Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Risk Factors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Megafires in a Warming World: What Wildfire Risk Factors Led to California’s Largest Recorded Wildfire

Massive wildfires and extreme fire behavior are becoming more frequent across the westernUnited States, creating a need to better understand how megafire behavior will evolve in our warmingworld. Here, the fire spread model Prometheus is used to simulate the initial explosive growth ofthe 2020 August Complex, which occurred in northern California (CA) mixed conifer forests. Hightemperatures, low relative humidity, and daytime southerly winds were all highly correlated withextreme rates of modeled spread. Fine fuels reached very dry levels, which accelerated simulationgrowth and heightened fire heat release (HR). Model sensitivity tests indicate that fire growth andHR are most sensitive to aridity and fuel moisture content. Despite the impressive early observedgrowth of the fire, shifting the simulation ignition to a very dry September 2020 heatwave predicted a>50% increase in growth and HR, as well as increased nighttime fire activity. Detailed model analysesof how extreme fire behavior develops can help fire personnel prepare for problematic ignitions.

Kevin Varga↗
NASA NTRS2023

Lake Anna Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Algal Event Risk Factors in Lake Anna and Help Inform Future Management Practices

Lake Anna is a man-made reservoir and popular recreation destination that spans over 13,000 acres-9,600 public and 3,400 private-in the Piedmont region of Virginia. The Lake has recently seen a rise in documented harmful algal blooms (HABs), which pose a variety of community and ecological concerns and are often exacerbated by anthropogenic factors, such as excess nutrient loads from agricultural runoff. NASA DEVELOP has partnered with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) to help monitor cyanobacteria and nutrient pollution indicators across Lake Anna. The team utilized Earth observations (EO) and in situ ancillary data to identify and monitor algal bloom trends. The team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-3 Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI) to analyze water quality variables such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, surface temperature, and cyanobacteria. Due to the lack of comprehensive in situ data and historic HAB event records, our ability to compare and validate EOs was limited. Additionally, deficient spatial resolutions, along with a geographically complicated shoreline, accentuated the spatial constraints we faced in our analysis. After examining EOs, our results indicated conditions conducive to the formation of HABs within the upper reaches of Lake Anna. Yet, spatially dependent limiting factors may have also influenced where these phenomena developed. When used in concert with existing in situ datasets, NASA EOs provide relevant stakeholders with more comprehensive analyses with which to engage in enhanced monitoring and watershed management.

cyanobacteria↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Risk of Crew Injury Due to Dynamic Loads During Spaceflight

Spaceflight requires tremendous amounts of energy to achieve Earth orbit and to attain escape velocity for interplanetary missions. Although the majority of the energy is managed in such a way as to limit the accelerations on the crew, several mission phases may result in crew exposure to dynamic loads. In the automotive industry, risk of serious injury can be tolerated because the probability of a crash is remote each time a person enters a vehicle, resulting in a low total risk of injury. For spaceflight, the level of acceptable injury risk must be lower to achieve a low total risk of injury because the dynamic loads are expected on each flight. To mitigate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, the NASA Human Research Program has developed a research plan to inform the knowledge gaps and develop relevant tools for assessing injury risk. The risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be further subdivided into extrinsic and intrinsic risk factors. Extrinsic risk factors include the vehicle dynamic profile, seat and restraint design, and spacesuit design. Human tolerance to loads varies considerably depending on the direction, amplitude, and rise-time of acceleration therefore the orientation of the body to the dynamic vector is critical to determining crew risk of injury. Although a particular vehicle dynamic profile may be safe for a particular design, the seat, restraint, and suit designs can affect the risk of injury due to localized effects. In addition, characteristics intrinsic to the crewmember may also contribute to the risk of injury, such as crewmember sex, age, anthropometry, and deconditioning due to spaceflight, and each astronaut may have a different risk profile because of these factors. The purpose of the research plan is to address any knowledge gaps in the risk factors to mitigate injury risk. Methods for assessing injury risk have been well documented in other analogous industries and include human volunteer testing, human exposure to dynamic environments, post-mortem human subject (PMHS) testing, animal testing, anthropomorphic test devices (ATD), dynamic models of the human, numerical models of ATDs, and numerical models of the human. Each has inherent strengths and limitations. For example, human volunteer testing is advantageous because a population can be selected that is similar to the astronaut corps; however, because of the inherent ethical limitations, only sub-injurious conditions can be tested. PMHSs can be tested in a variety of conditions including injurious levels, but the responses are not completely analogous to living human subjects. In addition, it is exceedingly difficult to select a PMHS population that is similar to the astronaut corps. ATDs are currently widely used in the automotive industry and military because they are highly repeatable and durable. Unfortunately, because they are mechanical models of the human body, the biofidelity of the responses are limited to dynamic conditions used to validate the ATD. Numerical models of the ATD, in addition to the strengths and limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional limitations for ATDs, are easy to use for a variety of designs before a design is fabricated, but also have additional uncertainty. Dynamic models are simple and easy to use, but do not account for localized effects of the seat and suit. Finally, numerical models of the human have the potential to have the most advantages; however, the current models are not validated for the conditions expected during spaceflight. To properly assess spaceflight conditions with numerical human models, human data would be needed to optimize the model responses for those conditions. Using the appropriate assessment method with the knowledge gained for each risk factor, an appropriate approach for mitigating the risk of injury due to dynamic loads can be developed ensuring crew safety in future NASA vehicles.

Somers, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Data Mining Activity for Bone Discipline: Calculating a Factor of Risk for Hip Fracture in Long-Duration Astronauts

The factor-of-risk (Phi), defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength, is a biomechanical approach to hip fracture risk assessment that may be used to identify subjects who are at increased risk for fracture. The purpose of this project was to calculate the factor of risk in long duration astronauts after return from a mission on the International Space Station (ISS), which is typically 6 months in duration. The load applied to the hip was calculated for a sideways fall from standing height based on the individual height and weight of the astronauts. The soft tissue thickness overlying the greater trochanter was measured from the DXA whole body scans and used to estimate attenuation of the impact force provided by soft tissues overlying the hip. Femoral strength was estimated from femoral areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), which were performed between 5-32 days of landing. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expedition 1 to 18 were included in this study, where repeat flyers were treated as separate subjects. Male astronauts (n=20) had a significantly higher factor of risk for hip fracture Phi than females (n=5), with preflight values of 0.83+/-0.11 and 0.36+/-0.07, respectively, but there was no significant difference between preflight and postflight Phi (Figure 1). Femoral aBMD measurements were not found to be significantly different between men and women. Three men and no women exceeded the theoretical fracture threshold of Phi=1 immediately postflight, indicating that they would likely suffer a hip fracture if they were to experience a sideways fall with impact to the greater trochanter. These data suggest that male astronauts may be at greater risk for hip fracture than women following spaceflight, primarily due to relatively less soft tissue thickness and subsequently greater impact force.

Ellman, R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Bounding the risk of crew loss following orbital debris penetration of the International Space Station at assembly stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Models, Theoretical↗
NASA NTRS2002

Bounding the Risk of Crew Loss Following Orbital Debris Penetration of the International Space Station at Assembly Stages 1J and 1E

Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been sufficiently large to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight lJ, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight lE, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures and configurations that reduce R at these stages.

Evans, S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only (Opperman et al 2010). The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

McFarland, Shane M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only. The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

Charvat, Chacqueline M.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Behavior patterns and coronary heart disease

The relationships between two behavioral patterns, cardiac risk factors, and coronary heart disease are investigated. Risk factors used in the analysis were family history of coronary disease, smoking, cholesterol, obesity, systotic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, blood sugar, uric acid, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and white blood unit. It was found that conventional, non-behavioral pattern risk factors alone were not significantly related to coronary heart disease.

Townsend, J. C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Quantitative Risk Assessment for Combined Spaceflight Hazards: Evaluating the Impact of Short Sleep Durations on Space Crew Cardiovascular Health

Astronauts embarking on long-duration missions will be exposed to multiple spaceflight hazards including radiation, isolation and confinement, distance from Earth, hostile closed environments, and altered gravity. These hazards pose health risks to the crew in-mission and postflight, including risks to cardiovascular health. For radiation, quantitative risk models have been developed that are based on large-scale epidemiological evidence from exposed terrestrial populations, which are extrapolated to account for the difference in radiological effectiveness between ground-based and in-flight exposures. •Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are multifactorial, therefore multiple risk factors can influence disease risk estimates. •Astronauts with spaceflight experience is a very small population. •To overcome limitations of cohort, population data from presumed equivalent stressors on Earth can be used to quantitatively assess possible risks. •Sleep disruption and short sleep duration are known consequences of spaceflight and are also established risk factors for cardiovascular disease on earth (Pateletal.,2020). •Coronary Heart Disease (CHD), Myocardial Infarction (MI), and stroke are negative health effects due to short sleep durations and sleep disruptions (Yinetal.,2017); (Cappuccio et al., 2010). •A combined CVD risk model including spaceflight stressor such as sleep, stress, radiation, etc.) will provide more precise estimate of risks.

Spaceflight Hazards↗
NASA NTRS2015

Menstrual Cycle Control in Female Astronauts and the Associated Risk of Venous Thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a common and serious condition affecting approximately 1‐2 per 1000 people in the USA every year. There have been no documented case reports of VTE in female astronauts during spaceflight in the published literature. Some female astronauts use hormonal contraception to control their menstrual cycles and it is currently unknown how this affects their risk of VTE. Current terrestrial risk prediction models do not account for the spaceflight environment and the physiological changes associated with it. We therefore aim to estimate a specific risk score for female astronauts who are taking hormonal contraception for menstrual cycle control, to deduce whether they are at an elevated risk of VTE. A systematic review of the literature was conducted in order to identify and quantify known terrestrial risk factors for VTE. Studies involving analogues for the female astronaut population were also reviewed, for example, military personnel who use the oral contraceptive pill for menstrual suppression. Well known terrestrial risk factors, for example, obesity or smoking would not be applicable to our study population as these candidates would have been excluded during astronaut selection processes. Other risk factors for VTE include hormonal therapy, lower limb paralysis, physical inactivity, hyperhomocysteinemia, low methylfolate levels and minor injuries, all of which potentially apply to crew members LSAH data will be assessed to identify which of these risk factors are applicable to our astronaut population. Using known terrestrial risk data, an overall estimated risk of VTE for female astronauts using menstrual cycle control methods will therefore be calculated. We predict this will be higher than the general population but not significantly higher requiring thromboprophylaxis. This study attempts to delineate what is assumed to be true of our astronaut population, for example, they are known to be a healthy fit cohort of individuals, and combine physiological impacts of spaceflight (cephalic fluid shifts, lower limb inactivity) to understand specific risks associated with hormonal contraception.

Jain, Varsha↗
NASA NTRS2017

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in NASA Astronauts Across the Lifespan: Historical Cohort Studies

Acute effects of spaceflight on the cardiovascular system have been studied extensively, but the combined chronic effects of spaceflight and aging are not well understood. Preparation for and participation in space flight activities are potentially associated with cardiovascular disease risk factors (e.g., altered dietary and exercise habits, physical and emotional stress, circadian shifts, radiation). Further, astronauts who travel into space multiple times may be at an increased risk across their lifespan. However, comparing the risk of cardiovascular disease in astronauts to other large cohorts is difficult. For example, comparisons between astronauts and large national cohorts, such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the National Health Information Survey, are hampered by significant differences in health status between astronauts and the general population, and most of these national studies fail to provide longitudinal data on population health. To address those limitations, NASA's Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health previously sought to compare the astronauts to a cohort of civil servants employed at the Johnson Space Center. However, differences between the astronauts and civil servants at the beginning of the study, as well as differential follow up, limited the ability to interpret the results. To resolve some of these limitations, two unique cohorts of healthy workers, U.S. Air Force aviators and Cooper Center Longitudinal Study participants, have been identified as potential comparison populations for the astronaut corps. The Air Force cohort was chosen due to similarities in health at selection, screening, and some occupational exposures that Air Force aviators endure, many of which mirror that of the astronaut corps. The Cooper Clinic cohort, a generally healthy prevention cohort, was chosen for the vast array of clinical cardiovascular measures collected in a longitudinal manner complementary to those collected on astronauts, for a large number of subjects since 1971. The purpose of this study is to understand the incidence of cardiovascular disease outcomes and risk factors in the astronaut corps and determine whether the rates of disease are different than these two cohorts. The research questions are: 1. Are there differences in the incidence of CVD outcomes (MI, revascularization, and stroke) between each cohort and the NASA Astronaut cohort? 2. Are there differences in the incidence of CVD risks (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, arrhythmias, and diabetes) between each cohort and the NASA Astronaut cohort? 3. Are there differences between each cohort and the NASA Astronaut cohort in how CVD risk factors (e.g., lipids, behaviors) change across time? Collectively, results from these studies will enhance our understanding of how cardiovascular disease outcomes and risk factors change across time in astronauts compared to other longitudinally-studied healthy cohorts and determine if there are interactions between or additive effects of the occupational health effects of spaceflight exposure and normal aging.

Charvat, Jacqueline M.↗