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At least 55 records · Page 3

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Subsurface fluvial sediments beneath InSight on Mars from geophysical constraints

Subsurface structure investigation on Mars is crucial for understanding its geological evolution and past hydrological conditions. Elysium Planitia (EP), located near the hypothesized ancient ocean shorelines, could contain clues for past water activity and paleoclimate. Here we present better-constrained subsurface models beneath InSight extending to ~800 m depth, obtained from joint inversion of seismic and seismoacoustic coupling data, and use the well-resolved subsurface structure to explore the lithological profile through rock physics models. The derived subsurface lithology agrees well with local geological context and exhibits a shallow 60-m-thick low-rigidity layer consistent with hydrated sedimentary materials. Despite possible contributions of aeolian and volcanic deposits, we favor the interpretation that the low-rigidity layer originated from fluvial activity in EP during the Hesperian or Hesperian-to-Amazonian epoch, as supported by adjacent paleo-shoreline morphology observations. These results hint at a period of warmer paleoclimate at low latitudes, possibly during high-obliquity phases of Mars’ rotational axis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification

We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Analysis and optimization of seismic monitoring networks with Bayesian optimal experimental design

SUMMARY Monitoring networks increasingly aim to assimilate data from a large number of diverse sensors covering many sensing modalities. Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED) seeks to identify data, sensor configurations or experiments which can optimally reduce uncertainty and hence increase the performance of a monitoring network. Information theory guides OED by formulating the choice of experiment or sensor placement as an optimization problem that maximizes the expected information gain (EIG) about quantities of interest given prior knowledge and models of expected observation data. Therefore, within the context of seismo-acoustic monitoring, we can use Bayesian OED to configure sensor networks by choosing sensor locations, types and fidelity in order to improve our ability to identify and locate seismic sources. In this work, we develop the framework necessary to use Bayesian OED to optimize a sensor network’s ability to locate seismic events from arrival time data of detected seismic phases at the regional-scale. This framework requires five elements: (i) A likelihood function that describes the distribution of detection and traveltime data from the sensor network, (ii) A prior distribution that describes a priori belief about seismic events, (iii) A Bayesian solver that uses a prior and likelihood to identify the posterior distribution of seismic events given the data, (iv) An algorithm to compute EIG about seismic events over a data set of hypothetical prior events, (v) An optimizer that finds a sensor network which maximizes EIG. Once we have developed this framework, we explore many relevant questions to monitoring such as: how to trade off sensor fidelity and earth model uncertainty; how sensor types, number and locations influence uncertainty; and how prior models and constraints influence sensor placement.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

LATTE: open-source, high-performance traveltime computation, tomography and source location in acoustic and elastic media

Traveltime-based tomography and source location are fundamental approaches for imaging subsurface structures and understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of seismicity from local to global scales. We present an open-source, high-performance framework integrating eikonal equation solvers and adjoint-state theory for traveltime computation, velocity tomography, source location and joint tomography-location in 2-D/3-D acoustic and elastic media. We introduce novel regularization schemes based on total generalized p-variation, structural similarity and multitask machine learning to enhance the fidelity and interpretability of inverted models and source locations. Key features of our implementation also include the ability to leverage both absolute-difference and double-difference traveltime misfits for high-fidelity velocity tomography and source parameter estimation; support for traveltime computation and inversion in diverse 2-D/3-D scenarios with arbitrary source and receiver distributions; and a perturbation-based optimal step-size estimation method to reduce computational costs. In addition, our implementation employs shared-memory and distributed-memory parallelization to provide an efficient solution for traveltime computation, tomography, and source location. In conclusion, we validate the efficacy and accuracy of our approach through multiple synthetic data examples.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MTUQ: a framework for estimating moment tensors, point forces, and their uncertainties

SUMMARY We introduce MTUQ, an open-source Python package for seismic source estimation and uncertainty quantification, emphasizing flexibility and operational scalability. MTUQ provides MPI-parallelized grid search and global optimization capabilities, compatibility with 1-D and 3-D Green’s function database formats, customizable data processing, C-accelerated waveform and first-motion polarity misfit functions, and utilities for plotting seismic waveforms and visualizing misfit and likelihood surfaces. Applicability to a range of full- and constrained-moment tensor, point force, and centroid inversion problems is possible via a documented application programming interface, accompanied by example scripts and integration tests. We demonstrate the software using three different types of seismic events: (1) a 2009 intraslab earthquake near Anchorage, Alaska; (2) an episode of the 2021 Barry Arm landslide in Alaska; and (3) the 2017 Democratic People’s Republic of Korea underground nuclear test. With these events, we illustrate the well-known complementary character of body waves, surface waves, and polarities for constraining source parameters. We also convey the distinct misfit patterns that arise from each individual data type, the importance of uncertainty quantification for detecting multimodal or otherwise poorly constrained solutions, and the software’s flexible, modular design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bayesian event categorization matrix approach for explosion monitoring

Current efforts to correctly categorize natural events from suspected explosion sources with data that is collected by ground- or space-based sensors presents historical challenges that remain unaddressed by the Event Categorization Matrix (ECM) model. Smaller historical events (lower yield explosions) may have data available from fewer measurement techniques than are available today, and therefore, a historical event record can lack a complete set of discriminants. The covariance structures can also differ between such observations of event (source-type) categories. Both obstacles are problematic for the classic ECM model. Our work addresses this gap and presents a Bayesian update to the previous ECM model, termed the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, which can be trained on partial observations and does not rely on a pooled covariance structure. We further augment the ECM model with Bayesian Decision Theory so that false negative or false positive rates of an event categorization can be reduced in an intuitive manner. To demonstrate improved categorization rates for the Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix model, we compare an array of Bayesian and classic models with multiple performance metrics using Monte Carlo experiments. We use both synthetic and real data. Our Bayesian models show consistent gains in overall accuracy and lower false negative rates relative to the classic ECM model. Here, we propose future avenues to improve Bayesian Event Categorization Matrix models’ decision making and predictive capability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observations and seismoacoustic simulations of earthquake-generated infrasound waves in non-epicentral regions

We analysed infrasound waves associated with the Gyeongju earthquake (ML 5.8) that occurred on 2016 September 12, in the southeastern Korean Peninsula. For infrasound wave detection, the Progressive Multichannel Correlation method was applied to the infrasound data set recorded at seven arrays operating in South Korea at epicentral distances ranging from 178 to 472 km. Based on the back-projection method constrained by array-dependent celerity and azimuth deviation models, the source regions were identified in both the epicentral and non-epicentral regions. Remarkably, the non-epicentral secondary sources of this earthquake were located in regions with shallow water depths: (i) the western coastal area in the Yellow Sea and (ii) the shallow ocean basin and bank in the East Sea. The location results obtained from the earthquake could be corroborated through its foreshock (ML 5.1), yielding location results consistent with those of the main shock. The generation of infrasound waves over shallow water depths was fortuitously validated by direct recordings of dominant single-frequency (~0.3 Hz) infrasound waves at close range via temporary sensors near the ocean basin and bank. We interpreted that low-frequency infrasound signals could be generated from interactions among the ocean floor, shallow seawater and atmosphere. We performed numerical simulations of seismoacoustic fields to predict ground motions on the seafloor and acoustic transmission efficiency between the water and air interface. The simulations quantified the energy transfer through different media and clarified our observational results. We found that because this solid Earth‒water‒atmosphere coupled air wave has a relatively low frequency (~0.3 Hz), it can survive propagation over long distances compared with high-frequency infrasound waves generated in inland and mountain regions. In this study, we extend our understanding of water‒atmosphere coupling and the monitoring framework for earthquake-associated non-epicentral infrasound waves, encompassing not only inland ground shaking but also shallow sea regions located far from the epicentre.

Earthquake monitoring and test-ban treaty verifica↗

Estimating an airborne dipole source using 3-D wavefield simulations and seismic receivers on the ground

Acoustic signals can couple to the ground, providing an opportunity to use seismic stations to investigate airborne sources. The study of Bishop et al. used wavefield simulations in a fluid-solid medium to quantify the role of topography on the seismic (ground) recordings of a monopole source in the air. We build upon this study by linking wavefield forward modelling with the source estimation code MTUQ, which can accommodate point forces or moment tensors in a solid medium, as well as sources in the air (or water) if they are enabled by the forward-modelling solver. We perform a series of synthetic numerical experiments to demonstrate that a dipole airborne source can be estimated using ground-based receivers, even within the presence of realistic topography. We investigate the influence of receiver coverage, topography, and assumed source location on the estimated results. The established capabilities raise the prospects for future efforts to estimate dipole sources in 3-D models that include heterogeneity in the air and the earth in addition to topography.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data-informed grid refinement to improve traveltime accuracy in the regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model

The regional seismic traveltime (RSTT) model predicts traveltimes of regional seismic phases accounting for 3-D structure of the crust and the upper mantle on a global scale. Previous versions of the RSTT model have been implemented using nodes separated by ∼1° spacing across the globe. A regional-scale study using regional Pn and Pg traveltimes across Israel and the Middle East demonstrated that data driven, systematic grid refinement reduces traveltime residuals and enhances resolution of smaller tectonic features in regions having dense ray coverage. High density Pn ray coverage in the western US, Europe, Middle East and East Asia can likewise provide the resolution that allows systematic global grid refinement of the RSTT model. In this study, we use a large number of Pn ray paths originating from events located with an epicentral location uncertainty of 25 km (GT25) or better. We conduct targeted grid refinements at 1.0°, 0.5°, 0.25° and 0.125° on a global scale, producing a refined RSTT model that yields a 21.6 per cent reduction in median event location error in Europe and the Middle East, when compared with the original global RSTT model presented in Begnaud et al. The new model also resolves finer tectonic structures in regions with high Pn ray density.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine learning for seismic low-frequency extrapolation

The cycle-skipping problem that plagues full waveform inversion (FWI) can be at least partially mitigated if low frequencies (which encode the kinematics of wave propagation in seismic data) are recorded. However, seismic sources and receivers are band-limited, so seismic data does not generally include signals down to 0 Hz. To improve our ability to solve the seismic inverse problem, one can synthesize this missing low-frequency (LF) content from the recorded high-frequency (HF) data using machine learning (ML) models. Deep learning models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) demonstrate impressive ability to perform low frequency extrapolation. However, such models require powerful hardware (GPU machines) and careful training. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of three different ML models that do not require GPU machines, namely, random forest, Gaussian process regression and gradient boosting, on both synthetic and real data. Experimental results on two synthetic data sets (generated from a low velocity lens embedded in a homogeneous medium, and the Marmousi model) demonstrate that FWI applied to the extrapolated data consistently improves inversion accuracy relative to FWI applied to the original data sets that do not contain low frequencies. Application of low-frequency extrapolation to real data from the Northwest Shelf of Australia demonstrates that tree-based ML models such as gradient boosting can outperform CNNs in terms of both accuracy and computational cost on non-GPU architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the anatomy of acoustic emission

Abrupt, local frictional fault failure comprises a displacement that is normally accompanied by acoustic emission (AE)—an impulsive elastic wave broadcast with an amplitude proportional to particle velocity. The aggregate of these displacements is the basic fault motion. In laboratory shear experiments, the examination of a sequence of laboratory earthquakes includes continuous measurements of fault motion and the associated AE that is broadcast. From these measurements, connections between the fault motion and cumulative sum of the AE amplitude can be identified. The composition of the AE broadcasts reveals inhomogeneity in the fault mechanical structure from which they arise. This inhomogeneity can be decomposed into a time invariant AE component and an articulated AE component. The articulated AE component serves as a “state of the fault diagnostic” that follows a distinctive pattern to fault failure. Thus, the articulated AE component can be used directly to monitor the state of the fault.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗