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Towards a Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost approximately (X) D(exp (1.75 +/- 0.05)) lambda(exp(-0.5 +/- 0.25) T(exp -0.25) e (exp (-0.04)Y). Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).

Space Mirror Technology

Predictive Thermal Control (PTC) Technology to Enable Thermally Stable Telescopes

Validate models that predict thermal optical performance of real mirrors and structure based on their structural designs and constituent material properties, i.e. CTE distribution, thermal conductivity, thermal mass, etc.. Derive thermal system stability specifications from science-driven wavefront-stability requirement. Demonstrate utility of PTC system for achieving thermal stability.

Space Mirror Technology

Method for Deriving Telescope Specifications for Earth-Detecting Coronagraphs and Its Use in Prioritizing Technology Development Investments

Different potential exoplanet mission concepts require different enabling and enhancing technologies. Decisions regarding prioritizing the development of these technologies can be made using a Science-Driven Systems-Engineering framework. The white paper makes the following specific recommendations. (1) Any potential telescope/coronagraph combination should develop a wavefront stability error budget using the method described in this white paper. That error budget will inform discussions about what technology development will be needed to enable the mission. (2) Enhancing and enabling technologies requiring investment include: low noise reaction wheels or control moment gyros; micro-thruster technology; active vibration isolation; materials and design practice for making lightweight stiff structures and optical components; 200-hertz wavefront sensing and control; 500-hertz sub-picometer-precision edge sensor and position actuators; non-destructive process to quantify CTE (Coefficient of Thermal Expansion) homogeneity of 4-meter class mirrors to an uncertainty of plus or minus 1 parts per billion per degree Kelvin over a 100 by 100 sampling; laser gauge positional metrology system; and predictive active thermal control.

Space Mirror Technology

SLS Launched Missions Concept Studies for LUVOIR Mission

NASA's "Enduring Quests Daring Visions" report calls for an 8- to 16-meter Large UV-Optical-IR (LUVOIR) Surveyor mission to enable ultra-high-contrast spectroscopy and coronagraphy. AURA's "From Cosmic Birth to Living Earth" report calls for a 12-meter class High-Definition Space Telescope to pursue transformational scientific discoveries. The multi-center ATLAST Team is working to meet these needs. The MSFC Team is examining potential concepts that leverage the advantages of the SLS (Space Launch System). A key challenge is how to affordably get a large telescope into space. The JWST design was severely constrained by the mass and volume capacities of its launch vehicle. This problem is solved by using an SLS Block II-B rocket with its 10-m diameter x 30-m tall fairing and 45 mt payload to SE-L2. Previously, two development study cycles produced a detailed concept called ATLAST-8. Using ATLAST-8 as a point of departure, this paper reports on a new ATLAST-12 concept. ATLAST-12 is a 12-meter class segmented aperture LUVOIR with an 8-m class center segment. Thus, ATLAST-8 is now a de-scope option.

Mirror

Analysis of Random Segment Errors on Coronagraph Performance

At 2015 SPIE O&P we presented "Preliminary Analysis of Random Segment Errors on Coronagraph Performance" Key Findings: Contrast Leakage for 4thorder Sinc2(X) coronagraph is 10X more sensitive to random segment piston than random tip/tilt, Fewer segments (i.e. 1 ring) or very many segments (> 16 rings) has less contrast leakage as a function of piston or tip/tilt than an aperture with 2 to 4 rings of segments. Revised Findings: Piston is only 2.5X more sensitive than Tip/Tilt

Technology

Potential Large Decadal Missions Enabled by Nasas Space Launch System

Large space telescope missions have always been limited by their launch vehicle's mass and volume capacities. The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) was specifically designed to fit inside the Space Shuttle and the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is specifically designed to fit inside an Ariane 5. Astrophysicists desire even larger space telescopes. NASA's "Enduring Quests Daring Visions" report calls for an 8- to 16-m Large UV-Optical-IR (LUVOIR) Surveyor mission to enable ultra-high-contrast spectroscopy and coronagraphy. AURA's "From Cosmic Birth to Living Earth" report calls for a 12-m class High-Definition Space Telescope to pursue transformational scientific discoveries. NASA's "Planning for the 2020 Decadal Survey" calls for a Habitable Exoplanet Imaging (HabEx) and a LUVOIR as well as Far-IR and an X-Ray Surveyor missions. Packaging larger space telescopes into existing launch vehicles is a significant engineering complexity challenge that drives cost and risk. NASA's planned Space Launch System (SLS), with its 8 or 10-m diameter fairings and ability to deliver 35 to 45-mt of payload to Sun-Earth-Lagrange-2, mitigates this challenge by fundamentally changing the design paradigm for large space telescopes. This paper reviews the mass and volume capacities of the planned SLS, discusses potential implications of these capacities for designing large space telescope missions, and gives three specific mission concept implementation examples: a 4-m monolithic off-axis telescope, an 8-m monolithic on-axis telescope and a 12-m segmented on-axis telescope.

Technology