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DOE OSTI2024

New Muon Campus Simulations for the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment (E989) at Fermilab conducted high-precision measurements of the muon anomalous magnetic moment $a_{\mu}$ using a storage ring from 2018 to 2023, achieving a remarkable precision of $200\:\mathrm{ppb}$ over Runs 1-3, with analyses for Runs 4-6 ongoing. A comprehensive understanding of the storage ring's beam dynamics and its accurate simulations are crucial for achieving the experiment's ambitious goals. One of the requirements for this effort is a very detailed knowledge of the phase space distribution of the beam. To address this requirement, we performed high-statistics simulations of the Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Target Station (AP0) and the Muon Campus beamlines: M2 and M3, followed by the Delivery Ring, and then M4 and M5. The resulting muon distribution at the end of the M5 beamline from our previous $3\times10^{12}$ protons-on-target (PoT) simulation serves as an essential input for the storage ring simulations. In 2024, to facilitate the analyses of Runs 4-6, we have updated our Muon Campus models and re-optimised certain parameters to reflect the operational currents and wire chamber measurements of the beam. For these optimisations, we employed the heterogeneous island method, implemented in our evolutionary optimisation tool, glyfada. This key update addresses the need to use the best possible beam for the storage ring simulations and thus supports the experiment's overall precision. The Muon $g\textrm{-}2$ Experiment at Fermilab has successfully achieved its $70\:\mathrm{ppb}$ systematic uncertainty goal and collected 21 times more data than its predecessor at BNL. The updated and improved Muon Campus models and simulations not only facilitate the experiment's efforts to potentially resolve the current tension between experimental measurements and theoretical predictions of $a_{\mu}$, but also provide a basis for future simulations for the Mu2e Experiment (E-973), which utilises shared Muon Campus beamlines.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

NASA NTRS2018

New Neural Network Cloud Mask Algorithm Based on Radiative Transfer Simulations

Cloud detection and screening constitute critically important first steps required to derive many satellite data products. Traditional threshold-based cloud mask algorithms require a complicated design process and fine tuning for each sensor, and they have difficulties over areas partially covered with snow/ice. Exploiting advances in machine learning techniques and radiative transfer modeling of coupled environmental systems, we have developed a new, threshold-free cloud mask algorithm based on a neural network classifier driven by extensive radiative transfer simulations. Statistical validation results obtained by using collocated CALIOP and MODIS data show that its performance is consistent over different ecosystems and significantly better than the MODIS Cloud Mask (MOD35 C6) during the winter seasons over snow-covered areas in the mid-latitudes. Simulations using a reduced number of satellite channels also show satisfactory results, indicating its flexibility to be configured for different sensors. Comparedto threshold-based methods and previous machine-learning approaches, this new cloud mask (i) does not rely on thresholds, (ii) needs fewer satellite channels, (iii) has superior performance during winter seasons in mid-latitude areas, and (iv) can easily be applied to different sensors.

cloud mask algorithms↗

DOE OSTI2025

169 Tm ( n , γ ) cross section and statistical decay properties from measurements at the DANCE facility

Background: Radiative neutron capture on thulium, which is a monoisotopic element, plays a role in different applications such as nuclear astrophysics or nuclear burning environments. Considerable discrepancies—reaching 20%—exist between evaluations in the unresolved-resonance region. Furthermore, experimental data on statistical 𝛾 decay in odd-odd rare-earth nuclei is scarce. There are still open questions about the systematics of the so-called scissors mode in the 𝑀⁢1 photon strength function, especially in odd-odd nuclei. Purpose: This work is focused on two main topics—deriving experimental 169 Tm ⁢(𝑛,𝛾) cross section and studying statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm, in particular properties of the scissors mode. Methods: The capture experiments to obtain experimental cross section were performed at the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center using the time-of-flight technique and employing the Detector for Advanced Neutron Capture Experiments. Measured coincident 𝛾-ray spectra were also compared with statistical simulations using the dicebox code to test different models of level density and photon strength functions. Results: The capture cross section was determined from 1.8 eV to 0.97 MeV, the broadest neutron-energy range ever measured for this isotope. Several new resonances have been observed. The statistical 𝛾 decay of 170 Tm cannot be reproduced without a scissors mode resonance centered at ≈ 3.3MeV. Conclusions: The measured cross section in the unresolved-resonance region is generally lower than the latest evaluations. The derived 169 Tm 𝑠-process abundance is expected to increase by a factor of 1.26, while the changes of the abundances of elements heavier than 169 Tm are in the order of 0.2%. The scissors mode properties in 170 Tm are similar to those deduced in previous analyses of neighboring nuclei 168 Er and 166 Ho .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Use of Polarization Lidar for Investigation of Meteorological Formations

This paper presents the results of theoretical and experimental, investigations of depolarization characteristics of different meteorological formations. Experimental investigations are carried out with a monostatic lidar. The ruby laser radiation is polarized in a vertical plane. The radiation reflected is accepted by a lens system of 150 rom in diameter and a viewing angle of 12' and further it is divided by Wollaston prism into the components polarized orthogonally. In this case the principal plane of the prism is exposed parallel with the laser polarization plane. Investigations show the degree of radiation polarization, reflected from water clouds, to be changed within 1/0.7 (seldom up to 0.6) depending on their density. In most cases a signal reflected from the cloud leading edge is polarized completely. The time shift is observed between polarized and crosspolarized components of a Fignal, reflected from a cloud, depending on the density of a meteorological object. While penetrating into the cloud depth a degree of polarization decreases up to 0.8-0.7, and the character of this decrease is different for various types of clouds. For crystal clouds the shift between the components of the reflected signal is not observed and the magnitude of polarization degree amounts to 0.1/0.3 in comparison with water clouds. The polarization degree of radiation reflected by fog is not less than 0.6, and that in the rains of average intensity (about 5 mm/h) is always about 1. The authors have suggested an algorithm of numerical solution of nonstationary transfer equation in the vector form to forecast the influence of multiple scattering effects on polarization characteristics of the lidar light signal. The method of statistical simulation (Monte-Carlo technique) forms the basis of the algorithm. Numerical estimates obtained for a model of stratocumulus at lambda = 0.6943 microns under boundary conditions close to the conditions of natural experiment being discussed proved to be in a good agreement with the results of observation. Specifically, Fig. 1 shows the profiles of polarization (p) versus depth (L) of the following drop formations: fog (curve 1) with horizontal meteorological visibility of 4 km two stratocumulus at a height of 1100 m with the attenuation factors delta = 0.01m(exp -1) (curve 2) and delta = 0.05m(exp -1) (curve 3). Curve 3 shows the results of numerical estimates and the value of their statistical error.

Balin, Yu. S.↗

NASA NTRS2020

MPAS - Ocean Simulation Quality for Variable-Resolution North American Coastal Meshes

Climate model components utilizing unstructured meshes enable variableresolution, regionally enhanced simulations within global domains. Here we investigate the relationship between mesh quality and simulation statistics using the JIGSAW unstructured meshing library and the Model for Prediction Across ScalesOcean (MPASOcean) with a focus on Gulf Stream dynamics. In the base configuration, the refined region employs 8 km cells that extend 400 km from the coast of North America. This coastal refined region is embedded within a lowresolution global domain, with cell size varying latitudinally between 30 and 60 km. The resolution transition region between the refined region and background mesh is 600 km wide. Three sensitivity tests are conducted: 1) the quality of meshes is intentionally degraded so that horizontal cells are progressively more distorted; 2) the transition region from high to low resolution is steepened; and 3) resolution of the coastal refinement region is varied from 30 km to 8 km. Overall, the ocean simulations are shown to be robust to mesh resolution and quality alterations. Meshes that are substantially degraded still produce realistic currents, with Southern Ocean transports within 0.4% and Gulf Stream transports within 12% of highquality mesh results. The narrowest transition case of 100 km did not produce any spurious effects. Refined regions with high resolution produce eddy kinetic energy and sea surface height variability that are similar to the highresolution reference simulation. These results provide heuristics for the design criteria of variableresolution climate model domains.

Hoch, Kristin E.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic symplectic reduced-order modeling for model-form uncertainty quantification in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles

Here, this work focuses on the representation of model-form uncertainties in molecular dynamics simulations in various statistical ensembles. In prior contributions, the modeling of such uncertainties was formalized and applied to quantify the impact of, and the error generated by, pair-potential selection in the microcanonical ensemble (NVE). In this work, we extend this formulation and present a linear-subspace reduced-order model for the canonical (NVT) and isobaric (NPT) ensembles. The symplectic reduced-order basis is randomized on the tangent space of the Stiefel manifold to provide topological relationships and capture model-form uncertainty. Using the Large-scale Atomic/Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator (LAMMPS), we assess the relevance of these stochastic reduced-order atomistic models on canonical problems involving a Lennard-Jones fluid and an argon crystal melt.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evidence of Directional Structural Superlubricity and Lévy Flights in a van der Waals Heterostructure

Abstract Structural superlubricity is a special frictionless contact in which two crystals are in incommensurate arrangement such that relative in‐plane translation is associated with vanishing energy barrier crossing. So far, it has been realized in multilayer graphene and other van der Waals (2D crystals with hexagonal or triangular crystalline symmetries, leading to isotropic frictionless contacts. Directional structural superlubricity, to date unrealized in 2D systems, is possible when the reciprocal lattices of the two crystals coincide in one direction only. Here, directional structural superlubricity a α‐bismuthene/graphite van der Waals system is evidenced, manifested by spontaneous hopping of the islands over hundreds of nanometers at room temperature, resolved by low‐energy electron microscopy and supported by registry simulations. Statistical analysis of individual and collective α‐bismuthene islands populations reveal a heavy‐tailed distribution of the hopping lengths and sticking times indicative of Lévy flight dynamics, largely unobserved in condensed‐matter systems.

Le Ster, Maxime↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing nuclear structure of heavy ions at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

We perform high-statistics simulations to study the impacts of nuclear structure on the ratios of anisotropic flow observables in 208 Pb + 208 Pb and 129 Xe + 129 Xe collisions at the Large Hadron Collider. Even with 40% difference in atomic numbers between 208 Pb and 129 Xe nuclei, the ratios of anisotropic flow in the same centrality class between the two collision systems are strongly affected by the nuclear structure inputs in the initial state. The ratios of v 2 ⁡{4}/v 2 ⁡{2} in these collisions are sensitive to the nuclear skin thickness of the colliding nuclei, providing indirect constraints on the nuclei's neutron skin. In conclusion, our model predictions serve as a benchmark to compare with experimental measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1974

Economical technique for fragmentation testing

Automatic rifle was modified for remote, single-shot use. To simulate statistically--determined fragment size from rocket-motor casing blunt-nosed bullet was made of same alloy. Cartridge was loaded with enough powder to make bullet reach target at same estimated velocity as shrapnel from rocket casing.

Smith, T. H., III↗

NASA NTRS1976

Energy spectra of X-ray clusters of galaxies

A procedure for estimating the ranges of parameters that describe the spectra of X-rays from clusters of galaxies is presented. The applicability of the method is proved by statistical simulations of cluster spectra; such a proof is necessary because of the nonlinearity of the spectral functions. Implications for the spectra of the Perseus, Coma, and Virgo clusters are discussed. The procedure can be applied in more general problems of parameter estimation.

Avni, Y.↗

NASA NTRS1980

An investigation of automatic guidance concepts to steer a VTOL aircraft to a small aviation facility ship

A detailed system model of a VTOL aircraft approaching a small aviation facility ship was developed and used to investigate several approach guidance concepts. A preliminary anaysis of the aircraft-vessel landing guidance requirements was conducted. The various subelements and constraints of the flight system are described including the landing scenario, lift fan aircraft, state rate feedback flight control, MLS-based navigation, sea state induced ship motion, and wake turbulence due to wind-over-deck effects. These elements are integrated into a systems model with various guidance concepts. Guidance is described in terms of lateral, vertical, and longitudinal axes steering modes and approach and landing phases divided by a nominal hover (or stationkeeping) point defined with respect to the landing pad. The approach guidance methods are evaluated, and the two better steering concepts are studied by both single pass and Monte Carlo statistical simulation runs. Four different guidance concepts are defined for further analysis for the landing phase of flight.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

An algorithm for using a laser anemometer to determine mean streamline patterns in a turbulent flow

The technique of tracing out a mean flow streamline with a three dimensional laser Doppler anemometer (LDA) is discussed with respect to cumulative, systematic errors that are inherent when the motion of the LDA test point is in the direction of the local measured velocity. Using simple potential flows that have variable curvature and inflection points to simulate an LDA experiment, a streamline tracing algorithm is developed that minimizes these errors. Also, the test point path remains close to the correct streamline even when simulated statistical measurement variations are included.

Orloff, K. L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Predicting performance of parallel computations

An accurate and computationally efficient method for predicting the performance of a class of parallel computations running on concurrent systems is described. A parallel computation is modeled as a task system with precedence relationships expressed as a series-parallel directed acyclic graph. Resources in a concurrent system are modeled as service centers in a queuing network model. Using these two models as inputs, the method outputs predictions of expected execution time of the parallel computation and the concurrent system utilization. The method is validated against both detailed simulation and actual execution on a commercial multiprocessor. Using 100 test cases, the average error of the prediction when compared to simulation statistics is 1.7 percent, with a standard deviation of 1.5 percent; the maximum error is about 10 percent.

Mak, Victor W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Macroscopic and bulk-controlled elastic modes in an interaction of interstitial alcali metal cations within a face-centered cubic crystalline fullerine

The calculations in a majority of previous works for the fulleride (AqC-60) crystals were performed within the framework of the rigid-lattice model, neglecting the distortion relaxation of the host fullerene (C-60) crystal caused by the interstitial alkali-metal (A) cations. However, an each cation is a source of a static distortion field, and the resulting field is a superposition of such fields generated by all cations. This is a reason why the host-crystal distortions depend on the A-cations configurations, i.e. on a type of a spatial bulk distribution of interstitial cations. The given paper seeks to find a functional relation between the amplitudes of the doping-induced structure-distortion waves and of static concentration ones. A semiphenomenological model is constructed here within the scope of statistical-thermodynamic treatment and using the lattice-statistics simulation method(*). In this model the effects due to the presence of q solute A cations over available interstices (per unit cell) on the static inherent reorientation and/or displacements of the solvent molecules from the 'average-lattice' sites' as well as on the lattice parameter a of a elastically-anysotropic 'cubic' C-60 crystal are taken into account.

Tatarenko, Valentine A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Forecasting Proximal Femur and Wrist Fracture Caused by a Fall to the Side during Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of bone fracture in space is a concern due to the negative impact it could have on a mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center is a statistical simulation that quantifies the probability of bone fracture at specific skeletal locations for particular activities or events during space exploration missions. This paper reports fracture probability predictions for the proximal femur and wrist resulting from a fall to the side during an extravehicular activity (EVA) on specific days of lunar and Martian exploration missions. The risk of fracture at the proximal femur on any given day of the mission is small and fairly constant, although it is slightly greater towards the end of the mission, due to a reduction in proximal femur bone mineral density (BMD). The risk of wrist fracture is greater than the risk of hip fracture and there is an increased risk on Mars since it has a higher gravitational environment than the moon. The BFxRM can be used to help manage the risk of bone fracture in space as an engineering tool that is used during mission operation and resource planning.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Thermochemical Ablation Analysis of the Orion Heatshield

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle will one day carry astronauts to the Moon and beyond, and Orion's heatshield is a critical component in ensuring their safe return to Earth. The Orion heatshield is the structural component responsible for absorbing the intense heating environment caused by re-entry to Earth's atmosphere. The heatshield is primarily composed of Avcoat, an ablative material that is consumed during the re-entry process. Ablation is primarily characterized by two processes: pyrolysis and recession. The decomposition of in-depth virgin material is known as pyrolysis. Recession occurs when the exposed surface of the heatshield reacts with the surrounding flow. The Orion heatshield design was changed from an individually filled Avcoat honeycomb to a molded block Avcoat design. The molded block Avcoat heatshield relies on an adhesive bond to keep it attached to the capsule. In some locations on the heatshield, the integrity of the adhesive bond cannot be verified. For these locations, a mechanical retention device was proposed. Avcoat ablation was modelled in CHAR and the in-depth virgin material temperatures were used in a Thermal Desktop model of the mechanical retention device. The retention device was analyzed and shown to cause a large increase in the maximum bondline temperature. In order to study the impact of individual ablation modelling parameters on the heatshield sizing process, a Monte Carlo simulation of the sizing process was proposed. The simulation will give the sensitivity of the ablation model to each of its input parameters. As part of the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on material properties were required for Avcoat. Several properties were difficult to acquire uncertainties for: the pyrolysis gas enthalpy, non-dimensional mass loss rate (B´c), and Arrhenius equation parameters. Variability in the elemental composition of Avcoat was used as the basis for determining the statistical uncertainty in pyrolysis gas enthalpy and B´c. A MATLAB program was developed to allow for faster, more accurate and automated computation of Arrhenius reaction parameters. These parameters are required for a material model to be used in the CHAR ablation analysis program. This MATLAB program, along with thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data, was used to generate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for Avcoat. In addition, the TGA fitting program was developed to provide Arrhenius parameters for the ablation model of the gap filler material, RTV silicone.

Sixel, William↗

NASA NTRS2018

Determination of Uncertainties for Analytically Derived Material Properties to Be Used in Monte Carlo Based Orion Heatshield Sizing

Ablative materials are often used for spacecraft heatshields to protect underlying structures from the extreme environments associated with atmospheric reentry. NASA's Orion EM-1 capsule has been designed to use a molded Avcoat material system. In order to determine the required heatshield thickness, a Monte Carlo approach to the sizing process was proposed. To perform the Monte Carlo simulation, statistical uncertainties on all material property input parameters were required. Obtaining these values for measured properties is straightforward, however input parameters that are derived analytically have historically used uncertainties based on engineering judgment. A MATLAB program was created to use laboratory generated thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) data to calculate uncertainties on the Arrhenius parameters for molded Avcoat. Uncertainties associated with the normalized ablation rate and pyrolysis gas enthalpy were also generated using a wrapper script and the ACE code. These uncertainties could then be tied directly to measured values of individual elemental constituents. The resulting uncertainty values will allow for a probabilistic sizing approach on molded Avcoat with a higher level of confidence in the input parameters.

material property uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS2015

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗