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DOE OSTI2023

Exploring sustainable electricity system development pathways in South America’s MERCOSUR sub-region

South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent’s economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this clean energy future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries – Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay – which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable energy cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a model framework based on a power system planning platform (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a relatively clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity. We also find that existing hydropower is critical for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards smarter green infrastructure: Fusing bark ecology and stemflow hydrodynamics on tree stems

A wide array of bark surfaces sheath wooded plants in rural and urban areas alike. Much work has examined the function and role of bark in different contexts and different environs, including urban areas, finding that it is rich in life and can play a role in the transfer of water and matter to the ground surface. Accordingly, this paper presents a first step to weld and fuse bark ecology and stemflow hydrodynamics. It is an effort to develop a physically-based understanding of the transport of water and matter (e.g., solutes, particulates, microorganisms) along tree stems using relevant equations to allow a more informed consideration of bark in green infrastructure initiatives. In particular, the hydrodynamical equations are based on the conservation of water mass, conservation of momentum, and conservation of scalar mass. These equations, coupled with contemplation of corticular life, underpin and substantiate bark’s unifying role as a modulator and cultivator. By elucidating the ‘black box’ of the tree stem and utilizing the formulations set forth in this paper, urban foresters and planners can develop green infrastructure to help advance ecosystem services and sustainability development goals (SDG), especially SDG 11 and SDG 15.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Latent demand for electricity in sub-Saharan Africa: A review

Universal access to electricity is an essential part of sub-Saharan Africa's path to development. With the United Nations setting Goal 7 of its sustainable development goals to be universal access to clean, reliable and affordable electricity, substantial research efforts have been made to optimize electricity supply based on projected demand in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. Our study reviews the literature on electricity demand, with a specific focus on latent demand (i.e., electricity demand that would exist if the necessary techno-economic conditions were met) in SSA. We found that out of 57 electricity demand papers reviewed, only 3 (5%) incorporated latent demand in their electricity demand projections. Furthermore, majority of the literature on electricity consumption and demand estimation in SSA use econometric models to identify determinants of electricity consumption and project future demand. We find that population density, urbanization, household income, electricity price, market value of crops and availability of natural resources to be significant determinants of electricity consumption in SSA. We conclude the review by proposing a methodology, and providing an initial proof of concept, for more accurately projecting latent demand in sub-Saharan Africa. Incorporating latent demand in electrification models would help inform energy sector stakeholders (e.g., investors and policymakers) about which sectors and geographic locations hold potential for wealth creation via electricity access.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

AI-powered municipal solid waste management: a comprehensive review from generation to utilization

The accumulation of municipal solid waste (MSW) continues to rise due to burgeoning population, rapid global urbanization and economic growth, intensifying ecological concerns associated with landfills and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Over the past 2 decades, global waste generation has surged by 50%, with one-third remaining uncollected and about 70% sent to landfills. This review examines the critical role of integrating emerging technologies, such as advanced sensors and artificial intelligence (AI), into end-to-end MSW management to alleviate landfill burdens. The suitability of various AI tools for different stages of MSW management is assessed, alongside the deployment of advanced sensors including hyperspectral cameras, computer vision systems, and internet of things (IoT) devices for material identification. Applications of genetic algorithms and reinforcement learning for optimizing collection routes, reducing costs, and lowering emissions are highlighted. Life cycle assessment (LCA) across all stages of MSW management is also reviewed, along with future trends in leveraging generative AI, natural language processing (NLP), and agent-based AI systems to analyze waste generation patterns and public sentiment. Efficient collection and handling can be enhanced through route optimization with geographic information systems and real-time bin-level monitoring. Furthermore, sensor-embedded, real-time object detection systems paired with robotics enable material characterization and automated sorting, thereby lowering costs and diverting waste from landfills into value-added products for diverse industrial sectors including packaging, chemicals, textiles, metals and glass, transportation, and electronics industries. Without intervention, global waste is projected to reach 4.54 billion tons by 2050, contributing direct economic costs of $\$$400 billion and roughly 2.38 billion tons of CO 2 -equivalent emissions annually. This review demonstrates how AI-driven, end-to-end solutions for MSW management can mitigate economic and environmental challenges, while directly supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development (UNDP) goals related to innovation and infrastructure (SDG 9), sustainable cities (SDG 11), responsible consumption and production (SDG 12), and climate action (SDG 13).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2024

As the largest source of clean, renewable power generation in the United States and one of the fastest growing sources of new electricity supply, wind energy will play a large role in the nation's energy future. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, scientists, engineers, analysts, and support professionals at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) worked to accelerate the pace of innovation in wind energy science and technology, advance grid systems integration, and develop sustainable solutions to deployment challenges. Much of NREL's research, development, and deployment work aligns with addressing the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy. Beginning in 2019, DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office partnered with the International Energy Agency to identify the barriers to greater wind energy deployment and related research gaps. The world's leading wind energy scientists and engineers identified five research areas as critical to advancing wind energy deployment: wind atmospheric science, wind turbine systems, wind plants and grid, environmental co-design, and social science. In FY 2024, NREL's accomplishments helped narrow the research gaps in these critical areas. This report provides details on those accomplishments.

accomplishments↗

DOE OSTI2022

Review of the U.S. Policies, Codes, and Standards of Zero-Carbon Buildings

The global issue of climate change has accelerated the international commitment to net-zero carbon emission development. Decarbonizing the building sector has been put on several governments’ sustainable development agendas. To provide a reference for decarbonizing the building sector, this paper summarizes the U.S. experience in zero-carbon buildings (ZCBs) from the aspects of policies, codes, and standards at the federal and local levels and those of professional societies. Based on the definition and boundaries of ZCBs, this paper introduces policies on building energy efficiency, electrification, on-site renewable energy deployment, and “buy clean”, illustrating highlights in building phases, energy systems, materials production, and fiscal incentives. The synergic efforts and coordination between federal and local levels and with professional societies are also introduced. Successful experiences in policy and standard implementation are summarized, including the systemic work of multilevel governance, clearly defined goals and stringent policies, constant upgrades of codes and standards, transparency in reporting and information sharing, and increased financial and investment opportunities. This paper provides concrete recommendations for developing zero-carbon building policies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement, reporting and Verification (MRV) of non-CO 2 greenhouse gases: International Best Practices and Suggestions for China

Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) is a systematic approach to tracking and documenting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and emission reductions. MRV can be used across all sectors and for all GHGs to track emissions patterns, evaluate programs, and promote transparency. As methane and other short-lived climate pollutants become critical to mitigating near-term climate change impacts, MRV systems become critical in improving emission inventories; facilitating the development of climate change policies and targets, and tracking and demonstrating progress towards sustainable development. This report focuses on current sectoral issues – including the emerging roles for satellites and remote sensing technologies - and international best practices in MRV policies and programs for non-carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) GHGs including methane, nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in specific sectors. Based on international best practices and a review of China’s current MRV system, we offer suggestions for a possible path forward for developing and implementing a stronger non-CO 2 MRV system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Sustainability Criteria for Hydrogen Deployments

This presentation is an update of progress to date on the work done on developing sustainability metrics for hydrogen projects. Here we outline the motivation and objective for the work as well as the process we use to derive a sustainability framework and metrics to be considered when evaluating the sustainability of a hydrogen infrastructure project.

DEIA↗

DOE OSTI2025

A survey on degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance in wind energy systems

Wind energy generation proliferated over the past decades, introducing unique challenges and opportunities for failure prediction, operation and maintenance. Decision-makers are continuously looking into new methods to infer failure mechanisms and behaviors of wind turbine components to detect and intervene in the failures before they happen. Evidently, degradation modeling and prognosis become engaging topics for researchers and practitioners to prevent catastrophic failures. Prognostics-driven approaches predict the time of failure for the components (e.g., predicting remaining useful life), which provides significant insights for scheduling of operations and maintenance activities. Integrating these prognostics-driven insights into wind farm operations and maintenance presents a substantial challenge, demanding careful consideration of numerous factors such as accessibility, crew routing, and spare part logistics. This study provides state-of-the-art review for degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance techniques for wind energy systems. The discussed techniques align with the United Nations' sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), by enhancing effectiveness and sustainability of wind energy operations. This work also showcases open research questions related to degradation modeling, prognosis, and prognostics-driven maintenance.

Altinpulluk, Nur Banu↗

DOE OSTI2022

Increasing Access to Grid-Tied Distributed Photovoltaics for Low-Income Populations: Considerations for Developing Countries

Governments around the world are under immense pressure to promote inclusive economic growth, reduce budget deficits, and promote sustainable development goals. Such goals may potentially be addressed through public policy approaches to encourage the use of distributed photovoltaic (DPV) systems in developing countries, particularly among low-income electricity customers. At the same time, low-income customers face numerous barriers to DPV deployment including a lack of access to capital and financing, a lack of awareness about the technology, lack of homeownership, and distorted price signals via lower retail tariffs. As a result of these factors, among others, they are often the least likely customers in developed and developing countries alike to deploy solar. However, under the right set of conditions, low-income grid tied DPV programs can offer beneficial outcomes for governments, customers, utilities, and the environment. This brief informs decision makers in developing countries as they explore ways to promote equitable access to solar energy in their communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Highly swellable hydrogels prepared from extensively oxidized lignin

Biopolymers such as lignin are gaining renewed appeal due to the need for sustainable materials. Herein, we used chelator-mediated Fenton (CMF) chemistry to oxidize Kraft lignin to develop sustainable super absorbent materials. The CMF chemistry adds oxygen, opens aromatic rings and increases COOH content, producing hydrophilic lignin without depolymerization. UV absorption, molecular weight, elemental analysis, and titration were used to study the chemical compositions of CMF-processed lignin. Then the chemically modified hydrophilic lignin was used to produce lignin-based hydrogels utilizing an aqueous polymerization and cross-linking reaction that enabled tunable properties. The resulting lignin hydrogels absorbed water up to 96% and swelled up to 2400%, as well as being re-swellable in water. These lignin-based hydrogels may be applicable in water-absorbing products in consumer goods and agriculture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Restoration Hydro: A Watershed Approach to Standard Modular New Hydropower

The objectives of FOA DE- FOA-0001836- “Standard Modular Hydropower” included designing a standardized, modular, and environmentally compatible hydropower schematic for implementation in greenfield sites that generate up to 10 MW of capacity. Utilizing funds competitively awarded under DOE’s Water Power Technologies Office, the Natel Energy team developed a concept for modular new stream reach (NSR) hydropower that incorporates multi species upstream and downstream fish passage, improved river channel connectivity, and recreational modules. The in-stream design of the collective modules minimized site specific design and maximized the opportunities for modularity. Financial data was also presented using actual costs from regional suppliers, with figures provided in 2022 dollars. While the project team did not address potential permitting process improvements, the site selection criteria did consider established barriers to hydropower development such as tribal and preserved lands, interconnection proximity, and endangered species to exclude or deprioritize. The project’s design schematic met the objectives of the FOA, and presented a unique solution that targets alluvial pockets as natural features for sustainable development. Natel’s concept also incorporated the company's fish-safe Restoration Hydro Turbine for safe downstream passage, while featuring a rock arch that integrates fish passage, water, recreation, and grade control modules (including sediment). Alignment with the Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) “Innovative Design Concepts for Standard Modular Hydropower and Pumped-Storage Hydropower” Program: According to the Hydropower Vision (DOE, 2016), approximately 16 GW of hydropower growth is possible with the development of technology solutions that balance efficiency, economics, and environmental sustainability. The desired outcome of the SMH program is transformational innovation specifically in the site identification, conceptual, and detailed design phases of technology development lifecycles (DOE, 2018). In developing the SMH design schematic, the team aimed to address the opportunities outlined in the Vision through an inverted design philosophy; rather than singularly prioritizing efficiency and power production, the team focused on integrating hydropower with restoration of degraded streams to optimal ecosystem function and provision of exceptional recreation value as design criteria. To achieve this, Restoration Hydro incorporates the principles of nature-based engineering (WWAP, 2018) and biomimicry (Biomimicry NL.) to strategically deploy complementary combinations of permanent, semi-permanent, and ephemeral low-head structures - such as natural and engineered log jams - that harness geomorphological and hydrological processes at the landscape-scale. Primary applications of Restoration Hydro include: 1) restoration of degraded watersheds’ natural ecological function and enhancement of hydrological connectivity; and 2) creation of associated co-benefits to hydro production, including increased groundwater recharge, improved sediment transport and management, improved water security and water quality. Restoration Hydro projects build upon proven watershed restoration engineering techniques by integrating hydropower turbines into low-head structures using innovative and evolving civil works concepts that facilitate fish and sediment passage, and in some cases create additional revenue-generating recreational opportunities. Powering low-head structures creates a directly monetizable layer of economic value in the form of flexible, reliable, renewable energy on top of the already high-value water, environmental and recreational benefits of watershed and river restoration. The approach aims to create a virtuous, self-reinforcing cycle whereby Restoration Hydro projects support the scaling of ecosystem restoration activities, creating a water-energy-carbon multiplier effect that, through the principles of adaptive change management: 1) improves the resilience of landscapes and downstream population centers for changing hydrological cycles; 2) creates a reliable energy resource that facilitates the integration of intermittent renewable power sources into grids; and 3) supports climate change mitigation through grid decarbonization and enhanced ecosystem carbon capture and retention.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

South Texas Industrial Assessment Center (Final Report)

The South Texas Industrial Assessment Center (ST-IAC) provides small to mid-size manufacturing companies and water treatment plants in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas, free energy assessments to help them reduce costs and stay competitive for sustainable development. The ST-IAC operates within the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley (UTRGV), and is the largest Hispanic-serving IAC in the U.S. Created in 2016, the ST-IAC, situated in the most economically disadvantaged region in the country, has been successful in training students and assessing local industries served by a predominantly Hispanic population. UTRGV, now the second largest Hispanic Serving Institution (HSI) of higher education in the U.S., has a student population of 32,000, of which 90% is Hispanic. While Covid-19 had a negative impact to our program during Budget Periods (BP) 4 and 5, the center still managed to provide opportunities for individuals, manufacturing and water industries in the local region. The program developed an energy engineering program in the region and further advanced national priorities. Those include resilience and sustainability of operations by implementing energy efficiency processes, renewable energy sources, decarbonization, battery storage, and cybersecurity in south Texas.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimally sited microgrids for energy resilience in Mount Desert Island, ME

Mount Desert Island (MDI) (≈110 sq mi; ≈10,000 year‑round residents) is located on the eastern coast of Maine. Acadia National Park is located on the island, protecting 47,000+ acres of land which draws millions of visitors annually. The island is divided into four towns (Tremont, Southwest Harbor, Mount Desert, Bar Harbor). The island’s distribution system is supplied by a single 35‑kV mainland feeder and a mix of aging distribution components; outage exposure is not uniform across the island. Residents fear that outage events are starting to exceed resilience expectations. MDI community leaders asked Sandia National Laboratories to characterize energy system vulnerability and to develop conceptual microgrid solutions that improve community resilience while also producing co‑benefits for reliability, access, and sustainable development.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Process systems engineering enables efficient and sustainable membrane-based critical material separations

This presentation summarizes work completed over the past year for PrOMMiS Task 2.1. The first half of the preseation motivates the need to develop sustainable critical mineral separation technology, and how PSE is particularly well-suited to tackle this problem. The second half of the presentation presents preliminary results for the custom cost model for diafiltration (2.1) using the superstructure flowsheet developed by Carnegie Mellon University. The presentation serves to emphasize the multi-disciplinary and collaborate nature of developing a circular economy of critical minerals and materials.

Dougher, Molly↗

DOE OSTI2022

Microwave assisted heating of plastic waste: Effect of plastic/susceptor (SiC) contacting patterns

We discuss plastic accumulation as a growing sustainability challenge. Most plastics are thermally inert at room temperature, requiring high temperatures for depolymerization. In the quest for developing sustainable plastic upcycling, we investigate silicon carbide (SiC) as microwave absorbing susceptors for reaching depolymerization temperatures. We utilize three SiC topologies – particles, hot-pressed plastic films containing SiC particles, and monoliths. SiC particles of >0.5 mm in diameter can provide heating rates approaching ~200 °C/min at modest powers. Still, physically mixed plastic-susceptor beds suffer from density differences, causing non-uniform contact during plastic softening and melting. Hot-pressed plastic films containing SiC particles allow uniform plastic-susceptor contact but suffer from slow heating as only a single layer of susceptors exists between polymer layers. SiC monoliths mitigate these challenges by preferentially dissipating the microwaves and rapidly heating the plastics independently of polymeric properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Experiments, Simulations, and Artificial Intelligence to Accelerate the Discovery of High-Performance Green Composites

The imperative for incorporating greener materials into the aerospace industry necessitates addressing significant challenges associated with the microstructural variability exhibited by recycled and sustainable feedstocks. In this study, we propose an integrated methodology that combines experimental investigations, finite element analysis, and artificial intelligence to develop sustainable composites with consistent properties. Our approach utilizes a pipeline comprising an automated mechanical tester, a finite element method simulator, and a convolutional neural network predictor to identify and optimize fabrication parameters for achieving desired mechanical characteristics in composites. By employing a nested-loop pipeline, our methodology improves sample efficiency, accuracy, and effectively bridges the gap between simulations and real-world performance. This unique methodology offers a promising avenue for facilitating the adoption of aerospace-appropriate green composites.

Athanasiou, Christos↗