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Drought-enhanced rapid subsidence in the Central Valley and the impact to the California Aqueduct
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Subsidence Warming in the Tropical Cyclogenesis of Cindy (2017): CPEX Observations and Coupled Modeling
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Late Amazonian subsidence and magmatism of Olympus Mons, Mars
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Subtle Land Subsidence Elevates Future Storm Surge Risks Along the Gulf Coast of the United States
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Monitoring of subsidence with UAVSAR on Sherman Island in California's Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta
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Warm-Core Intensification Through Horizontal Eddy Heat Transports into the Eye
The mechanism for the formation and intensification of the hurricane warm core is not well understood. The generally accepted explanation is that the warm core forms as a result of gentle subsidence of air within the eye that warms as a result of adiabatic compression. Malkus suggested that this subsidence is part of a deep circulation in which air begins descent at high levels in the eye, acquires cyclonic angular momentum as it descends to lower levels, and then diverges at low levels, where it is entrained back into the eyewall. Inward mixing from the eyewall is hypothesized to force the subsidence and maintain the moisture and momentum budgets of the subsiding air. Willoughby suggested that air within the eye has remained so since it was first enclosed during the formation of the eyewall and that it subsides at most only a few kilometers rather than through the depth of the troposphere. He relates the subsidence to the low-level divergence and entrainment into the eyewall noted by Malkus, but suggests that shrinkage of the eye's volume is more than adequate to account for the air lost to the eyewall or converted to cloudy air by turbulent mixing across the eye boundary. Smith offered an alternative view of the subsidence forcing, suggesting that vertical motion in a mature hurricane eye is generated largely by imbalances between the downward vertical pressure gradient force and the upward buoyancy force. The vertical pressure gradient force is associated with the decay and/or radial spread of the tangential wind field with height at those levels were the winds are in approximate gradient wind balance. The rate of subsidence is just that required to warm the air sufficiently such that the buoyancy remains in close hydrostatic balance with an increasing vertical pressure gradient force. In this study, a very high-resolution simulation of Hurricane Bob using a cloud-resolving grid scale of 1.3 km is used to examine the heat budget within the storm with particular emphasis on the mechanisms for warming of the eye.
Postseismic deformation due to subcrustal viscoelastic relaxation following dip-slip earthquakes
The deformation of the Earth following a dip-slip earthquake is calculated using a three layer rheological model and finite element techniques. The three layers are an elastic upper lithosphere, a standard linear solid lower lithosphere, and a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere-a model previously analyzed in the strike-clip case (Cohen, 1981, 1982). Attention is focused on the magnitude of the postseismic subsidence and the width of the subsidence zone that can develop due to the viscoelastic response to coseismic reverse slip. Detailed analysis for a fault extending from the surface to 15 km with a 45 deg dip reveals that postseismic subsidence is sensitive to the depth to the asthenosphere but is only weakly dependent on lower lithosphere depth. The greatest subsidence occurs when the elastic lithosphere is about 30 km thick and the asthenosphere lies just below this layer (asthenosphere depth = 2 times the fault depth). The extremum in the subsidence pattern occurs at about 5 km from the surface trace of the fault and lies over the slip plane. In a typical case after a time t = 30 tau (tau = Maxwell time) following the earthquake the subsidence at this point is 60% of the coseismic uplift. Unlike the horizontal deformation following a strike slip earthquake, significant vertical deformation due to asthenosphere flow persists for many times tau and the magnitude of the vertical deformation is not necessarily enhanced by having a partially relaxing lower lithosphere.
Postseismic deformation due to subcrustal viscoelastic relaxation following dip-slip earthquakes
The deformation of the earth following a dip-slip earthquake is calculated using a three layer rheological model and finite element techniques. The three layers are an elastic upper lithosphere, a standard linear solid lower lithosphere, and a Maxwell viscoelastic asthenosphere - a model previously analyzed in the strike-clip case (Cohen, 1981, 1982). Attention is focused on the magnitude of the postseismic subsidence and the width of the subsidence zone that can develop due to the viscoelastic response to coseismic reverse slip. Detailed analysis for a fault extending from the surface to 15 km with a 45 deg dip reveals that postseismic subsidence is sensitive to the depth to the asthenosphere but is only weakly dependent on lower lithosphere depth. The greatest subsidence occurs when the elastic lithosphere is about 30 km thick and the asthenosphere lies just below this layer (asthenosphere depth = 2 times the fault depth). The extremum in the subsidence pattern occurs at about 5 km from the surface trace of the fault and lies over the slip plane. In a typical case after a time t = 30 tau (tau = Maxwell time) following the earthquake, the subsidence at this point is 60 percent of the coseismic uplift. Unlike the horizontal deformation following a strike slip earthquake, significant vertical deformation due to asthenosphere flow persists for many times tau and the magnitude of the vertical deformation is not necessarily enhanced by having a partially relaxing lower lithosphere. Previously announced in STAR as N83-13683
NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk
Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.
Model Spread in Tropical Low Cloud Feedback Tied to Overturning Circulation Response to Warming
Among models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), here we show that the magnitude of the tropical low cloud feedback, which contributes considerably to uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity, is intimately linked to tropical deep convection and its effects on the tropical atmospheric overturning circulation. First, a reduction in tropical ascent area and an increased frequency of heavy precipitation result in high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying, which increases longwave cooling and reduces subsidence weakening, favoring low cloud reduction (Radiation-Subsidence Pathway). Second, increased longwave cooling decreases tropospheric stability, which also reduces subsidence weakening and low cloudiness (Stability-Subsidence Pathway). In summary, greater high cloud reduction and upper-tropospheric drying (negative longwave feedback) lead to a more positive cloud feedback among CMIP6 models by contributing to a greater reduction in low cloudiness (positive shortwave feedback). Varying strengths of the two pathways contribute considerably to the intermodel spread in climate sensitivity.
Elevation changes near the San Gabriel Fault, Southern California
Analysis of repeated leveling observations in the vicinity of the San Gabriel Fault in Southern California indicate subsidence immediately south of the Fault relative to points to the north, south and east. These observations were previously interpreted as reflecting tectonic motions associated with either the 'Palmdale Bulge' or with preseismic effects of the San Fernando earthquake. Relative subsidence between 1953 and 1964 reaches approximately 9 cm and extends over a distance of more than 20 km. Subsidence occurs directly above the Saugus aquifer and shows a temporal correlation with the history of water level decline within the aquifer. The degree of subsidence of individual benchmarks is roughly proportional to the product of aquifer thickness and water level decline at the location of the benchmarks. Thses observations strongly suggest that movements of the surface near the San Gabriel Fault, previously inferred to be of tectonic origin, actually result from near surface sediment compaction within the Saugus basin.
Shallow and Deep Latent Heating Modes Over Tropical Oceans Observed with TRMM PR Spectral Latent Heating Data
The global hydrological cycle is central to the Earth's climate system, with rainfall and the physics of its formation acting as the key links in the cycle. Two-thirds of global rainfall occurs in the Tropics. Associated with this rainfall is a vast amount of heat, which is known as latent heat. It arises mainly due to the phase change of water vapor condensing into liquid droplets; three-fourths of the total heat energy available to the Earth's atmosphere comes from tropical rainfall. In addition, fresh water provided by tropical rainfall and its variability exerts a large impact upon the structure and motions of the upper ocean layer. Three-dimensional distributions of latent heating estimated from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar (TRMM PR)utilizing the Spectral Latent Heating (SLH) algorithm are analyzed. Mass-weighted and vertically integrated latent heating averaged over the tropical oceans is estimated as approx.72.6 J/s (approx.2.51 mm/day), and that over tropical land is approx.73.7 J/s (approx.2.55 mm/day), for 30degN-30degS. It is shown that non-drizzle precipitation over tropical and subtropical oceans consists of two dominant modes of rainfall systems, deep systems and congestus. A rough estimate of shallow mode contribution against the total heating is about 46.7 % for the average tropical oceans, which is substantially larger than 23.7 % over tropical land. While cumulus congestus heating linearly correlates with the SST, deep mode is dynamically bounded by large-scale subsidence. It is notable that substantial amount of rain, as large as 2.38 mm day-1 in average, is brought from congestus clouds under the large-scale subsiding circulation. It is also notable that even in the region with SST warmer than 28 oC, large-scale subsidence effectively suppresses the deep convection, remaining the heating by congestus clouds. Our results support that the entrainment of mid-to-lower-tropospheric dry air, which accompanies the large-scale subsidence is the major factor suppressing the deep convection. Therefore, representation of the realistic entrainment is very important for proper reproduction of precipitation distribution and resultant large-scale circulation.
Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management
California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2012-2019 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA),requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs) at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR), this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and Geographic Positioning Systems (GPS) data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE FollowOn (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2)Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found that GRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data
Central Valley Water Resources: Improving California Groundwater Assessments using GRACE and InSAR Datasets for Water Resource Management
California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural areas in the world, producing approximately $20 billion in crops annually. The recent California droughts of 2007-2010 and 2011-2017 resulted in increased groundwater pumping in the Central Valley to adequately irrigate farmland. Overdrafting of the Central Valley aquifer results in groundwater depletion, land subsidence, and permanent loss of groundwater storage. In 2014, depletion of groundwater led the state of California to enact the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), requiring critically overdrafted, high, and medium priority sub-basins to reach sustainable levels of groundwater pumping and recharge by 2042. SGMA allows local Groundwater Sustainability Agencies the authority to create Groundwater Sustainability Plans at the sub-basin level. To assist California’s Department of Water Resources, this project quantified groundwater change and land subsidence in Central Valley sub-basins with sparse or unreliable well and GPS data. This was done using NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), and interferograms derived from Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2). Time series of the GRACE and InSAR data were compared with well and GPS data in data-dense sub-basins to determine the feasibility of these datasets for groundwater storage and subsidence monitoring. We found thatGRACE and InSAR data are effective tools for determining groundwater change and land subsidence and can be used on their own to monitor sub-basins in the absence of well and GPS data.
Coastal Land Change Due to Tectonic Processes and Implications for Relative Sea-Level Rise in the Samoan Islands
Of the major coastal land change mechanisms responsible for relative sea-level change, tectonic subsidence is generally quoted as ranging from < mm/yr to 1 cm/yr. However, we documented coseismic and ongoing post-earthquake surface displacements from continuous GPS and tide gauge/altimetry data that indicated rapid subsidence on two of the major Samoan Islands of 12 - 20 cm during and following the 8.1 2009 Tonga-Samoa earthquake. Earlier results and our modeling of GRACE-derived gravimetric data provided a preliminary forecast of future relative sea-level rise through rapid land subsidence [Han et al., 2019]. Of course these numerical forecasts of time-dependent deformation are only as good as our input observations and our assumed rheological models. As part of our current NASA Earth Surface and Interior study, we are obtaining a wider range of data to constrain and test alternate models of ongoing postseismic deformation across American Samoa and Upolu, Samoa: (1) times series of altimetry plus tide gauge data processed to complement the cGPS data available to provide high-temporal resolution, point measurements of uplift/subsidence, (2) InSAR derived observations of surface deformation across the highly vegetated Samoan Islands, (3) evaluating and using NASA satellite lidar data (ICESat-I & ICESat-II, GEDI) for fusion with multi-source topographic data sets and for estimating topographic change on the decadal time scale. We are evaluating and using these new observations to better understand and separate out local, island-wide, and multi-island subsidence patterns and to evaluate the high impact of rising sea-level in a tectonically active region.
The relative age of the transition zone between Hellas and the Martian cratered terrain.
Consideration of the relationships of craters to scarps and ridges and of the antiquity of Hellas relative to the cratered terrain. Scarps and ridges in the transition zone between Hellas and the cratered terrain both postdate and predate large craters. It appears that there are a number of craters which are older than the transition zone structures, which in turn are presumably related in some way to the formation of Hellas. Sharp et al. (1971) have suggested impact, large-scale volcanic explosion, or subsidence for the origin of Hellas. Volcanic explosion seems the least likely explanation, for the resulting deficiency of mass beneath Hellas should induce later isostatic rebound, contrary to observations of the transition zone which imply subsidence relatively late in the history of the Martian surface. An origin of Hellas by impact with later isostatic subsidence (because of a dense mass under its floor, as suggested by Sharp et al.) to account for the characteristics of the transition zone seems to be the best model, and may also account for the featureless floor of the basin.
When does small-scale convection begin beneath oceanic lithosphere?
A numerical model of small-scale convection in a fluid of variable viscosity is described. The results indicate that recently observed gravity anomalies showing a pattern of highs and lows aligned in the direction of oceanic plate motion may be the result of small-scale mantle flow. The convective flow must begin in the first six Myr of lithospheric cooling to produce the observed signals, which is not inconsistent with constraints on the viscosity of the mantle. The calculated trend for the subsidence of the ocean floor is found to be almost linear with the square root of time even when small-scale convection has significantly changed the rate of subsidence. For average shallow asthenospheric viscosities of about 10 to the 18th Pa/s, the model subsidence can match data for the oceans and reproduce the magnitude and wavelength of the observed gravity anomalies.