DOE OSTI2018
This document reports the application of the N-R HES software framework to a case study for Arizona Public Service (APS); the manager and part owner of the Palo Verde (PV) nuclear power plant. The case study is a work in progress of which this report presents a detailed description of the current model input data, assumptions and the corresponding results produced by the developed software framework. The goal of the report is, that with this information APS (together with INL) should be able to identify where more detailed data and more accurate model assumptions are necessary to reproduce all driving physical and economic phenomena in order to capture enough complexity of the reality to allow APS to use the results for their strategic decisions. The N-R HES software framework started being developed at INL two years ago [ref]. The framework has reached some level of maturity so that it can be applied to more than simple demonstration cases, e.g. real industry problems. Nevertheless, more capabilities are constantly added to accommodate the special needs of these challenging real life problems. The N-R HES framework is built on top of the RAVEN code [ref] and uses it as driver and workflow manager for all calculations. The framework has specifically been developed for the economic assessment of N-R HES systems. There are four main cornerstones of the N-R HES simulation framework: 1) generation of stochastic time series, 2) a probabilistic analysis and optimization set of algorithms available in RAVEN, 3) a set of models for representation of the physical behavior of N-R HES, and 4) a RAVEN plug-in that maps physical performance into economic performance called CashFlow. Within this framework, a broad spectrum of questions related to N-R HES can be addressed. One of the challenges currently of high interest is that the increasing penetration of variable renewables is altering the profile of the net demand (demand after removing all non curtailable renewable energy sources), with which the other generators on the grid have to cope. The N-R HES software framework is capable to analyze the potential feasibility of mitigating the resultant volatility in the net electricity demand. One possible solution to that problem currently intensively studied by the energy industry is adding stabilizing loads to the grid. These loads can be external industrial processes that are able to ramp production up and down quickly or adding variable internal loads that will lift the base load of the power plant. The latter is a possible solution currently studied by APS. APS if currently anticipating several challenges that will likely arise in the near future. One of them is, as mentioned, coping with the rapid growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources put on the grid. Although APS can sell its electricity for a fixed retail price to cover the local demand first, it also sells electricity in excess of the local demand at the Palo Verde energy hub. Due to the growing VRE penetration, the Palo Verde hub electricity spot price is negative more and more frequently. To mitigate this price volatility, APS is seeking to add more base load, so that the quantity of excess energy to be sold for prices potentially less than the internal retail price or even negative prices at the hub is reduced. A second challenge APS is facing is that their cooling water acquisition contract with the Sub Regional Operating Group (SROG) will expire soon and a renewal can only be done for a significantly higher price of the water. Therefore, APS is also seeking for alternative sources for their cooling water. An opportunity currently under investigation is to pump a limited quantity of brackish water from the regional ground water. Although much cheaper than the water from the new SROG contract, the salinity of the brackish water is so high that a blend of brackish and SROG water would need additional treatment to improve its quality for use in the cooling towers. An on-site reverse osmosis (RO) desalination plant is envisaged to reduce the salinity to an acceptable level. This report investigates the economic impact of such an RO plant. As one can see, the RO plant would help with both problems APS is facing: First, it would rise the APS base load helping to mitigate VRE induced hub price volatility. From this perspective, the RO plant can be seen as a stabilizing load on the grid as would be any other industrial process. Second, the RO’s goods, e.g. the clean water produced can be used by APS itself for a (hopefully) lower cost than 100% SROG water would be. The report will first describe the APS water procurement strategy in detail and lay out the possible alternative scenarios studied in this document. This is covered in Chapter 2. Next, in Chapter 3, the APS case model developed within the N-R HES software framework is described. This chapter includes also a description of the needed framework developments to accommodate the APS study.
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