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FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Optically multiplexed neutron time-of-flight technique for inertial confinement fusion

Neutron time-of-flight (nTOF) detectors are crucial in diagnosing the performance of inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, which implode targets of deuterium–tritium fuel to achieve thermonuclear conditions. These detectors utilize the fusion neutron energy spectrum to extract key measurements, including the hotspot ion temperature and fuel areal density. Previous work [Danly et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 94, 043502 (2023)] has demonstrated adding 1D spatial resolution to an nTOF-like detector using a neutron aperture and streak camera to measure the ion temperature profile of an ICF implosion. By contrast, the study presented herein explores modifying the 1D detector to use a fast photomultiplier tube (PMT) to validate the design of a 2D spatially resolved instrument based on reconstruction from 1D profiles. The modification would collect time-of-flight traces from separate scintillators in an imaging array with one PMT using optical fibers of varying lengths to time-multiplex the signals. This technique has been demonstrated in ride-along experiments on the OMEGA laser with 20 fiber-coupled scintillator channels connected to a Photek PMT210. Results provide constraints on the fiber lengths and PMT gating requirements to promote pulse fidelity throughout all channels. Calibration of the detector to fixed nTOFs can provide a preliminary estimate of the instrument response function (IRF), although measurement of the IRF is currently under way. These results suggest that nTOF signals can potentially be time-multiplexed with fibers so long as the design is strategic to mitigate signal-to-noise reduction, modal dispersion, and charge build-up in the PMT, which has implications beyond ion temperature imaging.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

ATom (Acoustic Tomography Processing Suite) [SWR-24-120]

Acoustic tomography seeks the best-fit fluctuating velocity and temperature fields that explain a collection of signal travel times in a region of interest. This codebase defines an end-to-end framework for executing turbulent field retrievals from acoustic signals, acoustic signal design and processing tools for the physical array, and analysis tool that leverage virtual acoustic tomography arrays based on large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary layer.

Hamilton, Nicholas↗

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A new probe of μ Hz gravitational waves with FRB timing

We propose Fast Radio Burst (FRB) timing, which uses the precision measurements of the arrival time differences of repeated FRB signals along multiple sightlines, as a new probe of gravitational waves (GWs) around nHz to μHz frequencies, with the highest frequency limited by FRB repeating period. The anticipated experiment requires a sightline separation of tens of AU, achieved by sending radio telescopes to space. We find the signal of arrival time difference induced by GWs depends only on the local GWs in the solar system and we can correlate the measurements from different FRB sources or the same source with different repeaters, which leads to a better sensitivity with a larger number of FRB repeaters detected. Here, the projected sensitivity shows this method is a competitive probe in the nHz to μ Hz frequency range. It can fill the 'μHz gap' between pulsar timing arrays and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and is complementary to other proposals of GW detection in this frequency band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A new probe of μ Hz gravitational waves with FRB timing

We propose Fast Radio Burst (FRB) timing, which uses the precision measurements of the arrival time differences of repeated FRB signals along multiple sightlines, as a new probe of gravitational waves (GWs) around nHz to μ Hz frequencies, with the highest frequency limited by FRB repeating period. The anticipated experiment requires a sightline separation of tens of AU, achieved by sending radio telescopes to space. We find the signal of arrival time difference induced by GWs depends only on the local GWs in the solar system and we can correlate the measurements from different FRB sources or the same source with different repeaters, which leads to a better sensitivity with a larger number of FRB events detected. The projected sensitivity shows this method is a competitive probe in the nHz to μ Hz frequency range. It can fill the ‘ μ Hz gap’ between pulsar timing arrays and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and is complementary to other proposals of GW detection in this frequency band.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Background cancellation for frequency-selective quantum sensing

A key challenge in quantum sensing is the detection of weak time dependent signals, particularly those that arise as specific frequency perturbations over a background field. Conventional methods usually demand complex dynamical control of the quantum sensor and heavy classical post-processing. We propose a quantum sensor that leverages time independent interactions and entanglement to function as a passive, tunable, thresholded frequency filter. By encoding the frequency selectivity and thresholding behavior directly into the dynamics, the sensor is responsive only to a target frequency of choice whose amplitude is above a threshold. This approach circumvents the need for complex control schemes and reduces the post-processing overhead.

Puig, Ricard [Los Alamos; Ecole Polytechnique, Lau↗

Sensitivity of nEXO to 136 Xe charged-current interactions: Background-free searches for solar neutrinos and fermionic dark matter

We study the sensitivity of nEXO to solar neutrino charged-current interactions, 𝜈 𝑒 + 136 Xe → 136 Cs*+𝑒 − , as well as analogous interactions predicted by models of fermionic dark matter. Due to the recently observed low-lying isomeric states of 136 Cs, these interactions will create a time-delayed coincident signal observable in the scintillation channel. Here we develop a detailed Monte Carlo simulation of scintillation emission, propagation, and detection in the nEXO detector to model these signals under different assumptions about the timing resolution of the photosensor readout. We show this correlated signal can be used to achieve background discrimination on the order of 10 −9 , enabling nEXO to make background-free measurements of solar neutrinos above the reaction threshold of 0.668 MeV. We project that nEXO could measure the flux of neutrinos from the carbon-nitrogen-oxygen cycle with a statistical uncertainty of 25%, thus contributing a novel and competitive measurement toward addressing the solar metallicity problem. Additionally, nEXO could measure the mean energy of the 7 Be neutrinos with a precision of 𝜎 ≤ 1.5 keV and could determine the survival probability of 7 Be and pep solar 𝜈𝑒 with precision comparable to the state of the art. These quantities are sensitive to the Sun’s core temperature and to nonstandard neutrino interactions, respectively. Here, the strong background suppression would allow nEXO to search for charged-current interactions of fermionic dark matter in the mass range 𝑚 𝜒 = 0.668–7 MeV with a sensitivity up to three orders of magnitude better than current limits.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

WaveDP

We developed a robust deep learning model designed to effectively reduce background noise and measure signal arrival times from seismic waveforms. This model processes a 57-second, three-component seismogram to predict the probability of Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves for each timestamp, while also generating a denoised seismogram. Training was conducted using the benchmark STEAD dataset, which includes globally distributed earthquake signals recorded at local distances ranging from 0 to 350 kilometers.

Chai, Chengping [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

Using time reversal with long duration broadband noise signals to achieve high amplitude and a desired spectrum at a target location

Time Reversal (TR) is a signal processing technique that can be used to focus acoustic waves to a specific location in space, with most applications aiming to create an impulsive focus. Here, this study instead aims to focus long-duration noise signals using TR. This paper seeks to generate higher amplitude noise at a desired location over an existing method of broadcasting equalized noise. Additionally, this paper explores various characteristics associated with focusing long duration noise using TR. The dependence of the focal amplitude on the duration of the focused signal is explored as well as the implications of using multiple sources when focusing noise. The focal amplitude decreases with longer duration and then levels off when the duration exceeds a few seconds. Coherent addition of focused noise is observed if all loudspeakers have coherent noise signals convolved with their reversed impulse responses. Lastly, focusing noise with a desired spectrum is explored.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: R eionization kSZ trispectrum methodology and limits

Patchy reionization generates kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB). Large-scale velocity perturbations along the line of sight modulate the small-scale kSZ power spectrum, leading to a trispectrum (or four-point function) in the CMB that depends on the physics of reionization. We investigate the challenges in detecting this trispectrum and use tools developed for CMB lensing, such as realization-dependent bias subtraction and cross-correlation based estimators, to counter uncertainties in the instrumental noise and assumed CMB power spectrum. We also find that both lensing and extragalactic foregrounds can impart larger trispectrum contributions than the reionization kSZ signal. We present a range of mitigation methods for both of these sources of contamination, validated on microwave-sky simulations. We use ACT DR6 and Planck data to calculate an upper limit on the reionization kSZ trispectrum from a measurement dominated by foregrounds. The upper limit is about 50 times the signal predicted from recent simulations.

cosmic background radiation↗

Using quantum noise correlation analysis to measure ion temperature

Quantum noise correlation analysis was tested at the proof-of-concept level as a technique to measure ion temperature in a plasma. If eventually successful, this technique could enable a compact, inexpensive, and robust ion temperature diagnostic suitable for a burning plasma environment. Ion temperature is a key parameter determining the fusion performance of a burning plasma, as the fusion cross-section has a strong dependence on ion temperature. This ion temperature diagnostic would require only a small optical view of the plasma through a port to passively record impurity line emission. The instrumentation would be remote from the reactor behind the neutron and bio-shielding. The technique relies solely on quantum correlations of the photons emitted by a plasma impurity to measure ion temperature; there is no grating dispersion of an emission line-width or pulse-height analysis of photon energy. This measurement innovation was tested with instrumentation consisting of two single-photon detectors with high timing resolution, a time-tagging unit, and simple light collection optics. This instrumentation measures the second-order correlation between the light intensity falling on the two detectors. The next steps beyond the proof-of-concept level will be development of diagnostic designs for application of this technique to high-temperature and burning plasmas. Arrays of single-photon avalanche detectors to multiplex measurements of photon correlation will be required to reduce signal integration time to an acceptable duration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Unsupervised anomaly clustering via offset alignment in multivariate grid sensing data

Modern industries increasingly rely on multi-sensor technologies to acquire complex, high-dimensional data streams, enabling advanced monitoring and control systems. One critical application is online anomaly detection in electrical smart grids, where multivariate and multimodal sensing technologies play a vital role. However, detecting anomalies in such time-series data is challenging due to their inherent temporal dependencies and stochastic behavior. Traditional approaches based on supervised and semi-supervised learning methods depend on labeled datasets, which are often unavailable in real-world scenarios. While unsupervised methods have emerged as promising alternatives, these methods are highly susceptible to noise and outliers commonly present in sensing applications. Furthermore, deep learning-based anomaly detection methods, despite their performance, are often criticized for their black-box nature, limiting their applicability in safety-critical and online environments where interpretability and explainability are paramount. In this work, we propose an unsupervised anomaly clustering method leveraging a cyclic alignment-based offset detection algorithm for multivariate time-series signals. The proposed method is applied to multivariate data collected from vibrational, voltage, and magnetic field sensors deployed in a local grid substation. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm in accurately clustering various anomalies/events across different sensing modalities. Additionally, we compare the effectiveness of the proposed approach against a simple pattern-based anomaly detection method, which performs well for univariate data but fails to generalize to multivariate and multimodal time-series data.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Platform for Automated Anomaly Detection in the Mercury Process System at the Target System in the Spallation Neutron Source

The Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory accelerates proton beams, which are directed toward a mercury target to generate the world’s most intense neutron beams via spallation. The target system consists of several interconnected subsystems and accounts for a major share of the facility’s overall downtime. Early detection of anomalies in the target system response can thus provide the possibility of taking corrective actions to reduce downtime. Accelerator facilities have largely focused on the beam side for data-driven fault prognostics. On the target side, SNS relies on operational shift technicians (OSTs), who respond to alarms and manually flag anomalies onto the System Tracking and Reliability (STAR) platform. This paper presents one of the first studies of using machine learning (ML) to automate anomaly detection in the target system. The study focused on the mercury process system as the first use case and employed reconstruction-based anomaly detection on minutely sampled time series signals. The pipeline was integrated into the STAR platform to autonomously rank and flag anomalies every week. The STAR platform provides a user interface for the OSTs to evaluate the flagged anomalies, thereby incorporating human feedback.

Anomaly detection↗

Illuminating all-hadronic final states with a photon: Exotic decays of the Higgs boson to four bottom quarks in vector boson fusion plus gamma at hadron colliders

We investigate the potential to detect Higgs boson decays to four bottom quarks through a pair of pseudoscalars, a final state that is predicted by many theories beyond the Standard Model. For the first time, the signal sensitivity is evaluated for the final state using the vector boson fusion (VBF) production with and without an associated photon, for the Higgs at m H = 125 GeV , at hadron colliders. The signal significance is 0.5 σ to 6 σ , depending on the pseudoscalar mass m a , when setting the Higgs decay branching ratio to unity, using an integrated luminosity of 150 fb − 1 at s = 13 TeV . This corresponds to an upper limit of 0.3, on the Higgs branching ratio to four bottom quarks, with a nonobservation of the decay. We also consider several variations of selection requirements—input variables for the VBF tagging and the kinematic variables for the photon—that could help guide the design of new triggers for the Run-3 period of the LHC and for the HL-LHC. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine

The Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) is software tool written in python, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) that provides an easily accessible application-programming-interface (API) to performing resource dispatch optimization analysis for integrated energy system (IES) configurations. DOVE is an integral part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) software suite and is leveraged by codes such as the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the Optimization of Real-Time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). The philosophy behind DOVE is to provide a modular software solution to IES planning and operation by utilizing state-of-the-art algorithms and machine learning. The goal is to accurately capture the dispatching behavior of a complex energy system given varying time-dependent signals for demand and commodity pricing.

McDowell, DylanJ. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

Towards AI Based Data Classification for Decision Making During Testing

During the development of high-consequence items, test systems should be capable of differentiating between test failures resulting from narrowly missing requirements versus those indicating potentially catastrophic faults. In many instances, classifying the data corresponds to simply identifying whether measured waveforms have approximately the anticipated shape. Cast in this light, the problem reduces to converting raw data into a form optimal for use with neural network classifiers. This manuscript investigates different means of representing raw data for image classification. Raw data plots and Short Time Fourier Transform (STFT) spectrograms are classified by both custom built, small-scale, Convolution Neural Networks (CNN) and open-source, multi-million parameter, pre-trained deep CNNs. In the case of time varying frequency content, the STFTs provide images with greater detail and can be accurately classified with simpler networks. This requires less memory and runs faster than classifying the raw data using the more sophisticated options—making STFTs optimal for applications with memory constraints. STFTs are not a panacea. In some cases the time-domain signal contains useful information that should not be discarded. Rather than using raw data or STFTs, the images can be constructed from both by using red and green channels of an RGB image to visualize the real and imaginary components of the transform, with the raw data occupying the blue channel.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Model Card for WaveDenoiser

This study used STEAD to train and evaluate this model because STEAD is among the best benchmark datasets available for local to regional data. STEAD is a global dataset with over 1 million 60 s long seismic waveforms that originated from approximately 450,000 earthquakes and background noise captured by more than 2,500 seismic stations. Each waveform in STEAD was attached with metadata such as earthquake locations, station locations, and signal arrival times when available

58 GEOSCIENCES↗