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NASA NTRS1989

An analytical sensitivity method for use in integrated aeroservoelastic aircraft design

Interdisciplinary analysis capabilities have been developed for aeroservoelastic aircraft and large flexible spacecraft, but the requisite integrated design methods are only beginning to be developed. One integrated design method which has received attention is based on hierarchal problem decompositions, optimization, and design sensitivity analyses. This paper highlights a design sensitivity analysis method for Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG) optimal control laws, enabling the use of LQG techniques in the hierarchal design methodology. The LQG sensitivity analysis method calculates the change in the optimal control law and resulting controlled system responses due to changes in fixed design integration parameters using analytical sensitivity equations. Numerical results of an LQG design sensitivity analysis for a realistic aeroservoelastic aircraft example are presented. In this example, the sensitivity of the optimal control law and aircraft response for various parameters such as wing bending natural frequency is determined. The sensitivity results computed from the analytical expressions are used to estimate changes in response resulting from changes in the parameters. Comparisons of the estimates with exact calculated responses show they are reasonably accurate for + or - 15 percent changes in the parameters. Evaluation of the analytical expressions is computationally faster than equivalent finite difference calculations.

Gilbert, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Vibration isolation technology: Sensitivity of selected classes of experiments to residual accelerations

The solution was sought of a 2-D axisymmetric moving boundary problem for the sensitivity of isothermal and nonisothermal liquid columns and the sensitivity of thermo-capillary flows to buoyancy driven convection caused by residual accelerations. The sensitivity of a variety of space experiments to residual accelerations are examined. In all the cases discussed, the sensitivity is related to the dynamic response of a fluid. In some cases the sensitivity can be defined by the magnitude of the response of the velocity field. This response may involve motion of the fluid associated with internal density gradients, or the motion of a free liquid surface. For fluids with internal density gradients, the type of acceleration to which the experiment is sensitive will depend on whether buoyancy driven convection must be small in comparison to other types of fluid motion (such as thermocapillary flow), or fluid motion must be suppressed or eliminated (such as in diffusion studies, or directional solidification experiments). The effect of the velocity on the composition and temperature field must be considered, particularly in the vicinity of the melt crystal interface. As far as the response to transient disturbances is concerned the sensitivity is determined by both the magnitude and frequency the acceleration and the characteristic momentum and solute diffusion times.

Alexander, J. Iwan D.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Grid sensitivity for aerodynamic optimization and flow analysis

After reviewing relevant literature, it is apparent that one aspect of aerodynamic sensitivity analysis, namely grid sensitivity, has not been investigated extensively. The grid sensitivity algorithms in most of these studies are based on structural design models. Such models, although sufficient for preliminary or conceptional design, are not acceptable for detailed design analysis. Careless grid sensitivity evaluations, would introduce gradient errors within the sensitivity module, therefore, infecting the overall optimization process. Development of an efficient and reliable grid sensitivity module with special emphasis on aerodynamic applications appear essential. The organization of this study is as follows. The physical and geometric representations of a typical model are derived in chapter 2. The grid generation algorithm and boundary grid distribution are developed in chapter 3. Chapter 4 discusses the theoretical formulation and aerodynamic sensitivity equation. The method of solution is provided in chapter 5. The results are presented and discussed in chapter 6. Finally, some concluding remarks are provided in chapter 7.

Sadrehaghighi, I.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Improved calculation of optimum design sensitivity

Optimum design parameter sensitivity analysis has become an important topic in recent years. The principal reasons for obtaining optimum design sensitivity information with respect to various problem parameters are (l) to predict revised optimum designs, associated with specified perturbations of the problem parameters, without re-optimizing the problem and, (2) to provide sensitivity information in multilevel optimization strategies. Methods for calculating these derivatives were proposed by several authors. The most important drawback in estimating parameter sensitivities by the current methods is that they do not allow for changes in the active constraint set. Changes in the active constraint set produce discontinuities in the optimum design sensitivities, and therefore, a correct formulation has to be cast in terms of directional derivatives. Optimum design parameter sensitivity analysis is addressed in terms of directional derivatives so as to include possible discontinuities and it also presents a method for estimating optimum design sensitivities using finite differences.

Sepulveda, Abdon E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An alternative formulation of the global sensitivity equations

To optimize the performance of any system, the sensitivity derivatives of the system's output variables with respect to its input variables must be readily available. It is also desirable that these derivatives be inexpensive to calculate as the optimization process requires many evaluations of the output variables and their derivatives. Optimization methods that have been developed for use in automated structural design programs may not be extended for use in integrated multidisciplinary design programs until adequate means of calculating accurate sensitivity derivatives of complex, internally coupled systems have been developed. Until the development of the Global Sensitivity Equations (GSE), the only method of determining the sensitivity derivatives of coupled systems has been by using finite differences. Analytical or semi-analytical derivatives do not exist as there is no analytical solution to the coupled problem. Also, difficulties arise because the finite difference method is expensive as the system has to iterate to a converged solution for each incremental input variable. The method may not be accurate, and the choice of the input variable increment may cause the difference in the output variable to be insignificant compared to computer numerical error if the choice is too small, or the process may not predict the true value of the output variable if the increment is too large. The GSE allow the system's sensitivity derivatives to be calculated as functions of the component subsystem's (local) sensitivity derivatives. These local sensitivity derivatives are calculated from specifically decoupled subsystems, whereas the GSE account for total system coupling. Since the subsystems are decoupled, it may be possible for the local derivatives to be calculated by analytical or semi-analytical methods, which generally reduce cost and improve accuracy. Several academic problems have been solved using GSE and have demonstrated encouraging results.

James, Benjamin B.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Application of the pressure sensitive paint technique to steady and unsteady flow

Pressure sensitive paint is a newly-developed optical measurement technique with which one can get a continuous pressure distribution in much shorter time and lower cost than a conventional pressure tap measurement. However, most of the current pressure sensitive paint applications are restricted to steady pressure measurement at high speeds because of the small signal-to-noise ratio at low speed and a slow response to pressure changes. In the present study, three phases of work have been completed to extend the application of the pressure sensitive paint technique to low-speed testing and to investigate the applicability of the paint technique to unsteady flow. First the measurement system using a commercially available PtOEP/GP-197 pressure sensitive paint was established and applied to impinging jet measurements. An in-situ calibration using only five pressure tap data points was applied and the results showed good repeatability and good agreement with conventional pressure tap measurements on the whole painted area. The overall measurement accuracy in these experiments was found to be within 0.1 psi. The pressure sensitive paint technique was then applied to low-speed wind tunnel tests using a 60 deg delta wing model with leading edge blowing slots. The technical problems encountered in low-speed testing were resolved by using a high grade CCD camera and applying corrections to improve the measurement accuracy. Even at 35 m/s, the paint data not only agreed well with conventional pressure tap measurements but also clearly showed the suction region generated by the leading edge vortices. The vortex breakdown was also detected at alpha=30 deg. It was found that a pressure difference of 0.2 psi was required for a quantitative pressure measurement in this experiment and that temperature control or a parallel temperature measurement is necessary if thermal uniformity does not hold on the model. Finally, the pressure sensitive paint was applied to a periodically changing pressure field with a 12.8s time period. A simple first-order pole model was applied to deal with the phase lag of the paint. The unsteady pressure estimated from the time-changing pressure sensitive paint data agreed well with the pressure transducer data in regions of higher pressure and showed the possibility of extending the technique to unsteady pressure measurements. However, the model still needs further refinement based on the physics of the oxygen diffusion into the paint layer and the oxygen quenching on the paint luminescence.

Shimbo, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Sensitivity of wheat and rice to low levels of atmospheric ethylene

Ethylene (C2H4) gas is produced throughout the life cycle of plants and can accumulate in closed growth chambers to levels 100 times higher than in outside environments. Elevated atmospheric C2H4 can cause a variety of abnormal responses, but the sensitivity to elevated C2H4 is not well characterized. We evaluated the C2H4 sensitivity of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and rice (Oryza sativa L.) in five studies. The first three studies compared the effects of continuous C2H4 levels ranging from 0 to 1000 nmol mol-1 (ppb) in a growth chamber throughout the life cycle of the plants. A short-term 1000 nmol mol-1 treatment was included in which exposure was stopped at anthesis. Yield was reduced by 36% in wheat and 63% in rice at 50 nmol mol-1 and both species were virtually sterile when continuously exposed to 1000 nmol mol-1. However, the yield reductions were much less with exposure that stopped at anthesis, suggesting the detrimental effect of C2H4 on yield was greatest around the time of seed set. Two additional studies evaluated the differential sensitivity of two wheat cultivars (Super Dwarf and USU-Apogee) to 50 nmol mol-1 C2H4 at three CO2 levels [350, 1200, 5000 micromoles mol-1 (ppm)] in a greenhouse. Yield of USU-Apogee was not significantly reduced by C2H4 but the yield of Super Dwarf was reduced by 60%. Elevated CO2 did not influence the sensitivity to C2H4. A difference in the C2H4 sensitivity of USU-Apogee between greenhouse and growth chamber trials suggests that C2H4 sensitivity is dependent on the environment. Collectively, the data suggest that relatively low levels of C2H4 could induce anomalous plant responses by accumulation in greenhouses and growth chambers with inadequate ventilation. The data also suggest that C2H4 sensitivity can be reduced by both genetic and environmental manipulations. 2002 Crop Science Society of America.

NASA Discipline Life Sciences Technologies↗

NASA NTRS2006

Precision of Sensitivity in the Design Optimization of Indeterminate Structures

Design sensitivity is central to most optimization methods. The analytical sensitivity expression for an indeterminate structural design optimization problem can be factored into a simple determinate term and a complicated indeterminate component. Sensitivity can be approximated by retaining only the determinate term and setting the indeterminate factor to zero. The optimum solution is reached with the approximate sensitivity. The central processing unit (CPU) time to solution is substantially reduced. The benefit that accrues from using the approximate sensitivity is quantified by solving a set of problems in a controlled environment. Each problem is solved twice: first using the closed-form sensitivity expression, then using the approximation. The problem solutions use the CometBoards testbed as the optimization tool with the integrated force method as the analyzer. The modification that may be required, to use the stiffener method as the analysis tool in optimization, is discussed. The design optimization problem of an indeterminate structure contains many dependent constraints because of the implicit relationship between stresses, as well as the relationship between the stresses and displacements. The design optimization process can become problematic because the implicit relationship reduces the rank of the sensitivity matrix. The proposed approximation restores the full rank and enhances the robustness of the design optimization method.

Patnaik, Surya N.↗

NASA NTRS2009

High-Sensitivity GaN Microchemical Sensors

Systematic studies have been performed on the sensitivity of GaN HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) sensors using various gate electrode designs and operational parameters. The results here show that a higher sensitivity can be achieved with a larger W/L ratio (W = gate width, L = gate length) at a given D (D = source-drain distance), and multi-finger gate electrodes offer a higher sensitivity than a one-finger gate electrode. In terms of operating conditions, sensor sensitivity is strongly dependent on transconductance of the sensor. The highest sensitivity can be achieved at the gate voltage where the slope of the transconductance curve is the largest. This work provides critical information about how the gate electrode of a GaN HEMT, which has been identified as the most sensitive among GaN microsensors, needs to be designed, and what operation parameters should be used for high sensitivity detection.

Son, Kyung-ah↗

NASA NTRS2015

Investigating Sensitivity to Saharan Dust in Tropical Cyclone Formation Using Nasa's Adjoint Model

As tropical cyclones develop from easterly waves coming of the coast of Africa they interact with dust from the Sahara desert. There is a long standing debate over whether this dust inhibits or advances the developing storm and how much influence it has. Dust can surround the storm and absorb incoming solar radiation, cooling the air below. As a result an energy source for the system is potentially diminished, inhibiting growth of the storm. Alternatively dust may interact with clouds through micro-physical processes, for example by causing more moisture to condense, potentially increasing the strength. As a result of climate change, concentrations and amount of dust in the atmosphere will likely change. It it is important to properly understand its effect on tropical storm formation. The adjoint of an atmospheric general circulation model provides a very powerful tool for investigating sensitivity to initial conditions. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has recently developed an adjoint version of the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) dynamical core, convection scheme, cloud model and radiation schemes. This is extended so that the interaction between dust and radiation is also accounted for in the adjoint model. This provides a framework for examining the sensitivity to dust in the initial conditions. Specifically the set up allows for an investigation into the extent to which dust affects cyclone strength through absorption of radiation. In this work we investigate the validity of using an adjoint model for examining sensitivity to dust in hurricane formation. We present sensitivity results for a number of systems that developed during the Atlantic hurricane season of 2006. During this period there was a significant outbreak of Saharan dust and it is has been argued that this outbreak was responsible for the relatively calm season. This period was also covered by an extensive observation campaign. It is shown that the adjoint can provide insight into the sensitivity and reveals a relatively low sensitivity to dust compared to, for example, the thermodynamic variables. However a secondary sensitivity though moisture is seen. If dust dries the air it can significantly reduce the cyclone intensity through the moisture.

Tropical Cyclones↗

NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation to Changes in Water Vapor at Two High Elevation Sites

Among the potential reasons for enhanced warming rates in many high elevation regions is the nonlinear relationship between surface downward longwave radiation (DLR) and specific humidity (q). In this study we use ground-based observations at two neighboring high elevation sites in Southwestern Colorado that have different local topography and are 1.3 kilometers apart horizontally and 348 meters vertically. We examine the spatial consistency of the sensitivities (partial derivatives) of DLR with respect to changes in q, and the sensitivities are obtained from the Jacobian matrix of a neural network analysis. Although the relationship between DLR and q is the same at both sites, the sensitivities are higher when q is smaller, which occurs more frequently at the higher elevation site. There is a distinct hourly distribution in the sensitivities at both sites especially for high sensitivity cases, although the range is greater at the lower elevation site. The hourly distribution of the sensitivities relates to that of q. Under clear skies during daytime, q is similar between the two sites, however under cloudy skies or at night, it is not. This means that the DLR-q sensitivities are similar at the two sites during daytime but not at night, and care must be exercised when using data from one site to infer the impact of water vapor feedbacks at another site, particularly at night. Our analysis suggests that care should be exercised when using the lapse rate adjustment to infill high frequency data in a complex topographical region, particularly when one of the stations is subject to cold air pooling as found here.

elevation↗

NASA NTRS2020

POEMMA’s Target-of-Opportunity Sensitivity to Cosmic Neutrino Transient Sources

We investigate the capability of the Probe Of Extreme Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (POEMMA)in performing Target-of-Opportunity (ToO) neutrino observations. POEMMA is a proposed space-based probe-class mission for ultra high-energy cosmic ray and very-high-energy neutrino detection using two spacecraft, each equipped with a large Schmidt telescope to detect optical and near-ultraviolet signals generated by extensive air showers (EASs). POEMMA will be sensitive to Cherenkov radiation from upward-moving EASs initiated by tau neutrinos interacting in the Earth. POEMMA will be able to quickly re-point (90◦in 500 s) each of the two spacecraft to the direction of an astrophysical source, which in combination with its orbital speed will provide it with unparalleled capability to follow up transient alerts. We calculate POEMMA’s transient sensitivity for two observational configurations for the satellites (ToO-stereo and ToO-dual for smaller and larger satellite separations, respectively) and investigate the impact of variations arising due to POEMMA’s orbital characteristics on its sensitivity to tau neutrinos in various regions of the sky. We explore separate scenarios for long (∼105−6s) and short (∼103s) duration events, accounting for intrusion from the Sun and the Moon in the long-duration scenario. We compare the sensitivity and sky coverage of POEMMA for ToO observations with those for existing experiments (e.g., IceCube, ANTARES, and the Pierre Auger Observatory) and other proposed future experiments (e.g., GRAND200k).For long bursts, we find that POEMMA will provide a factor of&7 improvement in average neutrino sensitivity above 300 PeV with respect to existing experiments, reaching the level of model predictions for neutrino fluences at these energies and above from several types of long-duration astrophysical transients (e.g., binary neutron star mergers and tidal disruption events). For short bursts, POEMMA will improve the sensitivity over existing experiments by at least an order of magnitude forEν∼>100 PeV in the “best-case” scenario. POEMMA’s orbital characteristics and rapid re-pointing capability will provide it access to the full celestial sky, including regions that will not be accessible to ground-based neutrino experiments. Finally, we discuss the prospects for POEMMA to detect neutrinos from candidate astrophysical neutrino sources in the nearby universe. Our results demonstrate that with its improved neutrino sensitivity at ultra-high energies and unique full-sky coverage, POEMMA will be an essential, complementary component in a rapidly expanding multi-messenger network.

Tonia M Venters↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vicarious Calibration of the Long Near Infrared Band: Cross-Sensor Differences in Sensitivity

Numerous assumptions and approximations are employed when translating satellite-derived radiance to surface remote sensing reflectance (RRS) for ocean color applications. Among these is the vicarious calibration coefficient (g) of the “long” near infrared band (NIRL) used for atmospheric correction. For this band, the prelaunch calibration has always been deemed sufficient [thus g(NIRL) = 1.00] as long as other bands are vicariously calibrated. Recent research, however, suggests that Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua RRS time series is quite sensitive to g(NIRL) (and associated vicarious gains in other bands). In this work, we assessed the sensitivity of Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (VIIRS/SNPP) RRS to NIRL calibration and compared our results to previous MODIS/Aqua and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor onboard OrbView2 (SeaWiFS)/OrbView2 analysis. In doing so, we note that g(NIRL) sensitivities of mission-averaged RRS time series are lower for VIIRS and Sea-WiFS, relative to MODIS. At the scale of monthly climatologies (MCs), however, all sensors show prominent g(NIRL) sensitivity with that of SeaWiFS being the most substantial. These findings informed simulation analyses, whereby we identified signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) and radiant path geometry, as well as their interaction, as having notable impacts on g(NIRL) sensitivity. As such, g(NIRL) sensitivity is a necessary consideration for reflectance uncertainty budgets, especially for sensors with higher NIR SNR or particular prevailing radiant path geometries. Given the geometry components embedded within g(NIRL) sensitivity, such studies should be coupled with cross-sensor intercalibrations [e.g., using simultaneous same view (SSV) measurements] toward minimizing NIRL errors between satellite instruments, but such efforts will not completely remediate remaining cross-sensor biases in RRS. Index Terms—Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Aqua, ocean color, ocean gyres, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor onboard OrbView2 (SeaWiFS), system vicarious calibration (SVC), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite onboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite (VIIRS/SNPP).

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2022

Vicarious Calibration of the Long Near Infrared Band: Cross-Sensor Differences in Sensitivity

Numerous assumptions and approximations are employed when translating satellite-derived radiance to surface remote sensing reflectance (RRS) for ocean color applications. Among these is the vicarious calibration coefficient (g) of the ‘long’ near infrared band (NIRL) used for atmospheric correction. For this band, the pre-launch calibration has always been deemed sufficient [thus g(NIRL) = 1.00] as long as other bands are vicariously calibrated. Recent research, however, suggests that MODIS/Aqua RRS time series are quite sensitive to g(NIRL) (and associated vicarious gains in other bands). In this work, we assessed the sensitivity of VIIRS/SNPP RRS to NIRL calibration, and compared our results to previous MODIS/Aqua and SeaWiFS/OrbView2 analysis. In doing so, we note g(NIRL) sensitivities of mission-averaged RRS timeseries are lower for VIIRS and SeaWiFS, relative to MODIS. At the scale of monthly climatologies, however, all sensors show prominent g(NIRL) sensitivity, with that of SeaWiFS being the most substantial. These findings informed simulation analyses, whereby we identified signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and radiant path geometry, as well as their interaction, as having notable impacts on g(NIRL) sensitivity. As such, g(NIRL) sensitivity is a necessary consideration for reflectance uncertainty budgets, especially for sensors with higher NIR SNR or particular prevailing radiant path geometries. Given the geometry components embedded within g(NIRL) sensitivity, such studies should be coupled with cross-sensor intercalibrations (e.g., using simultaneous same view measurements) toward minimizing NIRL errors between satellite instruments, but such efforts will not completely remediate remaining cross-sensor biases in RRS.

Brian B Barnes↗

NASA NTRS2014

Inhomogeneous Forcing and Transient Climate Sensitivity

Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

sensitivity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Analysis of the Human Research Program’s Impact 1.0 Model

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Leave One Out (LOO) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on non-linear simulation models like the IMPACT Model. The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The “partial” part is due to the adjustments made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. LOO removes a medical condition from test suite and calculates the change in the outcome. This is used to identify the influence of the condition input in the model The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number of occurrences of each of the one hundred plus IMPACT medical conditions generated over the simulations, and the IMPACT outputs from the MEDPRAT mathematical model. The outputs total task time lost (TTL), number of return to definitive care (RTDC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMPACT team will report the results of using PRCC and LOO on IMPACT 1.0. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty, and input values could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMPACT 1.0.

Sensitivity Anaylsis↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗