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African Equatorial and Subtropical Ozone Plumes: Recurrences Timescales of the Brown Cloud Trans-African Plumes and Other Plumes

We have found repeated illustrations in the maps of Total Tropospheric Ozone (TTO) of apparent transport of ozone from the Indian Ocean to the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Most interesting are examples that coincide with the INDOEX observations of late northern winter, 1999. Three soundings associated with the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) network help confirm and quantify degree of influence of pollution, lightning, and stratospheric sources, suggesting that perhaps 40% of increased Atlantic ozone could be Asian pollution during periods of maximum identified in the TTO maps. We outline recurrent periods of apparent ozone transport from Indian to Atlantic Ocean regions both during and outside the late-winter period. These are placed in the context of some general observations about factors controlling recurrence timescales for the expression of both equatorial and subtropical plumes. Low-level subtropical plumes are often controlled by frontal systems approaching the Namib coast; these direct mid-level air into either easterly equatorial plumes or westerly mid- troposphere plumes. Equatorial plumes of ozone cross Africa on an easterly path due to the occasional coincidence of two phenomena: (1) lofting of ozone to mid and upper levels, often in the Western Indian Ocean, and (2) the eastward extension of an Equatorial African easterly jet.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Genomic clocks and evolutionary timescales

For decades, molecular clocks have helped to illuminate the evolutionary timescale of life, but now genomic data pose a challenge for time estimation methods. It is unclear how to integrate data from many genes, each potentially evolving under a different model of substitution and at a different rate. Current methods can be grouped by the way the data are handled (genes considered separately or combined into a 'supergene') and the way gene-specific rate models are applied (global versus local clock). There are advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, and the optimal method has not yet emerged. Fortunately, time estimates inferred using many genes or proteins have greater precision and appear to be robust to different approaches.

Evolution, Molecular↗

A genomic timescale of prokaryote evolution: insights into the origin of methanogenesis, phototrophy, and the colonization of land

BACKGROUND: The timescale of prokaryote evolution has been difficult to reconstruct because of a limited fossil record and complexities associated with molecular clocks and deep divergences. However, the relatively large number of genome sequences currently available has provided a better opportunity to control for potential biases such as horizontal gene transfer and rate differences among lineages. We assembled a data set of sequences from 32 proteins (approximately 7600 amino acids) common to 72 species and estimated phylogenetic relationships and divergence times with a local clock method. RESULTS: Our phylogenetic results support most of the currently recognized higher-level groupings of prokaryotes. Of particular interest is a well-supported group of three major lineages of eubacteria (Actinobacteria, Deinococcus, and Cyanobacteria) that we call Terrabacteria and associate with an early colonization of land. Divergence time estimates for the major groups of eubacteria are between 2.5-3.2 billion years ago (Ga) while those for archaebacteria are mostly between 3.1-4.1 Ga. The time estimates suggest a Hadean origin of life (prior to 4.1 Ga), an early origin of methanogenesis (3.8-4.1 Ga), an origin of anaerobic methanotrophy after 3.1 Ga, an origin of phototrophy prior to 3.2 Ga, an early colonization of land 2.8-3.1 Ga, and an origin of aerobic methanotrophy 2.5-2.8 Ga. CONCLUSIONS: Our early time estimates for methanogenesis support the consideration of methane, in addition to carbon dioxide, as a greenhouse gas responsible for the early warming of the Earths' surface. Our divergence times for the origin of anaerobic methanotrophy are compatible with highly depleted carbon isotopic values found in rocks dated 2.8-2.6 Ga. An early origin of phototrophy is consistent with the earliest bacterial mats and structures identified as stromatolites, but a 2.6 Ga origin of cyanobacteria suggests that those Archean structures, if biologically produced, were made by anoxygenic photosynthesizers. The resistance to desiccation of Terrabacteria and their elaboration of photoprotective compounds suggests that the common ancestor of this group inhabited land. If true, then oxygenic photosynthesis may owe its origin to terrestrial adaptations.

Methane/metabolism↗

Microphysical Timescales in Clouds and their Application in Cloud-Resolving Modeling

Independent prognostic variables in cloud-resolving modeling are chosen on the basis of the analysis of microphysical timescales in clouds versus a time step for numerical integration. Two of them are the moist entropy and the total mixing ratio of airborne water with no contributions from precipitating particles. As a result, temperature can be diagnosed easily from those prognostic variables, and cloud microphysics be separated (or modularized) from moist thermodynamics. Numerical comparison experiments show that those prognostic variables can work well while a large time step (e.g., 10 s) is used for numerical integration.

Zeng, Xiping↗

Interferometric Testbed for Nanometer Level Stabilization of Environmental Motion Over Long Timescales

We developed an interferometric testbed to stabilize environmental motions over timescales of several hours and a lengthscale of 1m. Typically, thermal and seismic motions on the ground are larger than 1 micron over these scales, affecting the precision of more sensitive measurements. To suppress such motions, we built an active stabilization system composed of interferometric sensors, a hexapod actuator, and a frequency stabilized laser. With this stabilized testbed, environmental motions were suppressed down to nm level. This system will allow us to perform sensitive measurements, such as ground testing of LISA (Laser Interferometer Space Antenna), in the presence of environmental noise.

Numata, Kenji↗

Timescale of Petrogenetic Processes Recorded in the Mount Perkins Magma System, Northern Colorado River Extension Corridor, Arizona

The Miocene Mt. Perkins Pluton is a small composite intrusive body emplaced in the shallow crust as four separate phases during the earliest stages of crustal extension. Phase 1 (oldest) consists of isotropic hornblende gabbro and a layered cumulate sequence. Phase 2 consists of quartz monzonite to quartz monzodiorite hosting mafic microgranitoid enclaves. Phase 3 is composed of quartz monzonite and is subdivided into mafic enclave-rich zones and enclave-free zones. Phase 4 consists of aphanitic dikes of mafic, intermediate and felsic compositions hosting mafic enclaves. Phases 2-4 enclaves record significant isotopic disequilibrium with surrounding granitoid host rocks, but collectively enclaves and host rocks form a cogenetic suite exhibiting systematic variations in Nd-Sr-Pb isotopes that correlate with major and trace elements. Phases 2-4 record multiple episodes of magma mingling among cogenetic hybrid magmas that formed via magma mixing and fractional crystallization at a deeper crustal. The mafic end-member was alkali basalt similar to nearby 6-4 Ma basalt with enriched OIB-like trace elements and Nd-Sr-Pb isotopes. The felsic end-member was a subalkaline crustal-derived magma. Phase 1 isotropic gabbro exhibits elemental and isotopic compositional variations at relatively constant SiO2, suggesting generation of isotropic gabbro by an open-system process involving two mafic end-members. One end-member is similar in composition to the OIB-like mafic end-member for phases 2-4; the second is similar to nearby 11-8 Ma tholeiite basalt exhibiting low epsilon (sub Nd), and depleted incompatible trace elements. Phase 1 cumulates record in situ fractional crystallization of an OIB-like mafic magma with isotopic evidence of crustal contamination by partial melts generated in adjacent Proterozoic gneiss. The Mt Perkins pluton records a complex history in a lithospheric scale magma system involving two distinct mantle-derived mafic magmas and felsic magma sourced in the crust. Mixing and fractional crystallization of these magmas at various levels in the crust generated a suite of intermediate composition magmas. U-Pb zircon SHRIMP ages of phase 1 (15.7 +/- 0.2 Ma), phase 3 (15.8 +/- 0.2 Ma) and phase 4 (15.4 +/- 0.3 Ma) document a 100-300k year timescale for petrogenetic processes recorded in the Mt Perkins magma system.

Danielson, Lisa R.↗

A Statistical Analysis of the Accuracy of the Digitized Magnitudes of Photometric Plates on the Timescale of Decades with an Application to the Century-Long Light Curve of KIC 8462852

We present a statistical analysis of the accuracy of the digitized magnitudes of photometric plates on the timescale of decades. In our examination of archival Johnson B photometry from the Harvard DASCH archive, we find a median rt mean square scatter of light curves of the order of 0.15 magnitude over the range B approximately equal to 9-17 for all calibrations. Slight underlying systematics (trends or flux discontinuities) are on a level of less than or equal to 0.2 magnitudes per century (1889–1990) for the majority of constant stars. These historic data can be unambiguously used for processes that happen on scales of magnitudes, and need to be carefully examined in cases approaching the noise floor. The characterization of these limits in photometric stability may guide future studies in their use of plate archives. We explain these limitations for the example case of KIC 8462852, which has been claimed to dim by 0.16 magnitudes per century, and show that this trend cannot be considered as significant.

digitized magnitudes of photometric plates↗

Fluvial Volumes, Timescales, and Intermittency in Milna Crater, Mars

Ancient lake deposits and valley networks on Mars provide strong evidence that its surface was once modified by liquid water, but the extent of that modification is still debated. Ancient lacustrine deposits in Milna Crater provide insight into the timescale and fluid volume required to construct fluvially derived sedimentary deposits near the Noachian-Hesperian boundary. Placing the lacustrine deposits their regional context in Paraná Valles provides a quantitative measurement of the intermittency of large, water-mediated sediment transport events in that region.

Buhler, P.↗

STROBE-X: X-Ray Timing Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Microseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER, with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT, to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with approx. 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis.For the first time, the broad coverage provides simultaneous study of thermal components, non-thermal components, iron lines, and reflection features from a single platform for accreting black holes at all scales. The enormous collecting area allows detailed studies of the dense matter equation of state using both thermal emission from rotation-powered pulsars and harder emission from X-ray burst oscillations. The combination of the wide-field monitor and the sensitive pointed instruments enables observations of potential electromagnetic counterparts to LIGO and neutrino events. Additional extragalactic science, such as high quality spectroscopy of clusters of galaxies and unprecedented timing investigations of active galactic nuclei, is also obtained.

STROBE-X X-ray↗

STROBE-X: X-ray Timing & Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Milliseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER [1], with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT [2], to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with approx. 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis. For the first time, the broad coverage provides simultaneous study of thermal components, non-thermal components, iron lines, and reflection features from a single platform for accreting black holes at all scales. The enormous collecting area allows detailed studies of the dense matter equation of state using both thermal emission from rotation-powered pulsars and harder emission from X-ray burst oscillations. The combination of the wide-field monitor and the sensitive pointed instruments enables observations of potential electromagnetic counterparts to LIGO and neutrino events. Additional extragalactic science, such as high quality spectroscopy of clusters of galaxies and unprecedented timing investigations of active galactic nuclei, is also obtained

STROBE-↗

STROBE-X: X-ray Timing & Spectroscopy on Dynamical Timescales from Milliseconds to Years

We describe a probe-class mission concept that provides an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and 0.2-30 keV spectroscopy over timescales from microseconds to years. The Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X) has three key science drivers: (1) measuring the spin distribution of accreting black holes, (2) understanding the equation of state of dense matter, and (3) exploring the properties of the precursors and electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational wave sources. To perform these science investigations, STROBE-X comprises three primary instruments. The first uses an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto solid state detectors with CCD-level (85-130 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates to cover the 0.2-12 keV band. This technology is scaled up from NICER, with enhanced optics to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The second uses large-area collimated silicon drift detectors, developed for ESA's LOFT, to cover the 2-30 keV band. These two instruments each provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area compared with its predecessor (NICER and RXTE, respectively). Finally, a sensitive sky monitor triggers pointed observations, provides high duty cycle, high time resolution, high spectral resolution monitoring of the X-ray sky with ~20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE ASM, and enables multi-wavelength and multi-messenger studies on a continuous, rather than scanning basis. The STROBE-X mission concept is a rapidly repointable observatory in low-Earth orbit, similar to RXTE or Swift, and will be presented to the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey for consideration as a probe-class mission.

STROBE-X: X-ray↗

STROBE-X: A Probe-Class Mission for X-Ray Spectroscopy and Timing on Timescales from Microseconds to Years

We describe the Spectroscopic Time-Resolving Observatory for Broadband Energy X-rays (STROBE-X), a probe-class mission concept that will provide an unprecedented view of the X-ray sky, performing timing and spectroscopy over both a broad energy band (0.2-30 keV) and a wide range of timescales from microseconds to years. STROBE-X comprises two narrow-field instruments and a wide field monitor. The soft or low-energy band (0.2-12 keV) is covered by an array of lightweight optics (3-m focal length) that concentrate incident photons onto small solid-state detectors with CCD-level (85-175 eV) energy resolution, 100 ns time resolution, and low background rates. This technology has been fully developed for NICER and will be scaled up to take advantage of the longer focal length of STROBE-X. The higher-energy band (2-30 keV) is covered by large-area, collimated silicon drift detectors that were developed for the European LOFT mission concept. Each instrument will provide an order of magnitude improvement in effective area over its predecessor (NICER in the soft band and RXTE in the hard band). Finally, STROBE-X offers a sensitive wide-field monitor (WFM), both to act as a trigger for pointed observations of X-ray transients and also to provide high duty-cycle, high time-resolution, and high spectral-resolution monitoring of the variable X-ray sky. The WFM will boast approximately 20 times the sensitivity of the RXTE All-Sky Monitor, enabling multi-wavelength and multi-messenger investigations with a large instantaneous field of view. This mission concept will be presented to the 2020 Decadal Survey for consideration.

Ray, Paul S.↗

Mg Isotopic Compositions of Fine-Grained Ca-Al-Rich Inclusions from Reduced CV3 Chondrites and Implications on the Timescale of Nebular Condensation

Fine-grained Ca-Al-rich inclusions (FGIs) in carbonaceous chondrites are interpreted as aggregates of nebular gas-solid condensates that escaped significant melting [1]. Recent Al-Mg isotopic studies of small FGIs (<200 µm in size) from pristine CO3 chondrites have revealed significant variations in initial 26Al/27Al ratio, (26Al/27Al)(sub 0), spanning from 5.73×10(exp ˗5) to 8×10(exp ˗6) [2,3]. Importantly, [3] found a main CAI population characterized by (26Al/27Al)(sub 0) = 5.4×10(exp ˗5) that likely record the onset of dust condensation and initial coagulation events, followed by multiple thermal events over an extended time period. Thus far, a small number of large FGIs from CV3 chondrites have been analyzed, showing a narrower range of ( 26Al/27Al)(sub 0) = 5.27×10(exp ˗5) to 3.35×10(exp ˗5) [4-6], similar to those inferred from coarse-grained, igneous CAIs (CGIs) from CV3 chondrites [7]. These observed different ratios may raise a question if large FGIs in CV3 chondrites record a time interval from primary direct condensation of refractory solids to their aggregation and growth into larger inclusions. In this study, we present Al-Mg isotopic compositions of FGIs from reduced CV3 chondrites to better constrain their formation timescale relative to smaller FGIs in CO3 chondrites, as well as to CGIs in CV3 chondrites. This isotopic study is coordinated with a microstructural study to elucidate the origin and nature of FGIs in the petrologic and mineralogical context.

Han, J.↗

Quasars That Have Transitioned from Radio-quiet to Radio-loud on Decadal Timescales Revealed by VLASS and FIRST

We have performed a search over 3440 deg^2 of Epoch 1(2017–2019)of the Very Large Array Sky Survey to identify unobscured quasars in the optical(0.2 2500%)but roughly steady fluxes over a few months at 3 GHz are inconsistent with extrinsic variability due to propagation effects, thus favoring an intrinsic origin. We conclude that our sources are powerful quasars hosting compact/young jets. This challenges the generally accepted idea that “radio-loudness” is a property of the quasar/AGN population that remains fixed on human timescales. Our study suggests that frequent episodes of short-lived AGN jets that do not necessarily grow to large scales may be common at high redshift. We speculate that intermittent but powerful jets on subgalactic scales could interact with the interstellar medium, possibly driving feedback capable of influencing galaxy evolution

Kristina Nyland↗

On the Prediction of Surface Melt Over the Greenland Ice Sheet at NWP and S2S Timescales

Greenland surface melt “events” – encompassing large swaths of the ice sheet over approximately 4-10 day periods – have occurred with increasing frequency in the 21st Century. Surface processes are significant to the ice sheet’s overall contribution to sea level. In addition, the sudden onset of widespread surface melt produces hazardous conditions for researchers and for communities adjacent to the ice sheet. The mechanisms producing melt events, their associated large-scale forcing, and timescales of interest are highly variable and poorly understood. Here we examine the predictability of melt events in a numerical weather prediction system (NWP) and a subseasonal-to-seasonal system (S2S). The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office forward processing (GMAO-FP) is an NWP system that incorporates an evolving, global hybrid 4D ensemble–variational (4DEnVar) data assimilation system and a state-of-the-art model that is run twice-daily with forecasts out to five and ten days. The GMAO S2S system is a hindcast-anomaly, coupled-model prediction system initialized with an atmospheric analysis, and in situ and satellite ocean data assimilation. Both systems represent ice sheet surface hydrology and snowpack processes. We examine the performance of the systems over the period 2018-2023, a span that includes approximately nine significant events, against analyses and satellite-derived melt extent. In addition to extent, we examine related conditions and their role in the melt forecast, including the onset of both omega and Rex atmospheric blocking patterns, sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, water vapor transport, precipitation, and surface preconditioning. We further examine the tendency for false-alarm events in each system and assess reasons for the forecast performance. North Atlantic atmospheric blocking patterns leading to surface melt are well forecast by the NWP system out to around eight days, while the S2S system generally underestimates the magnitude of such events at monthly lead times. These systems suggest that while short term forecasts of ice sheet melt and melt events are relatively robust, S2S predictions of surface conditions are highly dependent on the ability of a coupled system to generate the short-term atmospheric conditions associated with surface melt events.

Richard Cullather↗