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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Distribution Control Theory-Its Potential Application in Risk Management in Financial Systems

Stochastic Distribution Control (SDC) theory [1], originated by the author in 1996, aims at developing modeling and control strategies for dynamic and non-Gaussian stochastic systems by controlling the shape of the probability density functions of some concerned variables and parameters in stochastic systems. It generalizes the capability of standard stochastic differential equations and can therefore be applied to generic non-Gaussian systems. Since it was established in 1996, it has found a wide spectrum of applications in non-Gaussian stochastic system control, data mining, filtering and optimization for uncertain systems. In this short opinion article, discussions will be made on potential applications of SDC theory to financial systems in terms of risk analysis and management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower Cybersecurity Risk Management and Valuation

Advancements to DOE WPTO funded Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework application allows stakeholder to translate risk-based assessments to quantitative scores allowing to better decision making for cybersecurity investments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting and Managing Risk to Bats at Commercial Wind Farms using Acoustics

Bat populations in North America face novel threats from white-nose syndrome and widespread turbine-related mortality related to the rapidly expanding wind power industry in addition to long-standing pressures from habitat loss and degradation. Bats, unlike most small mammals, are long-lived and slow to reproduce, highlighting the importance of understanding and managing anthropogenic sources of mortality. My dissertation research used acoustic bat detectors to measure bat activity at commercial wind projects, predict patterns in risk, and design strategic measures to reduce fatality rates by curtailing turbine operation during periods when bats are most active. Bats collide with wind turbines only when their rotors are spinning, and risk of turbine-related fatality is therefore a dynamic factor that can be manipulated by curtailing turbine operation when bats are active. We first measured inter-detector variation in metrics of acoustic bat activity to understand how the acoustic detection process may affect inferences related to spatial and temporal variation in bat activity. Using acoustic detectors mounted on top of wind turbines at two commercial wind farms in West Virginia, we then demonstrated that the amount of bat activity recorded when turbines were operating aligned closely with bat fatality rates on multiple scales. Accordingly, the metric of bat activity exposed to turbine operation provides a meaningful, quantitative indicator of turbine-related bat fatality risk. Further, bats responded consistently to changing wind speed and temperature at turbines in both wind farms across multiple years, enabling exposed bat activity to be predicted accurately among turbines and years. Building on these results, we simulated exposure of bats to turbine operation and energy loss for curtailment strategies recommended by state and federal agencies in the United States and Canada. By adjusting parameters such as cut-in wind speeds and temperature thresholds, we demonstrated the ability to design strategic curtailment programs that achieve equivalent or greater predicted reductions in bat activity exposure for substantially less energy-production loss. Characterizing fatality risk on a finer scale using acoustics will help regulatory agencies and the wind industry alike reduce risks of population-level impacts to vulnerable bat species while continuing to expand large-scale renewable energy generation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Averse Bi-Level Stochastic Network Interdiction Model for Cyber-Security Risk Management

Security of cyber networks is crucial; recent severe cyber-attacks have had a devastating effect on many large organizations. The attack graph, which maps the potential attack paths of a cyber network, is a popular tool for analyzing cyber system vulnerability. In this study, we propose a bi-level stochastic network interdiction model on an attack graph to enable a risk-averse, resource constrained cyber network defender to optimally deploy security countermeasures that protect against attackers with an uncertain budget. This risk- averse conditional-value-at-risk (CVaR) model minimizes a weighted sum of the expected maximum loss over all scenarios and the expected maximum loss from the most damaging attack scenarios. We develop a customized constraint and column generation algorithm to solve our model as well as several acceleration techniques to improve the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the acceleration techniques enable the solution of relatively large problems within a reasonable amount of time: applying all the acceleration techniques also reduces the average computation time of the basic algorithm by 71% for 100-node graphs. Using metrics called mean-risk value of stochastic solution and value of risk-aversion, computational results suggest that our stochastic risk-averse model significantly outperforms deterministic and risk-neutral models when 1) the distribution of attacker budget is heavy-right-tailed and 2) the defender is highly risk-averse.

Bhuiyan, Tanveer H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

BESS Digital Assurance, Supply Chain Risk Management, and Emerging Regulation Session Two

The TADA BESS Supply Chain Workshops are designed to equip participants with the knowledge and tools necessary to address the evolving challenges at the intersection of battery energy storage systems (BESS), cybersecurity, and supply chain vulnerabilities. The workshops emphasize the application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles using INL’s procurement guide and the CIE-BAT tool. Attendees will develop risk-based security strategies and actionable compliance roadmaps tailored to their BESS projects. Additionally, the program fosters a collaborative network of practitioners and provides guidance on navigating emerging regulatory requirements, including FEOC rules under the OBBB framework, to assess and enhance organizational readiness. A comprehensive exploration of BESS cybersecurity supply chain risks, systematic vendor risk assessment through the BESS Procurement Guide, and practical application of the INL SCRM Chatbot for enhanced supply chain resilience. This is Session 2 of 3. (Full Version)

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

BESS Digital Assurance, Supply Chain Risk Management, and Emerging Regulation Session One

The TADA BESS Supply Chain Workshops are designed to equip participants with the knowledge and tools necessary to address the evolving challenges at the intersection of battery energy storage systems (BESS), cybersecurity, and supply chain vulnerabilities. The workshops emphasize the application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles using INL’s procurement guide and the CIE-BAT tool. Attendees will develop risk-based security strategies and actionable compliance roadmaps tailored to their BESS projects. Additionally, the program fosters a collaborative network of practitioners and provides guidance on navigating emerging regulatory requirements, including FEOC rules under the OBBB framework, to assess and enhance organizational readiness. This is Session 1 of 3. (Full Version)

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

BESS Digital Assurance, Supply Chain Risk Management, and Emerging Regulation Session One - Abridged

The TADA BESS Supply Chain Workshops are designed to equip participants with the knowledge and tools necessary to address the evolving challenges at the intersection of battery energy storage systems (BESS), cybersecurity, and supply chain vulnerabilities. The workshops emphasize the application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles using INL’s procurement guide and the CIE-BAT tool. Attendees will develop risk-based security strategies and actionable compliance roadmaps tailored to their BESS projects. Additionally, the program fosters a collaborative network of practitioners and provides guidance on navigating emerging regulatory requirements, including FEOC rules under the OBBB framework, to assess and enhance organizational readiness. This is Session 1 of 3.

25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Securing Digital Energy Infrastructure: Procurement, Contracting, and Supply Chain Risk Management Guidance

Recognizing the scale of this industry challenge, the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Grid Deployment Office (GDO) and Cybersecurity Energy Security & Emergency Response office have launched a multi-year BESS supply chain security initiative to identify consequence-driven approaches to addressing BESS supply chain security and provide resources to support prioritization of supply chain security efforts associated with the procurement of BESS equipment and services. This guide is one element of the supporting resources to be provided and sets forth a framework and guidance for procurement bidding, selection, risk analysis, and agreements stakeholders can implement to mitigate cybersecurity risks across the entirety of battery system component ecosystem, including the interconnected software and hardware required for control and monitoring BESSs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular supply chain optimization considering demand uncertainty to manage risk

Supply chain under demand uncertainty has been a challenging problem due to increased competition and market volatility in modern markets. Flexibility in planning decisions makes modular manufacturing a promising way to address this problem. We report the problem of multiperiod process and supply chain network design is considered under demand uncertainty. A mixed integer two-stage stochastic programming problem is formulated with integer variables indicating the process design and continuous variables to represent the material flow in the supply chain. The problem is solved using a rolling horizon approach. Benders decomposition is used to reduce the computational complexity of the optimization problem. To promote risk-averse decisions, a downside risk measure is incorporated in the model. The results demonstrate the several advantages of modular designs in meeting product demands. A pareto-optimal curve for minimizing the objectives of expected cost and downside risk is obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Flexible Service Contracting for Risk Management within Integrated Transmission and Distribution Systems

The general objective of our project has been to investigate the ability of Independent Distribution System Operators (IDSOs), functioning as linkage agents for Integrated Transmission and Distribution (ITD) systems, to facilitate the flexible availability and usage of reserve in support of ITD system operations. This general objective is in accordance with Order 2222 of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), titled “Participation of Distributed Energy Resource Aggregations in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators”. The Final Rule for FERC Order 2222 was issued on September 17, 2020. The primary contribution of our project is that we have formulated an innovative energy management Transactive Energy Design (TES) approach for ITD systems that provides promising support for our project objective. Specifically, we have developed a new type of IDSO-managed TES design for distribution system operations, as well as new types of swing contracts permitting IDSOs to participate in transmission system operations as providers of reserve harnessed from distribution system resources in return for appropriate compensation. Together, these design elements constitute a scalable market-based approach facilitating efficient reserve procurement for ITD system operations from a fuller range of power resources. The efficacy of our approach has been demonstrated by means of detailed conceptual analyses as well as test case simulations. To implement the latter, we have developed the ITD TES Platform V2.0, a computational platform that permits the modeling and software implementation of ITD system operations over time. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy region has been used as the empirical anchor for the development of this platform. Our conceptual and test-case work has been reported in a Wiley/IEEE Press book, two refereed book chapters, and seven refereed journal articles. The key components comprising the ITD TES Platform V2.0 have been released as documented open-source software at online GitHub repositories.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical Failure Risk Management for In-Service CSP Nitrate Hot Tanks

The hot thermal energy storage tanks in many operating (Gen2) concentrating solar power plants are designed to contain molten nitrate solar salt at 565 Degrees Celsius and are constructed from 347H stainless steel (SS). From previous work, it is known that 347H SS weldments are potentially susceptible to stress-relaxation cracking (SRC), particularly in the heat-affected zone above 540 Degrees Celsius when no post-weld heat-treatment (PWHT) is performed. However, residual stresses can be reduced when weldments receive PWHT, while at the same time a crack-resistant microstructure is being generated. The overarching goal of this project was to optimize cost-effective, thickness-dependent, localized PWHT procedures and to investigate for feasible non-destructive evaluation (NDE) at commercial scale for hot tanks in Gen2 CSP using 347H SS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗