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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Machine Learning Approach for Hourly Traffic Prediction Used in EV-Charging Sites

Reliable forecasting of hourly traffic volumes on highways is critical for planning and operating electric-vehicle charging infrastructure without overloading the grid. In this work, we develop and evaluate a station-specific machine-learning approach based on NeuralProphet, enhanced with conditional seasonality to better distinguish weekday, weekend, and holiday patterns. For each station, the model automatically retrieves the same calendar day from the prior years as an AR-Net initialization, fits trend and Fourier-based seasonality components, and then applies short-term auto-regressive corrections. We train and test on 2021 and 2022 TMAS data, respectively, and validate performance over the whole year. We chose to demonstrate how the model performs on a typical weekday (3/15/2022), weekend (3/27/2022), and a special holiday (12/25/2022). Our results yield MAPE of 7.4%, 23.6%, and 32.0%, respectively. Over the entire year 2022, the overall MAPE was 17%. This demonstrates that station-specific models with conditional seasonality can achieve accurate, scalable hourly forecasts for EV-charging load planning.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources

As extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, the demand for connecting grid operation and infrastructure planning with extreme event models will increase as well. We present a methodology for creating damage contingencies and scenarios for electric transmission grids during a hurricane strike. Included is an example case study: Hurricane Dolly damaging a synthetic 2000 bus test system during its landing in Southern Texas. Using WIND Toolkit meteorological data in conjunction with fragility curves for various electric grid elements, we generate stochastic damage scenarios that can be used for short- and long-term planning problems including emergency asset management. We perform statistical analysis of damages and quantify topological effects on example synthetic grid. Also, we investigate loss-of-load events during two-day economic dispatch experiment. Finally, we point out various shortcomings of our method and suggest how it can be improved.

data-driven forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating Impacts of Extreme Events on Grids with High Penetrations of Wind Power Resources: Preprint

contingencies↗

DOE OSTI2026

Feedforward-feedback ammonia control at a water resource recovery facility based on a digital twin with hybrid model

Ammonia-based aeration control (ABAC) at full-scale Water Resource Recovery Facilities (WRRFs) can be challenged by diurnal loading and transport delays. This work addressed these challenges using a hybrid feedforward–feedback controller built on Activated Sludge Model 1 (ASM1), marking the first full-scale deployment to pair a mechanistic feedforward core with data-driven corrections. The objectives were to improve ammonia setpoint tracking, assess performance of the mechanistic model when enhanced with data-driven corrections, and document full-scale operation. The hybrid model incorporates two data-driven components: (1) a Mechanistic Error Forecasting Engine (MEFE), consisting of a multivariate linear regressor and a long short-term memory (LSTM) ensemble. Defying expectations, low-parameter models outperformed more complex alternatives, reducing the mechanistic error by 71%. (2) A Residual Oscillation Forecasting Engine (ROFE), based on Fast Fourier Transform, reduced the remaining error by another 35%. Two proportional–integral (PI) feedback loops further (i) trim the feedforward output and (ii) eliminate residual controller error in the final aerobic zone. In full-scale operation, the controller reduced mean-squared error (MSE) by 94% over the baseline and produced more stable dissolved oxygen (DO) setpoints. Overall, it was proven that layering multi-timescale data-driven models on a mechanistic core can yield reliable ABAC performance at WRRFs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Forecasting Commercial Building Electricity Consumption, Zone Airflow and Zone Temperature: Update - Development of a Generalized Machine Learning Approach

The U.S. power grid is being transformed to make it smarter, more efficient, and cleaner. This transformation is leading to the addition of a significant of energy generated by distributed, variable, and renewable resources. Because of the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply and demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalances will be less efficient or cost effective. To address this challenge and to support the mission and the vision of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Building Technologies Office has developed a Grid-Interactive Efficient Building Strategy. The strategy focuses on simultaneously improving building energy efficiency and supporting reliability and resilience of the electric grid more efficiently and at a lower cost. In addition, EERE and DOE’s Office of Electricity created an initiative led by DOE and supported by the national laboratories under the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium structure to enhance grid modernization. The work reported in this document is part of the first set of projects funded under the initiative to design, develop, and validate scalable transactive control technologies for the commercial buildings sector. Transactive controls requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical grey- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility. Although this approach is generally easy to construct and simple to use, it does not capture non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent. Therefore, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with support from Western Washington University conducted this research to explore the use of deep machine learning (ML) techniques. The work reported in this document is limited to forecasting whole building electricity consumption, the zone airflow and the zone temperature predictions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Convective potential and fuel availability complement near-surface weather in regulating global wildfire activity

Wildfires are favored by hot, dry, windy, rainless conditions—this knowledge about fire weather informs both short-term forecast and long-term prediction of wildfire activity. Yet, wildfires rely on the availability of ignition and fuel, which are underrepresented in fire forecast and prediction practices. By analyzing satellite measurements and atmospheric reanalysis, here we show that near-surface weather only partially captures wildfire occurrence and intensity across the daily to seasonal timescales. Beyond near-surface weather, convection and fuel abundance play a complementary role in regulating burning processes. Specifically, enhanced atmospheric convection is identified for over 40% of the low-human-impact regions and 61% of global burnable areas during wildfire ignition and spreading periods. Meanwhile, 56% of shrublands and 54% of grasslands see higher fuel load with actual occurrence of fire. Our results highlight the role of convection and fuel in wildfire forecast, prompting a revisit of wildfire prediction under intertwined atmospheric and terrestrial changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-driven modeling of power generation for a coal power plant under cycling

Increased penetration of renewables for power generation has negatively impacted the dynamics of conventional fossil fuel-based power plants. The power plants operating on the base load are forced to cycle, to adjust to the fluctuating power demands. This results in an inefficient operation of the coal power plants, which leads up to higher operating losses. To overcome such operational challenge associated with cycling and to develop an optimal process control, this work analyzes a set of models for predicting power generation. Moreover, the power generation is intrinsically affected by the state of the power plant components, and therefore our model development also incorporates additional power plant process variables while forecasting the power generation. We present and compare multiple state-of-the-art forecasting data-driven methods for power generation to determine the most adequate and accurate model. We also develop an interpretable attention-based transformer model to explain the importance of process variables during training and forecasting. The trained deep neural network (DNN) LSTM model has good accuracy in predicting gross power generation under various prediction horizons with/without cycling events and outperforms the other models for long-term forecasting. The DNN memory-based models show significant superiority over other state-of-the-art machine learning models for short, medium and long range predictions. The transformer-based model with attention enhances the selection of historical data for multi-horizon forecasting, and also allows to interpret the significance of internal power plant components on the power generation. This newly gained insights can be used by operation engineers to anticipate and monitor the health of power plant equipment during high cycling periods.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Forecasting Solar-Thermal Systems Performance under Transient Operation Using a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach Based on the Deep Operator Network Architecture

Modeling and prediction of the dynamic behavior of thermal systems operating under intermittent energy input and variable load requirements represent one of the greatest challenges in the development of efficient and reliable renewable-based power generation technologies. In this work, a data-driven machine learning modeling framework was developed based on a modified version of the Deep Operator Network architecture where the time coordinate in the trunk net is replaced with historical data of the predicting quantity. The modeling framework can be used to accurately predict the performance of renewable-based energy conversion technologies including wind- and solar-based power plants. This novel framework was applied on a solar-thermal system that consists of a solar collection loop using a flat plate collector, a power generation loop comprising an Organic Rankine Cycle, and a thermal energy storage tank connecting both loops. Variable solar irradiance, air temperature, and power load profiles were used by the Deep Operator Network to predict the State-of-Charge and the efficiency of the thermal system for several days. The results were compared with the State-of-Charge and efficiency functions calculated using a physics-based model. For a simple operation scenario, characterized by a clear sky solar irradiance profile and constant load, the standard deviation in the State-of-Charge prediction by Deep Operator Network is below 0.9% during a seven-day prediction time horizon. For the most realistic operation scenario that considers real solar irradiance and a rough load profile, the maximum standard deviation in the predictions for the State-of-Charge and efficiency are below 6.8% and 2.5%, respectively. A comparison between Deep Operator Network and Long Short Term Memory network was also performed. In general, both networks predict very well the State-of-Charge for different data density conditions; however, a higher accuracy, with a standard deviation below 2.0%, is obtained by the Deep Operator Network during three and half days using sparser training data of 20-minute points. The same accuracy for the State-of-Charge prediction with the Long Short Term Memory network is achieved only for 14 h. Average standard deviations for the State-of-Charge prediction of 1.1% with the Deep Operator Network and 1.5% with the Long Short Term Memory network are obtained for a four-day prediction time using a denser training data of 5-minute points.

DeepONet↗