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At least 55 records · Page 3

On reading Youden: Learning about the practice of statistics and applied statistical research from a master applied statistician

From reading William John “Jack” Youden’s books and articles, Youden (1900-1971), an analytical chemist, becomes an applied statistician by the time he joins the National Bureau of Standards (NBS) in 1948. Here, this article traces his transition from chemist to applied statistician and what his body of work mostly at NBS (1948-1965) demonstrates about his practice of statistics and the role that applied statistical research plays in it. There is much we can learn from a master applied statistician.

42 ENGINEERING↗

STATISTICS OF SATELLITE GALAXIES AROUND MILKY-WAY-LIKE HOSTS

We calculate the probability that a Milky-Way (MW)-like halo in the standard cosmological model has the observed number of Magellanic Clouds (MCs). The statistics of the number of MCs in the lambda cold dark matter model are in good agreement with observations of a large sample of Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxies. Under the subhalo abundance matching assumption of a relationship with small scatter between galaxy r-band luminosities and halo internal velocities v{sub max}, we make detailed comparisons to similar measurements using SDSS Data Release 7 data by Liu et al. Models and observational data give very similar probabilities for having zero, one, and two MC-like satellites. In both cases, MW luminosity hosts have just a {approx}10% chance of hosting two satellites similar to the MCs. In addition, we present a prediction for the probability for a host galaxy to have N{sub sats} satellite galaxies as a function of the magnitudes of both the host and satellite. This probability and its scaling with host properties is significantly different from that of mass-selected objects because of scatter in the mass-luminosity relation and because of variations in the star formation efficiency with halo mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO RECOGNIZING SOURCE CLASSES FOR UNASSOCIATED SOURCES IN THE FIRST FERMI-LAT CATALOG

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) First Source Catalog (1FGL) provided spatial, spectral, and temporal properties for a large number of {gamma}-ray sources using a uniform analysis method. After correlating with the most-complete catalogs of source types known to emit {gamma} rays, 630 of these sources are 'unassociated' (i.e., have no obvious counterparts at other wavelengths). Here, we employ two statistical analyses of the primary {gamma}-ray characteristics for these unassociated sources in an effort to correlate their {gamma}-ray properties with the active galactic nucleus (AGN) and pulsar populations in 1FGL. Based on the correlation results, we classify 221 AGN-like and 134 pulsar-like sources in the 1FGL unassociated sources. The results of these source 'classifications' appear to match the expected source distributions, especially at high Galactic latitudes. While useful for planning future multiwavelength follow-up observations, these analyses use limited inputs, and their predictions should not be considered equivalent to 'probable source classes' for these sources. We discuss multiwavelength results and catalog cross-correlations to date, and provide new source associations for 229 Fermi-LAT sources that had no association listed in the 1FGL catalog. By validating the source classifications against these new associations, we find that the new association matches the predicted source class in {approx}80% of the sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the statistics of biased tracers in the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structures

With the completion of the Planck mission, in order to continue to gather cosmological information it has become crucial to understand the Large Scale Structures (LSS) of the universe to percent accuracy. The Effective Field Theory of LSS (EFTofLSS) is a novel theoretical framework that aims to develop an analytic understanding of LSS at long distances, where inhomogeneities are small. We further develop the description of biased tracers in the EFTofLSS to account for the effect of baryonic physics and primordial non-Gaussianities, finding that new bias coefficients are required. Then, restricting to dark matter with Gaussian initial conditions, we describe the prediction of the EFTofLSS for the one-loop halo-halo and halo-matter two-point functions, and for the tree-level halo-halo-halo, matter-halo-halo and matter-matter-halo three-point functions. Several new bias coefficients are needed in the EFTofLSS, even though their contribution at a given order can be degenerate and the same parameters contribute to multiple observables. We develop a method to reduce the number of biases to an irreducible basis, and find that, at the order at which we work, seven bias parameters are enough to describe this extremely rich set of statistics. We then compare with the output of an N-body simulation where the normalization parameter of the linear power spectrum is set to σ 8 = 0.9. For the lowest mass bin, we find percent level agreement up to k ≃ 0.3 h Mpc –1 for the one-loop two-point functions, and up to k ≃ 0.15 h Mpc –1 for the tree-level three-point functions, with the k-reach decreasing with higher mass bins. In conclusion, this is consistent with the theoretical estimates, and suggests that the cosmological information in LSS amenable to analytical control is much more than previously believed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability. Part 1: Retrieved cloud liquid water path at three ARM sites: Observed cloud variability at ARM sites

Statistical characteristics of cloud variability are examined for their dependence on averaging scales and best representation of probability density function with the decade-long retrieval products of cloud liquid water path (LWP) from the tropical western Pacific (TWP), Southern Great Plains (SGP), and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) sites of the Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program. The statistical moments of LWP show some seasonal variation at the SGP and NSA sites but not much at the TWP site. It is found that the standard deviation, relative dispersion (the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean), and skewness all quickly increase with the averaging window size when the window size is small and become more or less flat when the window size exceeds 12 h. On average, the cloud LWP at the TWP site has the largest values of standard deviation, relative dispersion, and skewness, whereas the NSA site exhibits the least. Correlation analysis shows that there is a positive correlation between the mean LWP and the standard deviation. The skewness is found to be closely related to the relative dispersion with a correlation coefficient of 0.6. The comparison further shows that the log normal, Weibull, and gamma distributions reasonably explain the observed relationship between skewness and relative dispersion over a wide range of scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-Level Reverse Intersystem Crossing and Molecular Rigidity Improve Spin Statistics for Triplet–Triplet Annihilation Upconversion

The structural factors affecting triplet−triplet annihilation (TTA) at the molecular level are not well-understood. Here, our steady-state photoluminescence and transient absorption results demonstrate that the spin statistical factor, η, decreases from 0.60 to 0.46 and 0.14 going from 9,10-diphenylanthracene (DPA) to the 1,5-DPA and 2,6-DPA isomers, respectively, during photon upconversion with a platinum octaethylporphyrin sensitizer. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that η depends on the energetics of hot triplet states and molecular rigidity. The significantly high conical intersection energy between the S 0 and T 1 states for 9,10-DPA gives its longer triplet lifetime. Time-dependent DFT calculations show that 9,10-DPA and 1,5-DPA can undergo high-level reverse intersystem crossing from their T 2 and T 3 states, respectively, to the bright S 1 state, increasing the limit of the spin statistical factor. Both factors ultimately serve to enhance the TTA efficiency. Furthermore, this work provides insight into designing molecules for efficient light-emitting and photon upconversion applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The statistical properties of Klein-Gordon oscillator in noncommutative space

We study the relativistic spin-zero bosons influenced by the Klein-Gordon oscillator and an external magnetic field in noncommutative formulation. The problem is considered in two dimensions and is solved in an exact analytical manner. Having found the spectrum of the system, the statistical properties of an N-boson system are reported.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High-statistics study of $K^0_S$ pair production in two-photon collisions

We report a high-statistics measurement of the differential cross section of the process $γγ → K^0_S K^0_S$ in the range 1.05 GeV $≤ W ≤$ 4.00 GeV, where $W$ is the center-of-mass energy of the colliding photons, using 972 fb -1 of data collected with the Belle detector at the $KEKB$ asymmetric-energy $e^+ e^-$ collider operated at and near the $Υ$-resonance region. The differential cross section is fitted by parameterized S-, D 0 - , D 2 - , G 0 - and G 2 -wave amplitudes. In the D 2 wave, the $f_2$(1270), $a_2$(1320) and $f^\prime_2$(1525) are dominant and a resonance, the $f_2$(2200), is also present. The $f_0$(1710) and possibly the $f_0$(2500) are seen in the $S$ wave. The mass, total width and product of the two-photon partial decay width and decay branching fraction to the $K\overline{K}$ state $Γ_{γγ}(ΒK\overline{K})$ are extracted for the $f^\prime_2$(1525), $f_0$(1710), $f_2$(2200) and $f_0$(2500). The destructive interference between the $f_2$(1270) and $a_2$(1320) is confirmed by measuring their relative phase. The parameters of the charmonium states $Χ_{c0}$ and $Χ_{c2}$ are updated. Possible contributions from the $Χ_{c0}(2P)$ and $Χ_{c2}(2P)$ states are discussed. A new upper limit for the branching fraction of the $P-$ and $CP-$violating decay channel $η_c → K^0_S K^0_S$ is reported. The detailed behavior of the cross section is updated and compared with $QCD$-based calculations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Statistical Analysis of the Economic Drivers of Battery Energy Storage in Commercial Buildings: Preprint

There is significant interest in using battery energy storage systems (BESS) to reduce peak demand charges, and therefore the life cycle cost of electricity, in commercial buildings. This paper explores the drivers of economic viability of BESS in commercial buildings through statistical analysis. A sample population of buildings was generated, a techno-economic optimization model was used to size and dispatch the BESS, and the resulting optimal BESS sizes were analyzed for relevant predictor variables. Explanatory regression analyses were used to demonstrate that peak demand charges are the most significant predictor of an economically viable battery, and that the shape of the load profile is the most significant predictor of the size of the battery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Quantitative Evaluation of MD/HD Vehicle Electrification using Statistical Data

This paper presents a wide-ranging analysis of Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrification by means of developing a framework tool which uses a quantitative method of estimating electric vehicle energy consumption and appropriate charging considerations. The Fleet DNA composite statistics on real-world driving behavior is used to evaluate feasible or market-ready battery electric vehicle (BEV) technologies in medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) applications. In the paper, ten representative Class 3-8 commercial vehicle electrifications have been evaluated as a function of various service coverages, including applications in port drayage tractors, refuse trucks, delivery trucks, buses, and bucket trucks. The results indicate significant energy savings and fuel cost savings across all MD/HD vehicle electrifications. The majority of MD BEVs, with the exception of Class 3 bucket trucks, achieve better than a 5-year payback with 50–75% service coverage. For HD BEVs, with the exception of the Class 8 port drayage tractors, the 90% service coverage results in a 10-year or longer payback time, while the 50% service coverage yields a 7–8 year payback. Class 8 port drayage tractors should achieve payback in no more than a 3.5 years with 50–75% service coverage. Thus, the analysis indicates a highly feasible potential for Class 3-6 MD vehicles to be electrified, and feasible opportunities for electrification in Class 7-8 HD short-distance applications.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Statistical mechanics and pressure of composite multimoded weakly nonlinear optical systems

Statistical mechanics can provide a versatile theoretical framework for investigating the collective dynamics of weakly nonlinear-wave settings that can be utterly complex to describe otherwise. In optics, composite systems arise due to interactions between different frequencies and polarizations. The purpose of this work is to develop a thermodynamic theory that takes into account the synergistic action of multiple components. We find that the type of the nonlinearity involved can have important implications in the thermalization process and, hence, can lead to different thermal equilibrium conditions. Importantly, we derive closed-form expressions for the actual optomechanical pressure that is exerted on the system. In particular, the total optomechanical pressure is the sum of the partial pressures due to each component. Our results can be applied to a variety of weakly nonlinear optical settings such as multimode fibers, bulk waveguides, photonic lattices, and coupled microresonators. We present two specific examples, where two colors interact in a one-waveguide array with either a cubic or quadratic nonlinearity.

Efremidis, Nikolaos K. (ORCID:0000000298300268)↗

Improvement of vertical velocity statistics measured by a Doppler lidar through comparison with sonic anemometer observations

Since turbulence measurements from Doppler lidars are being increasingly used within wind energy and boundary-layer meteorology, it is important to assess and improve the accuracy of these observations. While turbulent quantities are measured by Doppler lidars in several different ways, the simplest and most frequently used statistic is vertical velocity variance ( w ' 2 ) from zenith stares. But, the competing effects of signal noise and resolution volume limitations, which respectively increase and decrease w ' 2 , reduce the accuracy of these measurements. Herein, an established method that utilises the autocovariance of the signal to remove noise is evaluated and its skill in correcting for volume-averaging effects in the calculation of w ' 2 is also assessed. In addition, this autocovariance technique is further refined by defining the amount of lag time to use for the most accurate estimates of w ' 2 . And through comparison of observations from two Doppler lidars and sonic anemometers on a 300 m tower, the autocovariance technique is shown to generally improve estimates of w ' 2 . After the autocovariance technique is applied, values of w ' 2 from the Doppler lidars are generally in close agreement ( R 2 ≈ 0.95 -0.98) with those calculated from sonic anemometer measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Some new results on the statistics of radio wave scintillation. I - Empirical evidence for Gaussian statistics

This paper presents an analysis of ionospheric scintillation data which shows that the underlying statistical structure of the signal can be accurately modeled by the additive complex Gaussian perturbation predicted by the Born approximation in conjunction with an application of the central limit theorem. By making use of this fact, it is possible to estimate the in-phase, phase quadrature, and cophased scattered power by curve fitting to measured intensity histograms. By using this procedure, it is found that typically more than 80% of the scattered power is in phase quadrature with the undeviated signal component. Thus, the signal is modeled by a Gaussian, but highly non-Rician process. From simultaneous UHF and VHF data, only a weak dependence of this statistical structure on changes in the Fresnel radius is deduced. The signal variance is found to have a nonquadratic wavelength dependence. It is hypothesized that this latter effect is a subtle manifestation of locally homogeneous irregularity structures, a mathematical model proposed by Kolmogorov (1941) in his early studies of incompressible fluid turbulence.

Rino, C. L.↗

Median statistics estimate of the galactic rotational velocity

We compile a complete collection of 18 recent (from 2000 to 2017) measurements of Θ 0 , the rotational velocity of the Milky Way at R 0 (the radial distance of the Sun from the Galactic center). These measurements use tracers that are believed to more accurately reflect the systematic rotation of the Milky Way. Unlike other recent compilations of Θ 0 , our collection includes only independent measurements. We find that these 18 measurements are distributed in a mildly non-Gaussian fashion and a median statistics estimate indicates Θ 0 = 220 ± 10 kms –1 (2σ error) as the most reliable summary, at R 0 = 8.0 ± 0.3 kpc (2σ error).

(cosmology:) cosmological parameters↗