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DOE OSTI2025

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of Potential and Actual Evapotranspiration Fluxes Using Six Meteorological Data-Based Approaches for a Range of Climate and Land Cover Types

Evapotranspiration is the major component of the water cycle, so a correct estimate of this variable is fundamental. The purpose of the present research is to assess the monthly scale accuracy of six meteorological data-based models in the prediction of evapotranspiration (ET) losses by comparing the modelled fluxes with the observed ones from eight sites equipped with eddy covariance stations which differ in terms of vegetation and climate type. Three potential ET methods (Penman-Monteith, Priestley-Taylor, and Blaney-Criddle models) and three actual ET models (the Advection-Aridity, the Granger and Gray, and the Antecedent Precipitation Index method) have been proposed. The findings show that the models performances differ from site to site and they depend on the vegetation and climate characteristics. Indeed, they show a wide range of error values ranging from 0.18 to 2.78. It has been not possible to identify a single model able to outperform the others in each biome, but in general, the Advection-Aridity approach seems to be the most accurate, especially when the model calibration in not carried out. It returns very low error values close to 0.38. When the calibration procedure is performed, the most accurate model is the Granger and Gray approach with minimum error of 0.13 but, at the same time, it is the most impacted by this process, and therefore, in a context of data scarcity, it results the less recommended for ET prediction. The performances of the investigated ET approaches have been furthermore tested in case of lack of measured data of soil heat fluxes and net radiation considering using empirical relationships based on meteorological data to derive these variables. Results show that, the use of empirical formulas to derive ET estimates increases the errors up to 200% with the consequent loss of model accuracy.

net radiation↗

DOE OSTI2024

A structural equation modeling approach to leveraging the power of extant sentiment analysis tools

Machine-derived sentiment analysis has become a pervasive and useful tool to address a wide array of issues in natural language processing. Leading technology companies such as Google now provide sentiment analysis tools (SATs) as readily accessible online products. Academic researchers develop and make available SATs to support the research enterprise. One of the major challenges with SATs is the inconsistencies in results among the various SATs. Consequently, the selection of a SAT for a specific purpose may significantly impact the application. This study addresses the foregoing problem by utilizing structural equation modeling to merge the outputs of SATs to develop a combined sentiment metric without the need for a labeled training dataset. This method is applicable to a wide range of text-based problems, is data-driven, and replicable. It was tested using three publicly available datasets and compared against seven different SATs. The results indicate that as a continous measure, the proposed method outperformed other SATs in the movie reviews and SemEval datasets, and achieved a tie for first place with IBM Watson on the Sentiment 140 dataset. Also, compared to the published major alternatives, the arithmetic mean solution, this approach performed better across these three datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

The dark energy survey supernova program: investigating beyond-ΛCDM

We report constraints on a variety of non-standard cosmological models using the full 5-yr photometrically classified type Ia supernova sample from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-SN5YR). Both Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Suspiciousness calculations find no strong evidence for or against any of the non-standard models we explore. When combined with external probes, the AIC and Suspiciousness agree that 11 of the 15 models are moderately preferred over Flat-|$\Lambda$|CDM suggesting additional flexibility in our cosmological models may be required beyond the cosmological constant. We also provide a detailed discussion of all cosmological assumptions that appear in the DES supernova cosmology analyses, evaluate their impact, and provide guidance on using the DES Hubble diagram to test non-standard models. An approximate cosmological model, used to perform bias corrections to the data holds the biggest potential for harbouring cosmological assumptions. We show that even if the approximate cosmological model is constructed with a matter density shifted by |$\Delta \Omega _{\rm m}\sim 0.2$| from the true matter density of a simulated data set the bias that arises is subdominant to statistical uncertainties. Nevertheless, we present and validate a methodology to reduce this bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Utilization of Carbon Supply Chain Wastes and Byproducts to Manufacture Graphite for Energy Storage Applications

This project explored how coal and waste coal can be transformed into high-value graphite used in batteries for electric vehicles and power grids. A manufacturing technique that converts coal into carbon foam and subsequently graphite was developed and refined to improve the thermal and mechanical properties of the resulting materials. Cost-effectiveness and environmental impacts were also evaluated. Coal-derived graphite, especially when processed at high temperatures, was shown to perform comparably to commercial graphite in battery tests. Advanced computer simulations were used to model battery behavior and predict long-term performance, demonstrating that coal-based graphite has the potential to support electric vehicle deployment while reducing reliance on imported materials. This work offers a promising pathway for cleaner energy storage solutions and creates economic opportunities for coal-reliant communities by generating new uses for mining byproducts.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Engineered Barrier Systems FY20 Report

This report describes research and development (R&D) activities conducted during fiscal year 2020 (FY20) specifically related to the Engineered Barrier System (EBS) R&D Work Package in the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) Campaign supported by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE). The R&D activities focus on understanding EBS component evolution and interactions within the EBS, as well as interactions between the host media and the EBS. A primary goal is to advance the development of process models that can be implemented directly within the Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) platform or that can contribute to the safety case in some manner such as building confidence, providing further insight into the processes being modeled, establishing better constraints on barrier performance, etc. The FY20 EBS activities involved not only modeling and analysis work, but experimental work as well. Despite delays to some planned activities due to COVID-19 precautions, progress was made during FY20 in multiple research areas and documented in this report as follows: (1) EBS Task Force: Task 9/FEBEX Modeling Final Report: Thermo-Hydrological Modeling with PFLOTRAN, (2) preliminary sensitivity analysis for the FEBEX in-situ heater test, (3) cement-carbonate rock interaction under saturated conditions: from laboratory to modeling, (4) hydrothermal experiments, (5) progress on investigating the high temperature behavior of the uranyl-carbonate complexes, (6) in-situ and electrochemical work for model validation, (7) investigation of the impact of high temperature on EBS bentonite with THMC modeling, (8) sorption and diffusion experiments on bentonite, (9) chemical controls on montmorillonite structure and swelling pressure, (10) microscopic origins of coupled transport processes in bentonite, (11) understanding the THMC evolution of bentonite in FEBEX-DP—coupled THMC modeling, (12) modeling in support of HotBENT, an experiment studying the effects of high temperatures on clay buffers/near-field, and (13) high temperature heating and hydration column test on bentonite.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Determination of the Impact of Alkaline Earth Metals on Crystalline Silicotitanate

Savannah River Remediation (SRR) recently deployed the Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) system which utilizes an ion exchange process to remove 137 Cs from tank waste supernate. In TCCR, salt solution is filtered and then passed through ion exchange columns containing crystalline silicotitanate (CST) media, commercially known as UOP IONSIV™ R9120-B, which is highly selective for removing cesium. The current process focuses on dissolving salt in Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 10H, followed by processing in the TCCR skid located near the tank. Prior to processing each batch of waste generated in Tank 10H, the projected maximum cesium loading on the CST is determined using an in-tank batch contact equilibrium test. This involves placing a small amount (~0.1 g) of CST in a “teabag” device and submerging it in the tank waste for a period of 10 days. Results from those earlier teabag tests had indicated much lower cesium loading than predicted by the equilibrium sorption model (ZAM). There are numerous possible explanations for this result; however, based on the observed loadings of Ca (and other metals) on the CST from the teabag tests, it was hypothesized that competition from these other ions may be limiting the cesium loadings.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cesium Removal and Hydraulic Performance Comparisons of CST Ion Exchange Media Batches in Support of the Tank Closure Cesium Removal Project - 20522

Three batches of Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST) ion exchange media have been evaluated for cesium removal efficiency from a Savannah River Site (SRS) High Level Waste (HLW) supernate simulant in support of the Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) Project, which involves at-tank column waste treatment. Results will be utilized to select the CST media batch to be added to the next TCCR unit columns. Two of the CST media samples were recent production batches and the third was an archived batch studied extensively at SRS nearly two decades ago. The archived CST batch had a significantly smaller average particle diameter than more recent batches. Small-scale (∼23 mL), side-by-side column tests were conducted at 35 deg. C with each of the CST batches using the same simulant at flow rates near 1.2 mL/min (3.0-3.4 CST bed volumes/hr). The cesium ion exchange column performance results were lower than expected for all three CST batches, but the data indicated that 30% more simulant volume and 40% more equivalent CST bed volumes of solution can be processed with the older CST batch prior to reaching the 50% cesium breakthrough point than can be processed with the newer CST batches. Hydraulic evaluations of the CST columns were also conducted in simulant at 24 deg. C to determine the impact of the different particle size distributions and associated bed porosities on frictional pressure drop under dynamic flow conditions. Higher differential pressure drops were observed with the archived CST batch relative to recent production batches, due to the smaller particle size distribution and the packing characteristics of the archived batch. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Higher Wood Density Lowers Feedstock Cost and Has Minimal Impact on Biomass Conversion to Biofuels

Poplar and other woody feedstocks have the potential to provide up to 200 million tons of biomass per year that can be converted to liquid fuels. Most forestry strategies that aim to increase biomass productivity per hectare rely on short rotation plantations of fast-growing varieties. The improvement of the wood density as a key trait itself has largely been overlooked. We evaluated natural variation in wood density across a population of genetically diverse Populus trichocarpa trees grown in a common garden. Wood density varies greatly within this population but is heritable; higher wood density was not systematically associated with reduced growth, challenging assumptions of a trade-off between wood density and biomass accumulation. Furthermore, denser wood led to significant improvements throughout the supply chain including lowering biomass production and transportation costs. Higher density did not correlate with changes in biomass composition. Density did not impact bioconversion in the two feedstock-to-fuel pipelines tested (pretreatment by ionic liquids and fermentation to bisabolene or soaking in aqueous ammonia and fermentation to ethanol) on a representative subset of poplars. These findings highlight wood density as a promising breeding target for accelerating the development of high-yielding, conversion-efficient bioenergy crops and as an avenue for increasing landuse efficiency and reducing biomass transportation cost.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Lifetime extension drop-test of real-world corroded 5 Quart Hagan nuclear material storage container

A 5Qt Hagan container with a 20-year history of nuclear material storage was challenged with three successive drop tests at a height of 3.7 meters. The total mass of the test package was 12.1 kg. The 1st and 2nd drop tests (center of gravity over the container bottom corner but 180 degrees apart on the container bottom face) passed the pre- and post- impact helium leak criterion at less than 1.00E-6 atm-cc/sec (ambient cubic centimeters per second). The 3rd and final test (center of gravity over top corner) failed with a post-impact gross leak of 1.1E-1 atmcc/sec. The RRFMC (Respirable Release Fraction Measurement Chamber) is a drop tower test system that is critical for the sustainability of the SAVY-4000™ series and Hagan-type (NFT Inc. Golden CO) nuclear material storage containers. These are the primary in-use nuclear material storage container types at the Los Alamos National Laboratory TA-55 facility. Results are presented to expand the technical knowledge basis for container lifetime, regarding actual exposure to corrosive gas species on the container inner surfaces. The primary source of general corrosion throughout the container is gaseous hydrogen chloride (HCl). This gas is generated by the degradation of the polyvinylchloride (PVC) bag-out bag. Additionally, in most cases, the nuclear material itself also releases HCl gas (due to residual chemical components associated with the material formation). The RRFMC drop tower gives the end-user the ability record and analyze high-speed video and photography and if needed aerosol mass release measurements. In this report the principal issue is the physical deformation of the 5Qt Hagan container. There were no mass release experiments of test aerosol mass in the present study.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

DCMIP2016: the tropical cyclone test case

This paper describes and analyzes the Reed–Jablonowski (RJ) tropical cyclone (TC) test case used in the 2016 Dynamical Core Model Intercomparison Project (DCMIP2016). This intermediate-complexity test case analyzes the evolution of a weak vortex into a TC in an idealized tropical environment. Reference solutions from nine general circulation models (GCMs) with identical simplified physics parameterization packages that participated in DCMIP2016 are analyzed in this study at 50 km horizontal grid spacing, with five of these models also providing solutions at 25 km grid spacing. Evolution of minimum surface pressure (MSP) and maximum 1 km azimuthally averaged wind speed (MWS), the wind–pressure relationship, radial profiles of wind speed and surface pressure, and wind composites are presented for all participating GCMs at both horizontal grid spacings. While all TCs undergo a similar evolution process, some reach significantly higher intensities than others, ultimately impacting their horizontal and vertical structures. TCs simulated at 25 km grid spacings retain these differences but reach higher intensities and are more compact than their 50 km counterparts. These results indicate that dynamical core choice is an essential factor in GCM development, and future work should be conducted to explore how specific differences within the dynamical core affect TC behavior in GCMs.

Willson, Justin L.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Resilience Measurement Framework For Post-deployment Artificial Intelligence (ai) Integrated Systems

Resilience is largely defined as the ability to adapt or recover from adverse conditions, stresses, attacks, or compromises on systems that use or are enabled by digital resources. In Artificial Intelligence Management and Research for Advanced Networked Testbed Hub (AMARANTH), resilience is measured in the amount of time it took from the beginning of a testing period for the model to reach predictions outside of the original 95% confidence interval or using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence theorem, the Population Stability Index (PSI), and traditional methods such as root mean squared error (RMSE) threshold. Artificial Intelligence (AI) model drift is of significant concern when deploying AI-integrated systems into critical and/or secure environments. Drift can impact resilience of the AI-integrated system post-deployment and requires consistent maintenance and upkeep to ensure the model is accurate and precise. To quantify model drift and predict the point when a model's drift becomes unacceptable, we describe using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, Population Stability Index (PSI) and/or confidence interval width estimations to determine the point of failure and time to failure of a model post-deployment. Through simple code functions, the KL-divergence, PSI, confidence interval, and root mean squared (RMSE) point of failures can be used to derive when a model needs to be maintained as well as the impact of adversarial action through statistical means.

Yockey, Patience [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗

DOE OSTI2023

Arabidopsis stromal carbonic anhydrases exhibit non–overlapping roles in photosynthetic efficiency and development

Carbonic anhydrases (CAs) are ubiquitous enzymes that accelerate the reversible conversion of CO 2 to HCO 3 – . The Arabidopsis genome encodes members of the α-, β- and γ-CA families, and it has been hypothesized that βCA activity has a role in photosynthesis. In this work, we tested this hypothesis by characterizing the two plastidial βCAs, βCA1 and βCA5, in physiological conditions of growth. We conclusively established that both proteins are localized in the chloroplast stroma and that the loss of βCA5 induced the expression of βCA1, supporting the existence of regulatory mechanisms to control the expression of stromal βCAs. We also established that βCA1 and βCA5 have markedly different enzymatic kinetics and physiological relevance. Specifically, we found that βCA5 had a first-order rate constant ~10-fold lower than βCA1, and that the loss of βCA5 is detrimental to growth and could be rescued by high CO 2 . Furthermore, we established that, while a βCA1 mutation showed near wild-type growth and no significant impact on photosynthetic efficiency, the loss of βCA5 markedly disrupted photosynthetic efficiency and light-harvesting capacity at ambient CO 2 . Therefore, we conclude that in physiological autotrophic growth, the loss of the more highly expressed βCA1 does not compensate for the loss of a less active βCA5, which in turn is involved in growth and photosynthesis at ambient CO 2 levels. These results lend support to the hypothesis that, in Arabidopsis,βCAs have non-overlapping roles in photosynthesis and identify a critical activity of stromal βCA5 and a dispensable role for βCA1.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate Forcing of Bioenergy Feedstocks: Insights From Carbon and Energy Flux Measurements

Bioenergy from biofuels has the potential to slow growing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations by reducing fossil fuel use. However, growing bioenergy feedstocks is a land-intensive process. In the United States, the recent expansion of maize bioethanol has presented some environmental costs, prompting the development of several alternative bioenergy feedstocks. These feedstocks, selected in part for traits associated with ecosystem services, may provide opportunities for environmental benefits beyond fossil fuel displacement. We hypothesized that these bioenergy ecosystems will provide direct climatic cooling through their influence on carbon and radiative energy fluxes (i.e., through albedo). To test this hypothesis, we investigated the potential cooling effect of five current or potential bioenergy feedstocks using multi-year records from eddy covariance towers. Perennial feedstocks were carbon sinks, with an annual mean net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of –2.7 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for miscanthus, –0.8 ± 1.1 Mg C ha –1 for switchgrass, and –1.4 ± 0.7 Mg C ha –1 for prairie. In contrast, annual rotations were generally carbon sources, with an annual mean NECB of 2.6 ± 2.4 Mg C ha –1 for maize-soy and 3.2 ± 2.1 Mg C ha –1 for sorghum-soy. Using maize-soy as a baseline, conversion to alternative feedstocks increased albedo, inducing further cooling. This effect was strongest for miscanthus, with –3.5 ± 2.0 W m –2 of radiative forcing, and weakest for sorghum, with –1.4 ± 1.4 W m –2 . When feedstock effects on carbon and albedo were compared using carbon equivalents, carbon fluxes were the stronger ecosystem effect, underscoring the role of perennial species as effective carbon sinks. This work highlights the impact of feedstock choice on ecosystem processes as an element of bioenergy land conversion strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uranium nitride (UN) pellets with controllable microstructure and phase – fabrication by spark plasma sintering and their thermal-mechanical and oxidation properties

Dense uranium mononitride (UN) pellets with controlled microstructures and tailored grain size from large-grained to a few microns are synthesized by spark plasma sintering (SPS) combined with high energy ball milling. The impacts of the sintering conditions on fuel microstructure, grain size, physical density, and phase behavior are systematically investigated, and the thermal-mechanical properties and oxidation behavior of the SPS densified UN pellets are characterized. Higher sintering temperatures and longer ball milling durations and thus finer starting UN powders promote sintering and densification, and dense UN pellets above 95% theoretical density can be achieved by SPS at 1873 K for 10 min. UN phase purity is maintained in the SPS-densified pellets sintered at a lower temperature and short duration. A phase heterogeneity with secondary UO 2 or uranium sesquinitride (U 2 N 3 ) occurs for the UN pellets sintered at higher temperatures using finer UN powders. The hardness and fracture toughness of the SPS-densified UN pellets increase with smaller grain sizes and higher densities to 7.9 GPa and 3.5 MPa m 1/2 , respectively. Furthermore, both small (1–2 μm) and large grain-sized (30–50 µm) UN pellets exhibit good thermal conductivity. Dynamic oxidation testing by a thermogravimetric analyzer in air shows that the onset temperature for oxidation varies with microstructure and phase heterogeneity of the SPS densified UN pellets. Particularly, the smaller-grained (micron-sized) UN pellets containing uranium oxides and U 2 N 3 display lower weight gain and significantly-reduced oxidation kinetics, and full oxidation completes at a temperature above 1173 K when tested with a ramp rate of 10 K/min.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microbial potentiometric sensor technology for real-time detecting and monitoring of toxic metals in aquatic matrices

Considering that toxic metals can affect metabolic processes in microorganisms adversely, it can be hypothesized that these metals in water matrices would induce a decrease in metabolic activity of the biofilm microorganisms populating the surface of a sensing electrode, which could be registered as a change in the open-circuit potential (OCP) generated by the biofilm microorganisms. The goal of this study was to test this hypothesis and demonstrate the underlying principle that microbial potentiometric sensor (MPS) technology could be used for long-term and real-time monitoring and detection of rapid changes in metal concentrations in realistic aquatic environments. To address the goal, four objective were addressed: (1) a batch reactor with three graphite-based MPS electrodes was fabricated; (2) a set of single-ion solutions and one multiple ion solution were prepared reflecting realistic concentrations of metals found in electroplating wastewaters; (3) the responses of the MPS to the simultaneous presence of multiple toxic metal ions in a single solution were measured; and (4) the changes of the MPS signals to the presence of individual metal ion solutions were examined. While the hypothesis was validated, the study also revealed that the MPS was sufficiently sensitive to not only detect, but also quantify, toxic metal ion concentrations in aqueous solutions. The coefficients of determination, which were R 2 > 0.995, and responsiveness of <1 μmol/L for some toxic metal cations, strongly support the performance of MPS technology in the echelons of expensive analytical tools capable detecting and measuring trace elements.The magnitude of the MPS response was toxic metal specific. When the molar concertation normalizes the inhibition portion of the signal area, the assessed sensitivity order was: Se>Cd>Pb>Ag>Ni> Zn. The study provides valuable information for enforcement agents, environmental professionals, and wastewater treatment operators, so toxic metal pollution and its detrimental impacts can be prevented and mitigated.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of ceramic fuel powder packing fractions to support INFLUX

Triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS)-based structures show marked potential in novel nuclear reactor fuel designs, as their high surface area-to-volume ratio increases the efficiency of heat transfer out of the fuel, enabling safer, more innovative reactor designs. This milestone report addresses the role of dUO 2 powder processing route on the fill behavior of TPMS-based cladding shells to understand and advance the feasibility of manufacturing TPMS-based nuclear fuel forms. dUO 2 powder was processed through either a dry granulation route, varying consolidation pressure, or through milling, varying milling time, milling method and milled size distribution. The lowest tapped bulk densities (TBD), but best powder flowabilities, were obtained when testing unprocessed dUO 2 powder which was prone to self-agglomeration and formed low-density spheroids. The highest TBD and lowest flowabilities were obtained when using powder produced by hammer-milling dUO 2 powder to pass through a 200-mesh sieve, which led to particles with angular morphologies. Powder produced by dry granulation exhibited TBD that varied according to the consolidation pressure used to form the initial pellets and exhibited improved flowabilities when compared to hammer-milled material. Because of the large span of granule sizes formed as well as the irregular shape associated with the granules, a packing fraction of 0.69 was achieved, exceeding the analytical solution for random close packing of mono-sized spheres. TPMS polymer shells were loaded with unprocessed, granulated, and hammer-milled dUO 2 powders, and their qualitative packing behaviors were analyzed using x-ray computed tomography (xCT). TBDs calculated after loading TPMS polymer shells were 10-20% lower when compared to tapped bulk density measurements taken in a glass graduated cylinder, indicating a non-trivial impact on the tapped bulk density of either the TPMS channel size, TPMS channel surface material, powder cohesiveness, or a combination of the two parameters. A metallic zircaloy-4 TPMS shell will be loaded with hammer-milled dUO 2 powder upon receipt of the shell from Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and shipped to Idaho National Labs (INL) for subsequent hot isostatic pressing (HIP) densification experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗