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53 records · Page 3

Physics-Based Methods of Failure Analysis and Diagnostics in Human Space Flight

The Integrated Health Management (IHM) for the future aerospace systems requires to interface models of multiple subsystems in an efficient and accurate information environment at the earlier stages of system design. The complexity of modern aeronautic and aircraft systems (including e.g. the power distribution, flight control, solid and liquid motors) dictates employment of hybrid models and high-level reasoners for analysing mixed continuous and discrete information flow involving multiple modes of operation in uncertain environments, unknown state variables, heterogeneous software and hardware components. To provide the information link between key design/performance parameters and high-level reasoners we rely on development of multi-physics performance models, distributed sensors networks, and fault diagnostic and prognostic (FD&P) technologies in close collaboration with system designers. The main challenges of our research are related to the in-flight assessment of the structural stability, engine performance, and trajectory control. The main goal is to develop an intelligent IHM that not only enhances components and system reliability, but also provides a post-flight feedback helping to optimize design of the next generation of aerospace systems. Our efforts are concentrated on several directions of the research. One of the key components of our strategy is an innovative approach to the diagnostics/prognostics based on the real time dynamical inference (DI) technologies extended to encompass hybrid systems with hidden state trajectories. The major investments are into the multiphysics performance modelling that provides an access of the FD&P technologies to the main performance parameters of e.g. solid and liquid rocket motors and composite materials of the nozzle and case. Some of the recent results of our research are discussed in this chapter. We begin by introducing the problem of dynamical inference of stochastic nonlinear models and reviewing earlier results. Next, we present our analytical approach to the solution of this problem based on the path integral formulation. The resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model parameters, provides optimal compensation for the effects of dynamical noise, and is robust for a broad range of dynamical models. In the following Section the strengths of the algorithm are illustrated illustrated by inferring the parameters of the stochastic Lorenz system and comparing the results with those of earlier research. Next, we discuss a number of recent results in application to the development of the IHM for aerospace system. Firstly, we apply dynamical inference approach to a solution of classical three tank problems with mixed unknown continuous and binary parameters. The problem is considered in the context of ground support system for filling fuel tanks of liquid rocket motors. It is shown that the DI algorithm is well suited for successful solution of a hybrid version of this benchmark problem even in the presence of additional periodic and stochastic perturbation of unknown strength. Secondly, we illustrate our approach by its application to an analysis of the nozzle fault in a solid rocket motor (SRM). The internal ballistics of the SRM is modelled as a set of one-dimensional partial differential equations coupled to the dynamics of the propellant regression. In this example we are specifically focussed on the inference of discrete and continuous parameters of the nozzle blocking fault and on the possibility of an application of the DI algorithm to reducing the probability of "misses" of an on-board FD&P for SRM. In the next section re-contact problem caused by first stage/upper stage separation failure is discussed. The reaction forces imposed on the nozzle of the upper stage during the re-contact and their connection to the nozzle damage and to the thrust vector control (TVC) signal are obtained. It is shown that transient impact induced torquean be modelled as a response of an effective damped oscillator. A possible application of the DI algorithm to the inference of damage parameters and predicting fault dynamics ahead of time using the actuator signal is discussed. Finally, we formulate Bayesian inferential framework for development of the IHM system for in-flight structural health monitoring (SHM) of composite materials. We consider the signal generated by piezoelectric actuator mounted on composite structure generating elastic waves in it. The signal received by the sensor is than compared with the baseline signal. The possibility of damage inference is discussed in the context of development of the SHM.

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.

Stochastic self-propagating star formation in the Large Magellanic Cloud

The considered investigation provides a unifying theoretical basis for an understanding of a variety of observations on the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). It is demonstrated that an intrinsically statistical theory can supply a model for individual objects. With the aid of the model of stochastic self-propagating star formation described by Gerola and Seiden (1978), many structural features, both in the stars and in the gas are related to the process of star formation and the evolution of the LMC. It is found that the pattern of massive star formation in the LMC is partially ordered. The stars occur in large clumps and their global pattern is basically irregular and asymmetric with respect to the rotation center. The mean rate of chemical evolution of the LMC is smaller than that of the Milky Way. This fact is largely explained by the model in terms of the difference in shear for these galaxies. The formation of large, dense regions of massive stars has a great effect on the gas.

Feitzinger, V.

WHAMII - An enumeration and insertion procedure with binomial bounds for the stochastic time-constrained traveling salesman problem

This paper presents an algorithm (WHAMII) designed to solve the Artificial Intelligence Design Challenge at the 1987 AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference. The problem under consideration is a stochastic generalization of the traveling salesman problem in which travel costs can incur a penalty with a given probability. The variability in travel costs leads to a probability constraint with respect to violating the budget allocation. Given the small size of the problem (eleven cities), an approach is considered that combines partial tour enumeration with a heuristic city insertion procedure. For computational efficiency during both the enumeration and insertion procedures, precalculated binomial probabilities are used to determine an upper bound on the actual probability of violating the budget constraint for each tour. The actual probability is calculated for the final best tour, and additional insertions are attempted until the actual probability exceeds the bound.

Dahl, Roy W.

Results from Two Full-Scale Hawker 4000 Fuselage Drop Tests

In the spring of 2022, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) conducted two full-scale drop tests on a Hawker 4000 partial fuselage structure for the evaluation of composite material response under dynamic impact loading conditions. The specific objectives of the tests were to induce dynamic composite damage initiation and progression and in primary structure and to understand the nature of the failure modes. The tests were conducted via dividing the fuselage hardware into three smaller sections. Dynamic drop tests were conducted on the forward and aft portions of the fuselage under different dynamic loading conditions, while the middle section was reserved for materials testing. Both tests were conducted by dropping the test articles from a height of 14 feet with significant amounts of pitch, which was added to initiate damage in specific regions of the structure. The test articles were ballasted then instrumented with accelerometers at various locations and speckle-coated on both exterior sides with a black and white stochastic pattern for use with three-dimensional digital image correlation (3D-DIC). In addition, the interior belly portion of the forward section test article was also speckle-coated, which was intended to capture deformations on the belly of the test article from the interior at impact. The interior of the aft section test article was not speckle-coated. Prior to testing, bow-tie markers were applied at various locations for use in marker tracking, to measure impact conditions such as vertical impact velocity and pitch. In this report, a partial summary of the data collected from the tests is presented. The data was primarily in the form of accelerometers to measure impact acceleration and 3D-DIC to measure deformation and failure onset and propagation. Post-test inspections revealed the primary damage mechanism was fiber cracking and delamination primarily in and around the area that contacted the impact surface. Acceleration pulse shapesin the ballast locations were trapezoidal in nature and ranged between 10 g and 40 g, depending on the location and test.

full scale testing

Results from Two Full-Scale Hawker 4000 Fuselage Drop Tests

In the spring of 2022, NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) conducted two full-scale drop tests on a Hawker 4000 partial fuselage structure for the evaluation of composite material response under dynamic impact loading conditions. The specific objectives of the tests were to induce dynamic composite damage initiation and progression and in primary structure and to understand the nature of the failure modes. The tests were conducted via dividing the fuselage hardware into three smaller sections. Dynamic drop tests were conducted on the forward and aft portions of the fuselage under different dynamic loading conditions, while the middle section was reserved for materials testing. Both tests were conducted by dropping the test articles from a height of 14 feet with significant amounts of pitch, which was added to initiate damage in specific regions of the structure. The test articles were ballasted then instrumented with accelerometers at various locations and speckle-coated on both exterior sides with a black and white stochastic pattern for use with three-dimensional digital image correlation (3D-DIC). In addition, the interior belly portion of the forward section test article was also speckle-coated, which was intended to capture deformations on the belly of the test article from the interior at impact. The interior of the aft section test article was not speckle-coated. Prior to testing, bow-tie markers were applied at various locations for use in marker tracking, to measure impact conditions such as vertical impact velocity and pitch. In this report, a partial summary of the data collected from the tests is presented. The data was primarily in the form of accelerometers to measure impact acceleration and 3D-DIC to measure deformation and failure onset and propagation. Post-test inspections revealed the primary damage mechanism was fiber cracking and delamination primarily in and around the area that contacted the impact surface. Acceleration pulse shapesin the ballast locations were trapezoidal in nature and ranged between 10 g and 40 g, depending on the location and test.

full scale testing

A Mathematical Formulation of the SCOLE Control Problem. Part 2: Optimal Compensator Design

The study initiated in Part 1 of this report is concluded and optimal feedback control (compensator) design for stability augmentation is considered, following the mathematical formulation developed in Part 1. Co-located (rate) sensors and (force and moment) actuators are assumed, and allowing for both sensor and actuator noise, stabilization is formulated as a stochastic regulator problem. Specializing the general theory developed by the author, a complete, closed form solution (believed to be new with this report) is obtained, taking advantage of the fact that the inherent structural damping is light. In particular, it is possible to solve in closed form the associated infinite-dimensional steady-state Riccati equations. The SCOLE model involves associated partial differential equations in a single space variable, but the compensator design theory developed is far more general since it is given in the abstract wave equation formulation. The results thus hold for any multibody system so long as the basic model is linear.

Balakrishnan, A. V.

Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

Backus, George E.

Fluctuation and rotation in diffusion-influenced monomolecular reactions

Models of partially absorbing boundaries for calculating diffusion-influenced chemical reactions are examined analytically. The limitations of diffusion-equation and random-walk models are indicated; the presence of an ambiguous length parameter in a standard radiation-boundary-condition (RBC) model is demonstrated; the RBC model for a boundary with oscillation (at a rate much faster than the rate of thermal collisions) between absorbing and nonabsorbing states is considered; an alternative stochastically switching absorber (SSA) model is introduced and shown to be physically consistent; the equivalence of one-dimensional RBC and SSA models under some conditions is shown; one time passage is calculated for an axially symmetric three-dimensional SSA model with anisotropic absorption; and the analogy between rotation and stochastic switching is explored.

Bashford, Donald

Probing Sensitivity of Discharge Characteristics to Model Selection using Uncertainty Quantification in an aprotic Li-Oxygen Battery

Currently, there are several models in the literature, such as kinetic models, microstructural models, and mass transport models that describe a Li-air battery's discharge behavior. Many of these models are calibrated and tested at low current densities and cannot be easily transferred to high current densities. Even at low current densities, there is no quantitative method for a researcher to choose a reaction kinetic model such as classical Butler-Volmer and its derivatives, and modified Marcus-Hush-Chidsey, a resistance model for lithium peroxide such as electron transport via tunneling or linear resistivity, a surface coverage model (lithium peroxide growth) such as partial coverage or full coverage, and mass transport model (discussed in Ref. [1]). Also, it is time-consuming to test different models at high current density (1C) due to a lack of well-tested models and well-calibrated model parameters. For this presentation, we will develop an analytical model, which acts as a surrogate model for a sophisticated finite element model to predict discharge time and discharge voltage. Next, we use an uncertainty quantifying technique called reduced-order stochastic optimization [2, 3] to determine the uncertainty in model parameters for rate kinetics, lithium peroxide resistivity, and parasitic resistance. Finally, a finite element simulation is performed to determine the error introduced by the surrogate model and its influence on the uncertainty in the model parameters.

M Mehta

Structural Aspects of System Identification

The problem of identifying linear dynamical systems is studied by considering structural and deterministic properties of linear systems that have an impact on stochastic identification algorithms. In particular considered is parametrization of linear systems so that there is a unique solution and all systems in appropriate class can be represented. It is assumed that a parametrization of system matrices has been established from a priori knowledge of the system, and the question is considered of when the unknown parameters of this system can be identified from input/output observations. It is assumed that the transfer function can be asymptotically identified, and the conditions are derived for the local, global and partial identifiability of the parametrization. Then it is shown that, with the right formulation, identifiability in the presence of feedback can be treated in the same way. Similarly the identifiability of parametrizations of systems driven by unobserved white noise is considered using the results from the theory of spectral factorization.

Glover, Keith

The random component of planetary rotation

In the present computation of the rms rotational angular momentum accumulated by a planet as a result of the stochastic off-center impacts of large planetesimals over the course of the accretionary epoch, planets' observed spin periods and obliquities were used to estimate the masses of the largest bodies which impacted each planet during its history. Several planets have likely undergone at least one collisional event with a body having over 5 percent of the planet's ultimate mass, thereby supporting giant-impact theories of the origins of the moon and Charon as well as the explanation of Mercury's excess Fe in terms of the partial collisional stripping of its mantle.

Lissauer, Jack J.

A Probabilistic Framework for the Validation and Certification of Computer Simulations

The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.

Ghanem, Roger

Probabilistic design analysis using Composite Loads Spectra (CLS) coupled with Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methodologies (PSAM)

Composite loads spectra (CLS) were applied to generate probabilistic loads for use in the PSAM nonlinear evaluation of stochastic structures under stress (NESSUS) finite element code. The CLS approach allows for quantifying loads as mean values and distributions around a central value rather than maximum or enveloped values typically used in deterministic analysis. NESSUS uses these loads to determine mean and perturbation responses. These results are probabilistically evaluated with the distributional information from CLS using a fast probabilistic integration (FPI) technique to define response distributions. The main example discussed describes a method of obtaining load descriptions and stress response of the second-stage turbine blade of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high-pressure fuel turbopump (HPFTP). Additional information is presented on the on-going analysis of the high pressure oxidizer turbopump discharge duct (HPOTP) where probabilistic dynamic loads have been generated and are in the process of being used for dynamic analysis. Example comparisons of load analysis and engine data are furnished for partial verification and/or justification for the methodology.

Newell, J. F.

Full-Scale Drop Test of a Fokker F28 Wingbox Fuselage Section

During the summer of 2017, a vertical drop test was conducted on a partial section of a Fokker F28 MK4000 aircraft as a part of a joint NASA/FAA effort to investigate the performance of transport category aircraft under realistic crash conditions. Ten Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs, a.k.a. crash test dummies) ranging from 5th to 95th percentile sizes were used for the collection and comparison of occupant loads. Additionally, overhead bin mass simulators were added to achieve a realistic fuselage configuration. The section was dropped with a downward facing pitch angle onto a sloping soil surface in order to simulate a local horizontal velocity in the airframe. Instrumentation consisting of accelerometers was installed to measure floor, seat track, ATD, and overhead bin acceleration responses. Self-contained data recorders logging accelerations and rotational rates were also used on the seat tracks and lower structure as evaluations for crash recording devices in potential future use cases. The right side of the section was painted with a stochastic black and white speckle pattern for use in full field photogrammetric imaging techniques. Results collected from the airframe accelerometers will be presented, and deformation and failures of the test article structure will be discussed. Finally, an examination of the test article motion will be presented using derived components of local velocities with their effect on the impact acceleration and airframe response.

Littell, J. D.

A Summary of Results from Two Full-Scale Fokker F28 Fuselage Section Drop Tests

During 2017, two vertical drop tests were conducted on two partial sections removed from a Fokker F28 MK4000 aircraft as a part of a joint NASA / Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) effort to investigate the crashworthiness characteristics of Transport Category Aircraft, as defined by 14 Code of Federal Regulations, Part 25. The first test was a pure vertical drop test of a relatively uniform forward section, which included an underfloor area for luggage. The second test was a canted drop test onto a sloped surface of a portion of the fuselage representing the wingbox stiffened structure. In both tests, accelerometers were installed on the floor, seat track, luggage, and overhead bin to measure responses in the two airframe sections. In addition, ten Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs, a.k.a. crash test dummies) were included in each test to measure the potential of onboard occupant injury. Self-contained data recorders, logging accelerations and rotational rates, were also used on the seat tracks and lower structure for evaluation as potential crash recording devices in future tests. Finally, the starboard side of each section was painted with a stochastic black and white speckle pattern for use in full field photogrammetric imaging techniques. The results collected show notable differences in the Forward and Wingbox Section responses. The Forward Section floor accelerations showed a relatively uniform response of approximately 7 g throughout the impact event. This section exhibited large amounts of subfloor crushing, floor stiffener failures and seat deformation upon impact. These results are contrasted by the Wingbox Section accelerations, which showed large differences when comparing accelerations recorded from either the rear or the front portion of the section reaching peaks of 39 g in some locations. Additionally, the Wingbox Section test induced a forward motion caused from the rotation at impact. With the exception of the lower cavity, there was minimal deformation in the Wingbox Section, and ATD responses were consistently higher than those for the Forward Section. A complete set of results are presented for the airframe, seat, ATD, overhead bin, and subfloor regions for each section. The ATD results are compared to current injury criteria, and determinations will be made on the likelihood of injury. Additional results for cargo-hold stored luggage are presented in an attempt to provide a component-level characterization for better understanding of under-floor loading. Finally, a discussion of the relevance of the results for a proposed airframe level crashworthiness guideline are presented.

Littell, Justin D.

A stochastic-dynamical approach to the study of the natural variability of the climate

A method, suggested by Leith (1975), which employed stochastic-dynamic forecasts obtained from a general circulation model in such a way as to satisfy the definition of climatic noise, was used to validate assumptions accounting for the effects of external influences in estimating the climatic noise. Two assumptions were investigated: (1) that the weather fluctuations can be represented as a Markov process, and (2) that changing external conditions do not influence the atmosphere's statistical properties on short time scales. The general circulation model's simulation of the daily weather fluctuations was generated by performing integrations with prescribed climatological boundary conditions for random initial atmospheric states, with resulting dynamical forecasts providing an ensemble of simulated data for the autoregressive modeling of weather fluctuations. To estimate the climatic noise from the observational data (consisting of hourly values of sea level pressure and surface temperature at 54 U.S. stations for the month of January for the years 1949-1975) use of the short time-scale assumption is made. The simulated and observed data were found not to be consistent with either white noise or a Markov process of weather fluctuations. Good agreement was found between the results of the hypothetical testing of the simulated and the observed surface temperatures; and only partial support was found for the short time-scale assumption, i.e., for sea level pressure.

Straus, D. M.

Real Surface Effects in Elastohydrodynamic Lubrication

Following a general discussion of real effects in EHL, consideration is given in detail to the role played by stochastic roughness superimposed on the nominal solid boundaries. Particular attention is given to the full-film EHL regime where incipient asperity contact bears a negligible fraction of the load. Flow, from which an averaged Reynolds equation can be formed, is nonetheless modified by the amplitude and texture of the roughness patterns. In describing these effects by means of certain well-defined flow factors, it is found that only two extra parameters are needed - the rms surface height and the ratio of the correlation lengths in the two principal roughness directions. In a lowest order perturbation expansion of these flow factors in powers of the ratio of rms roughness to nominal film thickness, no other properties of the roughness appear. In most cases of practical interest, the factors describing Poiseuille flow are separable into the sum of two single-surface flow factors which means that a combination of a single equivalent rough surface versus an ideal smooth surface can always be found. For flow entrained by slip velocity the factors separate instead into a difference of single-surface factors and it becomes significant which of the two surfaces carries the equivalent roughness. Results are discussed of some applications of the averaged Reynolds equation based on the flow factor method to the EHL line contact problem. Finally, the partial EHL regime is considered where comparable load fractions are carried by the hydrodynamic film and by incipient mechanical contact. An extension of the method into this regime by combining it with asperity contact models appears most encouraging.

John H Tripp