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Results for “Reliable hybrid analysis and modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2014

Ka-Band Link Study and Analysis for a Mars Hybrid RF/Optical Software Defined Radio

The integrated radio and optical communications (iROC) project at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is investigating the feasibility of a hybrid RF and optical communication subsystem for future deep space missions. The hybrid communications subsystem enables the advancement of optical communications while simultaneously mitigating the risk of infusion by combining an experimental optical transmitter and telescope with a reliable Ka-band RF transmitter and antenna. The iROC communications subsystem seeks to maximize the total data return over the course of a potential 2-year mission in Mars orbit beginning in 2021. Although optical communication by itself offers potential for greater data return over RF, the reliable Ka-band link is also being designed for high data return capability in this hybrid system. A daily analysis of the RF link budget over the 2-year span is performed to optimize and provide detailed estimates of the RF data return. In particular, the bandwidth dependence of these data return estimates is analyzed for candidate waveforms. In this effort, a data return modeling tool was created to analyze candidate RF modulation and coding schemes with respect to their spectral efficiency, amplifier output power back-off, required digital to analog conversion (DAC) sampling rates, and support by ground receivers. A set of RF waveforms is recommended for use on the iROC platform.

communication↗

NASA NTRS1983

Design of the hybrid automated reliability predictor

The design of the Hybrid Automated Reliability Predictor (HARP), now under development at Duke University, is presented. The HARP approach to reliability prediction is characterized by a decomposition of the overall model into fault-occurrence and fault-handling sub-models. The fault-occurrence model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain which is solved analytically, while the fault-handling model is a Petri Net which is simulated. HARP provides automated analysis of sensitivity to uncertainties in the input parameters and in the initial state specifications. It then produces a predicted reliability band as a function of mission time, as well as estimates of the improvement (narrowing of the band) to be gained by a specified amount of reduction in uncertainty.

Geist, R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Reliability Analysis of Uniaxially Ground Brittle Materials

The fast fracture strength distribution of uniaxially ground, alpha silicon carbide was investigated as a function of grinding angle relative to the principal stress direction in flexure. Both as-ground and ground/annealed surfaces were investigated. The resulting flexural strength distributions were used to verify reliability models and predict the strength distribution of larger plate specimens tested in biaxial flexure. Complete fractography was done on the specimens. Failures occurred from agglomerates, machining cracks, or hybrid flaws that consisted of a machining crack located at a processing agglomerate. Annealing eliminated failures due to machining damage. Reliability analyses were performed using two and three parameter Weibull and Batdorf methodologies. The Weibull size effect was demonstrated for machining flaws. Mixed mode reliability models reasonably predicted the strength distributions of uniaxial flexure and biaxial plate specimens.

Salem, Jonathan A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Advances and trends in computational structural mechanics

Recent developments in computational structural mechanics are reviewed with reference to computational needs for future structures technology, advances in computational models for material behavior, discrete element technology, assessment and control of numerical simulations of structural response, hybrid analysis, and techniques for large-scale optimization. Research areas in computational structural mechanics which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified. These include prediction and analysis of the failure of structural components made of new materials, development of computational strategies and solution methodologies for large-scale structural calculations, and assessment of reliability and adaptive improvement of response predictions.

Noor, A. K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dyno-in-the-Loop: An Innovative Hardware-in-the-Loop Development and Testing Platform for Emerging Mobility Technologies

Today’s transportation is quickly transforming with the nascent advent of connectivity, automation, shared-mobility, and electrification. These technologies will not only affect our safety and mobility, but also our energy consumption, and environment. As a result, it is of unprecedented importance to understand the overall system impacts due to the introduction of these emerging technologies and concepts. Existing modeling tools are not able to effectively capture the implications of these technologies, not to mention accurately and reliably evaluating their effectiveness with a reasonable scope. To address these gaps, a dynamometer-in-the-loop (DiL) development and testing approach is proposed which integrates test vehicle(s), chassis dynamometer, and high fidelity traffic simulation tools, in order to achieve a balance between the model accuracy and scalability of environmental analysis for the next generation of transportation systems. With this DiL platform, a connected eco-operation system for the plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB) has been developed and tested, which can optimize the vehicle dynamics (and potentially powertrain control via smart energy management) to reduce the operational energy consumption as well as tailpipe emissions of the target PHEB. The system performance has been evaluated on the DiL platform with respect to a variety of traffic congestion levels. The results have shown that the developed system can save fuel by more than 13% while reducing the electricity consumption by 2% in the test scenarios.

Wu, Guoyuan↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assume-Guarantee Abstraction Refinement Meets Hybrid Systems

Compositional verification techniques in the assume- guarantee style have been successfully applied to transition systems to efficiently reduce the search space by leveraging the compositional nature of the systems under consideration. We adapt these techniques to the domain of hybrid systems with affine dynamics. To build assumptions we introduce an abstraction based on location merging. We integrate the assume-guarantee style analysis with automatic abstraction refinement. We have implemented our approach in the symbolic hybrid model checker SpaceEx. The evaluation shows its practical potential. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work combining assume-guarantee reasoning with automatic abstraction-refinement in the context of hybrid automata.

Reliability↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiative and continuum dampings of reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes and perturbative analysis limitations for tokamaks

A careful theoretical analysis of the excitation of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs), such as TAE (toroidicity-induced AE) and RSAE (reversed shear AE), by superalfvenic energetic particles is required for reliable predictions of energetic ion relaxation in present day fusion experiments. This includes the evaluation of different AE damping mechanisms including radiative and continuum dampings which are the focus of this study. A recent comprehensive benchmark of different eigenmode solvers including gyrokinetic, gyrofluid and hybrid magenetohydrodynamics (MHD) has shown that employed models may have deficiencies when addressing some of them (Taimourzadeh et al., Nucl. Fusion, vol. 59, 2019, 066006). Here, in this paper, we are studying the radiative and continuum dampings of RSAEs in details which were missing in hybrid NOVA/NOVA-C calculations to prepare a NOVA-C package with a substantial upgrade. Both dampings require the finite Larmor radius (FLR) corrections to AE mode structures to be accounted for. Accurately calculating different damping rates and understanding their parametric dependencies, we resolve the limitation coming out of the perturbative approach. In particular, here, the radiative damping is included perturbatively, whereas the continuum damping is computed non-perturbatively. Our comparison leads to the conclusion that the non-perturbative treatment of the unstable RSAE modes is needed to find the agreement with the gyrokinetic calculations. We expect that the RSAE mode structure modification plays a dominant role in determining the RSAE stability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological constraints from the cross-correlation of DESI Luminous Red Galaxies with CMB lensing from Planck PR4 and ACT DR6

Here, we infer the growth of large scale structure over the redshift range 0.4 ≲ z ≲ 1 from the cross-correlation of spectroscopically calibrated Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) selected from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) legacy imaging survey with CMB lensing maps reconstructed from the latest Planck and ACT data. We adopt a hybrid effective field theory (HEFT) model that robustly regulates the cosmological information obtainable from smaller scales, such that our cosmological constraints are reliably derived from the (predominantly) linear regime. We perform an extensive set of bandpower- and parameter-level systematics checks to ensure the robustness of our results and to characterize the uniformity of the LRG sample. We demonstrate that our results are stable to a wide range of modeling assumptions, finding excellent agreement with a linear theory analysis performed on a restricted range of scales. From a tomographic analysis of the four LRG photometric redshift bins we find that the rate of structure growth is consistent with ΛCDM with an overall amplitude that is ≃ 5-7% lower than predicted by primary CMB measurements with modest (∼ 2σ) statistical significance. From the combined analysis of all four bins and their cross-correlations with Planck we obtain S 8 = 0.765 ± 0.023, which is less discrepant with primary CMB measurements than previous DESI LRG cross Planck CMB lensing results. From the cross-correlation with ACT we obtain S 8 = 0.790 +0.024 -0.027 , while when jointly analyzing Planck and ACT we find S 8 = 0.775 +0.019 -0.022 from our data alone and σ 8 = 0.772 +0.020 -0.023 with the addition of BAO data. These constraints are consistent with the latest Planck primary CMB analyses at the ≃ 1.6-2.2σ level, and are in excellent agreement with galaxy lensing surveys.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ELECTRIFICATION OF A HEAVY-DUTY OFF-ROAD MATERIAL HANDLER: ENERGY SAVINGS AND EMISSION REDUCTIONS

Federal regulations are driving the adoption of electrification technologies to reduce carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emissions, a metric that quantifies the global warming potential of various greenhouse gases in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2). Although no specific CO2 regulations exist for heavy-duty off-road machines, future reductions are likely, given stricter emissions standards for on-road vehicles. The heavy-duty off-road sector offers significant fuel-saving potential, as its focus has traditionally been on reliability and performance rather than fuel efficiency. This dissertation examines fuel and CO2e savings opportunities on a heavy-duty off-road material handler, the Pettibone Cary-Lift 204i, from stock configuration to simple modifications to a complete teardown and reconfiguration of the machine with a plug-in series hybrid architecture using electrified hydraulics. The study begins by modeling the baseline machine’s fuel and energy consumption, calibrating with experimental data from custom operating cycles. An energy analysis identifies key areas for fuel savings. Two simple powertrain modifications result in a combined 16.2% fuel savings. Next, a Pugh-style analysis narrows a list of electrified architectures, leading to high-fidelity models that evaluate total lifetime CO2e and costs. Higher electrification levels reduce CO2e emissions but increase costs, and electricity grid emissions significantly impact CO2e for plug-in architectures. A plug-in series hybrid is chosen for the project. In its base control form, 49% fuel and 29% CO2e savings are expected from the plug-in series hybrid compared to the baseline machine. Further savings are pursued through regenerative braking (6.3%) and load-following hydraulic control (17.8%), totaling 24.1% fuel savings, and leading to a total of 61% fuel and 41% CO2e savings compared to the baseline. Battery chemistries and charging strategies are also analyzed for cost and CO2e impacts, finding LFP batteries as superior due to longevity, and overnight level 2 charging usually at a lower cost but resulting in higher emissions than opportunity DC fast-charging (DCFC). DCFC emissions are highly dependent on grid emissions, and DCFC cost is highly dependent on grid demand charges. Finally, artificial intelligence is applied to operating cycle recognition. Neural network accuracy ranges from 81% to 99%, with applications to worksite efficiency and safety improvements.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Reference Motor Designs for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles

Electric and hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles require high performance and high reliability electric motor drivetrains. Failure analysis of NASA’s Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technologies’ reference vehicles pointed to current electric motor drivetrain reliability being below what is needed to meet the expected stringent reliability requirements for Urban Air Mobility vehicles. In this paper, design studies are carried out for UAM vehicle electric motors to produce reference designs. The primary intent of these reference motor designs is to provide guidance for UAM motor reliability model development and technology advancement. They additionally provide high fidelity motor sizing information for vehicle designers and references for different technologies or motor topologies to be traded against.

Electric Motor Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Reference Motor Designs for Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Vehicles

Electric and hybrid electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles require high performance and high reliability electric motor drivetrains. Failure analysis of NASA’s Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technologies’ reference vehicles pointed to current electric motor drivetrain reliability being below what is needed to meet the expected stringent reliability requirements for Urban Air Mobility vehicles [1]. In this paper, design studies are carried out for UAM vehicle electric motors to produce reference designs. The primary intent of these reference motor designs is to provide guidance for UAM motor reliability model development and technology advancement. They additionally provide high fidelity motor sizing information for vehicle designers and references for different technologies or motor topologies to be traded against.

Thomas Tallerico↗

DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Unit Commitment with Security Constrained AC Power Flow via ADMM and Hybrid Modeling Strategies

This research introduces a more efficient way to optimize power grid operations, breaking the problem into manageable steps and using advanced mathematical techniques to speed up calculations. By incorporating smart heuristics, improved preprocessing, and contingency analysis, the approach allows operators to make better decisions faster. These innovations enhance our understanding of how to optimize energy generation, making it possible to anticipate failures before they happen, reduce system costs, and improve overall grid performance. Ultimately, this research helps bridge the gap between theoretical models and real-world applications, paving the way for a smarter, more resilient power grid. This research directly benefits the public by making electricity more affordable, reliable, and sustainable. By improving how power grids schedule and distribute electricity, the project helps energy providers reduce operational costs, which can lead to lower electricity prices for consumers. Additionally, the ability to predict and prevent power system failures enhances grid reliability, reducing the likelihood of blackouts that can disrupt homes, businesses, and critical infrastructure such as hospitals. From an environmental perspective, optimizing power generation reduces energy waste and lowers carbon emissions, contributing to cleaner air and a more sustainable energy system. Furthermore, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent, these advancements make the power grid more resilient, ensuring communities are better prepared for emergencies and natural disasters. By strengthening the nation's energy infrastructure, this research plays a crucial role in improving economic stability, public safety, and environmental sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

System Analysis of an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) - Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) Hybrid Cycle

The variability of renewable energy sources poses challenges for reliable grid operation. Conventional thermal power sources, though reliable, often lack operational flexibility. Hybrid energy systems that integrate Solid Oxide Fuel cells (SOFC) with Internal Combustion Engines (ICE) offer a promising solution by achieving relatively higher efficiency and grid-following capability. This study investigates performance of a 100-kW pressurized SOFC-ICE hybrid cycle. In this configuration, unutilized SOFC fuel is used to drive the engine, with a turbocharger providing air supply and an external reformer generating syngas. System components were numerically modeled using MATLAB/SIMULINK for the SOFC and reformer, and EBSILON® for the ICE and balance of plant. Parametric studies varied fuel utilization (70-90%), reformer temperature (600 – 1000K), anode off-gas recirculation (0 – 70%), and current density (0.2 – 0.55 A/cm2). Results show that the SOFC and ICE operate as thermally independent topping and bottoming cycles, achieving peak efficiency of 62% under optimized conditions.

hybrid↗

NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗

NASA NTRS2013

New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

Zapata, Edgar↗