Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Solar Futures Study”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Star Formation and the Solar System

We have seen that studies of nearby star-forming regions are beginning to reveal the first signs of protoplanetary disks. Studies of interstellar and interplanetary grains are starting to provide clues about the processing and incorporation of matter into the Solar System. Studies of meteorites have yielded isotopic anomalies which indicate that some of the grains and inclusions in these bodies are very primitive. Although we have not yet detected a true interstellar grain, some of these materials have not been extensively modified since their removal from the ISM. We are indeed close to seeing our interstellar heritage. The overlap between astronomical and Solar System studies is in its infancy. What future experiments, observations, and missions can be performed in the near future that will greatly enhance our understanding of star formation and the formation of the Solar System?

Bally, John↗

Solar System Exploration Augmented by Lunar and Outer Planet Resource Utilization: Historical Perspectives and Future Possibilities

Establishing a lunar presence and creating an industrial capability on the Moon may lead to important new discoveries for all of human kind. Historical studies of lunar exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and industrialization all point to the vast resources on the Moon and its links to future human and robotic exploration. In the historical work, a broad range of technological innovations are described and analyzed. These studies depict program planning for future human missions throughout the solar system, lunar launched nuclear rockets, and future human settlements on the Moon, respectively. Updated analyses based on the visions presented are presented. While advanced propulsion systems were proposed in these historical studies, further investigation of nuclear options using high power nuclear thermal propulsion, nuclear surface power, as well as advanced chemical propulsion can significantly enhance these scenarios. Robotic and human outer planet exploration options are described in many detailed and extensive studies. Nuclear propulsion options for fast trips to the outer planets are discussed. To refuel such vehicles, atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has also been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen (H2) can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and H2 (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses have investigated resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. These analyses included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists.

Palaszewski, Bryan↗

Solar System Exploration Augmented by Lunar and Outer Planet Resource Utilization: Historical Perspectives and Future Possibilities

Establishing a lunar presence and creating an industrial capability on the Moon may lead to important new discoveries for all of human kind. Historical studies of lunar exploration, in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) and industrialization all point to the vast resources on the Moon and its links to future human and robotic exploration. In the historical work, a broad range of technological innovations are described and analyzed. These studies depict program planning for future human missions throughout the solar system, lunar launched nuclear rockets, and future human settlements on the Moon, respectively. Updated analyses based on the visions presented are presented. While advanced propulsion systems were proposed in these historical studies, further investigation of nuclear options using high power nuclear thermal propulsion, nuclear surface power, as well as advanced chemical propulsion can significantly enhance these scenarios. Robotic and human outer planet exploration options are described in many detailed and extensive studies. Nuclear propulsion options for fast trips to the outer planets are discussed. To refuel such vehicles, atmospheric mining in the outer solar system has also been investigated as a means of fuel production for high energy propulsion and power. Fusion fuels such as Helium 3 (3He) and hydrogen can be wrested from the atmospheres of Uranus and Neptune and either returned to Earth or used in-situ for energy production. Helium 3 and hydrogen (deuterium, etc.) were the primary gases of interest with hydrogen being the primary propellant for nuclear thermal solid core and gas core rocket-based atmospheric flight. A series of analyses have investigated resource capturing aspects of atmospheric mining in the outer solar system. These analyses included the gas capturing rate, storage options, and different methods of direct use of the captured gases. While capturing 3He, large amounts of hydrogen and 4He are produced. With these two additional gases, the potential for fueling small and large fleets of additional exploration and exploitation vehicles exists.

Palaszewski, Bryan↗

Bent crystal spectrometer for solar X-ray spectroscopy

A bent crystal spectrometer employs a collimated beam of X-rays incident on the crystal over a range of Bragg angles determined by the orientation and curvature of the crystal surface. It provides continuous and simultaneous coverage of all X-ray wavelengths within its spectral range. In-flight testing for solar X-ray spectroscopy was performed using a small instrument to supplement the wavelength coverage of several scanning spectrometers used to study solar active regions in the 9-24 A range. Later testing included modifications to alleviate problems caused by ultraviolet radiation. Future usage of the device will include studies of time variable emission from solar flares or discrete galactic X-ray sources, and the first major experiment to utilize bent crystal spectrometers will be the Solar Maximum Mission satellite in 1979.

Rapley, C. G.↗

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

Periodic Solar Wind Structures Observed in Measurements of Elemental and Ionic Composition in situ at L1

Mesoscale periodic structures observed in solar wind plasma serve as an important diagnostic tool for constraining the processes that govern the formation of the solar wind. These structures have been observed in situ and in remote data as fluctuations in proton and electron density. However, only two events of this type have been reported regarding the elemental and ionic composition. Composition measurements are especially important in gaining an understanding of the origin of the solar wind as the composition is frozen into the plasma at the Sun and does not evolve as it advects through the heliosphere. Here, we present the analysis of four events containing mesoscale periodic solar wind structure during which the Iron and Magnesium number density data, measured by the Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer (SWICS)on board the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft, are validated at statistically significant count levels. We use a spectral analysis method specifically designed to extract periodic signals from astrophysical time series and apply it to the SWICS 12-minute native resolution dataset. We find variations in the relative abundance of elements with low first ionization potential, mass dependencies, and charge state during time intervals in which mesoscale periodic structures are observed. These variations are linked to temporal or spatial variations in solar source regions and put constraints on the solar wind formation mechanisms that produce them. Techniques presented here are relevant for future, higher-resolution studies of data from new instruments such as Solar Orbiter’s Heavy Ion Sensor.

Irena Gershkovich↗

Low-cost ion implantation and annealing technology for solar cells

Ion implantation and thermal annealing techniques for processing junctions and back surface layers in solar cells are discussed. Standard 10 keV (31)p(+) junction implants and 25 keV (11)B(+) back surface implants in combination with three-step furnace annealing are used for processing a range of silicon materials and device structures. Cells with efficiencies up to 16.5% AM1 are being produced, and large-area terrestrial cells with implanted junctions and back fields being fabricated in pilot production exhibit average efficiencies in excess of 15% AM1. Thermal annealing methods for removal of the radiation damage caused by implantation should be replaced by transient processing techniques in future production. Design studies have been completed for solar cell processing implanters to support 10 MW/yr and 100 MW/yr production lines, and analyses indicate that implantation costs can be reduced to approximately 1 cent/watt.

Kirkpatrick, A. H.↗

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Renewable-battery hybrid power plants in congested electricity markets: Implications for plant configuration

Examining coupled renewable-battery power plants (“hybrids”) in congested areas provides insights into a future of increased wind and solar penetration. Our study focuses on two types of congested regions, Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)-rich Areas and Load Centers, and explores likely plant configuration choices for developers and transmission network planners. Here, this paper examines how hybrid value, comprising energy and capacity value, varies by plant configuration and congested region type considering factors such as storage duration, battery degradation, and ability to charge from the grid. We select plant locations from across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs). Hybrid value for each configuration is computed based on profit-maximizing plant operation given perfect foresight, according to observed wholesale power market real time prices from 2018 to 2021. In VRE-rich Areas, the median increase in energy value from extending storage duration from one to 4h is 29.4% for solar and 26.8% for wind, assuming low battery degradation costs and storage sized to 100% of the plant's nameplate generation capacity. Increasing storage duration beyond 4h does not substantially increase its value from energy markets, even in VRE-rich Areas. We find that solar hybrids reach a 90% capacity credit with 4h of storage, while wind hybrids require 8h of storage, based on the capacity factor of each hybrid during the top 100 net load hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Future Satellite Observations of Solar Irradiance

Required solar irradiance measurements for climate studies include those now being made by the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) onboard the SORCE satellite, part of the Earth Observing System fleet of NASA satellites. Equivalent or better measures of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and Spectral Solar Irradiance (SSI, 200 to 2000 nm) are planned for the post-2010 satellites of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System ("OESS). The design life of SORCE is 5 years, so a "Solar Irradiance Gap Filler" EOS mission is being planned for launch in the 2007 time frame, to include the same TSI and SSI measurements. Besides avoiding any gap, overlap of the data sources is also necessary for determination of possible multi-decadal trends in solar irradiance. We discuss these requirements and the impacts of data gaps, and data overlaps, that may occur in the monitoring of the critical solar radiative forcing.

Cahalan, R. F.↗

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗

Solar Terrestrial Observatory for future space station program

The Solar Terrestrial Observatory (STO) Science Study Group was established in 1979 to formulate a scientific strategy for the development of a Solar Terrestrial Observatory as an interdependent problem-oriented combination of solar, magnetospheric, and atmospheric instruments. In the scenario formed by the STO Science Study Group, the STO would be mounted on a long-lived Space Platform, carried into orbit, and serviced by the Space Shuttle. The proposed strategy focused on investigations of the physical processes that interlink the major regions of solar-terrestrial space. In reviewing that strategy, one quickly concludes that the STO objectives can be met, and in many ways enhanced, by using a Shuttle-serviced manned Space Station. This conclusion is reinforced by the results of earlier workshops devoted to manned Space Stations.

Roberts, W. T.↗

The Mees CCD imaging spectrograph

The Mees CCD (MCCD0 instrument is an imaging spectroscopy device which uses the 25-cm coronagraph telescope and the 3.0-m Coude spectrograph at Mees Solar Observatory on Haleakala, Maui. The instrument works with resolving power up to about 200,000 with significant throughput from 3934 A (Ca II K) to about 10,000 A. A fast guiding active mirror stabilizes the image during observations. A rapidly writing magnetic tape storage system allows observations to be recorded at 256 kbytes/s. Currently, the MCCD is used for imaging spectroscopy of solar flares at 6563 A (H-alpha), and velocity measurements of umbral oscillations; future plans include emission line studies of active region coronae, and photospheric studies of solar oscillations.

Penn, Matthew J.↗

Space Studies of the Earth-Moon System, Planets, and Small Bodies of the Solar System (B) Past, Present and Future of Small Body Science and Exploration (B0.4)

To achieve its long-term goal of sending humans to Mars, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) plans to proceed in a series of incrementally more complex human space flight missions. Today, human flight experience extends only to Low- Earth Orbit (LEO), and should problems arise during a mission, the crew can return to Earth in a matter of minutes to hours. The next logical step for human space flight is to gain flight experience in the vicinity of the Moon. These cis-lunar missions provide a "proving ground" for the testing of systems and operations while still accommodating an emergency return path to the Earth that would last only several days. Cis-lunar mission experience will be essential for more ambitious human missions beyond the Earth-Moon system, which will require weeks, months, or even years of transit time. In addition, NASA has been given a Grand Challenge to find all asteroid threats to human populations and know what to do about them. Obtaining knowledge of asteroid physical properties combined with performing technology demonstrations for planetary defense provide much needed information to address the issue of future asteroid impacts on Earth. Hence the combined objectives of human exploration and planetary defense give a rationale for the Asteroid Re-direct Mission (ARM).

Abell, Paul↗

Comparison of candidate solar array maximum power utilization approaches

A study was made of five potential approaches that can be utilized to detect the maximum power point of a solar array while sustaining operations at or near maximum power and without endangering stability or causing array voltage collapse. The approaches studied included: (1) dynamic impedance comparator, (2) reference array measurement, (3) onset of solar array voltage collapse detection, (4) parallel tracker, and (5) direct measurement. The study analyzed the feasibility and adaptability of these approaches to a future solar electric propulsion (SEP) mission, and, specifically, to a comet rendezvous mission. Such missions presented the most challenging requirements to a spacecraft power subsystem in terms of power management over large solar intensity ranges of 1.0 to 3.5 AU. The dynamic impedance approach was found to have the highest figure of merit, and the reference array approach followed closely behind. The results are applicable to terrestrial solar power systems as well as to other than SEP space missions.

Costogue, E. N.↗

Gamma-ray, neutron, and hard X-ray studies and requirements for a high-energy solar physics facility

The requirements for future high-resolution spatial, spectral, and temporal observation of hard X-rays, gamma rays and neutrons from solar flares are discussed in the context of current high-energy flare observations. There is much promise from these observations for achieving a deep understanding of processes of energy release, particle acceleration and particle transport in a complicated environment such as the turbulent and highly magnetized atmosphere of the active sun.

Ramaty, R.↗

Overview of NASA solar physics programs

The program of solar physics missions for the 1980's will include earth-orbiting and solar-orbiting free flying satellites as well as Shuttle sorties carrying large facility instruments and smaller PI-class investigations. Individual missions will have specific, unifying objectives in contrast to the exploratory nature of missions of the 1960's and 70's. The Solar Maximum Mission will study solar flares in 1980 and 1981. The International Solar Polar Mission will swing past Jupiter and traverse the Sun's polar caps in 1986, measuring the high-latitude solar wind. Three of the early Shuttle flights will carry PI-class solar experiments, and the Solar Optical Telescope, to fly in about 1984, will provide extremely high spatial resolution of solar features. Possible future missions include the Solar Cycle and Dynamics Mission to study the Sun's magnetic cycle, and the Solar Probe, which will pass within 4 solar radii of the Sun's surface.

Chipman, E.↗