Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Sensitivity Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E3SMv2 simulation output from sensitivity study on cloud formation

This dataset contains E3SMv2 simulation output files discussed in the manuscript approved for IR in PNNL-SA-206024. The dataset was used to examine the occurrences of ultra-low cloud droplet number concentrations in E3SMv2. Submitting the manuscript to a peer-reviewed journal will require making the model output publicly available. We plan to use DataHub for that.

Wan, Hui [PNNL] (ORCID:0000000152944116)↗

Sensitivity of the simulation of passive neutron emission from UF 6 cylinders to the uncertainties in both 19 F(α,n) energy spectrum and thick target yield of 234 U in UF 6

Interest in safeguards verification measurements using passive thermal neutron counting to assay 235 U content in large 30B UF 6 canisters has grown in recent years. Here, the prohibitively high cost and impracticality of using reference 30B calibration cylinders extensively will likely make accurate simulations of increasing interest. Accuracy of the simulated response will define the confidence in the predicted response and the extent to which simulations can reasonably be relied upon. With 234 U driven 19 F(α, n) reactions being the main neutron source in low enriched UF 6 the uncertainties of the 19 F(α, n) energy spectrum and the thick target yield of 234 U in UF 6 propagate into the uncertainty in the predicted response and represent a major influence of basic nuclear data. Here sensitivity of the simulated total (Singles) and coincidence (Doubles) count rates are assessed for the Passive Neutron Enrichment Meter using six potential 19 F(α, n) neutron energy spectra over a range of enrichments and material distributions. The results indicate that variations in the Singles and Doubles due to simulated (α, n) neutron spectrum are less than 1.5% for this set of simulated neutron spectra, with dependence varying inversely with enrichment. Singles uncertainty is only slightly less than that of the thick target 19 F(α, n) yield corresponding to the primary neutron source, whereas the 19 F(α, n) yield dependence of the Doubles is reduced by the non-negligible 238 U(SF) coincident neutron emissions. Based on available thick target 19 F(α, n) yield estimates the uncertainty is on the order of 5%, establishing this as the main nuclear data limitation when simulating thermal neutron detectors response for 30B UF 6 storage cylinders. Based on these findings, it appears that the measurement and evaluation of the thick target 19 F(α, n) yield for uranium hexafluoride is due.

19F(α,n) neutron spectrum↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Simulation of Hostile Blast Events [Slides]

A mesh convergence study shows that shock arrival times converge for basic flow shots. Sensitivity study reveals a surprisingly high sensitivity to the placement of the HE package. Bayesian inference tools used on the experimental datasets suggest this is a real effect. Sensitivity analysis of ambient conditions such as temperature and pressure reveal minimal effect. Porting of pressure data from QUINOA simulations to perform structural analysis on the aeroshell geometry was successful, and shows a strong dependence of payload response to the angle of attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗

E3SMv1 simulation output from sensitivity study on aerosol process coupling

This dataset contains annual mean and 6-hourly output data from a set of E3SMv1 simulations that demonstrates the impact of numerical process coupling on the simulated dust life cycle. The simulations are documented and analyzed in the attached manuscript (pdf file). Publishing the manuscript in a peer-reviewed journal will require making the model output publicly available. We plan to use DataHub for that. The data files to be uploaded are currently saved on Compy under /compyfs/wanh895/scidac_share/cflx_2023/

Wan, Hui↗

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Accurate Simulation of Both Sensitivity and Variability for Amazonian Photosynthesis: Is It Too Much to Ask?

Abstract Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of magnetohydrodynamic simulations of Joule-heated conductors to the vaporization curve in equations of state

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of electrically exploded aluminum and copper rods demonstrate a technique to validate equations of state (EOS) for rapidly Joule-heated conductors. The balance of internal and magnetic forces at the conductor-insulator interface drives the metal there along the vaporization phase boundary. Variations between critical points and vaporization curves in existing models predict differing densities and temperatures in MHD simulations for these models. Here, the inclusion of Maxwell constructs in the liquid-vapor biphase region of the EOS caused the rod surface to vaporize earlier in time than unmodified tables with van der Waals loops. Velocimetry of recent experiments is used to validate the location of the vaporization curve in existing EOS models and differentiate between the vapor dome treatments. Dielectric coatings applied to the metal surface restricted the conductor’s expansion and diverted the metal into the warm dense matter regime.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tissue scale agent-based simulation of premalignant progressions in Barrett’s esophagus

Barrett’s esophagus (BE) is a benign condition of the distal esophagus that initiates a multistage pathway to esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). Short of frequent intrusive (and costly) surveillance, effective screening for neoplasia in BE populations is yet to be established since progressors are rare and virtually undetectable without routine biopsies, which often sample only a small portion of the BE tissue. As a result, reliable estimation of the true prevalence of dysplasia in a BE population and evidence-based optimization of screening for at-risk individuals is challenging. Data-driven microsimulations, i.e., model-generated instances of disease history in a predefined virtual population, have found utility in the EAC screening literature as low-overhead alternatives to real-world hypothesis testing of optimal interventions for dysplasia. Despite the successes, computational limitations, paucity of knowledge and data on Barrett’s dysplasia, and the complexities of disease progression as a multiscale multiphysics process have hindered the treatment of disease progression in BE as a spatial process. Agent-based modeling of nucleation and proliferation processes in dysplasia warrants exploration in this context as an approximation that operates at a trade-off between computational tractability and precise representation of the composition and physics of the substrate (tissue). In this study, we describe spatially resolved simulations of premalignant progression toward EAC in a coarse-grained model of Barrett’s tissue that resolves the metaplastic tissue at a length scale of 0.42 mm (~3300 crypts/mm 2 ). Finally, the model is calibrated to reproduce historical high-grade dysplasia prevalence when model-generated patients are screened using the Seattle protocol.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Verification of Upcoming MCNP Features For Estimating Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Fixed Source Simulations [Abstract]

Predictive simulation codes, like the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) transport code, are used throughout the nuclear community. These simulations are based on nuclear data. Maximizing the accuracy and precision of nuclear data maximizes the accuracy and precision of the overall simulation. This is imperative to applications that rely on simulations. For example, improving nuclear data for special nuclear material improves simulation accuracy in stockpile stewardship applications, which results in larger safety margins and decreased operational costs. The improvement and validation of nuclear data is completed through integral benchmark experiments. Past benchmarks have primarily been limited to focus on the effective multiplication factor ($\kappa$ eff ); broadening the purview of benchmarks beyond $\kappa$ eff -dependent nuclear data addresses nuclear data deficiencies. Different response types depend on different areas of nuclear data. This dependence is quantified as nuclear data sensitivity: the change in response due to perturbation of a contributing parameter. The larger the nuclear data sensitivity of a response, the more the experiment is influenced by the uncertainties of the nuclear data. The optimization of nuclear data sensitivities in future benchmarks would result in more detailed validation of lesser studied areas of nuclear data. Currently, direct sensitivity capabilities are not easily found for all experiment types and parameters. An MCNP tool to directly estimate the cross section sensitivities of tallied values is under development. Additionally, updates have been made to the perturbation feature of MCNP, which can be used in a less direct approach to estimating sensitivities. This work verifies these features to estimate nuclear data sensitivities in fixed source simulations of a 4.5-kg sphere of alpha- phase weapons-grade plutonium surrounded by differing amounts of copper and polyethylene. Integrated estimates made using MCNP’s tools were found to statistically agree with integrated estimates made from manual perturbation of nuclear data proving the validity of the MCNP tools.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Sensitivity of the Shallow‐To‐Deep Convective Transition to Moisture and Wind Shear in the Amazon

Deep convection is the primary influence on weather and climate in tropical regions. However, understanding and simulating the shallow‐to‐deep (STD) convective transition has long been challenging. Here, we conduct high‐resolution numerical simulations to assess the environmental controls on the evolution of isolated convection in the Amazon during the wet season. The large‐scale forcing derived through a constrained variational analysis approach for the GoAmazon2014/5 Experiment is used in the simulations. Through sensitivity experiments, we examine the relative importance of moisture and wind shear in controlling the shallow‐to‐deep convective transition for isolated convective events. Convection exhibits the greatest sensitivity to humidity within the lowest 1.5 km, where a 4 mm reduction in column water vapor nearly suppresses ice water formation on deep convective days. In contrast, a reduction in column water vapor in the free troposphere by a factor of two or more is necessary to produce a comparable impact on convection. Increasing low‐level wind speed from 6 to 9 m s -1 enhances afternoon deep convection, raising the cloud ice mixing ratio by approximately 25%. Conversely, upper‐level wind shear reveals the weakest correlation with daytime convection in our simulations. Our results help characterize the role of moisture and wind shear on the STD transition and our understanding of the underlying mechanisms.

environmental controls↗

The role of ion and electron-scale turbulence in setting heat and particle transport in the DIII-D ITER baseline scenario

In this work, the heat and particle transport in a DIII-D ITER Baseline Scenario (IBS) discharge has been investigated using both linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations performed with the CGYRO code [J. Candy et al: Journal Comp. Phys. (2016)].These simulations were used to investigate the role that ion-scale ($k_θp_s$ < 1:0) and electron-scale ($k_θp_s$ > 1:0) turbulence play in determining heat and particle transport in the core of conditions believed to directly extrapolate to ITER operation. This investigation spans over nearly half of the plasma minor radius, from ρ = 0:45 - 0:85. To probe the nature of the transport and turbulence in these conditions and to validate the model against experimental fluxes, scans of $a/L_{T_i}$, $a/L_{T_e}$, and $a/L_n$ were performed at all radial locations. Long wavelength turbulence is found to be dominated by ITG modes with strong non-adiabatic electron effects and appears unable to reproduce ion and electron heat fluxes and electron particle fluxes simultaneously at most radial positions when single parameter scans are performed. To investigate the potential role of short wavelength turbulence, a series of electron-scale simulations are performed that indicate that experimentally relevant levels of electron heat flux could arise at sub-ion scales. Quantitative comparison of the simulated fluxes obtained from ion and electron-scale simulations with experimental levels along with the sensitivity of simulations results to changes in inputs is presented. Through extensive sensitivity scans and comparison with multiple transport channels, this work demonstrates a clear need for self-consistent modification of multiple inputs and suggests multi-scale interactions play a significant role at many of the radial locations studied. The results of this analysis help shape our understanding of the model fidelity needed to predict turbulence and transport reactor-relevant conditions and have important implications for the prediction of future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Sensitivity Analysis of a Polyphase Wireless Power Transfer System under Off-Nominal Conditions

Misaligned and/or variable coil airgaps cause coupling coefficient variation in wireless power transfer (WPT) systems, resulting in a decrease in the system’s transmitted power and efficiency. This paper presents sensitivity analyses of a three-phase, Y-Y connected, series-tuned WPT system in the frequency domain in terms of several different electric vehicle wireless charging off-nominal conditions (misalignments in Δ x and Δ y directions, change of airgap Δ z , and the roll Δψ, pitch Δθ, and yaw ΔΦ angles) as specified in Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) J2954 Standard. Coil inductance matrices were obtained by measuring the self- and mutual inductances of the primary and secondary coil phase windings at variable airgap classes (from 5 cm to 30 cm) for five different charging positions as identified in SAE J2954. These 6 × 6 inductance matrices were used in sensitivity and Plexim/PLECS simulation analyses. The sensitivity of the WPT system was analyzed analytically using the input impedance and phase angle, voltage gain, current gain, quality factor, and coupling coefficient parameters of the series-tuned WPT system. The results were confirmed experimentally on a 50 kW WPT system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivities of Large Eddy Simulations of Aerosol Plume Transport and Cloud Response

Abstract Cloud responses to surface‐based sources of aerosol perturbation partially depend on how turbulent transport of the aerosol to cloud base affects the spatial and temporal distribution of aerosol. Here, scenarios of plume injection below a marine stratocumulus cloud are modeled using large eddy simulations coupled to a prognostic bulk aerosol and cloud microphysics scheme. Both passive plumes, consisting of an inert tracer, and active plumes are investigated, where the latter are representative of saltwater droplet plumes such as have been proposed for marine cloud brightening. Passive plume scenarios show higher in‐plume cloud brightness (relative to out‐of‐plume) due to the predominant transport of the passive plume tracer from the near‐surface to the cloud layer within updrafts. These updrafts rise into brighter areas within the cloud deck, even in the absence of an aerosol perturbation associated with an active plume. Comparing albedo at in‐plume to out‐of‐plume locations associates the inert plume with the brightest cloud locations, without any causal effect of the plume on the cloud. Numerical sensitivities are first assessed to establish a suitable model configuration. Then sensitivity to particle injection rate is investigated. Trade‐offs are identified between the number of injected particles and the suppressive effect of droplet evaporation on plume loft and spread. Furthermore, as the near‐field in‐plume brightening effect does not depend significantly on injection rate given a suitable definition of perturbed versus unperturbed regions of the flow, plume area is a key controlling factor on the overall cloud brightening effect of an aerosol perturbation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multifidelity Approach to Sensitivity Estimation in Large-Eddy Simulation

A novel approach to compute affordable approximate sensitivities in a large-eddy simulation (LES) is proposed and assessed. The approach is based on solving a Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) problem that has been linearized around the mean LES solution, with closure modeling required for the linearized changes in turbulent Reynolds stresses. In the present study, the closure modeling is based on a linearized algebraic turbulence model. The method is assessed for the flow over a NACA0012 airfoil at a fixed angle of attack, with the Reynolds number as the variable parameter. The results show that, provided an accurate linearized closure model, the method predicts the correct sensitivity of the skin friction coefficient and the mean velocity field at the cost of a linearized RANS, which provides an important proof-of-concept for this approach. Here, the linearized algebraic turbulence model with standard model coefficients produces a reasonably accurate sensitivity, but the results also suggest that accuracy could be gained from recalibrating the model coefficients for this new use of the model.

42 ENGINEERING↗