Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Reliability and Integrity Management”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Harnessing Virtual Power Plants Reliably: Enabling tools for increased observability, controllability, operation, and aggregation of distributed energy resources

Harnessing virtual power plants enhances the integration of distributed energy resources into utility grids for a sustainable energy future. Virtual power plants (VPPs) aggregate DERs to enhance resource adequacy and reduce emissions. U.S. utilities are exploring various technologies to manage DERs effectively. FERC Order 2222 allows DERs to participate in both wholesale and retail markets. Enhancing observability and controllability of behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs is essential for reliable grid operations. A hierarchical control architecture can improve coordination among residential energy resources. Field tests showed nearly 20% energy savings and 30% peak power reduction during grid events. Effective management of DERs requires enhanced situational awareness to prevent grid congestion. Integrating DER management systems (DERMS) with existing planning tools can improve operational security. Near-real-time grid models can validate optimal resource set points against resource uncertainty. Traditional uninterruptible power supplies (UPS) can be upgraded to support grid services and become part of VPPs. Upgrading UPS systems can reduce costs by 75% and unlock significant battery capacity. New battery management systems and grid-aware controllers are essential for optimizing UPS performance. Continued research and development are necessary to address challenges in integrating DERs into utility grids. Encouraging customer participation in pilot programs is vital for the evolution of VPPs. Here, the shift towards price-responsive DERs and VPPs is expected to enhance energy distribution efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2027

Market participation strategy of hybrid energy resources: A New York ISO case study

Drawing on existing market designs with independent resource participation in electricity markets, this study analyzes participation models for hybrid resources combining renewable generation and storage. Two models are considered: in the first, the components operate independently, with the Independent System Operator (ISO) managing the storage state of charge (SoC); in the second, the hybrid resource acts as an integrated unit, submitting offers as a “black box” and managing its SoC internally. Using a production cost model for the zonal New York Bulk Power System, we evaluate trade-offs in system reliability, market efficiency, and asset profitability. Our results provide several key insights for policymakers, showing that the ISO-managed granular model enhances social welfare through explicit SoC management, while the simpler integrated model is more computationally efficient, but may cause more real-time violations and lower overall profits.

Bansal, Rajni Kant↗
DOE OSTI2025

Packages of Distributed Energy Technologies Demonstrating Demand Flexibility at Community Scale

The combination of increased electric load growth across all sectors, deferred electrical infrastructure investment, and other factors resulting in variable electric power supply, has created technical challenges to maintaining a resilient and reliable grid. Many federal, regional, and local efforts are in play to modernize the electric grid, including advancing building technologies and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are utilizing smarter controls to become responsive to both occupant and grid needs. This report reviews ten pilot projects demonstrating how groups of buildings combined with behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs such as electric vehicle (EV) charging, battery storage, flexible HVAC and domestic hot water systems, and photovoltaic systems can reliably and cost effectively provide grid services. Each of the ten pilot projects aim to deliver both energy efficiency and demand flexibility (DF) while supporting load growth. The ten demonstration teams are piloting flexible DER packages across diverse communities of residential and commercial buildings to address a variety of regional grid needs. The outcomes of these pilot projects will be used to inform future scaling through utility program development. This paper characterizes the ten teams, showcasing the decision-making process used by each group to develop their packages (Section 2), the grid services they plan to deliver (Section 3), the types of DER packages selected for deployment within building sectors (Section 4) and trends between building sector, DER types, and grid services In order to achieve community scale benefits, the pilot projects must utilize aggregated control mechanisms for coordinating buildings and DERs together. Several types of coordinated control architectures have evolved amongst the teams, influenced by use type, existing market conditions, and integration type. Three coordinated controls architectures have been characterized, highlighting their use cases, benefits, challenges, and tradeoffs in their design. These insights can aid utilities, control vendors, and developers in scaling community-level energy systems (Paul, 2024). Ultimately, the technology packages selected by the ten teams will be coordinated to provide power system services, also known as grid services. Insights from these demonstrations will be useful for grid operators, regulators, aggregators and other stakeholders as they look to deploy demand flexible resources as grid services in the future. The grid services that each team is targeting for demonstration are described in Section 3 and Section 4. Methods for evaluating the grid services have been described in the paper Metrics for Evaluating Grid Service Provision from Communities of Grid-interactive and Efficient Buildings and other DER (MacDonald, 2023). To identify technology packages for demonstration, Section 2 shows that project teams used a range of analysis approaches, including building energy modeling, AMI data analysis, cost-benefit frameworks, and utility pilot data. Some teams emphasized technical modeling to quantify grid impacts and demand reduction potential, while others prioritized economic evaluations, stakeholder input, or exploratory pilots to inform deployment decisions. This diversity reflects the need to tailor selection methods to project goals, available data, and organizational context. Section 5 discusses trends between the DER technologies deployed and the grid service provisions from each team. Residential buildings (multifamily and single family) lean towards technologies that enhance energy efficiency (e.g. weatherization upgrades, smart thermostats) and onsite power generation integration (e.g. solar PV). Commercial building demonstrations prioritize technologies that ensure operational reliability (e.g. battery storage) and centralized energy management systems and optimization solutions. Teams that are deploying controllable storage-based technologies are more likely to provide grid services that require a near real-time response. Teams incorporating load shifting technologies like smart thermostats with HEMs are likely to include energy markets participation and customer bill management offerings. Campus demonstrations are adopting diverse sets of DERs to emphasize renewable generation, paired with centralized control. This section also describes technologies that were considered during project planning but ultimately excluded from final deployment. These demonstrations reveal that effective DER package design should be tailored to building type, customer segment, and construction vintage. Multifamily buildings benefit from centralized HVAC upgrades and supervisory controls, while single-family homes are well-suited for individualized technologies like solar, storage, and smart home energy monitors. Commercial and campus settings prioritize EMIS integration and load optimization. New construction enables cost-effective integration of DER-ready infrastructure, whereas retrofits require deployments aligned with owner and tenant value streams. For utility program planners, early coordination with developers and building owners, paired with segmented and modular program offerings, can improve adoption, scalability, and grid impact.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital Twin + AI: Control Room of the Future

A digital twin enhances power grid control room operations by providing real-time monitoring, predictive insights, simulation capabilities, remote control, training opportunities, data integration, and decision support. This technology empowers control room operators to effectively manage the grid, optimize performance, and ensure reliable and efficient energy distribution.

control room of the future↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of a Prize Mechanism to Address Data Utilization Challenges at Utilities

The electric industry sector is facing an “explosion” of data from a variety of sources. Electric sector stakeholders need to define how to capitalize on large datasets, both those they create and those from other sources (like data on weather, buildings, electric vehicles, etc.), to improve reliability and resilience and meet the changing system dynamics from renewable integration. For the electricity sector to fully utilize these vast new datasets, it must undergo a transformation in how it manages data quality, storage, and processing. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity (OE) is committed to accelerating research, development, and demonstration of new technologies and tools within the electricity sector to advance reliability, resilience, and affordable operation of the power system. Through the prize mechanism, OE identified two widespread data-related challenges for utilities—load modeling and data analysis automation—and offered an opportunity for utilities and teams of software engineers to identify additional challenges faced by utilities. After completing one round of the American-Made Digitizing Utilities Prize, OE, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) as the prize administrator, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) as the domain experts have compiled the results and lessons learned to feed into the second round of the prize.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

TrustDER: Trusted, Private and Scalable Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources

In this project, the Stanford and SLAC Teams have developed a Trusted, Private and Scalable platform for coordinating Coordination of Distributed Energy Resources (TrustDER). This is a layered system that ensures private, trusted and scalable coordination and monitoring of DERs. It accommodates a variety of resources, such as solar generation, gensets and loads, with a particular focus on battery systems-based resources, as they are a transformational technology experiencing fast growth in adoption by large critical facilities. The platform can be used as standalone or added to existing aggregation systems to enable trust, privacy and resilience. TrustDER consists of layers that address each of the shortcomings of the existing state of the art. Each layer in the platform can operate independently but provides information to the layers above it to enable a novel form of overall coordination architecture. The project consists of several tasks, with each task dedicated to the design of each layer. Task 2 Resource Virtualization defined a software abstraction layer for distributed energy resources (DERs). The goal of this abstraction was to simplify the implementation of algorithms utilizing cooperation of DERs resources in a variety of use cases. Task 3 is on Secure ID for Asset Authentication. Identity Management Systems (IDMS) are a foundational infrastructure for interactions between entities (organizations, users, devices, and services). Secure ID is blockchain-based a distributed identity management system allowing (1) identity provisioning, (2) authentication, (3) authorization, and (4) identity data sharing for IoT-enabled assets on the electricity grid. In this project, the SLAC team focused on designing and testing Keymaker, a protocol for authenticating device identity managed by Secure ID. Task 5 Private and Safe Integration is focused on the design and evaluation of a DER cooperation scheme which allows for the aggregation of DERs without impacting network reliability. The approach is designed based on realistic assumptions regarding data availability, communication infrastructure limitations, and privacy. Task 6 Scalable Distributed Privacy for Information explored how virtualized batteries could be managed privately. Specifically, it examined the case in which a principal provides a partitioned battery to multiple clients. Task 7 Use Cases was to ensure that this technology was applied in relevant situations and scenarios. Primarily, this means that virtualization needed to be employed in a manner that either improved flexibility, bolstered security or privacy, or decreased costs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

High Temperature Optocoupler for 3D High Density Power Modules

The goal of this proposed research is to develop a reliable high-temperature optocouplers, which can operate at 250°C with at least ten-year lifetime, and replace isolation transforms as the galvanic isolation solution for the 3D integration of high density power modules. The electrification of future transportations (i.e., electric vehicles) will continuously drive the demand for high density power modules. Optocouplers (i.e., packaged light emitter and detector) as a promising candidate to replace bulky isolation transformers are highly desirable to facilitate the continuous scale-down of gate driver circuitry that will lead to 3D high density power modules and achieve disruptive performance in terms of thermal management, power density, power efficiency, reliability and operating environments. However, regular semiconductor optoelectronic materials and devices have significant difficulty functioning in the harsh environments designated for high density power module usage (such as operation at high temperatures). Ultimately, it is not the intrinsic properties of power devices that prevent their use at higher temperatures, but rather the low voltage electronics needed to drive them and the packaging that surrounds them. The typical operating temperature for optocouplers is only up to 100°C, due to the limitations of light emitting diode (LED) devices inside and packaging materials. A systematic characterization methodology will be developed to analyze the performance, lifetime and reliability of LED devices and distinguish multiple failure mechanisms at high temperatures. An original methodology of “design for reliability” will be developed to design the optoelectronic devices with high reliability and long lifetime at high temperatures. A new architecture of high temperature high reliable optocouplers will be developed, fabricated and demonstrated with continuous operating at 250°C. The development of efficient, reliable high density 3D power modules is the foundation for energy efficiency and energy reliability. Enabled with advanced 3D integration and packaging technologies, high density power module solutions can achieve much more superior performance over the conventional discrete solutions in terms of efficiency, thermal management and power density. The proposed concept of high temperature optocouplers as the galvanic isolation solution for high density power modules will bring together interdisciplinary research involving the wide bandgap materials, optoelectronics, high reliable device design, electronics packaging and power modules. A streamline of skilled personnel would be trained including graduate and undergraduate students, local engineers and scientists which are in great demand to both academia and optoelectronics industry. The proposed research topics, such as, solid state lighting and high temperature device reliability, are currently of major interest at the Department of Energy, in particular, Sandia National Laboratories. This project can enhance collaborations between the University of Arkansas (UA) and Sandia National Laboratories. The findings of the proposed research are expected to be integrated into high density 3-D power modules at the Engineering Research Center for Power Optimization for Electro-Thermal Systems (POETS).

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Risk Informed Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

Industry equipment reliability and asset management programs are essential elements that help ensure the safe and economical operation of nuclear power plants. The effectiveness of these programs is addressed in several industry-developed and regulatory programs. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project is tasked to develop tools in support of the equipment reliability and asset management programs at nuclear power plants. These tools are designed to create a direct bridge between component health/lifecycle data and decision making (e.g., maintenance scheduling and project prioritization). The goal of this article is to provide a guide for specific use cases that the RIAM project is targeting. We have grouped uses cases into three main areas. The first area focuses on the analysis of equipment reliability data with a particular emphasis on condition-based data, such as test/surveillance reports and component monitoring data. The second area focuses on the integration of equipment reliability into system/plant reliability models to determine system/plant health and identify the components that are critical to maintain an operational system. Lastly, the third area manages plant resources, such as maintenance activities and replacement scheduling using optimization methods. Here the primary focus is on supporting typical system engineer decisions regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. This is performed in a risk-informed context where the term “risk” is broadly constructed to include both plant reliability and economics. This framework combines data analytics tools to analyze equipment reliability data with risk-informed methods designed to support system engineer decisions (e.g., maintenance and replacement schedules, optimal maintenance posture) in a customizable workflow.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

SIGHT: Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies for Inferring Building Characteristics

Building characteristics are often absent in building stock datasets, particularly in regions most vulnerable to climate change and requiring effective disaster management strategies. Traditional machine learning approaches, while widely used to predict building attributes, typically neglect the spatial context of the data, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a novel algorithm, the Stacked Integration of Geospatial Hierarchical Typologies. This algorithm adapts a meta-learning framework to incorporate geospatial context into the predictive modeling process. We demonstrate the utility of the algorithm through two primary use cases: building use type classification and building height prediction. The algorithm consistently achieved or exceeded a 0.94 macro average F1 score across five geographically distinct countries for building use type classification. For building height prediction, it accurately predicted heights with a root mean square error of 3.01 in a comprehensive study using roughly 3.6 million buildings in Japan. These results underscore the benefits of integrating spatial hierarchies into machine learning models, enhancing both predictive accuracy and reliability in geospatial modeling. This work introduces a new algorithm to address the pervasive data sparsity issue in existing building stock datasets.

Adams, Daniel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000196950577)↗
DOE OSTI2022

The evolution of the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory in nuclear power research

The events at Three Mile Island in the United States brought about fundamental changes in the ways that simulation would be used in nuclear operations. The need for research simulators was identified to scientifically study human-centered risk and make recommendations for process control system designs. This paper documents the human factors research conducted at the Human Systems and Simulation Laboratory (HSSL) since its inception in 2010 at Idaho National Laboratory. The facility’s primary purposes are to provide support to utilities for system upgrades and to validate modernized control room concepts. In the last decade, however, as nuclear industry needs have evolved, so too have the purposes of the HSSL. Thus, beyond control room modernization, human factors researchers have evaluated the security of nuclear infrastructure from cyber adversaries and evaluated human-in-the-loop simulations for joint operations with an integrated hydrogen generation plant. Lastly, our review presents research using human reliability analysis techniques with data collected from HSSL-based studies and concludes with potential future directions for the HSSL, including severe accident management and advanced control room technologies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enabling Ultra-Compact, Lightweight, Efficient, and Reliable 6.6 kW On-Board Bi-Directional Electric Vehicle Charger with Advanced Topology and Control

The research explored new topologies, control methods, mechanical integration, and thermal management methods for electric vehicle (EV) on-board chargers. The team investigated capacitor-based power conversion, leveraging the high energy densities inherent to capacitive energy storage compared to inductive methods. The proposed topologies simultaneously enabled high power density and high efficiency of the design. The proposed architecture was demonstrated in a 6.6 kW bi-directional charger prototype. The research pursued several directions to improve system performance. Innovative topologies were studied for both the main power conversion stage as well as the single-phase twice-line-frequency energy buffer. To ensure robust and efficient operation, new control methods were developed to integrate these two subsystems. To achieve high power density in the full system solution, the mechanical structure of the charger is highly optimized to maximally fill the converter box volume. In parallel with the mechanical design effort, the converter was packaged with high-performance cooling methods which removed heat from key areas of power dissipation in the converter. The thermal management system was optimized to minimize its weight and volume, ultimately motivating the design of a custom additively manufactured cold-plate. The full system achieves a peak power of 7 kW with less than 0.3% total harmonic distortion (THD) and greater than 0.994 power factor in power factor correction (PFC) operation, corresponding to a total box-volume power density of 47.9 kW/L and gravimetric power density of 24.6 W/g. The system achieves a peak efficiency of 98.9%, with 97.9% efficiency at maximum power.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review of Quantum Computing Technologies in Power System Optimization

As modern power grids increasingly integrate variable renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and energy storage systems, classical optimization techniques are facing unprecedented challenges. This review examines the emerging application of quantum computing to overcome these challenges in power system optimization, including optimal power flow (OPF), unit commitment (UC), economic dispatch (ED), and intelligent switching and topology optimization (IS-TO). Recent research has introduced various quantum methodologies—such as gate-based, annealing-based, variational algorithms, and quantum-inspired algorithms—to address the combinatorial complexity inherent in grid reconfiguration and energy management. The review summaries the quantum algorithms, quantum devices and the power system test cases, highlighting hybrid quantum–classical strategies that leverage the complementary strengths of both paradigms. Some quantum advantages have been observed, including theoretical speedup, accurate simulation results, scalable qubit usage, efficient QUBO mapping. In particular, the review emphasizes the importance of integrating quantum optimization techniques with classical control frameworks, these hybrid approaches demonstrate the potential to improve real-time grid management and operational reliability. A significant portion of the analysis is devoted to the practical limitations of current quantum devices. Present-day quantum hardware, operating in the noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) era, remains highly sensitive to noise and limited in qubit connectivity, which constrains the scale and accuracy of implemented algorithms. The review delves into specific challenges such as the need for qubit-efficient encoding techniques and error mitigation strategies that are critical for handling real-world grid optimization problems. In addition, the work draws attention to the performance discrepancies between theoretical quantum speedups and experimental validations, underscoring the importance of rigorous benchmark studies using representative power grid test cases. In summary, this review highlights both the promise and limitations of quantum computing for power system optimization. It provides a comprehensive overview of the state-of-the-art technologies, categorizes recent advancements in algorithm design, and discusses practical considerations for implementation, and serves as an informative resource on current research. Future research directions include developing robust hybrid frameworks, advancing qubit-efficient formulations, and scaling up experimental demonstrations to confirm the theoretical advantages of quantum methods in large-scale power system operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Inventory Solutions in End-User IT Support

Managing IT equipment by hand is prone to errors and delays, severely impacting operational continuity and productivity. Manual inventory systems often result in time delays, inconsistent record-keeping, equipment shortages, and increased workloads for IT staff. At Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), my internship focused on creating an automated inventory management solution using Microsoft Power Automate and SharePoint Lists. This solution seamlessly integrates with the existing Microsoft 365 infrastructure, thus eliminating the need for additional software purchases or dedicated server space. By providing real-time updates and reducing manual data entry, the new system ensures a more reliable and maintainable approach to IT asset management.

Information Technology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) comprehensively analyzes possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its renewable energy goals while incorporating stakeholder perspectives and advancing energy resilience for all Puerto Ricans. PR100 is a wide-ranging and in-depth examination of Puerto Rico's energy system investment options. The findings are the culmination of two years of stakeholder engagement, scenario modeling, and impact analysis. The PR100 report and Implementation Roadmap contain a range of results and actions that reflect Puerto Rico's priorities around energy justice, resilience, and reliability. Led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the PR100 study leveraged and integrated dozens of best-in-class models and in-depth analyses from researchers across six national laboratories: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (which led the study), along with Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories (which conducted the study). For more information, please see the "PR100 Project Website" resource below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Real Time-Optimal Power Flow-Based Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS)

This project aims to promote lab-proven clean energy technology to commercially scalable versions of the technology, integrate the technology with broader systems, provide extended performance data, and validate the manufacturability and reliability of the technology. The lab-proven technology, RT-OPF DERMS, was developed and validated through previous U.S. Department of Energy-funded efforts, including Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy funding under the Network Optimized Distributed Energy Systems program and Holy-Cross Energy High Impact Project. In the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Network Optimized Distributed Energy Systems project, the RT-OPF DERMS was developed and implemented in multiple hardware platforms, demonstrating its performance and capabilities in the lab and field environments. The technology was also evaluated and matured via a participation in the U.S. Department of Energy I-Corps program, whose goal is to pair teams of researchers with industry mentors for an intensive 2-month training in which the researchers define technology value propositions, conduct customer discovery interviews, and develop viable market pathways for their technologies. These activities indicate the high technology maturity and Technology Readiness Level of the RT-OPF DERMS.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

HydroForecast Long-term: Improving hydropower’s resilience to climate change through accurate climate-scale

With hydrologic patterns and water availability across the globe shifting due to climate change, advancements in hydrologic prediction systems can help significantly reduce the uncertainties that utilities and water supply entities have in their decision making. Understanding and estimating hydrology at the climate scale is critical for managing water resources under changing climate scenarios. This project focuses on integrating state-of-the-art neural network modeling with downscaled climate projections to deliver the reliable water supply projections decades into the future to meet an urgent need from hydropower operators and water utilities. In this Phase 1 DOE SBIR proposal, we developed and validated a theory-guided neural network model, HydroForecast Long-term, for climate-scale hydrology and implemented the model within existing HydroForecast infrastructure. HydroForecast Long-term combines the most accurate streamflow modeling system with a flexible and scalable data architecture to generate water supply projections out to the year 2100. This report illustrates that we have achieved our four objectives: 1) create a prototype of HydroForecast Long-term, building the neural network prediction model, 2) build an automated data input pipeline that processes large amounts of data from the latest global temperature and precipitation climate models; 3) benchmark the accuracy of the hydrologic model over the recent two decades over a large set of diverse basins, and 4) create a set of output visuals and summary metrics informed by customer feedback that connect the data to critical decision points. This work empowers water users to make data-informed decisions supporting a resilient, renewable-powered grid and water system. The results advance the Department of Energy’s mission by addressing critical gaps in water supply planning under climate change.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗