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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate-driven design optimization with uncertainty constraints in Monte Carlo simulations

In multi-objective design tasks, the computational cost increases rapidly when high-fidelity simulations are used to evaluate objective functions. Surrogate models help mitigate this cost by approximating the simulation output, simplifying the design process. However, under high uncertainty, surrogate models trained on noisy data can produce inaccurate predictions, as their performance depends heavily on the quality of training data. This study investigates the impact of data uncertainty on two multi-objective design problems modelled using Monte Carlo transport simulations: a neutron moderator and an ion-to-neutron converter. For each, a grid search was performed using five different tally uncertainty levels to generate training data for neural network surrogate models. These models were then optimized using NSGA-III. The recovered Pareto-fronts were analyzed across uncertainty levels: in the moderator problem, normalized hypervolume dropped from 0.886 at 1.0% uncertainty to 0.748 at 10% uncertainty, while in the converter problem it remained near 0.50 for all cases. Average simulation times were also compared to evaluate the trade-off between accuracy and computational cost. Results show that the influence of simulation uncertainty is strongly problem-dependent. In the neutron moderator case, higher uncertainties led to exaggerated objective sensitivities and distorted Pareto-fronts, reducing normalized hypervolume. In contrast, the ion-to-neutron converter task was less affected—low-fidelity simulations produced results similar to those from high-fidelity data. These findings suggest that a fixed-fidelity approach is not optimal. Surrogate models can recover the Pareto-front under noisy conditions, and multi-fidelity studies help identify suitable uncertainty levels for each problem to balance efficiency and accuracy.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Heat release surrogates for NH 3 /H 2 /N 2 –air premixed flames

The present study investigates the performance of NH, NH 2 , O-atom, and H-atom as heat release rate (HRR) surrogates for NH 3 /H 2 /N 2 –air premixed flame through simulations. The simulations are conducted across different pressures, reactant inlet temperatures, fuel blend compositions, and equivalence ratios. Cantera is used to simulate one-dimensional (1D) freely propagating flames to investigate the spatial correlations of the species with the HRR. PeleLMeX, a low-Mach direct numerical simulation (DNS) code with Adaptive Mesh Refinement (AMR), is used to simulate two-dimensional (2D) flame-vortex interactions to investigate the temporal correlations including stretch effects. Three different mechanisms (Jiang et al. 2020; Glarborg et al. 2018; Okafor et al. 2018) were considered in the 1D flame simulations, whereas only the Jiang mechanism was considered in the flame-vortex simulations. The HRR surrogate performance for the 2D flames is evaluated at two different locations: (1) the centerline and (2) the flame cusp. The cusp is defined as the region in the flame front with the greatest curvature and the centerline encounters the highest tangential strain rate. The 1D flame results suggest that, although there is not uniformly good spatial correlation for HRR across all flame conditions, NH is the best overall as a HRR surrogate for laminar flames. The 2D flame results, however, suggest that O-atom and H-atom have satisfactory temporal correlations at different conditions—the former for rich flames, the latter for high-pressure flames. Furthermore, these simulations provide guidance to experimental measurements of surrogate HRR markers in unsteady multi-dimensional flames using laser diagnostics to detect species such as NH, O-atom, and H-atom.

Ammonia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor

Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.

MOOSE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate modelling for urban building energy simulation based on the bidirectional long short-term memory model

Here, the urban microclimate is essential for accurate simulation-based urban building energy modelling (UBEM). However, a high spatial-resolution microclimate can increase the computational resources demands of UBEM. Surrogate modelling is one of the promising approaches for fast UBEM. This study proposes a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based approach for simulation-based UBEM surrogate modelling. The estimations are aggregated into census tracts using total building floor area. A case study using UBEM to estimate annual hourly building energy use and anthropogenic heat from all existing buildings in Los Angeles County found that most of the surrogate models can complete the annual hourly simulation within 90 minutes with a normalized mean absolute error lower than 10%, and that the bidirectional LSTM outperforms the standard LSTM in accuracy. This study demonstrates the advantages of bidirectional RNN architecture in building energy surrogate modelling and is expected to promote long-term and high-resolution UBEM with detailed microclimates.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling in-time Prognostics with Surrogate Modeling through Physics-enhanced Dynamic Mode Decomposition Method

Computational models provide essential quantitative tools for assessing and predicting the health and performance of physical systems. However, high-fidelity models are rarely used in real-time operations or large optimization loops, due to their time-intensive nature. A common approach to improving computational efficiency of prognosis is to employ surrogate models. Such models can significantly decrease computation time for some accuracy loss. In this context, use of Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) is proposed to generate surrogate models for lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery discharge. DMD has been suggested and used successfully in the area of fluid dynamics for over a decade, but it has not been applied to the PHM domain, where far-ahead prediction of nonlinear behavior is crucial to propagate faults or predict Remaining Useful Life (RUL). For Li-ion battery health management, the standard application of DMD using only the observable quantities of interest was unable to capture the nonlinear discharge of batteries exhibited in lab testing. The Koopman theory, however, provides a mechanism to tradeoff low dimensional nonlinear models with high-dimensional linear ones in a DMD framework, by augmenting nonlinear state variables into the system representation. In this way, DMD allows for configurable simulation accuracy dependent on the dimensionality of the Koopman operator. For battery health management, we augmented the observable variables with the hidden states of a higher-fidelity physics model to build the DMD surrogate. In comparison to a high-fidelity model, the surrogate improved computational efficiency with only a minimal loss of accuracy, and enabled long-term prognostics horizons. A generalized method for this was implemented in the prog models python package.

prognostics and health management↗
DOE OSTI2024

Surrogate Model Guided Optimization of Expensive Black-Box Multi-Objective Problems: A Posteriori Methods

Many engineering applications require the simultaneous optimization of multiple conflicting objective functions. Often, these objective functions are evaluated using highly accurate computer simulations that are computationally too expensive to be evaluated hundreds or thousands of times during optimization. Thus, the goal is to find good approximations of the Pareto front using as few of these expensive simulations as possible. Here, we describe an optimization approach based on surrogate models and diverse sampling strategies to accelerate the search for the Pareto solutions. We use a separate surrogate model for approximating each objective function and then we use the surrogate models to inform where additional expensive simulations should be run. The surrogate models are updated in an active learning framework whenever new information from the expensive simulations becomes available. The sampling strategies aim at balancing local improvements of the approximate Pareto front and global exploration to identify the extrema and fill in large gaps of the approximate Pareto front. We demonstrate on a large set of benchmark problems the effectiveness of the method for finding good approximations of the Pareto front.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models: Preprint

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models for computationally expensive simulations, users can interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the integration of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble visualization↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic flux surrogate-based partitioned methods for interface problems

Loosely coupled partitioned methods for multiphysics problems treat each subproblem as a separate entity and advance them independently in time. In so doing these methods enable code reuse, increase concurrency and provide a convenient framework for plug-and-play multiphysics simulations. However, mathematically loosely coupled schemes are equivalent to a single step of an iterative solution method, which can compromise their accuracy and stability. We present a new data-driven partitioned method for coupled parametric PDEs that can improve upon the accuracy of traditional loosely coupled methods without incurring a performance penalty. To that end, we replace conventional field transfers across the interface by a surrogate for the dynamics of the interface flux exchanged between the subdomains. To develop this surrogate we apply dynamic mode decomposition to a non-standard staggered-in-time state, comprising the interface flux and small solution patches near the interface. The new approach shifts the main computational burden to an offline training phase, whereas application of the surrogate in the online phase amounts to a single matrix–vector multiplication. In conclusion, we provide stability analysis of the surrogate-based partitioned scheme and include numerical results that demonstrate its potential.

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Self-consistent equilibrium and transport simulations for NSTX-U plasmas enhanced via machine learning surrogate models

The Control-Oriented Transport SIMulator (COTSIM) is an advanced equilibrium and transport code designed for simulating tokamak discharges at computational speeds suitable for control applications. COTSIM’s modular framework enables users to select models that balance accuracy with speed according to specific needs, allowing the code to operate from fast to faster-than-real-time performance levels. This work presents recent enhancements to COTSIM’s predictive accuracy for NSTX-U scenarios, achieved by integrating neural-network-based surrogate models and self-consistent equilibrium calculations. To improve source deposition predictions, a surrogate model for NUBEAM has been incorporated. Additionally, a surrogate model for the Multi-Mode Module (MMM) now supports predictions of anomalous thermal, momentum, and particle diffusivities—key factors for modeling the evolution of temperature and rotation. Each surrogate model was specifically trained for the NSTX-U operational regime to enhance COTSIM’s accuracy while maintaining computational efficiency. Moreover, COTSIM now couples fixed-boundary equilibrium solvers with its transport solvers, enabling self-consistent predictions of plasma profiles and equilibrium evolution over the discharge. Simulation results demonstrate strong agreement between COTSIM and TRANSP predictions for NSTX-U discharges. These substantial advancements expand COTSIM’s utility in model-based control applications for NSTX-U. Potential applications include simultaneous optimization of equilibrium and transport scenarios, integration into digital twins, real-time profile estimation (e.g., temperature and rotation) from limited or noisy measurements, and advanced feedback-based scenario control.

Equilibrium and transport modeling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning surrogates for ion energy–angle distributions in thermal and RF plasma sheaths

Ion energy–angle distributions (IEADs) at material surfaces are a critical input for plasma–material interaction (PMI) studies in fusion devices, yet they are computationally expensive to obtain using particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. In this work, we develop a machine learning surrogate based on a deep deconvolutional neural network (DDeCNN) trained on large databases generated with the hPIC2 code. The surrogate is capable of reconstructing IEADs from sheath parameters for both thermal and radio-frequency (RF) plasmas, including cases with multiple ion species. Across thousands of test cases, the model achieves high accuracy, with over 97 % of predictions classified as good or average based on standard error metrics (MAE, MSE, L2). Even in the more challenging RF and multi-species regimes, the surrogate reliably captures the multi-peak structure of PIC results. Once trained, the surrogate produces IEADs in milliseconds on a common workstation, yielding speedups of six to seven orders of magnitude compared with running a full PIC simulation. This computational gain enables dense parameter scans and direct coupling of IEAD predictions with PMI and erosion models on whole-device scales in fusion-relevant conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient learning of accurate surrogates for simulations of complex systems

Machine learning methods are increasingly deployed to construct surrogate models for complex physical systems at a reduced computational cost. However, the predictive capability of these surrogates degrades in the presence of noisy, sparse or dynamic data. Here, we introduce an online learning method empowered by optimizer-driven sampling that has two advantages over current approaches: it ensures that all local extrema (including endpoints) of the model response surface are included in the training data, and it employs a continuous validation and update process in which surrogates undergo retraining when their performance falls below a validity threshold. We find, using benchmark functions, that optimizer-directed sampling generally outperforms traditional sampling methods in terms of accuracy around local extrema even when the scoring metric is biased towards assessing overall accuracy. Finally, the application to dense nuclear matter demonstrates that highly accurate surrogates for a nuclear equation-of-state model can be reliably autogenerated from expensive calculations using few model evaluations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraining hydrodynamic models of inertial confinement fusion implosions using capsule surrogate experiments

We conduct capsule surrogate experiments at the National Ignition Facility to calibrate radiation hydrodynamic simulations to infer hydrodynamic conditions that are not observable in indirect drive ignition implosions. We tune the simulations by applying laser power and cross beam energy transfer (CBET) saturation multipliers to match the observables from capsule surrogate experiments. Shock timing, velocity, and symmetry are measured in liquid D 2 filled Keyhole capsule surrogate experiments and implosion trajectory, stagnation time, and shape time history are measured in in-flight 2D backlit x-ray radiography experiments (“2DConA”) of D 2 gas filled capsule implosions. Calibrated simulations suggest that the N210808 ignition implosion (fusion target gain = 0.7) had a shell mass remaining at stagnation of less than the nominal %5 (3.8%) and resulted in less confinement. For N221204, the shell was made 5.75 μm thicker to trade implosion velocity for increased confinement and resulted in a target gain = 1.5 with a shell mass remaining of 5.7%. Furthermore, a single adjusted model can reproduce all shock timing data as changes are made to shell thickness (79–85 μm) and laser wavelength separation (1.8–4.0 Å). However, for the 2DConA implosions, a 5% variation in the peak power laser multipliers and a 30% variation in late-time CBET between experiments are needed to match the observed stagnation times, in-flight $P_2$ shape, and hot-spot $P_2$ shape. While progress is being made to improve the models in simulations using focused experiments, capsule surrogate experiments will continue to be needed to optimize future ignition designs.

Lasers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2025

wa-hls4ml and lui-gnn: A benchmark and GNN-based surrogate model for hls4ml resource and latency estimation

As machine learning (ML) increasingly serves as a tool for addressing real-time challenges in scientific applications, the development of advanced tooling has significantly reduced the time required to iterate on various designs. These advancements have solved major obstacles, but also exposed new challenges. For example, processes that were not previously considered bottlenecks, such as model synthesis, are now becoming limiting factors in the rapid iteration of designs. To reduce these emerging constraints, multiple efforts are being launched toward designing an ML-based surrogate model that estimates resource usage of synthesized accelerator architectures. This model would reduce the design iteration time, especially when designing within a set of given hardware constraints. This approach shows considerable potential, but as it stands, the effort is early and would benefit from coordination and standardization to assist future work as it emerges. We introduce wa-hls4ml, a benchmark for ML accelerator resource and latency estimation, and its corresponding initial dataset of more than 100,000 fully connected neural networks, all synthesized using hls4ml and targeting Xilinx FPGAs. In addition to the resource utilization and latency data provided, the dataset includes generated artifacts and log files for many of the synthesized neural networks, in order to support future research in ML-based code generation. The benchmark evaluates the performance of resource and latency predictors against several common ML model architectures, primarily originating from scientific domains, as exemplar models, as well as the average performance across a subset of the dataset. We measure the performance of a given predictor model through multiple metrics, including $R^2$ score and SMAPE on regression tasks, as well as inference time to further characterize the estimator under test. Additionally, we introduce the latency/utilization inference graph neural network (lui-gnn), a surrogate model that uses a graph neural network to represent input architectures in the form of a directed graph. This graph representation allows for a diverse set of model architectures to all be effectively handled by a surrogate model. We present the architecture and performance of the model, as evaluated by the new proposed benchmark, including SMAPE, $R^2$ score, and inference times, and find that lui-gnn generally predicts latency and utilization for the 75\% quantile within several percent of the synthesized resources on the synthetic test dataset, indicating that this approach of estimating resource and latency via a surrogate models has promise and warrants further research.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate Modelling of 3rd Integer Resonant Extraction at Fermilab Delivery Ring

We present an ongoing work in which a surrogate model is being developed to reproduce the response dynamics of the third-integer resonant extraction process in the Delivery Ring (DR) at Fermilab. This effort is in pursuit of smoothly extracting circulating beam to the Mu2e Experiment s production target, wherein the goal is to extract a uniform slice of the circulating $1e12$ protons in the DR over 25,000 turns (43~ms). The DR contains 3 harmonic sextupoles which excite a third-integer resonance as well as three fast, tune-ramping quadrupole magnets which drive the horizontal tune towards the $29/3$ resonance. In our initial work the surrogate model trains on a semi-analytical simulation provided in the same format as live data. Using Reinforcement Learning (and other potential ML methods), the trained surrogate acts as the environment in which a simple ML control agent could learn to dynamically adjust the quadrupole ramp at 430 break points within the 43 microsecond spill window. The control agent will be hosted on a dedicated Arria 10 FPGA, introducing its own requirements on control agent architecture. In this work we report the accuracy and fidelity of surrogate models in comparison to the response dynamics of the physics simulator.

Narayanan, Aakaash [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000157944↗