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NASA NTRS2021

Climate Scenarios and Reality

Progress on the important issue of climate change requires a framework for evaluating the likely consequences of different courses of action. Science can powerfully inform public decisions on energy systems, infrastructure, and economic policy when researchers explore, using the best available evidence, a range of possible futures using emissions scenarios. The process of constructing, describing, and using these scenarios is challenging for many reasons. The continued evolution and improvement of emissions scenarios is an important element of the future of climate-change research. But in “How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality” (Issues, Summer 2021), Roger Pielke Jr. and Justin Ritchie are wildly off base in declaring that the “misuse of scenarios in climate research has become pervasive and consequential—so much so that we view it as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far.”

climate change↗

NASA NTRS2004

Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

Bacal, Kira↗

NASA NTRS2011

ISECG Mission Scenarios and Their Role in Informing Next Steps for Human Exploration Beyond Low Earth Orbit

The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) was established in response to The Global Exploration Strategy (GES): The Framework for Coordination developed by fourteen space agencies* and released in May 2007. This GES Framework Document recognizes that preparing for human space exploration is a stepwise process, starting with basic knowledge and culminating in a sustained human presence in deep space. ISECG has developed several optional global exploration mission scenarios enabling the phased transition from human operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) to human missions beyond LEO leading ultimately to human missions to cis-lunar space, the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids, Mars and its environs. Mission scenarios provide the opportunity for judging various exploration approaches in a manner consistent with agreed international goals and strategies. Each ISECG notional mission scenario reflects a series of coordinated human and robotic exploration missions over a 25-year horizon. Mission scenarios are intended to provide insights into next steps for agency investments, following on the success of the ISS. They also provide a framework for advancing the definition of Design Reference Missions (DRMs) and the concepts for capabilities contained within. Each of the human missions contained in the scenarios has been characterized by a DRM which is a top level definition of mission sequence and the capabilities needed to execute that mission. While DRMs are generally destination focused, they will comprise capabilities which are reused or evolved from capabilities used at other destinations. In this way, an evolutionary approach to developing a robust set of capabilities to sustainably explore our solar system is defined. Agencies also recognize that jointly planning for our next steps, building on the accomplishments of ISS, is important to ensuring the robustness and sustainability of any human exploration plan. Developing a shared long-term vision is important, but agencies recognize this is an evolutionary process and requires consideration of many strategic factors. Strategic factors such as the implications of an emerging commercial space industry in LEO, the opportunity provided by extending ISS lifetime to at least 2020, and the importance of defining a plan which is sustainable in light of inevitable domestic policy shifts are timely for agency consideration.

Culbert, Christopher J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Validated Set of MIDAS V5 Task Network Model Scenarios to Evaluate Nextgen Closely Spaced Parallel Operations Concepts

The Closely Spaced Parallel Operations (CSPO) scenario is a complex, human performance model scenario that tested alternate operator roles and responsibilities to a series of off-nominal operations on approach and landing (see Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013). The model links together the procedures, equipment, crewstation, and external environment to produce predictions of operator performance in response to Next Generation system designs, like those expected in the National Airspaces NextGen concepts. The task analysis that is contained in the present report comes from the task analysis window in the MIDAS software. These tasks link definitions and states for equipment components, environmental features as well as operational contexts. The current task analysis culminated in 3300 tasks that included over 1000 Subject Matter Expert (SME)-vetted, re-usable procedural sets for three critical phases of flight; the Descent, Approach, and Land procedural sets (see Gore et al., 2011 for a description of the development of the tasks included in the model; Gore, Hooey, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the model, and its results; Hooey, Gore, Mahlstedt, Foyle, 2013 for a description of the guidelines that were generated from the models results; Gore, Hooey, Foyle, 2012 for a description of the models implementation and its settings). The rollout, after landing checks, taxi to gate and arrive at gate illustrated in Figure 1 were not used in the approach and divert scenarios exercised. The other networks in Figure 1 set up appropriate context settings for the flight deck.The current report presents the models task decomposition from the tophighest level and decomposes it to finer-grained levels. The first task that is completed by the model is to set all of the initial settings for the scenario runs included in the model (network 75 in Figure 1). This initialization process also resets the CAD graphic files contained with MIDAS, as well as the embedded operator models that comprise MIDAS. Following the initial settings, the model progresses to begin the first tasks required of the two flight deck operators, the Captain (CA) and the First Officer (FO). The task sets will initialize operator specific settings prior to loading all of the alerts, probes, and other events that occur in the scenario. As a note, the CA and FO were terms used in developing this model but the CA can also be thought of as the Pilot Flying (PF), while the FO can be considered the Pilot-Not-Flying (PNF)or Pilot Monitoring (PM). As such, the document refers to the operators as PFCA and PNFFO respectively.

task network model↗

NASA NTRS2014

The Impact of New Estimates of Mixing Ratio and Flux-based Halogen Scenarios on Ozone Evolution

The evolution of ozone in the 21st century has been shown to be mainly impacted by the halogen emissions scenario and predicted changes in the circulation of the stratosphere. New estimates of mixing ratio and flux-based emission scenarios have been produced from the SPARC Lifetime Assessment 2013. Simulations using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM) are conducted using this new A1 2014 halogen scenario and compared to ones using the A1 2010 scenario. This updated version of GEOSCCM includes a realistic representation of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and improvements related to the break up of the Antarctic polar vortex. We will present results of the ozone evolution over the recent past and 21st century to the A1 2010, A1 2014 mixing ratio, and an A1 2014 flux-based halogen scenario. Implications of the uncertainties in these estimates as well as those from possible circulation changes will be discussed.

Chemistry-Climate Models↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global and Regional Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States

The Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flood Hazard Scenarios and Tools Interagency Task Force, jointly convened by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Ocean Council (NOC), began its work in August 2015. The Task Force has focused its efforts on three primary tasks: 1) updating scenarios of global mean sea level (GMSL) rise, 2) integrating the global scenarios with regional factors contributing to sea level change for the entire U.S. coastline, and 3) incorporating these regionally appropriate scenarios within coastal risk management tools and capabilities deployed by individual agencies in support of the needs of specific stakeholder groups and user communities. This technical report focuses on the first two of these tasks and reports on the production of gridded relative sea level (RSL, which includes both ocean-level change and vertical land motion) projections for the United States associated with an updated set of GMSL scenarios. In addition to supporting the longer-term Task Force effort, this new product will be an important input into the USGCRP Sustained Assessment process and upcoming Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) due in 2018. This report also serves as a key technical input into the in-progress USGCRP Climate Science Special Report (CSSR).

Sweet, William V.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

NASA NTRS2022

Premature Deaths in Africa Due to Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios

Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to fine particulate matter in Africa under a “baseline” scenario with high material consumption, population growth, and warming to that projected under a sustainability scenario with lower consumption, population growth, and warming. Evaluating the mortality impacts of these exposures, we find that under the low warming scenario annual premature deaths due to PM2.5 are reduced by roughly 515,000 by 2050 relative to the high warming scenario (100,000, 175,000, 55,000, 140,000, and 45,000 in Northern, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, respectively). This reduction rises to ∼800,000 by the 2090s, though by that time much of the difference is attributable to the projected differences in population. By contrast, during the first half of the century benefits are driven predominantly by emissions changes. Depending on the region, we find large intermodel spreads of ∼25%–50% in projected future exposures owing to different physics across the ensemble of 6 global models. The spread of projected deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter, including uncertainty in the exposure-response function, are reduced in every region to ∼20%–35% by the non-linear exposure-response function. Differences between the scenarios have an even narrower spread of ∼5%–25% and are highly statistically significant in all regions for all models. These results provide valuable information for policy-makers to consider when working toward climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.

PM2.5↗

NASA NTRS2021

Exploration Medical Capability Medical Scenarios

Medical systems supporting exploration class missions to cislunar space, the lunar surface, and the vicinity of Mars require an evolution in medical capability beyond that available for today’s low Earth orbit centric paradigm. Progress in developing more capable medical systems will be driven by the requirements of prolonged mission duration, increasing distance from Earth, and the realities of orbital mechanics, all necessitating a concomitant need for progressively Earth independent medical decision-making capabilities. These medical systems (which include the crewmembers) are expected to be capable of evaluating, diagnosing, treating and managing a defined list of medical conditions as well as addressing unanticipated medical conditions that may arise. The prioritized medical capabilities and associated resources needed to treat these medical conditions and support anticipated inflight medical events provide robust content that informs system designers and allows for a more complete evaluation of both medical and overall mission risk. Communication of these medical capabilities to system, vehicle, and mission designers can be enhanced using scenarios that characterize the system’s operations. Carefully considered scenarios provide the context needed to explore expected human and system interfaces, roles of ground and inflight crew (including periods of interrupted or delayed communications), identify training needs, assess data needs, etc. Mission-based scenario content varies dependent upon the needs, medical capabilities, conditions and context they are intended to illustrate. This document explicitly seeks to capture and codify those scenarios that have been useful to the Exploration Medical Capability Element of the Human Research Program in defining the enhanced medical systems required for future space exploration. It is expected that this document will continue to evolve through the refinement and characterization of current and future scenarios, respectively, as our knowledge grows, and requirements increasingly focus on Earth independent spaceflight operations.

Derek M Nusbaum↗

NASA NTRS2013

Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

Well prepared traffic scenarios contribute greatly to the success of controller-in-the-loop simulations. This paper describes each stage in the design process of realistic scenarios based on real-world traffic, to be used in the Airspace Operations Laboratory for simulations within the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration 1 effort. The steps from the initial analysis of real-world traffic, to the editing of individual aircraft records in the scenario file, until the final testing of the scenarios before the simulation conduct, are all described. The iterative nature of the design process and the various efforts necessary to reach the required fidelity, as well as the applied design strategies, challenges, and tools used during this process are also discussed.

ATD1↗

NASA NTRS2016

Nitrous Oxides Ozone Destructiveness Under Different Climate Scenarios

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance as well as a key component of the nitrogen cascade. While emissions scenarios indicating the range of N2O's potential future contributions to radiative forcing are widely available, the impact of these emissions scenarios on future stratospheric ozone depletion is less clear. This is because N2O's ozone destructiveness is partially dependent on tropospheric warming, which affects ozone depletion rates in the stratosphere. Consequently, in order to understand the possible range of stratospheric ozone depletion that N2O could cause over the 21st century, it is important to decouple the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and compare different emissions trajectories for individual substances (e.g. business-as-usual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions versus low emissions of N2O). This study is the first to follow such an approach, running a series of experiments using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences ModelE2 atmospheric sub-model. We anticipate our results to show that stratospheric ozone depletion will be highest in a scenario where CO2 emissions reductions are prioritized over N2O reductions, as this would constrain ozone recovery while doing little to limit stratospheric NOx levels (the breakdown product of N2O that destroys stratospheric ozone). This could not only delay the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer, but might also prevent a return to pre-1980 global average ozone concentrations, a key goal of the international ozone regime. Accordingly, we think this will highlight the importance of reducing emissions of all major greenhouse gas emissions, including N2O, and not just a singular policy focus on CO2.

stratospheric ozone depletion↗

NASA NTRS1981

Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

Sherwin, P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1992

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The peculiar velocities of rich clusters in the hot and cold dark matter scenarios

We present the results of a study of the peculiar velocities of rich clusters of galaxies. The peculiar motion of rich clusters in various cosmological scenarios is of interest for a number of reasons. Observationally, one can measure the peculiar motion of clusters to greater distances than galaxies because cluster peculiar motions can be determined to greater accuracy. One can also test the slope of distance indicator relations using clusters to see if galaxy properties vary with environment. We have used N-body simulations to measure the amplitude and rms cluster peculiar velocity as a function of bias parameter in the hot and cold dark matter scenarios. In addition to measuring the mean and rms peculiar velocity of clusters in the two models, we determined whether the peculiar velocity vector of a given cluster is well aligned with the gravity vector due to all the particles in the simulation and the gravity vector due to the particles present only in the clusters. We have investigated the peculiar velocities of rich clusters of galaxies in the cold dark matter and hot dark matter galaxy formation scenarios. We have derived peculiar velocities and associated errors for the scenarios using four values of the bias parameter ranging from b = 1 to b = 2.5. The growth of the mean peculiar velocity with scale factor has been determined and compared to that predicted by linear theory. In addition, we have compared the orientation of force and velocity in these simulations to see if a program such as that proposed by Bertschinger and Dekel (1989) for elliptical galaxy peculiar motions can be applied to clusters. The method they describe enables one to recover the density field from large scale redshift distance samples. The method makes it possible to do this when only radial velocities are known by assuming that the velocity field is curl free. Our analysis suggests that this program if applied to clusters is only realizable for models with a low value of the bias parameter, i.e., models in which the peculiar velocities of clusters are large enough that the errors do not render the analysis impracticable.

Rhee, George F.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

Callahan, John R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Scenario for Hollow Cathode End-Of-Life

Recent successful hollow cathode life tests have demonstrated that lifetimes can meet the requirements of several space applications. However, there are no methods for assessing cathode lifetime short of demonstrating the requirement. Previous attempts to estimate or predict cathode lifetime were based on relatively simple chemical depletion models derived from the dispenser cathode community. To address this lack of predicative capability, a scenario for hollow cathode lifetime under steady-state operating conditions is proposed. This scenario has been derived primarily from the operating behavior and post-test condition of a hollow cathode that was operated for 28,000 hours. In this scenario, the insert chemistry evolves through three relatively distinct phases over the course of the cathode lifetime. These phases are believed to correspond to demonstrable changes in cathode operation. The implications for cathode lifetime limits resulting from this scenario are examined, including methods to assess cathode lifetime without operating to End-of- Life and methods to extend the cathode lifetime.

Sarver-Verhey, Timothy R.↗