccation in the southern and eastern Amazon cannot be compensated by enhanced water supplies from the Atlantic Ocean, demonstrating an irreversible transition in Amazon hydrological cycle exacerbated by rapid deforestation. The more recent drying through the seasons over rainforests and during the wet season over the transition zones from rainforests to monsoon forests and savannas, however, suggests a window of opportunity for preventing ecosystem collapse with forest conservation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the Robustness of Arctic Sea Ice Bi‐Stability in the Presence of Atmospheric Feedbacks

Abstract Arctic sea‐ice loss is influenced by multiple positive feedbacks, sparking concerns of accelerated loss in the coming years or even a tipping point, where a sea‐ice equilibrium disappears at a given CO 2 value and sea ice rapidly evolves to a new steady state. Such a tipping point would imply a bi‐stability of the Arctic climate—where multiple steady‐state Arctic climates are possible at the same CO 2 value. Previous works have sought to establish the existence of bi‐stability using a range of models, from zero‐dimensional sea ice thermodynamic models to fully coupled global climate models, with conflicting results. Here, we present a new model of the Arctic that includes both sea‐ice thermodynamics and key atmospheric feedbacks in a simple framework. We exploit the model's simplicity to identify physical mechanisms that control the timing and extent of sea‐ice bi‐stability, and the abruptness of ice loss. We show that longwave radiation feedbacks can have a strong influence on Arctic surface climate from atmospheric temperature increases alone, even without major contributions from clear‐sky moisture or convective clouds suggested previously. While winter sea‐ice bi‐stability is robust to changes in uncertain model parameters in this study, summer sea ice is more sensitive. Finally, our model indicates that positive feedbacks may modulate the CO 2 threshold of sea‐ice loss and the width of bi‐stability much more strongly than the abruptness of loss. These results lead to a comprehensive understanding of the conditions that favor Arctic sea‐ice bi‐stability, particularly the role of atmospheric feedbacks, in both future and past climates.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA’s Interest in 3GPP Mobile Telecommunications Protocols for Near Earth Space and the Lunar Surface

In the next several years, NASA intends to return astronauts to the Moon through the Artemis Program. Under Artemis, NASA plans to collaborate with commercial and international partners to establish a long-term presence on the Moon. Near-term Artemis missions will be analogous but much more sophisticated versions of the last couple of Apollo missions. For example, the first area expected to be explored by an Artemis mission is near the south pole as opposed to the mid-latitudes visited by the Apollo astronauts, which makes direct communications with Earth more complicated. Lunar infrastructure will eventually be built over time by many organizations, public and private, to support sustained human exploration, science, and industrial activities on the Moon. A robust lunar communications and navigation infrastructure will be essential to realizing this long-term vision. Meanwhile, on Earth, major advances are being made as5G mobile telecommunications rollout across the globe. Furthermore, the 3rdGeneration Partnership Project (3GPP) is beginning to define future 6G capabilities. NASA envisions a lunar communications and navigation network with capabilities similar to those of communication networks we enjoy here on Earth. Building such a network will require participation by many organizations. NASA’s Tipping Point program seeks industry-developed space technologies that can both foster commercial space capabilities and benefit future NASA missions. This paper provides an overview of NASA’s interest in 3GPPanddescribescurrent work based on 3GPP standards within NASA or funded by NASA, such as Nokia’s upcoming Tipping Point demonstration of 4G/LTE on the lunar surface in early 2023.

Bernard L Edwards↗

Climate Limits Across Space and Time on European Forest Structure

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limited by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Moreno, Adam La Salle↗

Cryogenic Fluid Management for the Artemis Program and Beyond

NASA is endeavoring on an ambitious return to the Moon and eventually on to Mars through the Artemis Program leveraging innovative technologies to establish sustainable exploration architectures collaborating with US commercial and international partners [1]. Future NASA architectures have baselined cryogenic propulsion systems to support lunar missions and ultimately future missions to Mars. NASA has been investing in maturing CFM active and passive storage, transfer, and gauging technologies over the last decade plus primarily focused on ground development with a few small-scale microgravity fluid experiments. Recently, NASA created a Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) Technology Roadmap identifying the critical gaps requiring further development to reach a technology readiness level (TRL) of 6 prior to infusion to flight applications. To address the technology gaps the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) strategically plans to invest in a diversified CFM portfolio approach through ground and flight demonstrations, collaborating with international partners, and leveraging Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) opportunities with US industry through the Tipping Point and Announcement of Collaborative Opportunities (ACO) solicitations. Once proven, these system capabilities will enable the high performing cryogenic propellant systems needed for the Artemis Program and beyond.

Cryogenic Fluid Management↗

A U.S. scientific community review of carbon cycle science gaps and opportunities to better support earth system science and carbon management

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions continue to grow, while natural carbon reservoirs are becoming increasingly vulnerable to anthropogenic pressures, climate extremes, and disturbance. These changes are impacting humans, ecosystems, and natural resources worldwide. Tracking and mitigating GHG emissions require a pivot to operational monitoring of regional carbon flux and stock changes. The current GHG observing system is addressing needs at two distinct scales: 1) Local scale (< 1 km), related to anthropogenic point source emissions, and 2) global scales (> 1000 km), related to land and ocean carbon sinks. More focus on intermediate (10–1000 km) scales is needed to more effectively monitor progress in reducing carbon emissions, enhancing removals, and maintaining sinks. Representatives from carbon cycle biomass and flux communities across United States government agencies and academic institutions met in September 2024 to discuss the rationale and scientific context for more effectively implementing an operational system for GHG monitoring in support of urban and national carbon management needs. To guide development of this system, we propose a multi-tiered global spaceborne observing framework for carbon flux and stock, prioritizing: 1) frequent GHG partial columns for carbon emissions and removals; 2) continuous time series and data fusion of biomass from Lidar and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) for carbon stocks, and 3) expanded coverage of tropical, high latitude, and oceanic regions to monitor carbon cycle tipping points and feedbacks. This system should be complemented by expanded surface and airborne networks for oceanic and terrestrial/aquatic ecosystems for calibration, ground truthing, and study of under-sampled regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗

Leveraging Electrons for Electrochemical CO 2 Capture Using a Hemi‐Labile Iron Complex

Climate change, driven by anthropogenic carbon emissions, demands urgent action to prevent a 2050 tipping point. With CO 2 levels at 427 ppm (50% above pre-industrial levels), deploying energy-efficient carbon capture technologies is crucial. Electrochemical carbon capture processes that have been touted to have the potential to meet these needs rely on the applied cell voltage, and electron utilization (CO 2 molecules separated per electron), which has generally been asserted to have a theoretical limit of one. Here, we introduce an electron-leveraging strategy to enhance electron utilization beyond this limit to 1.43 by employing Fe-EDDHA, a redox-active coordination complex having a ligand with multiple hemi-labile coordination sites. The reversibility and robustness of the system were enabled by the efficient prevention of CO 2 reduction upon the introduction of nicotinamide as a guardian of the iron(2+) center. The proof-of-concept cyclic system exhibits a minimum operational energy of 22.6 kJ e mol −1 and an average of 63.7 kJ e mol −1 over 29 cycles, using a simulated flue gas (15% CO 2 ). Our electron-leveraging strategy holds promise for advancing energy-efficient electrochemical carbon capture technologies, and offers an alternative to prevalent redox potential shifting methods proposed to mitigate undesired electron transfer reactions in redox-active materials across diverse operational conditions.

carbon storage↗

How ignition and target gain > 1 were achieved in inertial fusion

For many decades the running joke in fusion research has been that “fusion” is twenty years away and always will be. Yet, in 2023 we find ourselves in a position where we can talk about the milestones of burning plasmas, fusion ignition, and target energy gain greater than unity in the past tense – a situation that is remarkable! Herein this paper tells some of the story of the applied physics challenges that needed to be overcome to achieve these milestones and the strategy our team followed. Things did not always go well and some practical lessons learned are part of this story. The data shows, getting to a burning plasma in late 2020 and early 2021 was a key tipping-point, after which ignition (August 8, 2021) and target gain (December 5, 2022) were rapidly achieved.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Molecular and Dual-Isotopic Profiling of the Microbial Controls on Nitrogen Leaching in Agricultural Soils under Managed Aquifer Recharge

Nitrate (NO 3 – ) leaching is a serious health and ecological concern in global agroecosystems, particularly those under the application of agricultural-managed aquifer recharge (Ag-MAR); however, there is an absence of information on microbial controls affecting NO 3 – leaching outcomes. We combine natural dual isotopes of NO 3 – ( 15 N/ 14 N and 18 O/ 16 O) with metagenomics, quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and a threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to investigate the activities, taxon profiles, and environmental controls of soil microbiome associated with NO 3 – leaching at different depths from Californian vineyards under Ag-MAR application. The isotopic signatures demonstrated a significant priming effect (P < 0.01) of Ag-MAR on denitrification activities in the topsoil (0–10 cm), with a 12–25-fold increase of 15 N–NO 3 – and 18 O–NO 3 – after the first 24 h of flooding, followed by a sharp decrease in the enrichment of both isotopes with ~80% decline in denitrification activities thereafter. In contrast, deeper soils (60–100 cm) showed minimal or no denitrification activities over the course of Ag-MAR application, thus resulting in 10–20-fold of residual NO 3 – being leached. Metagenomic profiling and laboratory microcosm demonstrated that both nitrifying and denitrifying groups, responsible for controlling NO 3 – leaching, decreased in abundance and potential activity rates with soil depth. TITAN suggested that Nitrosocosmicus and Bradyrhizobium, as the major nitrifier and denitrifier, had the highest and lowest tipping points with regard to the NO 3 – changes (P < 0.05), respectively. Overall, our study provides new insight into specific depth limitations of microbial controls on soil NO 3 – leaching in agroecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities

Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6–35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Parasitic structure defect blights sustainability of cobalt-free single crystalline cathodes

Abstract Recent efforts to reduce battery costs and enhance sustainability have focused on eliminating Cobalt (Co) from cathode materials. While Co-free designs have shown notable success in polycrystalline cathodes, their impact on single crystalline (SC) cathodes remains less understood due to the significantly extended lithium diffusion pathways and the higher-temperature synthesis involved. Here, we reveal that removing Co from SC cathodes is structurally and electrochemically unfavorable, exhibiting unusual voltage fade behavior. Using multiscale diffraction and imaging techniques, we identify lithium-rich nanodomains (LRNDs) as a heterogeneous phase within the layered structure of Co-free SC cathodes. These LRNDs act as critical tipping points, inducing significant chemo-mechanical lattice strain and irreversible structural degradation, which exacerbates the voltage and capacity loss in electrochemical performance. Our findings highlight the considerable challenges of developing Co-free SC cathodes compared to polycrystalline ones and emphasize the need for new strategies to balance the interplay between cost, sustainability, and performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Knitting while Australia burns

A global biodiversity hotspot, Australia has reached a tipping point from which many of its forests may never recover. Record-breaking heat, drought and windy conditions have burned at least 10 million hectares. Halfway through the season, fires have persisted for months with no end in sight. Here, the continent faces an exponential rise in future wildfire risk as the climate warms and dries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modern temperatures in central–north Greenland warmest in past millennium

The Greenland Ice Sheet has a central role in the global climate system owing to its size, radiative effects and freshwater storage, and as a potential tipping point. Weather stations show that the coastal regions are warming, but the imprint of global warming in the central part of the ice sheet is unclear, owing to missing long-term observations. Current ice-core-based temperature reconstructions are ambiguous with respect to isolating global warming signatures from natural variability, because they are too noisy and do not include the most recent decades. By systematically redrilling ice cores, we created a high-quality reconstruction of central and north Greenland temperatures from ad 1000 until 2011. Here we show that the warming in the recent reconstructed decade exceeds the range of the pre-industrial temperature variability in the past millennium with virtual certainty (P < 0.001) and is on average 1.5 ± 0.4 degrees Celsius (1 standard error) warmer than the twentieth century. Our findings suggest that these exceptional temperatures arise from the superposition of natural variability with a long-term warming trend, apparent since ad 1800. The disproportionate warming is accompanied by enhanced Greenland meltwater run-off, implying that anthropogenic influence has also arrived in central and north Greenland, which might further accelerate the overall Greenland mass loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗