Cognitive signal processing
Unsupervised signal pattern recognition - computer simulation of noisy signal pattern format, and construction of asymptotic Bayes decision boundary form
BAYESIAN STATISTICS↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “STATISTICAL DECISION THEORY”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Rule groupings in expert systems using nearest neighbour decision rules, and convex hulls
Expert System shells are lacking in many areas of software engineering. Large rule based systems are not semantically comprehensible, difficult to debug, and impossible to modify or validate. Partitioning a set of rules found in CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) into groups of rules which reflect the underlying semantic subdomains of the problem, will address adequately the concerns stated above. Techniques are introduced to structure a CLIPS rule base into groups of rules that inherently have common semantic information. The concepts involved are imported from the field of A.I., Pattern Recognition, and Statistical Inference. Techniques focus on the areas of feature selection, classification, and a criteria of how 'good' the classification technique is, based on Bayesian Decision Theory. A variety of distance metrics are discussed for measuring the 'closeness' of CLIPS rules and various Nearest Neighbor classification algorithms are described based on the above metric.
Anastasiadis, Stergios↗
The footprints of visual attention in the Posner cueing paradigm revealed by classification images
In the Posner cueing paradigm, observers' performance in detecting a target is typically better in trials in which the target is present at the cued location than in trials in which the target appears at the uncued location. This effect can be explained in terms of a Bayesian observer where visual attention simply weights the information differently at the cued (attended) and uncued (unattended) locations without a change in the quality of processing at each location. Alternatively, it could also be explained in terms of visual attention changing the shape of the perceptual filter at the cued location. In this study, we use the classification image technique to compare the human perceptual filters at the cued and uncued locations in a contrast discrimination task. We did not find statistically significant differences between the shapes of the inferred perceptual filters across the two locations, nor did the observed differences account for the measured cueing effects in human observers. Instead, we found a difference in the magnitude of the classification images, supporting the idea that visual attention changes the weighting of information at the cued and uncued location, but does not change the quality of processing at each individual location.
Non-NASA Center↗
A Manual Control Test for the Detection and Deterrence of Impaired Drivers
A brief manual control test and a decision strategy were developed, laboratory tested, and field validated which provide a means for detecting human operator impairment from alcohol or other drugs. The test requires the operator to stabilize progressively unstable controlled element dynamics. Control theory and experimental data verify that the human operator's control ability on this task is constrained by basic cybernetic characteristics, and that task performance is reliably affected by impairment effects on these characteristics. Assessment of human operator control ability is determined by a statistically based decision strategy. The operator is allowed several chances to exceed a preset pass criterion. Procedures are described for setting the pass criterion based on individual ability and a desired unimpaired failure rate. These procedures were field tested with apparatus installed in automobiles that were designed to discourage drunk drivers from operating their vehicles. This test program demonstrated that the control task and detection strategy could be applied in a practical setting to screen human operators for impairment in their basic cybernetic skills.
Stein, A. C.↗
Physics through the 1990s: Elementary-particle physics
The volume begins with a non-mathematical discussion of the motivation behind, and basic ideas of, elementary-particle physics theory and experiment. The progress over the past two decades with the quark model and unification of the electromagnetic and weak interactions is reviewed. Existing theoretical problems in the field, such as the origin of mass and the unification of the fundamental forces, are detailed, along with experimental programs to test the new theories. Accelerators, instrumentation, and detectors are described for both current and future facilities. Interactions with other areas of both theoretical and applied physics are presented. The sociology of the field is examined regarding the education of graduate students, the organization necessary in large-scale experiments, and the decision-making process involved in high-cost experiments. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for maintaining US excellence in theory and experiment are given. Appendices list both current and planned accelerators, and present statistical data on the US elementary-particle physics program. A glossary is included.
Source record↗
Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland
An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for
ozone↗
Measuring uncertainty by extracting fuzzy rules using rough sets
Despite the advancements in the computer industry in the past 30 years, there is still one major deficiency. Computers are not designed to handle terms where uncertainty is present. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic must be developed. The methods are examined of statistical analysis, the Dempster-Shafer theory, rough set theory, and fuzzy set theory to solve this problem. The fundamentals of these theories are combined to possibly provide the optimal solution. By incorporating principles from these theories, a decision making process may be simulated by extracting two sets of fuzzy rules: certain rules and possible rules. From these rules a corresponding measure of how much these rules is believed is constructed. From this, the idea of how much a fuzzy diagnosis is definable in terms of a set of fuzzy attributes is studied.
Worm, Jeffrey A.↗
Measuring uncertainty by extracting fuzzy rules using rough sets and extracting fuzzy rules under uncertainty and measuring definability using rough sets
Computers are not designed to handle terms where uncertainty is present. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic must be developed. This paper examines the concepts of statistical analysis, the Dempster-Shafer theory, rough set theory, and fuzzy set theory to solve this problem. The fundamentals of these theories are combined to provide the possible optimal solution. By incorporating principles from these theories, a decision-making process may be simulated by extracting two sets of fuzzy rules: certain rules and possible rules. From these rules a corresponding measure of how much we believe these rules is constructed. From this, the idea of how much a fuzzy diagnosis is definable in terms of its fuzzy attributes is studied.
Worm, Jeffrey A.↗
Certain and possible rules for decision making using rough set theory extended to fuzzy sets
Uncertainty may be caused by the ambiguity in the terms used to describe a specific situation. It may also be caused by skepticism of rules used to describe a course of action or by missing and/or erroneous data. To deal with uncertainty, techniques other than classical logic need to be developed. Although, statistics may be the best tool available for handling likelihood, it is not always adequate for dealing with knowledge acquisition under uncertainty. Inadequacies caused by estimating probabilities in statistical processes can be alleviated through use of the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Fuzzy set theory is another tool used to deal with uncertainty where ambiguous terms are present. Other methods include rough sets, the theory of endorsements and nonmonotonic logic. J. Grzymala-Busse has defined the concept of lower and upper approximation of a (crisp) set and has used that concept to extract rules from a set of examples. We will define the fuzzy analogs of lower and upper approximations and use these to obtain certain and possible rules from a set of examples where the data is fuzzy. Central to these concepts will be the idea of the degree to which a fuzzy set A is contained in another fuzzy set B, and the degree of intersection of a set A with set B. These concepts will also give meaning to the statement; A implies B. The two meanings will be: (1) if x is certainly in A then it is certainly in B, and (2) if x is possibly in A then it is possibly in B. Next, classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification will be looked at and it will be shown that if a classification is well externally definable then it is well internally definable, and if it is poorly externally definable then it is poorly internally definable, thus generalizing a result of Grzymala-Busse. Finally, some ideas of how to define consensus and group options to form clusters of rules will be given.
Dekorvin, Andre↗
Prediction analysis and management decisions.
Prediction analysis techniques /PAT/ using statistical methods, computers, error analysis, etc, for system weight, performance and other parameter predictions in Apollo program
PROGRAM MANAGEMENT↗
Development and optimization of a nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator
A systematic method is proposed for the development, optimization, and comparison of controller-models for the human operator. This is suitable for any designed model, even multiparameter systems. A random search technique is chosen for the parameter optimization. As valuation criteria for the quality of the model development the criterion function - the comparison between the input and output functions of the human operator and those of the model - and the most important characteristic values and functions of the statistical signal theory are used. A nonlinear multiparameter model for the human operator is being designed which considers the complex input information rate per time in a single display. The nonlinear features of the model are effected by a modified threshold element and a decision algorithm. Different display-configurations as well as various transfer functions of the controlled element are explained by different optimized parameter-combinations.
Johannsen, G.↗
Parallel Consensual Neural Networks
A new neural network architecture is proposed and applied in classification of remote sensing/geographic data from multiple sources. The new architecture is called the parallel consensual neural network and its relation to hierarchical and ensemble neural networks is discussed. The parallel consensual neural network architecture is based on statistical consensus theory. The input data are transformed several times and the different transformed data are applied as if they were independent inputs and are classified using stage neural networks. Finally, the outputs from the stage networks are then weighted and combined to make a decision. Experimental results based on remote sensing data and geographic data are given. The performance of the consensual neural network architecture is compared to that of a two-layer (one hidden layer) conjugate-gradient backpropagation neural network. The results with the proposed neural network architecture compare favorably in terms of classification accuracy to the backpropagation method.
Benediktsson, J. A.↗
Some sequential, distribution-free pattern classification procedures with applications
Some sequential, distribution-free pattern classification techniques are presented. The decision problem to which the proposed classification methods are applied is that of discriminating between two kinds of electroencephalogram responses recorded from a human subject: spontaneous EEG and EEG driven by a stroboscopic light stimulus at the alpha frequency. The classification procedures proposed make use of the theory of order statistics. Estimates of the probabilities of misclassification are given. The procedures were tested on Gaussian samples and the EEG responses.
Poage, J. L.↗
A consensual neural network
A neural network architecture called a consensual neural network (CNN) is proposed for the classification of data from multiple sources. Its relation to hierarchical and ensemble neural networks is discussed. CNN is based on the statistical consensus theory and uses nonlinearly transformed input data. The input data are transformed several times, and the different transformed data are applied as if they were independent inputs. The independent inputs are classified using stage neural networks and outputs from the stage networks are then weighted and combined to make a decision. Experimental results based on remote-sensing data and geographic data are given.
Benediktsson, J. A.↗
Optimal experimental design: Formulations and computations
Questions of ‘how best to acquire data’ are essential to modelling and prediction in the natural and social sciences, engineering applications, and beyond. Optimal experimental design (OED) formalizes these questions and creates computational methods to answer them. This article presents a systematic survey of modern OED, from its foundations in classical design theory to current research involving OED for complex models. We begin by reviewing criteria used to formulate an OED problem and thus to encode the goal of performing an experiment. We emphasize the flexibility of the Bayesian and decision-theoretic approach, which encompasses information-based criteria that are well-suited to nonlinear and non-Gaussian statistical models. We then discuss methods for estimating or bounding the values of these design criteria; this endeavour can be quite challenging due to strong nonlinearities, high parameter dimension, large per-sample costs, or settings where the model is implicit. A complementary set of computational issues involves optimization methods used to find a design; we discuss such methods in the discrete (combinatorial) setting of observation selection and in settings where an exact design can be continuously parametrized. Finally we present emerging methods for sequential OED that build non-myopic design policies, rather than explicit designs; these methods naturally adapt to the outcomes of past experiments in proposing new experiments, while seeking coordination among all experiments to be performed. Throughout, we highlight important open questions and challenges.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
On the measurement of precipitation frequencies by passive microwave radiometery
Over most of the microwave spectrum, raindrops both absorb and scatter radiation producing large changes in brightness temperatures relative to clear or cloudy conditions. Since the structure of rain varies substantially for different rain rates and climatological backgrounds, the raindrop size distribution, the rain layer thickness and the ice clouds above the rain layer are all important inputs to the model computations. The subsequent modeling involves applying the Mie theory to derive the absorption and scattering effects and the radiative transfer calculation is based upon a variational iterative approach which takes account of the multiple scattering effect of the rain layer. Results over both ocean and land backgrounds are demonstrated. It is also demonstrated that by using discrimination tests of the radiometric data, the rain/no rain decision can be made and the rainfall rate can be retrieved from a statistical inversion technique.
Kidder, S. Q.↗
Statistical Engineering
This webinar provides an overview of the International Statistical Engineering Association (ISEA), and it illustrates the practice of statistical engineering at NASA. ISEA was formed to promote the study of how successful data-based problem-solving methods are leveraged to realize innovative opportunities and solve problems sustainably. ISEA is comprised of statisticians, engineers, scientists, and other professionals that exchange ideas and experiences in the development and application of statistical engineering theories. ISEA is building the body of knowledge of the statistical engineering discipline with a particular focus on improving academic preparation for tackling complex problems. Over the past 15 years, the practice of statistical engineering has gained recognition within NASA by spurring innovation and efficiency, and it has demonstrated significant impact. Aerospace research and development benefits from an application-focused statistical engineering perspective to accelerate learning, maximize knowledge, ensure strategic resource investment, and inform data-driven decisions. The second portion of this presentation provides an overview of infusing statistical engineering at NASA through pioneering case studies in aeronautics, space exploration, and atmospheric science.
Peter A Parker↗
An investigation of transitional management problems for the NSTS at NASA, executive summary
A summary is given of the work of the University of Houston research team for the third quarter of effort in a yearly grant for the National Space Transportation System (NSTS). As such it serves as a resting place for the ideas and concepts developed this quarter with the collaboration of the Management Integration Offices of NASA. Another objective is the hope that the report will help to stimulate the healthy problem solving process already present at NASA. The main goal of the contractual work is to help NASA to find ways and means of moving into a truly operational era with the shuttle program. This work is a continuation of early work and the reader is encouraged to read the final reports of earlier years. Chapter One of the report is an introduction. Chapter Two deals with industrial adaptation and is in two parts: theory and application. In the theory section, impressions of the management system immediately after reflight are discussed. A key issue, in the author's opinion is the seeming lack of purpose of the program. The application section has six appendices: 1988 Demographic Survey, Field Notes of Interview with HL/P South Texas Nuclear Project, a comparison of the Agendas of the current manager with that of a previous manager, a note on compartmentalization to assist in manifesting, a study on launch prediction for STS-26, and a discussion of a statistical decision-making course for upper level managers. Chapter Three deals with theoretical results returned on flow shop scheduling which will be of use downstream. Chapter Four deals with a statistical model developed to predict the flight rate in future years and indicates the program will have trouble making its schedule. Chapter Five covers the constructural effort and shows the work to be on schedule.
Hunsucker, John↗