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Measuring the residual stress and stress-corrosion cracking susceptibility of additively manufactured 316L by ASTM G36-94

Residual stress is a contributor to stress-corrosion cracking (SCC) and a common byproduct of additive manufacturing (AM). In this work, the relationship between residual stress and SCC susceptibility in laser powder bed fusion AM 316L stainless steel was studied through immersion in saturated boiling magnesium chloride per ASTM G36-94. The residual stress was varied by changing the sample height for the as-built condition and additionally by heat treatments at 600, 800, and 1200 °C to control, and in some cases reduce, residual stress. In general, all samples in the as-built condition showed susceptibility to SCC with the thinner, lower residual stress samples showing shallower cracks and crack propagation occurring perpendicular to melt tracks due to local residual stress fields. The heat-treated samples showed a reduction in residual stress for the 800 and 1200 °C samples. Both were free of cracks after >300 hours of immersion in MgCl 2 , while the 600 °C sample showed similar cracking to their as-built counterpart. Geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) density analysis indicates that the dislocation density may play a major role in the SCC susceptibility.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Structure and mechanism of biosynthesis of Streptococcus mutans cell wall polysaccharide

Streptococcus mutans, the causative agent of human dental caries, expresses a cell wall attached Serotype c-specific Carbohydrate (SCC) that is critical for cell viability. SCC consists of a polyrhamnose backbone of →3)α-Rha(1 → 2)α-Rha(1→ repeats with glucose (Glc) side-chains and glycerol phosphate (GroP) decorations. This study reveals that SCC has one predominant and two more minor Glc modifications. The predominant Glc modification, α-Glc, attached to position 2 of 3-rhamnose, is installed by SccN and SccM glycosyltransferases and is the site of the GroP addition. The minor Glc modifications are β-Glc linked to position 4 of 3-rhamnose installed by SccP and SccQ glycosyltransferases, and α-Glc attached to position 4 of 2-rhamnose installed by SccN working in tandem with an unknown enzyme. Both the major and the minor β-Glc modifications control bacterial morphology, but only the GroP and major Glc modifications are critical for biofilm formation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modification of cell wall polysaccharide guides cell division in Streptococcus mutans

In ovoid-shaped, Gram-positive bacteria, MapZ guides FtsZ-ring positioning at cell equators. The cell wall of the ovococcus Streptococcus mutans contains peptidoglycan decorated with serotype c carbohydrates (SCCs). In the present study, we identify the major cell separation autolysin AtlA as an SCC-binding protein. AtlA binding to SCC is attenuated by the glycerol phosphate (GroP) modification. Using fluorescently labeled AtlA constructs, we mapped SCC distribution on the streptococcal surface, revealing enrichment of GroP-deficient immature SCCs at the cell poles and equators. The immature SCCs co-localize with MapZ at the equatorial rings throughout the cell cycle. In GroP-deficient mutants, AtlA is mislocalized, resulting in dysregulated cellular autolysis. These mutants display morphological abnormalities associated with MapZ mislocalization, leading to FtsZ-ring misplacement. Altogether, our data support a model in which maturation of a cell wall polysaccharide provides the molecular cues for the recruitment of cell division machinery, ensuring proper daughter cell separation and FtsZ-ring positioning.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Association between the findings of metachronous secondary primary malignancies and the number of Lugol-voiding lesions

Summary This study was designed to evaluate the relation between dysplastic squamous epithelium in the esophageal mucosa and the development of metachronous secondary primary malignancies (mSPM) other than esophagus after endoscopic resection (ER) in patients with early esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). We studied 330 patients with early esophageal SCC who underwent ER as a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicenter cohort study (UMIN Clinical Trials Registry ID UMIN000001676). Lugol-voiding lesions (LVL) were graded into 3 categories (A = no lesion; B = 1 to 9 lesions; C ≥ 10 lesions). The following variables were studied: (i) the incidences of mSPM other than esophagus; (ii) the standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) of mSPM; (iii) the cumulative incidence and total number of mSPM other than esophagus; and (iv) predictors of mSPM other than esophagus on analysis with a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model. After a median follow-up of 46.6 months, mSPM other than esophagus was diagnosed in a total of 73 patients (90 lesions). Among the 106 patients in group C, 37 patients had mSPM (51 lesions), including head and neck cancer in 14 patients (24 lesions) and gastric cancer in 12 patients (16 lesions). The SIR of mSPM was 3.61 in this study subjects. An increase in the LVL grade (A to B to C) was associated with a progressive increase in the cumulative incidence rate of mSPM other than esophagus (P = 0.017 for A vs. C, P = 0.023 for B vs. C). An increase in the LVL grade (A to B to C) was also associated with a progressive increase in the total number of mSPM other than esophagus per 100 person-years (primary events, relative risk [RR] = 1.66 and 3.24 for grades B and C, respectively, vs. A, P = 0.002 for trend; all events, RR = 1.81 and 4.66 for grades B and C, respectively, vs. A, P < 0.0001 for trend). LVL grade C was a strong predictor of mSPM other than esophagus (RR = 3.41 for A vs. C). LVL grade may be a useful predictor of the risk of mSPM other than esophagus after ER in patients with early esophageal SCC.

Katada, Chikatoshi↗

Stress Corrosion Cracking of NaSICON Membranes in Aqueous Electrolytes for Redox-Flow Batteries

The sodium super-ionic conductor (NaSICON) has versatile applications as a ceramic electrolyte for energy storage, where it can serve as an impermeable separator in solid-state batteries and redox flow systems. In particular, NaSICON systems have been proposed to be relatively stable in contact with water, making them compatible with aqueous battery chemistries. However, owing to their brittle nature and metal oxide constituents, stress-corrosion cracking (SCC) is an important failure mechanism that has not been previously explored. In this study, we assess the fracture toughness of NaSICON membranes in contact with aqueous solutions that are relevant to redox flow systems. Microindentation was performed to generate visible surface cracks and residual stress, which were observed to grow in length after exposure to aqueous solutions. This allows for a quantitative measurement of fracture toughness, which decreases after exposure to water. To contextualize these results, we develop a simplified model of the fracture behavior in aqueous redox-flow batteries that incorporate NaSICON membranes, illustrating the importance of SCC in cell design. This work provides quantitative insights into SCC as a failure mode in NaSICON, enhancing our understanding of the chemo-mechanical behavior of ceramic electrolytes in contact with aqueous solutions.

Zhang, Mengyao↗

Effect of thermal aging and irradiation on microstructure and crack growth response of Alloy 690

Nickel-base Alloy 690 and the associated weld Alloys 52 and 152 are typically used for nozzle penetrations in replacement heads for pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessels, because of their excellent overall resistance to general corrosion and environmental degradation, primarily stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, many of the existing PWRs reactors are expected to operate for 40-80 years. Likewise, advanced water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) will use Ni-Cr alloys and are expected to receive initial operating licenses for 60 years. Hence, the thermal stability of Ni-Cr alloys is a potential concern for the long-term performance of both existing and advanced nuclear plants, and possibly spent fuel storage containers. The objective of this research is to understand the microstructural changes occurring in high-Cr, Ni-based Alloy 690 during long time exposure to the reactor operating temperatures, and the effect of these changes on the service performance. One area of particular concern is the potential for long range ordering (LRO), i.e. formation of the intermetallic Ni 2 Cr phase under prolonged exposure to reactor temperatures and/or irradiation, which can increase strength, decrease ductility, and cause dimensional changes or lead to in-service embrittlement of components made with these alloys. Hence, this research focused on the microstructural evolution and the SCC response of Alloy 690 under accelerated thermal aging and irradiation conditions. The materials studied involved Alloy 690 from two sources: (i) Alloy 690 plate from an Alloy 152 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) joining the Alloy 690 plate to Alloy 533 LAS, aged at three different temperatures (370°C, 400°C and 450°C) for up to 75,000h (equivalent to 60 years of service), and (ii) specimens neutron-irradiated in the BOR-60 reactor up to 40 dpa. For aged Alloy 690 specimens, hardness was found to increase with aging time, however, the microstructural characterization by means of synchrotron X-ray did not find evidence of LRO. The microstructural characterization of neutron-irradiated specimens by TEM found no evidence of LRO either. Testing in a primary water environment of Alloy 690 specimens aged to a 60-year service equivalent revealed a fatigue and corrosion fatigue crack growth responses similar to those measured on the un-aged alloy. The SCC CGR response was also low. Overall, the two Alloy 690 heats investigated in this work, aged up to 60-year service equivalents or exposed to neutron irradiation up to 40 dpa, did not exhibit a deterioration in microstructure or performance.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FY2022 Status Update: A Probabilistic Model for Stress Corrosion Cracking of SNF Dry Storage Canisters

Understanding the potential risk of stress corrosion cracking of spent nuclear fuel dry storage canisters has been identified as a knowledge gap for determining the safety of long-term interim storage of spent nuclear fuel. To address this, the DOE is funding a multi-lab DOE effort to understand the timing, occurrence, and consequences of potential canister SCC. Sandia National Laboratories has developed a probabilistic model for canister penetration by SCC. This model has been continuously updated at SNL since 2014. Model uncertainties are treated using a nested loop structure, where the outer loop accounts for uncertainties due to lack of data and the inner aleatoric loop accounts for uncertainties due to variation in nature. By separating uncertainties into these categories, it is possible to focus future work on reducing the most influential epistemic uncertainties. Several experimental studies have already been performed to improve the modeling approach through expanded process understanding and improved model parameterization. The resulting code is physics-based and intended to inform future work by identifying (1) important modeling assumptions, (2) experimental data needs, and (3) necessary model developments. In this document, several of the sub-models in the probabilistic SCC model have been exercised, and the intermediate results, as the model progresses from one sub-model to the next, are presented. Evaluating the sub-models in this manner provides a better understanding of sub-model outputs and has identified several unintended consequences of model assumptions or parameterizations, requiring updates to the modeling approach. The following updates have been made, and future updates have been identified.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Effect of thermal aging on microstructure and crack growth response of Alloy 152 weld

Nickel-based Alloy 690 and the associated weld Alloys 52 and 152 are typically used for nozzle penetrations in replacement heads for pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessels, because of their excellent overall resistance to general corrosion and environmental degradation, primarily stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, many of the existing PWRs are expected to operate for 40-80 years. Likewise, advanced water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) will use Ni-Cr alloys and are expected to receive initial operating licenses for 60 years. Hence, the thermal stability of Ni-Cr alloys is a potential concern for the long-term performance of both existing and advanced nuclear power plants, and possibly spent fuel storage containers. The objective of this research is to understand the microstructural changes occurring in high-Cr, Ni-based Alloy 152 weldments during long time exposure to the reactor operating temperatures, and the effect of these changes on the service performance. One area of particular concern is the potential for long range ordering (LRO), i.e. formation of the intermetallic Ni2Cr phase under prolonged exposure to reactor temperatures and/or irradiation, which can increase strength, decrease ductility, and cause dimensional changes or lead to in-service embrittlement of components made with these alloys. Hence, this research focused on the microstructural evolution and the SCC response of Alloy 152 under accelerated thermal aging. The materials studied involved three heats of Alloy 152 used to produce a dissimilar metal weld (DMW) joining an Alloy 690 plate to an Alloy 533 low alloy steel (LAS) plate, thermally aged at three different temperatures (370°C, 400°C and 450°C) for up to 75,000h (equivalent to 60 years of service). The microstructural characterization by means of synchrotron X-ray did not find evidence of LRO in any of the three heats aged to an equivalent of 60 years of service. Testing in a primary water environment of a heat of Alloy 152 aged at 370°C to a 60-year service equivalent revealed a fatigue and corrosion fatigue crack growth responses similar to those measured on the un-aged alloy. However, the SCC CGR response of the aged sample appears to show a deterioration in performance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Effect of thermal aging on microstructure and stress corrosion cracking behavior of Alloy 152 weldment

Nickel-based Alloy 690 and the associated weld Alloys 52 and 152 are typically used for nozzle penetrations in replacement heads for pressurized water reactor (PWR) vessels, because of their excellent overall resistance to general corrosion and environmental degradation, primarily stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, many of the existing PWRs are expected to operate for 40-80 years. Likewise, water-cooled small modular reactors (SMRs) will use Ni-Cr alloys and are expected to receive initial operating licenses for 60 years. Hence, the thermal stability of Ni-Cr alloys is a potential concern for the long-term performance of both existing and advanced nuclear power plants, and possibly spent fuel storage containers. The objective of this research is to understand the microstructural changes occurring in high-Cr, Ni-based Alloy 152 weldments during long time exposure to the reactor operating temperatures, and the effect of these changes on the service performance. One area of particular concern is the potential for long range ordering (LRO), i.e. formation of the intermetallic Ni2Cr phase under prolonged exposure to reactor temperatures and/or irradiation, which can increase strength, decrease ductility, and cause dimensional changes or lead to in-service embrittlement of components made with these alloys. Hence, this research focused on the microstructural evolution and the SCC response of Alloy 152 under accelerated thermal aging. The materials studied involved three heats of Alloy 152 used to produce a dissimilar metal weld (DMW) joining an Alloy 690 plate to an Alloy 533 low alloy steel (LAS) plate, thermally aged at three different temperatures (370°C, 400°C and 450°C) for up to 75,000h (equivalent to 60 years of service). The microstructural characterization by means of synchrotron X-ray conducted in small, 0.2 mm - step line scans in the high-deformation regions of the weld root – covering areas spanning from the weld heat affected zone (HAZ) in Alloy 690 to the weld and weld butter on LAS - did not show evidence of LRO in any of the three Alloy 152 heats aged to an equivalent of 60 years of service. Testing in a primary water environment of two heats of Alloy 152 aged at 370°C to a 60-year service equivalent revealed a fatigue and corrosion fatigue crack growth responses similar to those measured on the un-aged alloys. However, the SCC CGR response of the aged samples appears to show a deterioration in performance, confirming our previous observation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

FY24 Progress Report: Disposition of Cracks & Features Observed in the Inner Can Closure Weld Region (ICCWR) of the 3013 Package

The long-term integrity of the 3013 containers is of interest for the safe storage of Pu materials. Although the 3013 standard embodies multiple barrier concept, the integrity of the inner container is considered to be crucial since it protects the Safety Class outer container from its contents. The container is designed to withstand high pressures that could result from the complete radiolysis of the maximum water content permissible by the 3013 standard. Shelf-life studies and destructive examination have not found high gas pressures but have found that corrosive gases are generated. Pitting and stress corrosion cracking (SCC) are considered to be critical corrosion modes for the performance of the inner container and have been observed during destructive examinations. Considerable research has been conducted on the possibility of aqueous electrolytes condensing on the inner container that can promote SCC. These studies indicate the uncertainties surrounding the formation of corrosive environments and the corrosion behavior of container materials. In this initial report, a Bayesian network (BN) model is described that can consider the uncertainties and the causal connections between various factors influencing the corrosion modes of the inner container. The BN model is preliminary and provides an initial framework to identify the necessary information. The report also provides initial experimental results on the electrochemical behavior of stainless steels in anticipated condensed environments from gas phase migration of acidic gases. The experimental results are consistent with the corrosion model. Recommendation for further work on the BN model include assembling an expert group to provide input to the BN structure and quantification of the conditional probability matrix, experimental studies to characterize the microstructure of the container, electrochemical studies to identify critical potentials for localized corrosion and SCC, and crack growth rate studies

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Integrated Simulation of Weld Residual Stress Evolution and Crack Propagation Using XFEM

Nuclear power plant components operate in environments that promote multiple degradation mecha- nisms, several of which involve crack initiation and growth. An ongoing effort in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program is developing a general capability within the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework for simulating three-dimensional crack growth under a range of driving conditions, including fatigue, stress corrosion cracking (SCC), brittle fracture, and stress-relaxation cracking. This report demonstrates an end-to-end workflow that uses this capability to model weld-residual-stress-driven SCC in the J-groove weld of a pressurized-water reactor control rod drive mechanism penetration in the vessel head. The workflow consists of a thermomechanical welding simulation with temperature-dependent plasticity, followed by cooldown to ambient conditions, and a restart of the simulation using the MOOSE extended finite element method (XFEM) module to propagate a three-dimensional crack through the residual stress field. New welding capabilities were developed to properly initialize newly activated elements in the weld region, and robustness improvements were made to the mesh-based algorithm for defining cutting planes in the 3D XFEM algorithm, allowing it to handle complex crack fronts and stress fields. Together these advances allowed the simulated SCC crack to grow from an initial elliptical flaw in the weld, across the weld, through the tube wall, and almost to the triple point (where the weld, tube, and reactor pressure vessel head intersect) over roughly 36 years of simulated service. These results demonstrate a workflow that can be extended to fully three-dimensional welding simulations and more complex crack interaction problems.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Mechanisms of Mitigating Chloride-Induced Stress Corrosion Cracking of Austenitic Steels by Laser Shock Peening

This study investigates the effect of laser shock peening (LSP) on the chloride-induced stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of 304 austenitic steels. LSP can induce a high compressive residual stress to a depth of 700 µm and plastic deformation structures of dislocations, deformation twins, and stacking faults. Constant-load SCC tests in MgCl2 solution suggested that LSP can retard the crack initiation and slow the crack growth. LSP-treated subsurface layers experience ductile fracture while the central regions exhibit intergranular SCC. The LSP-induced deformation structures may impede dislocation slips, while the LSP-induced compressive residual stress can lessen the stress intensity factor of crack tips and decrease the local stress for film rupture.

Materials Science↗

Destructive Examination Protocol for 3013-Container-Package Storing Plutonium-Bearing Materials

The 3013-container-package consists of a convenience, inner and outer container and is used for long-term storage of plutonium-bearing materials. A destructive examination (DE) protocol has been developed to examine the container package visually and with microscopic aid to find any corrosion conditions that could result in the loss of the integrity of the container package over its lifetime. The DE protocol contains three main steps: initial container examination, helium (He) leak testing, and detailed imaging and analysis of the inner container closure weld region (ICCWR). The ICCWR has been determined to be bounding, defined as exhibiting worst case conditions for stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of the inner container. To assess SCC in the ICCWR, the inner container lid is cut into quarters and the weld and He-leak testing gasket are removed. Then a citric acid wash is performed to remove adherent chlorides from the ICCWR. The wash is then sent for analysis to determine the concentration of chlorides in the ICCWR. While the analysis for chloride concentration is being performed, the quarter sections are further sectioned into 1/8th subsections by cutting each section in half. These subsections are washed using nitric acid to remove corrosion products. Then each subsection is imaged using a Wide Angle 3-D Measurement System (WAMS). After analysis of microscope images for potential SCC, additional imaging can be performed, including subsurface imaging. After review, a determination is made of whether the container integrity may potentially affect the safe storage of the material.

container↗

An examination of the precipitation behavior of proton irradiated dual phase 308L weldment filler materials

Voids, G phase particles, and Ni-Si rich clusters in proton irradiated dual phase 308L groove filler of a SA508–304 L dissimilar metal weldment are analyzed using advanced characterization techniques. These weldments are often used in light water nuclear reactors and are subject to enhanced corrosion and associated stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Radiation damage is known to accelerate SCC. Ni-Si enriched clusters were observed in proton irradiated γ austenite, while G phase M 6 Ni 16 Si 7 (where M transition metal element) precipitates were observed in proton irradiated δ ferrite. Compositional analysis of the G phase precipitates and Ni-Si clusters from STEM-EDS and APT are compared. Unlike G phase particles in proton irradiated δ ferrite, Ni-Si clusters in proton irradiated γ austenite are not rich in Mn. Both STEM-EDS and APT line-scan profiles of the Ni-Si clusters show that the Fe and Cr concentration gradient between matrix γ austenite and the Ni-Si clusters is not as sharp as those between matrix δ ferrite and G phase. Further, HR-STEM imaging indicates that the lattice parameter of the Ni-Si clusters is commensurate with γ austenite and the clusters do not represent the precipitation of a second phase. Finally, our analysis demonstrates the density and volume fraction of G phase particles and the density of voids scales with proton irradiation damage and the energy to recoils.

308L groove filler↗

Deformation band corrosion as a result of applied stress and cold-work in 304 stainless steel in simulated pressurized water reactor primary water conditions

Stainless steels like 304SS are commonly used in pressurized water reactor primary water environments due to their excellent resistance to stress corrosion cracking (SCC). However, SCC susceptibility has been observed in cold-worked 304SS. Cold-rolling introduces a high density of defects, such as deformation bands or dislocations, into the microstructure; applied stress, even if macroscopically below the yield stress, can result in regions with high localized stresses. Cold-worked and non-cold-worked samples were exposed to 360 °C simulated PWR primary water for 1500 h with and without active loading. Corrosion susceptibility of dislocations and deformation bands induced by cold-rolling and/or applied stress was studied using high-resolution (analytical) transmission electron microscopy. Deformation bands were generated in all specimens examined in the study. Penetrative oxidation was observed in some deformation bands in each specimen. The depth of penetrative deformation band oxidation frequently exceeded the depth of grain boundary oxidation in all specimens. However, deformation band oxides generally were narrowly confined to the deformation band plane. Highly Ni-rich regions were observed beyond all oxidation fronts. Surface oxides were thicker in the specimens exposed under active loading. In conclusion, the implications of these findings at surfaces for deformation bands intersecting stress corrosion crack paths are discussed.

EFTEM↗

Nonlinear Interface Reduction for Time-Domain Analysis of Hurty/Craig-Bampton Superelements with Frictional Contact

Virtual prototyping in engineering design relies today on modern numerical models of contacting structures with accurate resolution of interface mechanics, which strongly affect the system-level stiffness and energy dissipation due to frictional losses. High-fidelity modeling within the localized interfaces is required to resolve local quantities of interest that may drive design decisions. The high-resolution finite element meshes necessary to resolve inter-component stresses tend to be computationally expensive, particularly when the analyst is interested in response time histories. The Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) transformation is a widely used method in structural dynamics for reducing the interior portion of a finite element model while having the ability to retain all nonlinear contact degrees of freedom (DOF) in physical coordinates. These models may still require many DOF to adequately resolve the kinematics of the interface, leading to inadequate reduction and computational savings. This study proposes a novel interface reduction method to overcome these challenges by means of system-level characteristic constraint (SCC) modes and properly orthogonal interface modal derivatives (POIMDs) for transient dynamic analyses. Both SCC modes and POIMDs are computed using the reduced HCB mass and stiffness matrices, which can be directly computed from many commercial finite element analysis software. Comparison of time history responses to an impulse-type load in a mechanical beam assembly indicate that the interface-reduced model correlates well with the HCB truth model. Localized features like slip and contact area are well-represented in the time domain when the beam assembly is loaded with a broadband excitation. The proposed method also yields reduced-order models with greater critical timestep lengths for explicit integration schemes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Shadow Molecular Dynamics and Atomic Cluster Expansions for Flexible Charge Models

Here, a shadow molecular dynamics scheme for flexible charge models is presented where the shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential is derived from a coarse-grained approximation of range-separated density functional theory. The interatomic potential, including the atomic electronegativities and the charge-independent short-range part of the potential and force terms, is modeled by the linear atomic cluster expansion (ACE), which provides a computationally efficient alternative to many machine learning methods. The shadow molecular dynamics scheme is based on extended Lagrangian (XL) Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD). XL-BOMD provides stable dynamics while avoiding the costly computational overhead associated with solving an all-to-all system of equations, which normally is required to determine the relaxed electronic ground state prior to each force evaluation. To demonstrate the proposed shadow molecular dynamics scheme for flexible charge models using atomic cluster expansion, we emulate the dynamics generated from self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding (SCC-DFTB) theory using a second-order charge equilibration (QEq) model. The charge-independent potentials and electronegativities of the QEq model are trained for a supercell of uranium oxide (UO 2 ) and a molecular system of liquid water. The combined ACE+XL-QEq molecular dynamics simulations are stable over a wide range of temperatures both for the oxide and for the molecular systems and provide a precise sampling of the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surfaces. Accurate ground Coulomb energies are produced by the ACE-based electronegativity model during an NVE simulation of UO 2 , predicted to be within 1 meV of those from SCC-DFTB on average during comparable simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A near-term to net zero alternative to the social cost of carbon for setting carbon prices

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is commonly described and used as the optimal CO 2 price. However, the wide range of SCC estimates provides limited practical assistance to policymakers setting specific CO 2 prices. In this study we describe an alternate near-term to net zero (NT2NZ) approach, estimating CO 2 prices needed in the near term for consistency with a net-zero CO 2 emissions target. This approach dovetails with the emissions-target-focused approach that frames climate policy discussions around the world, avoids uncertainties in estimates of climate damages and long-term decarbonization costs, offers transparency about sensitivities and enables the consideration of CO 2 prices alongside a portfolio of policies. We estimate illustrative NT2NZ CO 2 prices for the United States; for a 2050 net-zero CO 2 emission target, prices are US $ \$34$ to US $ \$64$ per metric ton in 2025 and US $ \$77$ to US $ \$124$ in 2030. These results are most influenced by assumptions about complementary policies and oil prices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗