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Results for “Self Organizing Map”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the shape of photometric redshift distributions with clustering cross-correlations

We present an optimization method for the assignment of photometric galaxies to a chosen set of redshift bins. This is achieved by combining simulated annealing, an optimization algorithm inspired by solid-state physics, with an unsupervised machine learning method, a self-organizing map (SOM) of the observed colours of galaxies. Starting with a sample of galaxies that is divided into redshift bins based on a photometric redshift point estimate, the simulated annealing algorithm repeatedly reassigns SOM-selected subsamples of galaxies, which are close in colour, to alternative redshift bins. We optimize the clustering cross-correlation signal between photometric galaxies and a reference sample of galaxies with well-calibrated redshifts. Depending on the effect on the clustering signal, the reassignment is either accepted or rejected. By dynamically increasing the resolution of the SOM, the algorithm eventually converges to a solution that minimizes the number of mismatched galaxies in each tomographic redshift bin and thus improves the compactness of their corresponding redshift distribution. This method is demonstrated on the synthetic Legacy Survey of Space and Time cosmoDC2 catalogue. We find a significant decrease in the fraction of catastrophic outliers in the redshift distribution in all tomographic bins, most notably in the highest redshift bin with a decrease in the outlier fraction from 57 percent to 16 percent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: redshift calibration of the MagLim lens sample from the combination of SOMPZ and clustering and its impact on cosmology

ABSTRACT We present an alternative calibration of the MagLim lens sample redshift distributions from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first 3 yr of data (Y3). The new calibration is based on a combination of a self-organizing-map-based scheme and clustering redshifts to estimate redshift distributions and inherent uncertainties, which is expected to be more accurate than the original DES Y3 redshift calibration of the lens sample. We describe in detail the methodology, and validate it on simulations and discuss the main effects dominating our error budget. The new calibration is in fair agreement with the fiducial DES Y3 n(z) calibration, with only mild differences (<3σ) in the means and widths of the distributions. We study the impact of this new calibration on cosmological constraints, analysing DES Y3 galaxy clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements, assuming a Lambda cold dark matter cosmology. We obtain Ωm = 0.30 ± 0.04, σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.07, and S8 = 0.81 ± 0.04, which implies a ∼0.4σ shift in the Ω − S8 plane compared to the fiducial DES Y3 results, highlighting the importance of the redshift calibration of the lens sample in multiprobe cosmological analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DESI complete calibration of the colour–redshift relation (DC3R2): results from early DESI data

We present initial results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) complete calibration of the colour–redshift relation (DC3R2) secondary target survey. Our analysis uses 230 k galaxies that overlap with KiDS-VIKING ugriZYJHK s photometry to calibrate the colour–redshift relation and to inform photometric redshift (photo-z) inference methods of future weak lensing surveys. Together with emission line galaxies (ELGs), luminous red galaxies (LRGs), and the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) that provide samples of complementary colour, the DC3R2 targets help DESI to span 56 percent of the colour space visible to Euclid and LSST with high confidence spectroscopic redshifts. The effects of spectroscopic completeness and quality are explored, as well as systematic uncertainties introduced with the use of common Self-Organizing Maps trained on different photometry than the analysis sample. We further examine the dependence of redshift on magnitude at fixed colour, important for the use of bright galaxy spectra to calibrate redshifts in a fainter photometric galaxy sample. We find that noise in the KiDS-VIKING photometry introduces a dominant, apparent magnitude dependence of redshift at fixed colour, which indicates a need for carefully chosen deep drilling fields, and survey simulation to model this effect for future weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Chromatic effects on the PSF and shear measurement for the Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Wide Area Survey

Weak gravitational lensing (WL) is a key cosmological probe that requires precise measurement of galaxy images to infer shape distortions, or shear, and constrain cosmology. Accurate estimation of the point spread function (PSF) is crucial for shear measurement, but the wavelength dependence of the PSF introduces chromatic biases that can systematically impact shear inference. We focus on biases arising from spectral energy distribution (SED) differences between stars, used for PSF modelling, and galaxies, used for shear measurement. We investigate these effects in Roman’s four design reference mission WL bands (Y106, J129, H158, F184) and wide filter (W146). Using Roman-like image simulations, we quantify the induced shear biases and compare them to requirements on those biases. Multiplicative biases over all galaxies hover around ~0.2 per cent in the WL bands and 2 per cent in the wide filter, exceeding the mission requirement of |m| < 0.032 per cent and relaxed requirement of |m| < 0.1 per cent⁠. In individual redshift bins, biases can reach 0.4–0.9 per cent for the WL bands and 3–6 per cent for the wide filter. Additive biases remain acceptable in the WL bands but exceed systematic limits in the wide filter. We develop and test PSF-level corrections, showing that a first-order correction reduces biases within survey requirements for the WL bands; however, higher-order terms are necessary for the wide filter. Our results highlight the necessity of chromatic corrections for precision WL with Roman and provide a framework for mitigating these biases. Finally, we compare analytical colour-based corrections to self-organizing maps and find that both methods effectively reduce biases.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Redshift calibration of the MagLim++ lens sample

In this work, we derive and calibrate the redshift distribution of the MagLim++ lens galaxy sample used in the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) 3 x 2pt cosmology analysis. The 3 x 2pt analysis combines galaxy clustering from the lens galaxy sample and weak gravitational lensing. The redshift distributions are inferred using the SOMPZ method - a Self-Organizing Map framework that combines deep-field multi-band photometry, wide-field data, and a synthetic source injection ( B alrog) catalog. Key improvements over the DES Year 3 (Y3) calibration include a noise-weighted SOM metric, an expanded Balrog catalogue, and an improved scheme for propagating systematic uncertainties, which allows us to generate O(10 8 ) redshift realizations that collectively span the dominant sources of uncertainty. These realizations are then combined with independent clustering-redshift measurements via importance sampling. The resulting calibration achieves typical uncertainties on the mean redshift of 1-2%, corresponding to a 20-30% average reduction relative to DES Y3. We compress the n(z) uncertainties into a small number of orthogonal modes for use in cosmological inference. Marginalizing over these modes leads to only a minor degradation in cosmological constraints. Here, this analysis establishes the MagLim++ sample as a robust lens sample for precision cosmology with DES Y6 and provides a scalable framework for future surveys.

dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of a High Pressure Turbine Blade and Sector-Based Annular Rig Design for Supercritical CO2 Power Cycle Representative Testing

Abstract As part of the ongoing research into the design of hardware for zero emission cycles, a first-stage high-pressure turbine (HPT) blade is optimized for a 300 MWe supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycle using the surrogate-assisted genetic algorithm optimizer in Numeca FINE/Design three-dimensional with objectives of increasing efficiency and decreasing heat load to the blade. Supercritical CO2 property tables are constructed from NIST REFPROP data for the condensable gas simulation in FINE/Turbo. A detailed mesh sensitivity study is performed for a baseline design to identify the proper-grid refinement and efficiently allocate resources for the optimization. Seventy design variables are selected for the initial population generation. Self-organizing maps are then used to focus the design variables on the most important ones affecting the objective functions. The optimization results in approximately 3000 three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes simulations of different blade shapes with increases in efficiency of up to 0.85% and decreases in heat load of 14%. Families of blade shapes are identified for experimental testing in an annular rig at the Purdue Experimental Turbine Aerothermal Laboratory. A design to adapt the annular cascade for testing optimized geometries is introduced, which features eccentric radius sectors allowing for scaled-up geometries of sCO2 optimized blade profiles to be tested at design cycle representative conditions at high Reynolds numbers in dry air. Analysis into the effects of Reynolds number, working fluid, and geometric relations are presented to prove the efficacy of the test method.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deciphering the molecular components of the quorum sensing system in the fungus Ophiostoma piceae

Quorum sensing (QS) is a complex cell-cell communication mechanism that coordinates population-level behaviors in microbes. In eukaryotes, this phenomenon has been extensively described in the dimorphic yeast Candida albicans as its main QS molecule, the sesquiterpene alcohol farnesol, is responsible for various phenotypic (i.e., inhibition of yeast-to-hyphae transition, biofilm formation, and, hence, pathogenesis) and metabolic (i.e., induction of oxidative stress and apoptosis) changes. Ophiostoma piceae CECT 20416 is a dimorphic saprotrophic ascomycete with biotechnological interest that also produces farnesol as QS molecule, but in this case, the alcohol promotes the morphological transition to the mycelial form, biofilm formation, enzyme secretion, and melanin production. Here, we characterized the physiological response of Ophiostoma piceae to farnesol, the molecular components of the QS system of this fungus have been investigated using a “multiomics” approach that involved genomic, transcriptomic, and proteomic analyses. Some genes identified in this work are proposed as key factors in farnesol transport and signaling. We have also cataloged the genes undergoing major transcriptional changes triggered by the presence of the autoinducer, such as cell-wall remodeling, reactive oxygen species (ROS) protection, and melanin biosynthesis, using self-organizing maps. This analysis could be useful for applications in the forestry industry, for enzymes production, and for the valorization of residues. Furthermore, it might as well help to investigate the QS mechanisms of clinically relevant fungi phylogenetically related to Ophiostoma.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observed Temperature and Moisture Advection Characteristics in the Southern Great Plains

Until recently, advection profiles in the planetary boundary layer have been difficult to quantify from observations. As a result, not much is known about its basic characteristics, like magnitude and diurnal cycles, or how these differ as a function of large-scale environments. Here, to provide insight into advective characteristics, a Green’s Theorem–based method for calculating profiles of advection in the lowest 3 km from an array of ground-based thermodynamic and kinematic profiling instruments has been applied to 2 years of observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observing site. Since advection largely depends on synoptic-scale forcing, a self-organizing map (SOM) was used to classify days based on mean sea level pressure analyses; from that, the diurnal evolution of vertical profiles of advection for different synoptic environments was quantified. The overall mean magnitude of the potential temperature advection is approximately ±3 K h −1 , while the moisture advection is approximately ±1.5 g kg −1 h −1 , with substantial variability in the sign and magnitude of the advective tendencies at different heights and throughout the diurnal cycle. Advection magnitude is strongly connected to the strength of synoptic-scale forcing, which varies depending on the time of year. Variability in advection is larger for potential temperature than it is for moisture, and strongly forced environments, like midlatitude cyclones, feature greater variability in the advection magnitude than weakly forced or quiescent environments.

advection↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal and Geographical Variations in Fundamental Weather Patterns during Extreme Precipitation as Identified from Omega Equation Forcing

Abstract We investigate the large-scale weather patterns during extreme precipitation (PEx) events over the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a version of the quasigeostrophic (QG) omega equation. This work aims to develop a climatology of the weather patterns most related to PEx events during current climate. Extreme events are examined for each of seven regions defined by consistent annual cycles of precipitation and spanning the CONUS. For the CONUS we train several self-organizing maps (SOM) on a pressure–time series of vertical velocity from each of the advective forcing terms in the QG omega equation for each extreme event. The unsupervised learning of the SOM allows us to identify the most descriptive set of nine patterns in vertical velocity associated with precipitation extremes. This method finds multiple frontal- and cyclone-driven patterns while grouping primarily convective events into one pattern. Frontal events include a synoptic pattern consistent with West Coast atmospheric river events as well as pattern groups linked to developing and to mature (“occluded”) frontal cyclones. The primary patterns found during PEx events vary seasonally and geographically. Frontal cyclone patterns are most common during PEx events during summer in the part of the Great Plains and during winter for the Northeast, Southeast, Pacific Northwest, and Southwest. Convection is the most common pattern during summer in all regions. Except in the Southeast, the annual cycles of monthly number of PEx events and average precipitation match well, partially validating our choice of regions to aggregate PEx events.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clusters of Regional Precipitation Seasonality Change in the Community Earth System Model, Version 2

Abstract The likely changes to precipitation seasonality with warming are both impactful and not well understood. This work aims to describe areas that experience similar changes to seasonal precipitation irrespective of the original underlying precipitation seasonality. We train a self-organizing map on the difference between the seasonal cycle of precipitation in the past and in a high-warming future climate as represented by the Community Earth System Model, version 2, to create regions with similar changes in precipitation seasonality. This method is applied separately over land and ocean surfaces because of the differing processes leading to precipitation over each. This method indicates that future changes in seasonal precipitation are most varied in the tropics because of a southward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. The seasonal shifts found over midlatitude oceans indicate a poleward shift in atmospheric river activity. We find a correspondence between certain land-based precipitation changes and Köppen climate classification. The seasonality of large-scale and convective precipitation is examined for each region. The relationship between the seasonal changes to precipitation and associated atmospheric processes is discussed. These processes include atmospheric rivers, the intertropical convergence zone, tropical cyclones, and monsoons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Gamma Background Radiation Digital Twin with Machine Learning Algorithms: Application of Unsupervised Machine Learning to Detection of Anomalies and Nuisances in Gamma Background Radiation Environmental Screening Data

Environmental screening of gamma radiation consists of detecting weak nuisance and anomaly signal in the presence of strong and highly varying background. In a typical scenario, a mobile detector-spectrometer continuously measures gamma radiation spectra in short, e.g., one-second, signal acquisition intervals. The measurement data is a 2D matrix, where one dimension is gamma ray energy, and the other dimension is the number of measurements or total time. In principle, gamma radiation sources can be detected and identified from the measured data by their unique spectral lines. Detecting sources from data measured in a search scenario is difficult due to the highly varying background because of naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM), and low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of spectral signal measured during one-second acquisition intervals. The objective of this work is to explore unsupervised machine learning (ML) algorithms for development of a digital twin of gamma radiation background, and for detection and identification of weak nuisances and anomalies events in the presence of highly fluctuating background. In one segment of work, we developed a gamma background estimation model using a Longshort term memory (LSTM) network for one-step CPS time series prediction. The LSTM model was validated with two data sets of measurements from two independent NaI detectors positioned on a mobile platform. The data sets contained background radiation only and no orphan isotope sources. The LSTM model was constructed and tested using data from one of the detectors. Performance of the LSTM model was validate through one-step prediction of CPS time series of another NaI detector without re-training. This approach allows to create a digital twin for nuclear background estimation. Using LSTM, it could be possible to detect a source through subtraction of the estimated counts from the measured background. In another segment of work, we investigated detection of gamma emitting sources in the presence of complex background using unsupervised machine learning. Spectral lines of isotopes are difficult to observe in one-second measurements. Averaging over the entire measurement campaign data set reveals spectral lines of most common background isotopes. Spectral lines of orphan sources, which might appear only in a few measurements during the campaign, will be washed out if averaging is performed over the entire measurement data set. The approach we have explored consists of extracting one-second measurements containing weak spectral features through data clustering. Averaging one-second spectra in a cluster should reveal the presence of anomaly sources. We created two ML models using K-means clustering and Neural Network Self-organizing Map (SOM). Performance of these ML models was benchmarked using search data. One data set contained 137 Cs source, and another dataset contained 131 I source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Mining for Faster, Interpretable Solutions to Inverse Problems:A Case Study Using Additive Manufacturing

Solving inverse problems, where we nd the input values that result in desired values of outputs, can be challenging. The solution process is often computationally expensive and it can be di cult to interpret the solution in high-dimensional input spaces. In this paper, we use a problem from additive manufacturing to address these two issues with the intent of making it easier to solve inverse problems and exploit their results. First, focusing on Gaussian process surrogates that are used to solve inverse problems, we describe how a simple modi cation to the idea of tapering can substantially speed up the surrogate without losing accuracy in prediction. Second, we demonstrate that Kohonen self-organizing maps can be used to visualize and interpret the solution to the inverse problem in the high-dimensional input space. For our data set, as not all input dimensions are equally important, we show that using weighted distances results in a better organized map that makes the relationships among the inputs obvious

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Regime Characterization of Offshore Wind Resource Using Unsupervised Learning

Predictability of wind resource conditions is critical for offshore wind design and operations. While many studies of extreme wind conditions focus on specific events such as low-level jets or ramps, these rely on threshold definitions that limit generality. Here we present a data-driven framework that combines principal component analysis (PCA), self-organizing maps (SOM), and k-means clustering to classify wind resource conditions as typical and anomalous from climatological data. Anomalies are defined not by fixed thresholds but by flagging samples located far from SOM node centers inside the baseline SOM structure. This reframes extremes as rare ebents and hence, likely difficult to anticipate by numerical weather prediction models. We applied this approach to 23 years (2000–2022) of hourly profiles from the NOW-23 hindcast model at the Humboldt Wind Energy Area. Classification is conducted on a feature space consisting of 10 m wind speed and direction, bulk shear and veer across 30–270 m, and a low-level jet index. Dimensionality reduction is achieved through PC. A 2 × 3 OM lattice trained on the PCA vectors identified six baseline regimes spanning weak to strong flow states. High quantization-error profiles are identified and re-clustered into four anomalous regimes. The baseline regimes exhibited clear seasonal and diurnal cycles. Meanwhile, the anomalous regimes represented <10 % of all hours but showed distinct combinations of speed, shear, and veer, when compared to the baseline regimes. Anomalous regimes are typically short-lived (~few hours), yet their transitions can lead to hub-height wind changes of −18 to +9 m s -1 . For a representative 15 MW turbine, these shifts imply rapid swings in capacity factor from near-full output to negligible generation. Validation with lidar buoy data showed 51% agreement in SOM labels across ~6,000 overlapping hours, with most mismatches confined to adjacent speed classes. HRRR comparisons further revealed that anomalous regimes were disproportionately associated with forecast biases exceeding 5 m s -1 . Together, these results reframe extremes in offshore wind from absolute maxima or minima to weather states that are difficult to anticipate from models.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward Drilling the Perfect Geothermal Well: An International Research Coordination Network for Geothermal Drilling Optimization Supported by Deep Machine Learning and Cloud Based Data Aggregation

The EDGE project, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office under award DE-EE0008793, established a data-driven framework for improving the efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and reliability of geothermal well drilling. The project focused on developing scalable data infrastructure, advanced machine learning and probabilistic models, and integrated analytics tools to support continuous drilling optimization. A central objective was to reduce geothermal drilling costs by up to seventy percent while minimizing the risk of well failure through predictive diagnostics and adaptive planning. Over the project period, a comprehensive data repository was designed and deployed, incorporating records from over one hundred geothermal wells across varied geological settings. This repository supported both structured and unstructured data and adhered to FAIR data principles, enabling provenance tracking, quality control, and standardized metadata. The project introduced automated ingestion pipelines and a cloud-hosted platform that facilitated access to raw, processed, and derived datasets. This infrastructure served as the foundation for model development and analysis. Machine learning workflows were developed to predict key drilling metrics including rate of penetration, non-productive time, and total drilling costs. Self-organizing maps and dimensionality reduction methods were used to uncover operational patterns and outliers, while supervised learning algorithms such as random forests and deep neural networks were applied to forecast performance outcomes. The models were validated on heterogeneous datasets from both U.S. and Icelandic fields, demonstrating variable but significant predictive accuracy. The results indicated that finer temporal resolution, inclusion of lithological data, and consistency in operational annotations could substantially improve model performance. The project also implemented process mining techniques to reconstruct state-transition models from drilling event logs. These models enabled the identification of deviations from optimal workflows and provided insights into recurring failure modes. Analysis of non-productive time highlighted the impact of equipment failures, geological challenges, and human factors, offering opportunities for targeted mitigation strategies. The EDGE Dashboard was developed as a web-based expert system integrating data visualization, model outputs, and user-driven queries. It provided an accessible interface for operators to explore historical data, evaluate predicted outcomes, and compare drilling scenarios. Initial feedback from project partners suggested that the dashboard could serve as a foundation for more advanced advisory and optimization tools. Overall, the EDGE project demonstrated the feasibility and value of applying modern data science techniques to geothermal drilling. It delivered a set of interoperable tools and models that can support more efficient, lower-risk well development. The findings point toward a viable path for transitioning from advisory analytics to semi-autonomous drilling systems, contingent on continued collaboration, expanded datasets, and field validation. The project results have immediate relevance for drilling operations, data management practices, and future geothermal R&D efforts aimed at achieving reliable, cost-competitive geothermal energy at scale.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulated wind speed and initial conditions over the WFIP2 region: Cold-front (D01)

The purpose of this work is to assess the sensitivity of the forecast for turbine height wind speed to initial condition (IC) uncertainties over the Columbia River Gorge and Columbia River Basin for two typical weather phenomena: a local thermal gradient induced by a marine air intrusion and passage of a cold front. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model data assimilation system (WRFDA) was used to generate ensemble ICs from the North American Regional Analysis (NARR) for the WRF model initialization. The simulated turbine-height wind speeds were categorized into four types using the self-organizing map (SOM) technique. This work advances understanding of IC uncertainties impacts on wind speed forecasts and locates the high-impact regions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗