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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Classification of Meteorological Influences Surrounding Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States using the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

Extreme precipitation events can have a large impact on society through flooding that can result in property destruction, crop losses, economic losses, the spread of water-borne diseases, and fatalities. Observations indicate there has been a statistically significant increase in extreme precipitation events over the past 15 years in the Northeastern United States and other localized regions of the country have become crippled with record flooding events, for example, the flooding that occurred in the Southeast United States associated with Hurricane Matthew in October 2016. Extreme precipitation events in the United States can be caused by various meteorological influences such as extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complexes, general air mass thunderstorms, upslope flow, fronts, and the North American Monsoon. Reanalyses, such as the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), have become a pivotal tool to study the meteorology surrounding extreme precipitation events. Using days classified as an extreme precipitation events based on a combination of observational gauge and radar data, two techniques for the classification of these events are used to gather additional information that can be used to determine how events have changed over time using atmospheric data from MERRA-2. The first is self organizing maps, which is an artificial neural network that uses unsupervised learning to cluster like patterns and the second is an automated detection technique that searches for characteristics in the atmosphere that define a meteorological phenomena. For example, the automated detection for tropical cycles searches for a defined area of suppressed sea level pressure, alongside thickness anomalies aloft, indicating the presence of a warm core. These techniques are employed for extreme precipitation events in preselected regions that were chosen based an analysis of the climatology of precipitation.

Monsoon↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detection of CH 4 Hotspots from NASA’s GEOS Composition Analysis System

Recent research indicates that 8 to 12% of the global oil and gas production methane emissions could be attributed to ultra-emitters, which result in high concentration ‘hotspots’ near point sources. Identifying these emissions in near real time provides useful information to the policy makers and private industry, who are working to reduce their impact. To meet this need, scientists are increasingly analyzing satellite data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) instrument aboard ESA’s Sentinel 5-Precursor mission. While direct analysis of TROPOMI level 2 swath data has been successful in identifying some large emission events, identifying hotpots is challenging because of the imaging noise due to a variety of artifacts and limits in daily coverage. Here we explore possible methodologies to detect methane hotspots using a new, gap-filled, and temporally continuous methane product from NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Constituent Data Assimilation System (CoDAS), which assimilates column averaged methane mole fractions from the TROPOMI with capabilities to assimilate other remote sensing measurements. The CoDAS has been expanded from a heritage of stratospheric composition and carbon dioxide assimilation allowing for the support of regional modeling, validation with non-coincident operations, and merging variety of datasets. The current work mainly explores Observing System Simulation Experiments with methane GEOS simulations without assimilation to prepare the groundwork for further experiments with assimilated TROPOMI. First, known hotspots based on the known inventory are identified to demonstrate the capability of the system to point out emission hotspots. In the next step, a variety of machine learning techniques such as Self-Organizing Maps and Deep Learning are explored to automate detection of the plumes. Finally, a few approaches to quantify emissions from the identified hotspots are presented and are evaluated against the inventory. The effort is directed toward a future evaluation of the CoDAS based methane monitoring system’s ability to successfully detect and quantify hotspots.

Nikolay Balashov↗
NASA NTRS1993

Communications and control for electric power systems: Power flow classification for static security assessment

This report investigates the classification of power system states using an artificial neural network model, Kohonen's self-organizing feature map. The ultimate goal of this classification is to assess power system static security in real-time. Kohonen's self-organizing feature map is an unsupervised neural network which maps N-dimensional input vectors to an array of M neurons. After learning, the synaptic weight vectors exhibit a topological organization which represents the relationship between the vectors of the training set. This learning is unsupervised, which means that the number and size of the classes are not specified beforehand. In the application developed in this report, the input vectors used as the training set are generated by off-line load-flow simulations. The learning algorithm and the results of the organization are discussed.

Niebur, D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Two generalizations of Kohonen clustering

The relationship between the sequential hard c-means (SHCM), learning vector quantization (LVQ), and fuzzy c-means (FCM) clustering algorithms is discussed. LVQ and SHCM suffer from several major problems. For example, they depend heavily on initialization. If the initial values of the cluster centers are outside the convex hull of the input data, such algorithms, even if they terminate, may not produce meaningful results in terms of prototypes for cluster representation. This is due in part to the fact that they update only the winning prototype for every input vector. The impact and interaction of these two families with Kohonen's self-organizing feature mapping (SOFM), which is not a clustering method, but which often leads ideas to clustering algorithms is discussed. Then two generalizations of LVQ that are explicitly designed as clustering algorithms are presented; these algorithms are referred to as generalized LVQ = GLVQ; and fuzzy LVQ = FLVQ. Learning rules are derived to optimize an objective function whose goal is to produce 'good clusters'. GLVQ/FLVQ (may) update every node in the clustering net for each input vector. Neither GLVQ nor FLVQ depends upon a choice for the update neighborhood or learning rate distribution - these are taken care of automatically. Segmentation of a gray tone image is used as a typical application of these algorithms to illustrate the performance of GLVQ/FLVQ.

Bezdek, James C.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Communications and control for electric power systems

The first section of the report describes the AbNET system, a hardware and software communications system designed for distribution automation (it can also find application in substation monitoring and control). The topology of the power system fixes the topology of the communications network, which can therefore be expected to include a larger number of branch points, tap points, and interconnections. These features make this communications network unlike any other. The network operating software has to solve the problem of communicating to all the nodes of a very complex network in as reliable a way as possible even if the network is damaged, and it has to do so with minimum transmission delays and at minimum cost. The design of the operating protocols is described within the framework of the seven-layer Open System Interconnection hierarchy of the International Standards Organization. Section 2 of the report describes the development and testing of a high voltage sensor based on an electro-optic polymer. The theory of operation is reviewed. Bulk fabrication of the polymer is discussed, as well as results of testing of the electro-optic coefficient of the material. Fabrication of a complete prototype sensor suitable for use in the range 1-20 kV is described. The electro-optic polymer is shown to be an important material for fiber optic sensing applications. Appendix A is theoretical support for this work. The third section of the report presents the application of an artificial neural network, Kohonen's self-organizing feature map, for the classification of power system states. This classifier maps vectors of an N-dimensional space to a 2-dimensional neural net in a nonlinear way preserving the topological order of the input vectors. These mappings are studied using a nonlinear power system model.

Kirkham, H.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Monitoring the Microgravity Environment Quality On-Board the International Space Station Using Soft Computing Techniques

This paper presents an artificial intelligence monitoring system developed by the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services project to help the principal investigator teams identify the primary vibratory disturbance sources that are active, at any moment in time, on-board the International Space Station, which might impact the microgravity environment their experiments are exposed to. From the Principal Investigator Microgravity Services' web site, the principal investigator teams can monitor via a graphical display, in near real time, which event(s) is/are on, such as crew activities, pumps, fans, centrifuges, compressor, crew exercise, platform structural modes, etc., and decide whether or not to run their experiments based on the acceleration environment associated with a specific event. This monitoring system is focused primarily on detecting the vibratory disturbance sources, but could be used as well to detect some of the transient disturbance sources, depending on the events duration. The system has built-in capability to detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance sources. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗
NASA NTRS2002

An Intelligent System for Monitoring the Microgravity Environment Quality On-Board the International Space Station

An intelligent system for monitoring the microgravity environment quality on-board the International Space Station is presented. The monitoring system uses a new approach combining Kohonen's self-organizing feature map, learning vector quantization, and back propagation neural network to recognize and classify the known and unknown patterns. Finally, fuzzy logic is used to assess the level of confidence associated with each vibrating source activation detected by the system.

Lin, Paul P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Monitoring the Microgravity Environment Quality On-board the International Space Station Using Soft Computing Techniques: Preliminary System Performance Results - Part 2

This paper presents the preliminary performance results of the artificial intelligence monitoring system in full operational mode using near real time acceleration data downlinked from the International Space Station. Preliminary microgravity environment characterization analysis result for the International Space Station (Increment-2), using the monitoring system is presented. Also, comparison between the system predicted performance based on ground test data for the US laboratory "Destiny" module and actual on-orbit performance, using measured acceleration data from the U.S. laboratory module of the International Space Station is presented. Finally, preliminary on-orbit disturbance magnitude levels are presented for the Experiment of Physics of Colloids in Space, which are compared with on ground test data. The ground test data for the Experiment of Physics of Colloids in Space were acquired from the Microgravity Emission Laboratory, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center, Cleveland, Ohio. The artificial intelligence was developed by the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services Project to help the principal investigator teams identify the primary vibratory disturbance sources that are active, at any moment of time, on-board the International Space Station, which might impact the microgravity environment their experiments are exposed to. From the Principal Investigator Microgravity Services' web site, the principal investigator teams can monitor via a dynamic graphical display, implemented in Java, in near real time, which event(s) is/are on, such as crew activities, pumps, fans, centrifuges, compressor, crew exercise, structural modes, etc., and decide whether or not to run their experiments, whenever that is an option, based on the acceleration magnitude and frequency sensitivity associated with that experiment. This monitoring system detects primarily the vibratory disturbance sources. The system has built-in capability to detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance sources. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗
NASA NTRS2006

Real Time On-line Space Research Laboratory Environment Monitoring with Off-line Trend and Prediction Analysis

One of the responsibilities of the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services is to support NASA sponsored investigators in the area of reduced-gravity acceleration data analysis, interpretation and the monitoring of the reduced-gravity environment on-board various carriers. With the International Space Station currently operational, a significant amount of acceleration data is being down-linked and processed on ground for both the space station onboard environment characterization (and verification) and scientific experiments. Therefore, to help principal investigator teams monitor the acceleration level on-board the International Space Station to avoid undesirable impact on their experiment, when possible, the NASA Glenn Principal Investigator Microgravity Services developed an artificial intelligence monitoring system, which detects in near real time any change in the environment susceptible to affect onboard experiments. The main objective of the monitoring system is to help research teams identify the vibratory disturbances that are active at any instant of time onboard the International Space Station that might impact the environment in which their experiment is being conducted. The monitoring system allows any space research scientist, at any location and at any time, to see the current acceleration level on-board the Space Station via the World Wide Web. From the NASA Glenn s Exploration Systems Division web site, research scientists can see in near real time the active disturbances, such as pumps, fans, compressor, crew exercise, re-boost, extra-vehicular activity, etc., and decide whether or not to continue operating or stopping (or making note of such activity for later correlation with science results) their experiments based on the g-level associated with that specific event. A dynamic graphical display accessible via the World Wide Web shows the status of all the vibratory disturbance activities with their degree of confidence as well as their g-level contribution to the environment. The system can detect both known and unknown vibratory disturbance activities. It can also perform trend analysis and prediction by analyzing past data over many Increments of the space station for selected disturbance activities. This feature can be used to monitor the health of onboard mechanical systems to detect and prevent potential system failure as well as for use by research scientists during their science results analysis. Examples of both real time on-line vibratory disturbance detection and off-line trend analysis are presented in this paper. Several soft computing techniques such as Kohonen s Self-Organizing Feature Map, Learning Vector Quantization, Back-Propagation Neural Networks, and Fuzzy Logic were used to design the system.

Jules, Kenol↗
NASA NTRS1991

The performance evaluation of a new neural network based traffic management scheme for a satellite communication network

A neural-network-based traffic management scheme for a satellite communication network is described. The scheme consists of two levels of management. The front end of the scheme is a derivation of Kohonen's self-organization model to configure maps for the satellite communication network dynamically. The model consists of three stages. The first stage is the pattern recognition task, in which an exemplar map that best meets the current network requirements is selected. The second stage is the analysis of the discrepancy between the chosen exemplar map and the state of the network, and the adaptive modification of the chosen exemplar map to conform closely to the network requirement (input data pattern) by means of Kohonen's self-organization. On the basis of certain performance criteria, whether a new map is generated to replace the original chosen map is decided in the third stage. A state-dependent routing algorithm, which arranges the incoming call to some proper path, is used to make the network more efficient and to lower the call block rate. Simulation results demonstrate that the scheme, which combines self-organization and the state-dependent routing mechanism, provides better performance in terms of call block rate than schemes that only have either the self-organization mechanism or the routing mechanism.

Ansari, Nirwan↗
NASA NTRS1991

Self-organization and clustering algorithms

Kohonen's feature maps approach to clustering is often likened to the k or c-means clustering algorithms. Here, the author identifies some similarities and differences between the hard and fuzzy c-Means (HCM/FCM) or ISODATA algorithms and Kohonen's self-organizing approach. The author concludes that some differences are significant, but at the same time there may be some important unknown relationships between the two methodologies. Several avenues of research are proposed.

Bezdek, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamical networks with topological self-organization

Coupled evolution of state and topology of dynamical networks is introduced. Due to the well organized tensor structure, the governing equations are presented in a canonical form, and required attractors as well as their basins can be easily implanted and controlled.

neural net architecture self organizing feature ma↗
NASA NTRS1992

Adding dynamic rules to self-organizing fuzzy systems

This paper develops a Dynamic Self-Organizing Fuzzy System (DSOFS) capable of adding, removing, and/or adapting the fuzzy rules and the fuzzy reference sets. The DSOFS background consists of a self-organizing neural structure with neuron relocation features which will develop a map of the input-output behavior. The relocation algorithm extends the topological ordering concept. Fuzzy rules (neurons) are dynamically added or released while the neural structure learns the pattern. The DSOFS advantages are the automatic synthesis and the possibility of parallel implementation. A high adaptation speed and a reduced number of neurons is needed in order to keep errors under some limits. The computer simulation results are presented in a nonlinear systems modelling application.

Buhusi, Catalin V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

An evaluation of ISOCLS and CLASSY clustering algorithms for forest classification in northern Idaho

Both the iterative self-organizing clustering system (ISOCLS) and the CLASSY algorithms were applied to forest and nonforest classes for one 1:24,000 quadrangle map of northern Idaho and the classification and mapping accuracies were evaluated with 1:30,000 color infrared aerial photography. Confusion matrices for the two clustering algorithms were generated and studied to determine which is most applicable to forest and rangeland inventories in future projects. In an unsupervised mode, ISOCLS requires many trial-and-error runs to find the proper parameters to separate desired information classes. CLASSY tells more in a single run concerning the classes that can be separated, shows more promise for forest stratification than ISOCLS, and shows more promise for consistency. One major drawback to CLASSY is that important forest and range classes that are smaller than a minimum cluster size will be combined with other classes. The algorithm requires so much computer storage that only data sets as small as a quadrangle can be used at one time.

Werth, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Flood Inundation Mapping in the Logone Floodplain from Multi Temporal Landsat ETM+Imagery

Yearly flooding in the Logone floodplain makes an impact on agricultural, pastoral, and fishery systems in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the flooding extent and depth are highly variable, flood inundation mapping helps us make better use of water resources and prevent flood hazards in the Logone floodplain. The flood maps are generated from 33 multi temporal Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) during three years 2006 to 2008. Flooded area is classified using a short-wave infrared band whereas open water is classified by Iterative Self-organizing Data Analysis (ISODATA) clustering. The maximum flooding extent in the study area increases up to approximately 5.8K km2 in late October 2008. The study also provides strong correlation of the flooding extents with water height variations in both the floodplain and the river based on a second polynomial regression model. The water heights are from ENIVSAT altimetry in the floodplain and gauge measurements in the river. Coefficients of determination between flooding extents and water height variations are greater than 0.91 with 4 to 36 days in phase lag. Floodwater drains back to the river and to the northeast during the recession period in December and January. The study supports understanding of the Logone floodplain dynamics in detail of spatial pattern and size of the flooding extent and assists the flood monitoring and prediction systems in the catchment.

Jung, Hahn Chul↗
NASA NTRS2023

Huntsville Urban Development II: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Map the Urban Heat Island and Evaluate Vulnerability in Huntsville, Alabama

Huntsville, Alabama has seen a boom in growth over recent years. One consequence of this urban expansion is the exacerbation of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect across the city. This project identified the areas within Huntsville the greatest potential for heat reduction and community health benefits from tree-planting efforts. The team created maps of land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) over June through August from 2019 to 2022 using data from ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station, Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), Landsat 9 OLI-2 and TIRS-2. The team identified areas with high LST, low NDVI, and high NDBI as areas with the greatest potential for heat reduction via tree-planting. Social factors relating to age, race, income, and self-reported health were adapted from Tree Equity Score to map community need for tree cover. When combining social with environmental factors, the team determined areas with the greatest potential for UHI mitigation: west-central and north downtown Huntsville. The team’s partner organization, the City of Huntsville, can use this priority map to guide their future tree-planting, and weigh the factors assessed according to their preference.

James Karroum↗